governor’s race in Louisiana

[Unusual Tournament]

3 minutes ago, and then said:

That's part of the disconnect the anti-Trump types struggle with.  He has been blustering and riffing in front of audiences for years and they have no trouble understanding him for who he is.  When your first instinct is to always try to find a way to denigrate the man then you will be tuned to listening to him like a lawyer.  He isn't a lawyer.  He's an entertainer with an outsized ego and a love for this country.  His supporters understand that and accept the noise as the cost of doing good things for the country.  

If you take everything a man says and always inspect it under a microscope, parsing every word and scrutinizing every act to find criminality, you just might be obsessed.  And here's the thing... it doesn't seem to bother the man at all.  I used to think that was an act but after 3 years I believe he really IS that impervious to the hate.  He actually seems to get energy from it.  Damnedest thing I've ever seen.

Well if the recent local elections in Pennsylvania and Kentucky are anything to go by the Trump brand is losing its lustre. People are doing just that. They starting to scrutinise what he says. and why shouldn't they. Politicians rise and fall on what they can deliver. Has Trump delivered? No he has not and the impeachment trial is wearing him down. To boot he's twittering is also having an effect. But the biggest thing you miss is that republicans are starting to see him as a liability. Why won't you talk about that ? 

[+and-then]

Just now, Captain Risky said:

LOL... look buddy I'm not going away. Either work in with me or suffer. We're talking about Trump. Trump's reelection campaign doesn't look good. You can pretend it doesn't matter and you and can talk about political balance all you like. If i can see through Trumps lies and exaggerations, the electorate can also. and it seems they have. Everything is a see saw. I don't see how American democracy is at risk from a Trump loss. There's a season for everything and its the democrats spring. Will the collage system fall. No i don't think so but the shifting states that voted Trump in 2016 don't look like they'll vote for him again. Louisiana might stay red but the fact that it looks like its struggling to support Trump is telling.  

I'm not asking you to go anywhere.  I think you don't understand the electorate of this country as well as you think and it's because you consume a very unbalanced media view.  I'm pretty sure you'll be let down next year and you aren't even willing to try to understand why.  Time will tell.  I can say this without fear of being disputed by the facts... when the Left retake power they are going to find that their formerly docile brethren on the Right aren't going to behave as they did under Obama.  The "resistance" we've seen against a duly elected choice of the majority of voters in the majority of states is going to become the norm.  

The Orange man, even if he leaves in 12 months, will have massively reapportioned the Federal Bench with Conservative judges.  That's a legacy even the media can't harm.  

[+and-then]

Just now, Captain Risky said:

the Trump brand is losing its lustre.

We'll see, won't we?  A LOT of people in 2016 thought they'd defeated him many times.  He just kept coming through it all.  Remember the polls and predictions at the close of polling when the NYT gae HRC a 98% chance to win?  A lot of ink was spilled trying to explain what happened and the consensus seemed to be that people lied to pollsters.  They didn't want to face the wrath of loud neighbors who hated Trump so they said one thing and they voted another.  Meanwhile, he keeps appointing conservatives to the bench in record numbers and a solid conservative majority in the Senate is rubber stamping them all.  If the notorious RBG ever assumes room temperature he'll get another SCOTUS appointment as well.  

Oh well.  One thing sure, the Left will never stop their assault and he'll never give up.  At least we won't be bored  

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, and then said:

I'm not asking you to go anywhere.  I think you don't understand the electorate of this country as well as you think and it's because you consume a very unbalanced media view.  I'm pretty sure you'll be let down next year and you aren't even willing to try to understand why.  Time will tell.  I can say this without fear of being disputed by the facts... when the Left retake power they are going to find that their formerly docile brethren on the Right aren't going to behave as they did under Obama.  The "resistance" we've seen against a duly elected choice of the majority of voters in the majority of states is going to become the norm.  

The Orange man, even if he leaves in 12 months, will have massively reapportioned the Federal Bench with Conservative judges.  That's a legacy even the media can't harm.  

What's there to understand. Everywhere Trump goes to campaign he loses. And i agree with you about Trump's legacy. It will take not just the democrats to clean the mess and restore some dignity to the White House but also the republicans. This is one of those cringeworthy moments for the republicans. The democrats had Carter and you have Trump. Sure they're democrats that think Carter was a great president just like they're are republicans like yourself they will go to the grave singing Trumps praise. Trump certainly stacked the federal bench with conservative judges. The legacy is his. Will it be enough to wash away the what he's done to American democracy ? I don't think so.  

