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RoofGardener

Was Trump correct over Iran ?

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RoofGardener

Well well well. There was much trenchant criticism of President Trump in these Fora for pulling out of the agreement with Iran over nuclear material. 

But it appears that the Iranians WHERE up to no good, and are continuing to get up to no good. An IAEA inspector was refused access to an Iranian nuclear facility, and was then detained and her passport confiscated. Why on earth  would Iran do this unless it had something to hide ? 

There is also the issue of 'missing' nuclear fuel ? 

"....The board of governors also discussed the "detection of potentially undeclared nuclear material" in Iran. Iran has reportedly failed to co-operate with an investigation into how traces of uranium were found at a site in the Turquzabad area of Tehran, where Israel said there was a "secret atomic warehouse".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50329647

 Perhaps President Trumps instincts - that the Iranians where cheating .. had some basis after all ? :)  

Edited by RoofGardener
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Dumbledore the Awesome

Ah, the Wicked Iranians are back. Pres Trump needs another Military Confrontation with a Foreign Regime in time for the election, does he. 

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joc
9 minutes ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

Ah, the Wicked Iranians are back. Pres Trump needs another Military Confrontation with a Foreign Regime in time for the election, does he. 

I think you are confusing Trump with some of our past presidents.  Carter maybe....the debaucle in the desert.  Or Clinton perhaps...bombing the Aspirin Factory.  What war has Trump started as president?  That's right...he decimated ISIS but he did not start that war.  Anyone who trusts the Iranians is a fool.  Obviously...Trump...no fool.

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ExpandMyMind
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Well well well. There was much trenchant criticism of President Trump in these Fora for pulling out of the agreement with Iran over nuclear material. 

But it appears that the Iranians WHERE up to no good, and are continuing to get up to no good. An IAEA inspector was refused access to an Iranian nuclear facility, and was then detained and her passport confiscated. Why on earth  would Iran do this unless it had something to hide ? 

There is also the issue of 'missing' nuclear fuel ? 

"....The board of governors also discussed the "detection of potentially undeclared nuclear material" in Iran. Iran has reportedly failed to co-operate with an investigation into how traces of uranium were found at a site in the Turquzabad area of Tehran, where Israel said there was a "secret atomic warehouse".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50329647

 Perhaps President Trumps instincts - that the Iranians where cheating .. had some basis after all ? :)  

Your post makes it sound like this happened long ago and that it informed Trump's decision. It happened last week.

So the real story is 'Iran stops adhering to nuclear deal that the US pulled out of last year'.

I think you're on to something here, Roof.

Edited by ExpandMyMind
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Desertrat56
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Well well well. There was much trenchant criticism of President Trump in these Fora for pulling out of the agreement with Iran over nuclear material. 

But it appears that the Iranians WHERE up to no good, and are continuing to get up to no good. An IAEA inspector was refused access to an Iranian nuclear facility, and was then detained and her passport confiscated. Why on earth  would Iran do this unless it had something to hide ? 

There is also the issue of 'missing' nuclear fuel ? 

"....The board of governors also discussed the "detection of potentially undeclared nuclear material" in Iran. Iran has reportedly failed to co-operate with an investigation into how traces of uranium were found at a site in the Turquzabad area of Tehran, where Israel said there was a "secret atomic warehouse".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50329647

 Perhaps President Trumps instincts - that the Iranians where cheating .. had some basis after all ? :)  

Or, maybe it was because she was a woman in a position of authority that was not their authority.

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crookedspiral
1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

So the real story is 'Iran stops adhering to nuclear deal that the US pulled out of last year'.

There are some people who expect Iran to comply to a nuclear deal that no longer exist.

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DarkHunter
42 minutes ago, crookedspiral said:

There are some people who expect Iran to comply to a nuclear deal that no longer exist.

The nuclear deal technically still exist between Iran, Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, and the EU.  America withdrawing from the deal didnt actually end it.  

That is all technical and legal since UK, France, Germany, and the EU arent willing to trade the American market for the Iranian market but they could if they really wanted to.  

Even Russia has expressed concern over Iran beginning enrichment at the Fordo nuclear facility so the nuclear deal might not be surviving much longer anyway.

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Setton

My God! Iran isn't letting inspectors check if it's following a DEAL after Trump TORE it up?! 

It's doing exactly what IS said it would once THAT deal was broken?! 

This is SHOCKING, SHOCKING I tell you! 

 

 

 

 

Not sure what the random caps are about but seems to be the style here. 

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Setton
1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

The nuclear deal technically still exist between Iran, Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, and the EU.  America withdrawing from the deal didnt actually end it.  

Except that Iran clearly said they wouldn't be bound by it once the US pulled out, unless the other countries made up for it. We haven't, so Iran isn't. 

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Desertrat56
10 minutes ago, Setton said:

My God! Iran isn't letting inspectors check if it's following a DEAL after Trump TORE it up?! 

It's doing exactly what IS said it would once THAT deal was broken?! 

This is SHOCKING, SHOCKING I tell you! 

 

 

 

 

Not sure what the random caps are about but seems to be the style here. 

