quillius Posted December 11, 2019 #726 Share Posted December 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said: I am still thinking a majority somewhere between 15 and 30 will be in the ball park. I dare say if Boris was offered that today he would bank it Having said that I think there is more room for an improvement on that result than less seats. This looks like the last individual poll before election day. - 11 Dec - Opinium - Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, BRX 2% And new poll of polls from Electoral Calculus, which has hardly changed from the last one. Current Prediction: Conservative majority 46 Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats CON 43.5% 318 43.4% 304 348 396 LAB 41.0% 262 34.3% 180 227 266 LIB 7.6% 12 12.1% 13 13 29 Brexit 0.0% 0 3.1% 0 0 1 Green 1.7% 1 2.3% 0 1 1 SNP 3.1% 35 3.5% 27 41 43 https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html appreciate the predicted is 348 according this but as I said they are rarely that far off the money.....although to be fair they did get 'celebrity get me out of here' wrong this year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted December 11, 2019 #727 Share Posted December 11, 2019 7 hours ago, RabidMongoose said: I dont think all the lying about the NHS being up for sale has had any impact on the polls because only people that want it to be true think it is. But I think the anti-Semitism might have had and impact. The irony. The only people who buy the antisemitism accusations are those who want to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud the mackem Posted December 11, 2019 #728 Share Posted December 11, 2019 8 hours ago, bee said: Not long to go now..... buckle up ..... It's the final countdown... Europe - The Final Countdown (Official Video) In the Blue corner we have the Wurzell Gummige type haircut , in the Red corner we have the Rat looking through a lavatory brush , and the dirty tricks brigade are trying their utmost to back the Rat , while the BBC are the crooked referee . Nil Desperandum . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.A.T.1961 Posted December 11, 2019 #729 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Watchdog issues warning after BBC political editor comments on postal votes. The elections watchdog has warned that it may be an offence to share information obtained at postal vote opening sessions after the BBC’s political editor said she had been told that ballot papers already in painted a “grim” picture for Labour. Laura Kuenssberg said that while parties are not supposed to look at voting papers when they are verified – but not counted – at opening sessions, they do “get a hint” of how they are doing. The video of her remarks, made during an interview on the BBC’s Politics Live programme, was widely shared on social media and appeared to provoke a response from the Electoral Commission. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/watchdog-issues-warning-after-bbc-political-editor-comments-on-postal-votes-38775905.html Berlin says a ‘standard’ EU-UK trade deal can be done in 2020 Germany is optimistic that the EU and U.K. can negotiate a limited free-trade agreement by the end of 2020. A German official said. - "As far as the trade agreement is concerned, I believe it is evident that what is known in Brussels as an off-the-shelf agreement — in other words a standard agreement that has already been negotiated in another context — can be negotiated relatively quickly with the United Kingdom,". https://www.politico.eu/article/berlin-eu-uk-trade-deal-2020/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud the mackem Posted December 11, 2019 #730 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said: If someone could explain to me please why Brexit is the only thing that matters, and explain to me how after Brexit everything will be so much happier? It sees that everyone's so fanatical about Brexit that they really don't care about what plans or policies the Government may have, beyond vague shouting from the rival Party Leaders that they'll pour more billions into the NHS than the other lot. 17 + million people will be happy when Brexit is completed ,as they wish to be governed by the bumbling fools of Britain ,and not the Fascist bumbling fools of Brussels. whichever way it goes have a look at the Zen proverb above . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bee Posted December 11, 2019 Author #731 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, spud the mackem said: In the Blue corner we have the Wurzell Gummige type haircut , in the Red corner we have the Rat looking through a lavatory brush , and the dirty tricks brigade are trying their utmost to back the Rat , while the BBC are the crooked referee . Nil Desperandum . yes British politcs as usual (God help us....) Then we have the Yellow Teams.... Head Girl Jo (Bunty) Swinson who always looks like she has just changed into a nice clean frock after a super game of hockey.. And Nurse Nicola Ratchet who would happily (personally even ) give a lobotomy to anyone who dares to state the obvious... that if Scotland goes into the EU they won't be an independent country... And Nige...