[Unusual Tournament]

2 minutes ago, and then said:

We'll see, won't we?  A LOT of people in 2016 thought they'd defeated him many times.  He just kept coming through it all.  Remember the polls and predictions at the close of polling when the NYT gae HRC a 98% chance to win?  A lot of ink was spilled trying to explain what happened and the consensus seemed to be that people lied to pollsters.  They didn't want to face the wrath of loud neighbors who hated Trump so they said one thing and they voted another.  Meanwhile, he keeps appointing conservatives to the bench in record numbers and a solid conservative majority in the Senate is rubber stamping them all.  If the notorious RBG ever assumes room temperature he'll get another SCOTUS appointment as well.  

Oh well.  One thing sure, the Left will never stop their assault and he'll never give up.  At least we won't be bored  

I can't imagine that the left will ever forget or forgive Trump. Trump got elected before the electorate realised what a goof he is. Now that they know its a different story. 

[+and-then]

7 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

But the biggest thing you miss is that republicans are starting to see him as a liability. Why won't you talk about that ? 

Because it isn't factual.  trump isn't a Republican and Republicans in very large numbers hate the man and would cheerfully vote to convict him in the Senate trial IF they could win their next election afterward.  They can't and they know it.  You are kidding yourself if you think trump will be removed by Impeachment.  All the Left can do is drag the process out and annoy the hell out of people who are already sick of the idiocy.  Those who could be convinced that he should be removed have already been convinced.  It just isn't going to be enough.  What it may well do is harden his support and even cause some independents to decide he's being steamrolled without any real proof of wrongdoing.   THAT will not bode well for the Democrats next year.

[+and-then]

1 minute ago, Captain Risky said:

Now that they know its a different story. 

Keep livin' the dream man   

Maye the next outrage porn will take him down for sure ...

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, and then said:

Because it isn't factual.  trump isn't a Republican and Republicans in very large numbers hate the man and would cheerfully vote to convict him in the Senate trial IF they could win their next election afterward.  They can't and they know it.  You are kidding yourself if you think trump will be removed by Impeachment.  All the Left can do is drag the process out and annoy the hell out of people who are already sick of the idiocy.  Those who could be convinced that he should be removed have already been convinced.  It just isn't going to be enough.  What it may well do is harden his support and even cause some independents to decide he's being steamrolled without any real proof of wrongdoing.   THAT will not bode well for the Democrats next year.

Trump got voted in on a republican ticket by republican voters. Its the republicans that have his future in their hands. They can support the impeachment and remove him if they feel so. They won't because their future and tons are tied to his. This isn't some exoneration just a matter of survival.

When Trump comes out and says his daughter created 14 million jobs when the BoS clearly states that she did not alarm bells should be ringing. How are the democrats wrong in wanting to remove a liar. Is nit Trump a liar?  

[+Not A Rockstar]

30 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Well you can still like me, even if i have an opposing view. Trump is very economical with the truth. If you wanna believe him thats okay. But when Trump makes claims that his daughter Ivanka created 14 million jobs it sorta puts everything Trump says under the microscope.  

I don't believe what he said there or many other places. I don't believe most politicians, actually. I don't obsess about it either. If you wish to, along with a very loud minority out there, go ahead. The results in Louisiana are because that's how we voted, not that Trump came to town and a few folks went to see his rally. I didn't go, and I don't know anyone who did go, though we're all pretty conservative.

I think John Bel may pull it out because he is so conservative, but it will be close. I note that in every other election here tonight I glanced over the only dems winning are running against other dems or indies.

Gov race aside, the dems aren't doing well against reps. Go look at the link I gave. It is all there, don't take my word for it. Being conservative doesn't mean you are a trumper or ignorant or incapable of thinking for yourself. Sometimes people feel safer with a senate run by the party opposite the Governor for better control. Same as in DC. Judging by the reps wining, I am feeling John Bel may pull it off. Dunno yet. NOLA will give him a large boost for sure. 

We'll see.

[Unusual Tournament]

5 minutes ago, and then said:

Keep livin' the dream man   

Maye the next outrage porn will take him down for sure ...

LOL. 

