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Captain Risky

governor’s race in Louisiana

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DarkHunter
2 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Well we don’t know for sure what the miners think about Trump until an election. And if the last one was any indication then I’d say not much. If there industry is dying then they’ll blame Trump who promised to help them before the democrats. 

I live in the coal mining area, I still see the coal miners with Trump decals on their vehicles, wearing MAGA hates and shirts, and having Trump signs.  It's pretty clear if you live here who they still back.

The last election doesnt mean anything, the districts were Gerrymandered to give Democrats a massive advantage and even then quite a few Democrats essentially ran as Republicans except in name.

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DarkHunter
3 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Tell me how Trump won by getting less votes than Hillary Clinton?

I'll try to explain it.

Trump won a majority of votes in a majority of states weighted by population.

What that means is that each state has a certain amount of electoral votes of which a majority is needed to win the presidency.  Who ever wins the majority of votes in a state get all the electoral votes of that state in general.  That creates situation like with Trump where he won states by 1% or 2% while Clinton won states like California and New York by 10% to 20%.  Since it doesnt matter how much a person wins a state by it can create situations where a person can easily get the most electoral votes but lose the popular vote.

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Not A Rockstar
10 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Tell me how Trump won by getting less votes than Hillary Clinton?

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html

We vote for our elector, basically, per our Constitution, which you as an expert observer and critic of our system should know and probably do. I am not in a debate. I came on to talk about my state's election today, which I am involved with. I am an Indie, not a Trumper, but I am conservative with liberal leanings.

Trump won the very same as every Pres before him did, though sometimes the pop vote differs from the electoral vote. Stuff happens. 

Later o/

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Hankenhunter

Yes! The trump's kiss of doom strikes again. It may not mean much, but the optics look really bad. Especially with Trump stumping there 2 days before the election. Just like last time, and the time before. He's batting 000, the bases loaded, with a full count, and he always strikes out. The coach (Yertle)want's to put Pence in, but knows Pence will try for a walk. What to do.

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, Not A Rockstar said:

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html

We vote for our elector, basically, per our Constitution, which you as an expert observer and critic of our system should know and probably do. I am not in a debate. I came on to talk about my state's election today, which I am involved with. I am an Indie, not a Trumper, but I am conservative with liberal leanings.

Trump won the very same as every Pres before him did, though sometimes the pop vote differs from the electoral vote. Stuff happens. 

Later o/

Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton garnered 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

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Not A Rockstar

It doesn't mean much. This is one state that pretty much ignores and is ignored by the rest of the country.

We put John Bel in office and also elected Trump. No change, basically, no matter how folks want to spin it in their fervor. Tonight, we kept John Bel as Governor. We vote our best option, and generally ignore the party more than most do. We look for conservatives, generally. We dislike ugly campaigns and Eddie ran a fairly ugly one and in the end it tipped the scales. He came close, but, lost, which was what I expected. His early lead surprised me tbh. Without Trump I think he would have been closer to the 35 - 38 percentile, rather than 48 or 49 as he was at the end.

Most of the dems running have nothing to offer unless they run very centrist down this way. There isn't one in the present field who can beat Trump in this state. This is why they are going so frantic to find a way to force him out of office (against the will of the voters who put him there) so they do not have to run against him. They have no moral high ground.

This next year is going to be eventful but not very pretty or interesting, unless warrants start coming down. DC is sickening these days.

JMO.

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RAyMO

Most states have a “winner-take-all” system that awards all electors to the winning presidential candidate. However, Maine and Nebraska each have a variation of “proportional representation.”

I have no idea what effect it would have - but would it be more representative if all states, as far as possible, used their electoral votes to mimic how their voters actually voted. Why bother with multiple electoral votes if the mulitples have to vote identically. I mean why give a area 3 votes if all three must be the same. Would make more sense to break them into single vote areas.

Edited by RAyMO
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Not A Rockstar
4 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton garnered 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

What is your point? This was a legal election, run like they all have been. Electors elect, not popular vote, when it comes to the President.

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Captain Risky

Trump Wants to Use ‘Citizenship Data’ to Gerrymander Democracy

 

he whole point of messing with the Census was a political scheme to facilitate the Republican gerrymandering of the United States Congress, state legislatures, and local governments nationwide. This is a mission critical for a dying party that can survive only by cheating democracy. So it is that while Donald Trump’s attempt to add a citizenship question to the Census failed, the mission continues.

https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-census-citizenship-data-gerrymander-democracy/

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Captain Risky
2 minutes ago, Not A Rockstar said:

What is your point? This was a legal election, run like they all have been. Electors elect, not popular vote, when it comes to the President.