(Froggy Farage) he is obviously my favoutie and he does look a bit amphibian... but there's nothing wrong with frogs.... they have the most amazing eye contact and seem to look right into your soul... I went to the tip a while back in summer with some green rubbish and when I got back to my car there was a big frog sitting on the drivers seat...... looking at me with THAT deep look... it ended up living (hiding) in the car for about a week and I had to put food and water in every night for it till I managed to catch it..... but I digress... And then we have Caroline (Leafy) Lucas who is just plain annoying... edit..... sorry @RAyMO and @Aaron2016 ...I nearly forgot about Your Lot... Arlene Foster.... Governess or Matron... what might she be... ? Edited December 11, 2019 by bee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted December 11, 2019 #732 Share Posted December 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, Setton said: The irony. The only people who buy the antisemitism accusations are those who want to believe them. If you look back at my recent posts then where have I asserted that I personally believe the Labour Party to be anti-Semitic? In fact you will find comments where I am critical of how Corbyn has dealt with the situation. Instead of saying `there is no anti-Semitism problem, its just a handful of incidents which the media are trying to hype up into a problem` he has legitimised it instead. I`m against Corbyn purely and simply because he is too far-left, doesnt respect those who want a Hard-Brexit, constantly lies about the NHS being up for sale, and has made unrealistic spending pledges in his manifesto. He is not, nor does he support, anti-Semitism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted December 11, 2019 #733 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, bee said: yes British politcs as usual (God help us....) Then we have the Yellow Teams.... Head Girl Jo (Bunty) Swinson who always looks like she has just changed into a nice clean frock after a super game of hockey.. And Nurse Nicola Ratchet who would happily (personally even ) give a lobotomy to anyone who dares to state the obvious... that if Scotland goes into the EU they won't be an independent country... And Nige...(Froggy Farage) he is obviously my favoutie and he does look a bit amphibian... but there's nothing wrong with frogs.... they have the most amazing eye contact and seem to look right into your soul... I went to the tip a while back in summer with some green rubbish and when I got back to my car there was a big frog sitting on the drivers seat...... looking at me with THAT deep look... it ended up living (hiding) in the car for about a week and I had to put food and water in every night for it till I managed to catch it..... but I digress... And then we have Caroline (Leafy) Lucas who is just plain annoying... When I look at Jo Swinson and notice her teeth I cringe. Rightly or wrongly I think poor personal hygiene and that means for me she has zero charisma. I actually find her to be repulsive. For all we know she might have had a poor upbringing without access to a dentist. But even considering that it might not be her fault, I cannot shake the cringe and repulsion factor. Then there is her constant lying such as her party subverting the Brexit vote, but claiming its everyone else. As a result of that not only is she cringeworthy, not only is she repulsive, she has no credibility either. Hence the collapse in voter support for her party! Edited December 11, 2019 by RabidMongoose 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud the mackem Posted December 11, 2019 #734 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said: If you look back at my recent posts then where have I asserted that I personally believe the Labour Party to be anti-Semitic? In fact you will find comments where I am critical of how Corbyn has dealt with the situation. Instead of saying `there is no anti-Semitism problem, its just a handful of incidents which the media are trying to hype up into a problem` he has legitimised it instead. I`m against Corbyn purely and simply because he is too far-left, doesnt respect those who want a Hard-Brexit, constantly lies about the NHS being up for sale, and has made unrealistic spending pledges in his manifesto. He is not, nor does he support, anti-Semitism. Maybe he does not support Anti-Semitism , but I can't go for any guy who was friendly with the I.R.A. when my son had to walk daily down the Falls Road ,Belfast during his Army service , or any guy who supports terrorists who fire rockets into civilian areas of another Country . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted December 11, 2019 #735 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, spud the mackem said: Maybe he does not support Anti-Semitism , but I can't go for any guy who was friendly with the I.R.A. when my son had to walk daily down the Falls Road ,Belfast during his Army service , or any guy who supports terrorists who fire rockets into civilian areas of another Country . Me too, and I dont agree with him wanting to get rid of Trident or to dismantle are armed forces. I think Corbyn is a dangerous idealistic lunatic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bee Posted December 11, 2019 Author #736 Share Posted December 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, spud the mackem said: 17 + million people will be happy when Brexit is completed ,as they wish to be governed by the bumbling fools of Britain ,and not the Fascist bumbling fools of Brussels. whichever way it goes have a look at the Zen proverb above . never a truer word spoke.... what a bloody shame we are all being held hostage... Leave voters by the Conservatives Party and Remain voters by the Labour Party... How did they manage to wangle that after the abysmal charade in the House of Commons day after boring day... never ending tedium.... annoying people queuing up to destroy the collective mind of the British Population and send us all crazy with millions of words...... cue for a song but I'm going to resist... Maybe Nige should have just Gone For It and stood a BP candidate in