Wait!  Was the deal solely with the U.S. or was it with the U.N.?  Why would inspectors be sent in after Trump took us out of that deal, if it was made only with the U.S.?

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and then
4 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

Ah, the Wicked Iranians are back. Pres Trump needs another Military Confrontation with a Foreign Regime in time for the election, does he. 

Any comments on the factual basis of his post or do you just ignore and joke to cover your apathy and partisanship?  Basically, your argument is the same old, Orange Man Bad/USA to blame and everyone else is pure as the new blown snow.  It becomes a little transparent after a while there, Dumbleedore...  I realize you could NEVER be wrong about any topic but what if just this once...you were?  How do you blame the US for Iran using nukes to blackmail the gulf states?  I realize it would still be the old, tired approach you're using now but I think you'd find less support when even people from your little camp have their jobs shuttered due to fuel price uncertainty.  You're becoming tiresome and predictable and that's a bad look for someone who prides themselves on their wit.

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RoofGardener
4 hours ago, Setton said:

My God! Iran isn't letting inspectors check if it's following a DEAL after Trump TORE it up?! 

It's doing exactly what IS said it would once THAT deal was broken?! 

This is SHOCKING, SHOCKING I tell you! ot sure what the random caps are about but seems to be the style here. 

 @Setton. The USA was just one partner in this agreement. The EU promised to make up any shortuall that would arise from the USA pulling out. 

The POINT is that Iran was already in breach of the deal, PRIOR to the USA pulling out. 

Or to put it another way... Trump realised that Iran was breaching the deal WHOLESALE, and pulled out. 

And then Iran.. like the baby who has its lollypop removed from its pram... screamed and wept and moaned. The USA, recognised the bleating for what it was... a cover up for a long-term breach of the agreement... unlike the European Union, which was too busy saying "Oh gosh.. we MUSTN'T upset the Muslims..... . 

I find the whole thing SICKENING. The European Union "signed" a deal with Iran (which never actually SIGNED the treaty, lest we forget). which was an abject surrender document on a par - if not actually worse .. then Chamberlain's "Munich Agreement" ! :( 

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Setton
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

The POINT is that Iran was already in breach of the deal, PRIOR to the USA pulling out. 

Really. Evidence please. 

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Setton
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

The USA was just one partner in this agreement. The EU promised to make up any shortuall that would arise from the USA pulling out. 

And the EU has not been able to do so. So Iran has stopped following the agreement. 

Is that good? No. 

Can you blame them? Not really. 

Edited by Setton
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Setton
3 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

Wait!  Was the deal solely with the U.S. or was it with the U.N.?  Why would inspectors be sent in after Trump took us out of that deal, if it was made only with the U.S.?

It was between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. 

It was never only with the US but once the US broke the deal and threatened the other countries into being unable to support it, of course Iran was never going to stick to it. 

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Desertrat56
3 minutes ago, Setton said:

It was between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. 

It was never only with the US but once the US broke the deal and threatened the other countries into being unable to support it, of course Iran was never going to stick to it. 

Well, were they really sticking to the deal anyway?  And the U.S. (one country out of 5 plus the EU) leaving should not have affected the deal.  Something like this is just going to go to that narcissists head. 

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Setton
10 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Well, were they really sticking to the deal anyway? 

Until someone can produce evidence to the contrary (which no one has), we must assume so. 

Quote

And the U.S. (one country out of 5 plus the EU) leaving should not have affected the deal.

Except that the US then threatened all the other signatories with sanctions if they continued to stick to the deal. 

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Desertrat56
Just now, Setton said:

Until someone can produce evidence to the contrary (which no one has), we must assume so. 

Except that the US then threatened all the other signatories with sanctions if they continued to stick to the deal. 

That was an asinine thing to do and hopefully we will survive the next year or 5 years if it comes to that.

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Black Red Devil

Quite rich to expect Iran to abide to a deal that's no longer valid and thanks to the brainless decision by Trump and his subservient allies, Iran is now producing 5kg of enriched Uranium per day with modern centrifuges. 

They anticipate they may be able to develop a nuke within a year and when you bring into the equation Russia's ever growing preponderant role and presence in the region, I doubt the US will risk a serious conflict by striking or allowing Israel to do so.  Similar to how nobody could stop North Korea from developing nukes thanks to China's protection.

The consequences of a nuclear Iran should be blamed totally on Trump, Netanyahu and the gutless European leaders who forfeited maybe not a perfect deal (JCPOA) but one they could work on if only greedy petrodollars didn't get in the way.

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DarkHunter
16 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

Quite rich to expect Iran to abide to a deal that's no longer valid and thanks to the brainless decision by Trump and his subservient allies, Iran is now producing 5kg of enriched Uranium per day with modern centrifuges. 

They anticipate they may be able to develop a nuke within a year and when you bring into the equation Russia's ever growing preponderant role and presence in the region, I doubt the US will risk a serious conflict by striking or allowing Israel to do so.  Similar to how nobody could stop North Korea from developing nukes thanks to China's protection.

