The Road to Brexit

[bee]

 

It feels like we need a new Brexit thread after recent developments - the pivotal moment being the 12/12/19
General Election and Conservative Landslide victory -

The campaign was led by Boris Johnson promising to ... "get Brexit done".... 

Short video outlining the drama of the day ...

The key point is made by Tobias Ellwood when he says... (8:55) ......" We now have a majority. We can pass
legislation and we can move forward with Brexit..."

 

How Boris Johnson won the ‘Brexit election’

0:35 - election results

4:40 - Boris Johnson's first speech after winning 

 

[bee]

 

Variations of this point have been brought up before and now come into sharper focus...

Quote from the beginning of this video by Jeff Taylor.. (5th Dec. before the GE)
 

" After years of being force fed a diet of how powerful the EU is and that the UK just cannot
function without being tied up inside it - so Brexit should be stopped - we are now told that
Brexit must be stopped because the effect of us leaving the EU will be to destabilize the whole
European geo political situation..."

 

 

Brexit will destabilise Europe say experts!

 

[Space Commander Travis]

Well, knowing how fond you are of fidnign appropriate songs, this seems to sum up the Road to Brexit ..

 

or possibly 

 

(Doesn't she rather remind you of Saint Greta?) 

[Cookie Monster]

With Brexit we have the following options:

Parliament passes the Boris Deal: In effect this allows NI to trade with ROI and the UK without paying barrier tariffs. But any goods likely to go from ROI to the UK or vice versa need to have them applied. This deal is temporary while we thrash out a free trade agreement and we will pay an estimated £32.8bn for the privilege. This option lessons the short-term shock of leaving the EU.

Parliament passes a Hard-Brexit: We default out of the EU and have no NI customs agreement with ROI. This of course means we save the £32.8bn but it will cause a short-term shock to the NI economy. The question is, is £32.8bn worth it? I say no, clearly not, it is a vast amount of money compared to the damage NI businesses which incur and have to adapt too.

Just like it has taken 3 years to finally get Brexit I predict we will not be able to get the EU to a agree on a free trade agreement while NI is in a customs union with ROI. The reason? They wont want the vast sums of money we will be paying it for that agreement to stop.

I return to my previous stance already communicated in the other Brexit related topics where the only way out of the EU is a Hard-Brexit.

[Setton]

2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

With Brexit we have the following options:

Parliament passes the Boris Deal: In effect this allows NI to trade with ROI and the UK without paying barrier tariffs. But any goods likely to go from ROI to the UK or vice versa need to have them applied. This deal is temporary while we thrash out a free trade agreement and we will pay an estimated £32.8bn for the privilege. This option lessons the short-term shock of leaving the EU.

Parliament passes a Hard-Brexit: We default out of the EU and have no NI customs agreement with ROI. This of course means we save the £32.8bn but it will cause a short-term shock to the NI economy. The question is, is £32.8bn worth it? I say no, clearly not, it is a vast amount of money compared to the damage NI businesses which incur and have to adapt too.

Just like it has taken 3 years to finally get Brexit I predict we will not be able to get the EU to a agree on a free trade agreement while NI is in a customs union with ROI. The reason? They wont want the vast sums of money we will be paying it for that agreement to stop.

I return to my previous stance already communicated in the other Brexit related topics where the only way out of the EU is a Hard-Brexit.

So you quite openly don't want the promise that the government was elected in but you're still trying to claim victory. 

Oh you make me laugh, sad clown. 

[stevewinn]

3 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

With Brexit we have the following options:

Parliament passes the Boris Deal: In effect this allows NI to trade with ROI and the UK without paying barrier tariffs. But any goods likely to go from ROI to the UK or vice versa need to have them applied. This deal is temporary while we thrash out a free trade agreement and we will pay an estimated £32.8bn for the privilege. This option lessons the short-term shock of leaving the EU.

Parliament passes a Hard-Brexit: We default out of the EU and have no NI customs agreement with ROI. This of course means we save the £32.8bn but it will cause a short-term shock to the NI economy. The question is, is £32.8bn worth it? I say no, clearly not, it is a vast amount of money compared to the damage NI businesses which incur and have to adapt too.

Just like it has taken 3 years to finally get Brexit I predict we will not be able to get the EU to a agree on a free trade agreement while NI is in a customs union with ROI. The reason? They wont want the vast sums of money we will be paying it for that agreement to stop.

I return to my previous stance already communicated in the other Brexit related topics where the only way out of the EU is a Hard-Brexit.