[DarkHunter]

34 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

So what your saying is that Trump hasnt suffered any visible signs of damage from 3 years ago? 

Not any significant damage that is going to matter in a climate so politically polarized.

One thing I notice is you keep bringing up Pennsylvania as some kind of evidence of Trump losing support and besides from the special election the only thing I can think of is the results of the 2018 house of representatives which saw Pennsylvania elect more Democrats then Republicans but there is a lot of back story that involves a lot of questionably legal things.

In case anyone is interested in knowing what happened about a year before the 2018 elections a group of democratic activists sued the state of Pennsylvania for the house of representatives districts being overly gerrymandered to favor the Republicans.  The trial was done in the Pennsylvania supreme court, which has Democrat majority justices, and they ruled in favor of the activists and required that the districts be redrawn to be more fair and be approved by the Pennsylvanian governor.  Drawing the districts under Pennsylvania law falls very clearly under the Pennsylvania legislature which is Republican controlled and has been for a long time and they drew 3 different district maps if I remember correctly that were all rejected by the Pennsylvanian governor, who is a Democrat.  After the third rejected map with the federal elections if I remember correctly only being about 6 months away the Pennsylvania supreme court ruled for the governor to draw the district map which he did to heavily favor democrats.

There was talks of taking what was a questionable ruling, the Pennsylvania constitution makes it perfectly clear the legislature is suppose to draw the district map and not the governor to the supreme court of the united states but they made it clear they would refuse to hear the case as it was a state issue and not a federal issue.  

Of course the whole 2018 district remapping will be completely irrelevant soon as a new census is to be done in 2020 which means a new redrawing of the districts by the still controlled Republican legislature but without needing the governor to approve.

Tends to be really hard to campaign when you dont know what your district will be

Edited November 17, 2019 by DarkHunter

[+Not A Rockstar]

dang they are neck and neck with 80% counted LOL.

[Unusual Tournament]

2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Not any significant damage that is going to matter in a climate so politically polarized.

One thing I notice is you keep bringing up Pennsylvania as some kind of evidence of Trump losing support and besides from the special election the only thing I can think of is the results of the 2018 house of representatives which saw Pennsylvania elect more Democrats then Republicans but there is a lot of back story that involves a lot of questionably legal things.

In case anyone is interested in knowing what happened about a year before the 2018 elections a group of democratic activists sued the state of Pennsylvania for the house of representatives districts being overly gerrymandered to favor the Republicans.  The trial was done in the Pennsylvania supreme court, which has Democrat majority justices, and they ruled in favor of the activists and required that the districts be redrawn to be more fair and be approved by the Pennsylvanian governor.  Drawing the districts under Pennsylvania law falls very clearly under the Pennsylvania legislature which is Republican controlled and has been for a long time and they drew 3 different district maps if I remember correctly that were all rejected by the Pennsylvanian governor, who is a Democrat.  After the third rejected map with the federal elections if I remember correctly only being about 6 months away the Pennsylvania supreme court ruled for the governor to draw the district map which he did to heavily favor democrats.

There was talks of taking what was a questionable ruling, the Pennsylvania constitution makes it perfectly clear the legislature is suppose to draw the district map and not the governor to the supreme court of the united states but they made it clear they would refuse to hear the case as it was a state issue and not a federal issue.  

Of course the whole 2018 district remapping will be completely irrelevant soon as a new census is to be done in 2020 which means a new redrawing of the districts by the still controlled Republican legislature but without needing the governor to approve.

Isn't Pennsylvania one of the key swing states that gave Trump victory? Doesn't it stand to reason that the tide is turning.

[+Not A Rockstar]

4 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Isn't Pennsylvania one of the key swing states that gave Trump victory? Doesn't it stand to reason that the tide is turning.

Gerrymandered districts is artificial. Each vote will count toward the electoral votes irrespective of districts in 2020. The "stands to reason" of the left is not the same "stands to reason" of the right. 

There is no sound way to make such a call about how the state is leaning a year from now. 

Like in Louisiana, it is less about Trump and more about a general lack of rancor against John Bel which might win him this election, though dang it is staying close and Eddie is still staying ahead by the numbers. TBH I am a bit surprised if Eddie wins. I knew it was close but figured John Bel would win by a nose. We will soon see how good of a political watcher I am.