Its all legal like, never said it wasn't. 

Not A Rockstar said: "Trump won the very same as every Pres before him did, though sometimes the pop vote differs from the electoral vote. Stuff happens."

...but Trump didn't win like all others before him. He won by a minority of the popular vote. Only the 5th to do so.  

 

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Hankenhunter
10 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Trump Wants to Use ‘Citizenship Data’ to Gerrymander Democracy

 

he whole point of messing with the Census was a political scheme to facilitate the Republican gerrymandering of the United States Congress, state legislatures, and local governments nationwide. This is a mission critical for a dying party that can survive only by cheating democracy. So it is that while Donald Trump’s attempt to add a citizenship question to the Census failed, the mission continues.

https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-census-citizenship-data-gerrymander-democracy/

Good catch. It was s good credible read.

Edited by Hankenhunter
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Captain Risky
22 minutes ago, Not A Rockstar said:

It doesn't mean much. This is one state that pretty much ignores and is ignored by the rest of the country.

We put John Bel in office and also elected Trump. No change, basically, no matter how folks want to spin it in their fervor. Tonight, we kept John Bel as Governor. We vote our best option, and generally ignore the party more than most do. We look for conservatives, generally. We dislike ugly campaigns and Eddie ran a fairly ugly one and in the end it tipped the scales. He came close, but, lost, which was what I expected. His early lead surprised me tbh. Without Trump I think he would have been closer to the 35 - 38 percentile, rather than 48 or 49 as he was at the end.

Most of the dems running have nothing to offer unless they run very centrist down this way. There isn't one in the present field who can beat Trump in this state. This is why they are going so frantic to find a way to force him out of office (against the will of the voters who put him there) so they do not have to run against him. They have no moral high ground.

This next year is going to be eventful but not very pretty or interesting, unless warrants start coming down. DC is sickening these days.

JMO.

Trump invested much political capital into Louisiana. His base didn't grow it shrunk. I bet if Rispone had won then right now you'd be hailing Trump the victor instead of playing down the republican defeat.  

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Not A Rockstar
22 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Its all legal like, never said it wasn't. 

Not A Rockstar said: "Trump won the very same as every Pres before him did, though sometimes the pop vote differs from the electoral vote. Stuff happens."

...but Trump didn't win like all others before him. He won by a minority of the popular vote. Only the 5th to do so.  

 

Of course he did. The same system, they all run under it, and sometimes you don't always get all the popular vote. It has happened before. He won the same as everyone, met the same standard, which is win the electoral voting. All we vote for is the electors.

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Farmer77
14 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Trump invested much political capital into Louisiana.

Yeah people are talking about these state losses for the GOP in terms of Trump support for 2020 but the real concern for Trumpians should be the message these results are sending to the senate who will be voting on his fate soon.

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susieice
40 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Most states have a “winner-take-all” system that awards all electors to the winning presidential candidate. However, Maine and Nebraska each have a variation of “proportional representation.”

I have no idea what effect it would have - but would it be more representative if all states, as far as possible, used their electoral votes to mimic how their voters actually voted. Why bother with multiple electoral votes if the mulitples have to vote identically. I mean why give a area 3 votes if all three must be the same. Would make more sense to break them into single vote areas.

States with large populations like California and New York can't dictate an election. Rhode Island and Montana have their say too. That's just how it works. Neither Maine or Nebraska has a large population.

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Captain Risky
2 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Yeah people are talking about these state losses for the GOP in terms of Trump support for 2020 but the real concern for Trumpians should be the message these results are sending to the senate who will be voting on his fate soon.

I can't see Mitch being pleased these last couple of weeks with support for Trump. Every time i see Mitch McConnell he comes across as completely devoid of any personality and unreadable. Who knows what he is going to do to address this republican problem. 

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Not A Rockstar
12 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Trump invested much political capital into Louisiana. His base didn't grow it shrunk. I bet if Rispone had won then right now you'd be hailing Trump the victor instead of playing down the republican defeat.  