The consequences of a nuclear Iran should be blamed totally on Trump, Netanyahu and the gutless European leaders who forfeited maybe not a perfect deal (JCPOA) but one they could work on if only greedy petrodollars didn't get in the way.

link

Russia and Iran are allies of covience and nothing more, both are competing to be the dominant power in central Asia.  Russia isnt going to be very interested in Iran becoming a nuclear power and even now their alliance is starting to fray, proof being Russia raising concern over enrichment beginning in Fordo and having talks with Turkey over the future of Syria in Sochi without Iran even being present for the talks along with letting Israel freely bomb Iranian targets in Syria for months.

North Korea was a completely different situation and had less to do with China protecting North Korea and more of the fact that Seoul is 50 km from the DMZ and North Korea has enough conventional artillery, rockets, and missiles to cause hundreds of thousands to over a million civilian casualties within an hour or so of being attacked by targeting Seoul, one of the world's most densely populated cities, alone.

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Black Red Devil
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Russia and Iran are allies of covience and nothing more, both are competing to be the dominant power in central Asia.  Russia isnt going to be very interested in Iran becoming a nuclear power and even now their alliance is starting to fray, proof being Russia raising concern over enrichment beginning in Fordo and having talks with Turkey over the future of Syria in Sochi without Iran even being present for the talks along with letting Israel freely bomb Iranian targets in Syria for months.

North Korea was a completely different situation and had less to do with China protecting North Korea and more of the fact that Seoul is 50 km from the DMZ and North Korea has enough conventional artillery, rockets, and missiles to cause hundreds of thousands to over a million civilian casualties within an hour or so of being attacked by targeting Seoul, one of the world's most densely populated cities, alone.

Why would Russia need to involve Iran in talks with Turkey over Syria? Nobody cares or even considers Hezbolah's role as an influence and the State of Iran has nothing to do with the conflict between Turkey and Kurds in Syria.

What you seem to be missing in your analysis is the deep financial influence and interests involved in the region.  In fact many political experts believe (and I do to) the reason for the Syrian conflict has always been about overthrowing Assad because of his refusal to allow pipelines to travel through Syria.

In brief, Russian Gazprom provides most of the natural gas (80%) that goes to the richest regional consumer in the world (after the US), Europe.  Natural gas is the future and the pipelines go via the Ukraine and or Georgia which is the reason Putin has a strong grip on both these countries.  This allows Putin to influence countries relying on Russian natural gas and this didn't sit well with the Europeans who wanted alternative gas supplies.  Cometh the pipeline suggestions from Iran and Qatar.  The Qatar pipeline was no good because Putin couldn't exert influence but the one from Iran had his blessings.  But without Assad's approval nothing was going to happen which wasn't a problem for Putin because, as mentioned, Russia was already supplying 80% to Europe so the status quo sat well with him.  At worse, the pipeline from Iran would still allow him to keep influence over the Europeans.

Therefore when you suggest Russia isn't very interested in what happens to Iran I'm afraid you're missing the point because the alternative to Iran's pipeline into Europe, as an alternative to Gazprom's, is the one from Qatar (backed by the US).

Edited by Black Red Devil

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crookedspiral
10 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

The nuclear deal technically still exist between Iran, Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, and the EU.  America withdrawing from the deal didnt actually end it.  

That is all technical and legal since UK, France, Germany, and the EU arent willing to trade the American market for the Iranian market but they could if they really wanted to.  

Since when the technical and legal is a matter of concern for international powers? Of course Iran isn't going to stick with a one-sided deal. It's virtually impossible for this Nuclear deal to exist with the U.S. on one hand imposing crippling sanctions on Iran and the other pressuring Europe to leave it.

Edited by crookedspiral
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DarkHunter
42 minutes ago, crookedspiral said:

Since when the technical and legal is a matter of concern for international powers? Of course Iran isn't going to stick with a one-sided deal. It's virtually impossible for this Nuclear deal to exist with the U.S. on one hand imposing crippling sanctions on Iran and the other pressuring Europe to leave it.

But the inverse is also true, why should America stick to a deal that gave Iran massive wealth while not requiring them to give up any of its nuclear ambitions as every limitation had sunset clauses that only lasted between 10 to 15 years on average.

Ultimately it was a bad deal for America and it has shown the European countries never cared if Iran got nuclear weapons or not but only on what wealth they could get from trading with Iran regardless of the consequences.

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and then
2 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

In brief, Russian Gazprom provides most of the natural gas (80%) that goes to the richest regional consumer in the world (after the US), Europe.

Ever heard of the Leviathan field?  

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and then
1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

But the inverse is also true, why should America stick to a deal that gave Iran massive wealth while not requiring them to give up any of its nuclear ambitions as every limitation had sunset clauses that only lasted between 10 to 15 years on average.

Ultimately it was a bad deal for America and it has shown the European countries never cared if Iran got nuclear weapons or not but only on what wealth they could get from trading with Iran regardless of the consequences.

Yep and the gutless scum would then have run home to their old uncle sucker to protect them when the Iranians threatened them for better deals or even outright extortion.  The EU needs to put it's big boy pants on and handle their own business.  With any luck, Israel will find the will to do a widespread EMP-type assault against Iran's major cities and then take out their nuclear infrastructure in detail, at their convenience.

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