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, Not A Rockstar said:

Gerrymandered districts is artificial. Each vote will count toward the electoral votes irrespective of districts in 2020. The "stands to reason" of the left is not the same "stands to reason" of the right. 

There is no sound way to make such a call about how the state is leaning a year from now. 

Like in Louisiana, it is less about Trump and more about a general lack of rancor against John Bel which might win him this election, though dang it is staying close and Eddie is still staying ahead by the numbers. TBH I am a bit surprised if Eddie wins. I knew it was close but figured John Bel would win by a nose. We will soon see how good of a political watcher I am.

In the absence of the popular vote Trump won on Gerrymandering. He'll need it again it seems. 

[DarkHunter]

18 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Isn't Pennsylvania one of the key swing states that gave Trump victory? Doesn't it stand to reason that the tide is turning.

The Democrats only won a majority of house seats cause of a decently heavily gerrymandered map that wasnt known to anyone running for election till about 5 months before the election.

As long as a party have about 40% support in a state it's really easy to gerrymander it to cause them to have a majority if they draw the district lines let alone a state like Pennsylvania where the true difference between the two parties is significantly closer.  Even then no matter how Pennsylvanian districts are drawn it would have no effect on the presidental election.

Also Trump is definitely going to win Pennsylvania again and by a much larger margin then last time as he now has near close to complete support of the coal miners now.

Essentially the coal miners used to vote heavily Democrat because Democrats backed the unions and the coal miners heavily support the coal miners union for pretty obvious reasons.  But that all changed after 2 big events, the first being that the coal miners feel betrayed by the Democrats and the leadership of the coal miners union, amazing what donating millions of dollars to Obama's election campaign then sending out letters about a month after he wins the election saying that it's almost certain benefits and pensions will be cut due to lack of funds will do to support.  The second thing, and its extremely devious, but the Republicans were able to gain control of the coal miners health care narrative and made it look like the Democrats were the ones risking their insurance while making it look like the Republicans were the ones fighting for them to keep it, then shortly after Trump got elected the whole matter was resolved completely.

In case anyone doesnt know in WW2 the federal government in desperate need of coal made a deal with the coal miners promising them health care in perpetuity in return for becoming miners.  Near the end of Obama's presidency the funds set aside for this started to run out and created a mini crisis of the coal miners potentially losing their health care.

5 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

In the absence of the popular vote Trump won on Gerrymandering. He'll need it again it seems. 

Trump didnt win on gerrymandering, Trump won by winning a majority of the votes in a majority of the states weighed by the population of the states.

Edited November 17, 2019 by DarkHunter

[+Not A Rockstar]

4 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

In the absence of the popular vote Trump won on Gerrymandering. He'll need it again it seems. 

explain exactly how he did this in 2016 as a candidate, or else admit you do not understand what gerrymandering is.

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

The Democrats only won a majority of house seats cause of a decently heavily gerrymandered map that wasnt known to anyone running for election till about 5 months before the election.

As long as a party have about 40% support in a state it's really easy to gerrymander it to cause them to have a majority if they draw the district lines let alone a state like Pennsylvania where the true difference between the two parties is significantly closer.  Even then no matter how Pennsylvanian districts are drawn it would have no effect on the presidental election.

Also Trump is definitely going to win Pennsylvania again and by a much larger margin then last time as he now has near close to complete support of the coal miners now.

Essentially the coal miners used to vote heavily Democrat because Democrats backed the unions and the coal miners heavily support the coal miners union for pretty obvious reasons.  But that all changed after 2 big events, the first being that the coal miners feel betrayed by the Democrats and the leadership of the coal miners union, amazing what donating millions of dollars to Obama's election campaign then sending out letters about a month after he wins the election saying that it's almost certain benefits and pensions will be cut due to lack of funds will do to support.  The second thing, and its extremely devious, but the Republicans were able to gain control of the coal miners health care narrative and made it look like the Democrats were the ones risking their insurance while making it look like the were the ones Republicans fighting for them to keep it, then shortly after Trump got elected the whole matter was resolved completely.

In case anyone doesnt know in WW2 the federal government in desperate need of coal made a deal with the coal miners promising them health care in perpetuity in return for becoming miners.  Near the end of Obama's presidency the funds set aside for this started to run out and created a mini crisis of the coal miners potentially losing their health care.

Trump didnt win on gerrymandering, Trump won by winning a majority of the votes in a majority of the states weighed by the population of the states.