You'd be wrong. I said all along that I expected John Bel to win by a nose, because he is generally popular here. I said all along that Trump wasn't likely to matter in it. I said Eddie's early lead surprised me, seriously.

I advise the senator who hired me to do that. I do not deal with emotions but reality when it comes to elections. I get that in the streets not the media. I don't even bother with these threads but was watching the results and expected a fun few posts among people interested in our election. I had hoped to offer some local insight.

I think we are about done here, because I really have no interest in being harangued by a zealot who believes he knows it all about Louisiana, Eddie, John Bel and me from the other side of the world. 

2020 will prove what is so and all this hysteria a year beforehand is a waste of energy. I still expect a late entry to the dem field, but, if not, it is not gonna be a cake walk for the dems.

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Captain Risky
14 minutes ago, Not A Rockstar said:

Of course he did. The same system, they all run under it, and sometimes you don't always get all the popular vote. It has happened before. He won the same as everyone, met the same standard, which is win the electoral voting. All we vote for is the electors.

I agree but the point is that not getting the popular vote isn't some fluke of the electoral system but rather a result of his popularity. and given that the demographics of the USA are changing rapidly something that the republicans will have to get used to more. 

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Captain Risky
Just now, Not A Rockstar said:

You'd be wrong. I said all along that I expected John Bel to win by a nose, because he is generally popular here. I said all along that Trump wasn't likely to matter in it. I said Eddie's early lead surprised me, seriously.

I advise the senator who hired me to do that. I do not deal with emotions but reality when it comes to elections. I get that in the streets not the media. I don't even bother with these threads but was watching the results and expected a fun few posts among people interested in our election. I had hoped to offer some local insight.

I think we are about done here, because I really have no interest in being harangued by a zealot who believes he knows it all about Louisiana, Eddie, John Bel and me from the other side of the world. 

2020 will prove what is so and all this hysteria a year beforehand is a waste of energy. I still expect a late entry to the dem field, but, if not, it is not gonna be a cake walk for the dems.

is his popularity also due to democratic health coverage? 

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Farmer77
1 minute ago, Captain Risky said:

is his popularity also due to democratic health coverage? 

It is interesting that during these elections such issues are called "hyper local" but on a national scale they're called "far left" issues.

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Captain Risky

In Blow To Trump’s Medicaid Policies, Democrat Wins In Louisiana

Democrat John Bel Edwards won the race for Louisiana governor, beating back a Republican challenger who said he wanted to freeze enrollment in Medicaid health coverage.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceJapaneseen/2019/11/16/in-blow-to-trumps-medicaid-policies-democrat-wins-in-louisiana/#7c515eed1d4f

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Not A Rockstar
3 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

is his popularity also due to democratic health coverage? 

who? John Bel?

He balanced our budget and is spending on education and expanding medical care, yes. Our schools are horrid and his efforts are very needed. His party is secondary to conservative efforts whatever he wants to call himself, so he does well enough here. It is not about party or Trump or any of that when it comes down to the voter around here. Any strong conservative has a shot here. 

Given that I do not think we are strange, I honestly believe this is how most folks feel about how they will vote. I would hope so, anyway, that records, policies and what does the alternative offer is all that gets considered.

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Not A Rockstar
12 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

I agree but the point is that not getting the popular vote isn't some fluke of the electoral system but rather a result of his popularity. and given that the demographics of the USA are changing rapidly something that the republicans will have to get used to more. 

The vote was heavily against Hillary. Period. That formed a large part of his support. She got the REP vote out to vote her down. 2020 will be interesting. Maybe then we will see what support he has in truth based on himself instead of her.

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and then
3 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Tell me how Trump won by getting less votes than Hillary Clinton?

Over here our Founders recognized democracy for what it actually IS - "Rule by the Mob"  They decided to create a Constitutionally governed Republic where citizens voted for representatives based on state population.  In presidential elections they also created an extra element to insure that all states were represented fairly.  That compromise is called the Electoral College.  Each state gets members to that College based on population.  Technically, U.S. citizens cast a ballot for electors who will vote for the candidate with the most votes in THAT state.  

In short, our president is elected by gaining the majority of votes in the majority of states.  It was a brilliant compromise that leveled the field between sparsely populated states and the heavily populated states.  Even back then they knew that to elect based solely on popular vote would essentially nullify the input from whole states where the population density was low.  Those who complain about that system need to understand that we have NEVER elected a president any other way.  EVER.

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