every constituency... and then Leave could have voted Brexit Party and Remain could have voted for the Head Girl.. and that could have put a stop to the Con / Lab merry~go~round... But alas.... too late..... and now we are all hostages....as Friday the 13th approaches... pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAyMO Posted December 11, 2019 #737 Share Posted December 11, 2019 45 minutes ago, bee said: dit..... sorry @RAyMO and @Aaron2016 ...I nearly forgot about Your Lot... Arlene Foster.... Governess or Matron... what might she be... ? Wish I could forget about them too. we seem to have gathered across all NI parties those most unfit to be running public offices and offered them as choices to the voters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAyMO Posted December 11, 2019 #738 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said: This looks like the last individual poll before election day. - 11 Dec - Opinium - Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, BRX 2% Opinium is one of those that have been highest for Tories throughout. Their last poll 6/12 was +15 for Tories, this one +12, so agreeing with others that trend has been towards a narrowing of the gap. Tomorrow will tell the tale but I will stick with my earlier prediction Tories to win with overall majority in the region of plus 10 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bee Posted December 11, 2019 Author #739 Share Posted December 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, RAyMO said: Wish I could forget about them too. we seem to have gathered across all NI parties those most unfit to be running public offices and offered them as choices to the voters. The Tolpuddle Martyrs and the Suffragettes and any and all people in our collective history that fought and sometimes died for the Vote and for the Working Class.... are probably turning in their graves... because what you said above could apply to other places as well...... but I don't want to be too harsh because many good people get into politics who want to make life better for their fellow citizens... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAyMO Posted December 11, 2019 #740 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, bee said: but I don't want to be too harsh because many good people get into politics who want to make life better for their fellow citizens that I absolutely agree with - its just that they don't seem to get to positions of leadership. Is Johnson really the best of the Tories? Is Corbyn the best of Labour? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewinn Posted December 11, 2019 #741 Share Posted December 11, 2019 6 hours ago, RoofGardener said: We can but hope ! The BBC thismorning where predicting a Tory majority of just 28 that'll do, a working majority is all we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsnotoutthere Posted December 11, 2019 #742 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said: If someone could explain to me please why Brexit is the only thing that matters, and explain to me how after Brexit everything will be so much happier? It sees that everyone's so fanatical about Brexit that they really don't care about what plans or policies the Government may have, beyond vague shouting from the rival Party Leaders that they'll pour more billions into the NHS than the other lot. Well, the reason that Brexit matters is because we have seen that with all the obstacles put in the way by remainers in a bid to derail the process over the last 4 years businesses have been in a state of limbo and suffering as a result and whats needed is decisive action to see it finished. But I do think that one of the biggest reasons that remainers have put up such a fight is because they're actually worried things will actually turn out better for us after we have left the EU and thus putting a spotlight on all of their fear mongering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAyMO Posted December 11, 2019 #743 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) Nigel Farage's main campaign visit of the day was in Doncaster, where he told supporters the country would be "back in crisis" over Brexit by May next year if the Conservatives win a majority in the election. What goes through this mans head. Why did he stand down candidates if this is what he thinks? and why then are Brexit party supporters voting Tory? Edited December 11, 2019 by RAyMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bee Posted December 11, 2019 Author #744 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RAyMO said: Nigel Farage's main campaign visit of the day was in Doncaster, where he told supporters the country would be "back in crisis" over Brexit by May next year if the Conservatives win a majority in the election. What goes through this mans head. Why did he stand down candidates if this is what he thinks? and why then are Brexit party supporters voting Tory? because we are all hostages to the two party system............ again........like I said earlier... I think Nige wants Leave Voters to vote in the Brexit Party (where they stand) so they can have input and the balance of power and at some point get No Deal / Clean Break - back on the table... Farage had his hand forced because Johnson wouldn't go for a Leave Alliance... and it would have seriously split the Leave Vote letting Corbyn and a 2nd referendum in... But there is a bit of chance of that happening with a Lab / LibDem / SNP coalition anyway... I said BIT.... because I have said for a while that this election isn't in the bag ...IMO But we shall see how it goes... What about this scenario... we have a repeat of 2017 and the DUP hold the balance of power and they force a No Deal Brexit... ...... (dunno if that's within the realms of possibility) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted December 11, 2019 #745 Share Posted December 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, bee said: because we are all hostages to the two party system............ again........like I said earlier... I think Nige wants Leave Voters to vote in the Brexit Party (where they stand) so they can have input and the balance of power and at some point get No Deal / Clean Break - back on the table... Farage had his hand forced because Johnson wouldn't go for a Leave Alliance... and it would have seriously split the Leave Vote letting Corbyn and a 2nd referendum in... But there is a bit of chance of that happening with a Lab / LibDem / SNP coalition anyway... I said BIT.... because I have said for a while that this election isn't in the bag ...IMO But we shall see how it goes... What about this scenario... we have a repeat of 2017 and the DUP hold the balance of power and they force a No Deal Brexit... ...... (dunno if that's within the realms of possibility) The polling is not done on the level of a constituency but of the nation, so inaccuracies exist. For example, we know that Sunderland is poor, that its traditionally a Labour area, but at the same time was heavily for Brexit. So the Tories are unlikely to win that seat and the Brexit Party would be clear favourites. In fact, I think Tory supporters would vote tactically in that area and place their X`s in the Brexit Party box. Tory + DUP + Brexit Party and we are getting a No Deal!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoofGardener Posted December 11, 2019 #746 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Well, you can all shut up now. Tomorrow is Erection Day ! Meanwhile, I am cooking a stuffed baked potato, with chicken ? Have I ever explained my Stuffed Baked Potato ? You bake a potato untill the skin is REALLY crispy. Then you cut it i half, scoop all the potato out, mix it with cottage cheese, cream cheese. and perhaps a sprinking of 'erbs. Then you scoop all of that back INTO the potato skins (there will be a surplus, more on this later), grate cheese over it, and then grill it for 5 minutes. (the surplus ? Well, you accumulate it in the fridge, and then eventually sprinkle it with flour, and turn it into Grilled Potato Cakes. ) You know, the UK media has to shut up about the election on election day itself. So for the whole of tomorrow there will be no UK-based media reports. So I think you should consider my recipe for Baked Stuffed Potato's instead. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted December 11, 2019 #747 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, RoofGardener said: Well, you can all shut up now. Tomorrow is Erection Day ! Meanwhile, I am cooking a stuffed baked potato, with chicken ? Have I ever explained my Stuffed Baked Potato ? You bake a potato untill the skin is REALLY crispy. Then you cut it i half, scoop all the potato out, mix it with cottage cheese, cream cheese. and perhaps a sprinking of 'erbs. Then you scoop all of that back INTO the potato skins (there will be a surplus, more on this later), grate cheese over it, and then grill it for 5 minutes. (the surplus ? Well, you accumulate it in the fridge, and then eventually sprinkle it with flour, and turn it into Grilled Potato Cakes. ) You know, the UK media has to shut up about the election on election day itself. So for the whole of tomorrow there will be no UK-based media reports. So I think you should consider my recipe for Baked Stuffed Potato's instead. Erection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+and-then Posted December 11, 2019 #748 Share Posted December 11, 2019 On 12/9/2019 at 1:01 PM, stevewinn said: no one believes them no more. Yes, indeed! There's a LOT of that going around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bee Posted December 11, 2019 Author #749 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 21 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said: The polling is not done on the level of a constituency but of the nation, so inaccuracies exist. For example, we know that Sunderland is poor, that its traditionally a Labour area, but at the same time was heavily for Brexit. So the Tories are unlikely to win that seat and the Brexit Party would be clear favourites. In fact, I think Tory supporters would vote tactically in that area and place their X`s in the Brexit Party box. Tory + DUP + Brexit Party and we are getting a No Deal!!!! I hope you are right...... because if you aren't then the Leave vote will be horribly split there... I caught something on Radio 2 when I was in the car a couple of days ago... the Jeremy Vine show.. and the discussion was about tactical voting and one bloke was breaking the tactical voting for Leave voters and he seemed to think that just one seat was pretty certain for the Brexit Party and was saying that in the other constituencies Leave voters should vote tory because BP couldn't win...... but we ARE talking about the BBC here so who knows..... at the time I thought that the most feared person in modern politics was Nigel Farage... more than Corbyn... and the last thing the establishment want is Nige rocking the boat.. Edited December 11, 2019 by bee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoofGardener Posted December 11, 2019 #750 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said: Erection? Freudian slip ? Nontheless, what do you think about the recipe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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