Despite his rhetoric, Trump isn’t saving the coal industry

But it hasn’t worked. Reuters reported earlier this year, “More U.S. coal-fired power plants were shut in President Donald Trump’s first two years than were retired in the whole of Barack Obama’s first term, despite the Republican’s efforts to prop up the industry to keep a campaign promise to coal-mining states.”

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/despite-his-rhetoric-trump-isnt-saving-the-coal-industry

[Unusual Tournament]

4 minutes ago, Not A Rockstar said:

explain exactly how he did this in 2016 as a candidate, or else admit you do not understand what gerrymandering is.

Okay gerrymandering is a concept only native to America and we in Australia have no idea. LOL. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

Edited November 17, 2019 by Captain Risky

[Unusual Tournament]

Jordan and Meadows represent two of the most wildly gerrymandered congressional districts in the nation – seats designed to elect not just any Republican, but the most extreme conservative.

 

Thank gerrymandering for Trump's staunchest defenders in Congress

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/congress-gerrymandering-trump-republicans-jim-jordan-mark-meadows

[+Not A Rockstar]

Dang it, there isn't a rolling the eyes emote ….. terrible.

Looks like John Bel may be squeaking a win in, so soon you can claim it was a landslide and proof Trump has lost the whole state Risky Caddo is still out (prob pro Eddie) and a few NOLA parishes are still pending (prob pro John Bel). John will probably win this by a nose after all.

You'd be mistaken, but, hey, you can say so

*walks off pleased at an accurate call for this election :)* 

[+Not A Rockstar]

No No No, Risky. You stated Trump won on gerrymandering. This was not even possible for him to do as a mere candidate.

Quoting claims of it after that election regarding some of his supporters is a different argument.

Trump won by the electoral college vote. That is all. (That vote is valid if your side wins and needs to be abolished if your side loses.)

[DarkHunter]

11 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Despite his rhetoric, Trump isn’t saving the coal industry

But it hasn’t worked. Reuters reported earlier this year, “More U.S. coal-fired power plants were shut in President Donald Trump’s first two years than were retired in the whole of Barack Obama’s first term, despite the Republican’s efforts to prop up the industry to keep a campaign promise to coal-mining states.”

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/despite-his-rhetoric-trump-isnt-saving-the-coal-industry

That doesnt change the fact that the coal miners view Trump as saving their healthcare and view the Democrats as betraying them after decades of voting for them.

As for the link to the article you posted it was definitely written by someone who had little idea of what they are talking about.

More coal power plants have closed under Trump, that is true, but those are power plants about a century or so old that have generating capacity measured in the low 10s of MW at best and which are stupidly inefficient.  Coal power plants made in the 60s and 70s, let alone ones refurbished more recently, have capacities in the hundreds of MWs and are much more efficient.  To put it in perspective increasing the output of one of the turbines in the newer coal power plants by 5% could potentially create as much if not more energy then a few of these coal power plants that are being closed combined could produce.

Edited November 17, 2019 by DarkHunter

[Unusual Tournament]

10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

That doesnt change the fact that the coal miners view Trump as saving their healthcare and view the Democrats as betraying them after decades of voting for them.

As for the link to the article you posted it was definitely written by someone who had little idea of what they are talking about.

More coal power plants have closed under Trump, that is true, but those are power plants about a century or so old that have generating capacity measured in the low 10s of MW at best and which are stupidly inefficient.  Coal power plants made in the 60s and 70s, let alone ones refurbished more recently, have capacities in the hundreds of MWs and are much more efficient.  To put it in perspective increasing the output of one of the turbines in the newer coal power plants by 5% could potentially create as much if not more energy then a few of these coal power plants that are being closed combined could produce.

Well we don’t know for sure what the miners think about Trump until an election. And if the last one was any indication then I’d say not much. If there industry is dying then they’ll blame Trump who promised to help them before the democrats. 

[Unusual Tournament]

14 minutes ago, Not A Rockstar said:

No No No, Risky. You stated Trump won on gerrymandering. This was not even possible for him to do as a mere candidate.

Quoting claims of it after that election regarding some of his supporters is a different argument.

Trump won by the electoral college vote. That is all. (That vote is valid if your side wins and needs to be abolished if your side loses.)

Tell me how Trump won by getting less votes than Hillary Clinton?