I favour a so called hard Brexit, when in reality there is nothing hard about it, UK benefits by 0.9% from being in the EU, since 1993. EU study done in 2012 by Michel Barnier stated the EU benefited as a whole by 2% of GDP. yet another report said implementing EU laws and directives cost EU members -8% GDP. so if we join the dots. -8% + +2% = -6% GDP. and that's before we take in the fact the UK trade deficit with the EU last year was a staggering -£66bn. lets add £15bn membership fee we pay for that -£66bn deficit. So £15bn for nothing in return add the £3,4bn the UK pays the EU towards the EU's aid policy and its unbelievable £18.3bn for nothing in return. and that's every single year. while on the subject, add our domestic £15bn aid budget to that figure and its £33.3Bn for absolutely nothing in return.

I favour leaving the EU with no deal, offer a FTA. and start spending this money here at home.

serial loser @Setton thinks leaving is not leaving.

On Boris's deal, We official leave the EU. our membership ceases. now it might not be on 'hard brexit' terms, but its still leaving. The EU as got till December 2020 for the UK to agree to a new trade deal. if we reach that date, its WTO. imagine if we agree a trade deal in that time frame. we'll be out of the EU. a non-EU member and with a trade deal. (that December 2020 date can be extended, but that extension has got to be agreed by 1st July 2020. - the EU is already asking for an extension. how the tide as turned, EU asking us for an extension. the clock is ticking. Mr EU.

 

 

[Setton]

4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

serial loser @Setton thinks leaving is not leaving

No, intellectually honest Setton thinks its funny when other losers pretend to be winners. Actually, no, when 6 year olds do it, it's funny. Adults is just sad. 

[RAyMO]

8 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Parliament passes the Boris Deal: In effect this allows NI to trade with ROI and the UK without paying barrier tariffs. But any goods likely to go from ROI to the UK or vice versa need to have them applied. This deal is temporary while we thrash out a free trade agreement and we will pay an estimated £32.8bn for the privilege. This option lessons the short-term shock of leaving the EU.

the deal is temporary only if you negotiate a Free Trade deal that removes removes any need for checks on goods entering UK / EU. For that to happen you would need close alignment.

Should you go for hard Brexit later in 2020 after having ratified the WA - the WA still stands, specifically the NI protocol.

8 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Parliament passes a Hard-Brexit: We default out of the EU and have no NI customs agreement with ROI. This of course means we save the £32.8bn but it will cause a short-term shock to the NI economy. The question is, is £32.8bn worth it? I say no, clearly not, it is a vast amount of money compared to the damage NI businesses which incur and have to adapt too.

The purpose of the transition is to protect UK not soley NI. The 'withdrawal agreement NI protocol' (which is not transition) is to protect NI from the shock should the rest of the UK hard Brexit.

Your evaluation of the transition and its associated costs are based on miss-understandings.

 

To be clear if:

Boris ratifies his deal, the NI protocol comes into law - though has no real implementation until the transition ends.

If transition ends and the whole of the UK has a full trade deal with the EU which don't require any checks then the NI protocol has no effect (no need for east west checks).

If transition ends with any other agreement short of full free trade, the NI protocol kicks in with east west checks.

Transition in all cases applies to the whole UK and is designed to allow businesses across the whole UK to get ready for whatever comes later.

 

Furthermore the 32.8billion (or rather the largest element of it) is owed whether or not you ratify the WA, as per both the Attorney General and the same Lords Committee which had originally argued that the debt was not owed. 

a 2017 report by the Lords’ EU Financial Affairs sub-committee which said Britain would be under “no enforceable obligation” to pay.

But the same committee said today that the UK “should honour its financial obligations”.

A refusal to hand over the sums agreed “would have consequences for the UK’s international standing and reputation”,

 

Geoffrey Cox, who has been reappointed as attorney general,  said  in the House of Commons in December: “The view of the government, and my view, is that we would have obligations to pay a certain amount of money were we to leave the European Union without a deal.”

Edited December 16, 2019 by RAyMO

[bee]

 

general info....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50811026

The government plans to ask MPs to vote on Boris Johnson's Brexit bill on Friday, Downing Street has said.

The PM's spokesman said the government planned to start the process in Parliament before Christmas in the "proper constitutional way".

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill is the legislation that will enable Brexit to happen - the UK is due to leave the EU on 31 January.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The bill is expected to pass through Parliament in time to meet Boris Johnson's promise for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January.

Mr Johnson then has to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU and have it ratified before the end of the post-Brexit transition period that ends on 31 December 2020. He has repeatedly said that the transition period will not be extended.

 

[hetrodoxly]

5 hours ago, Setton said:

No, intellectually honest Setton thinks its funny when other losers pretend to be winners. Actually, no, when 6 year olds do it, it's funny. Adults is just sad. 

 

[L.A.T.1961]

EU looks at extending Brexit transition period beyond 2020 

Move is being considered by EU officials in face of Johnson not seeking extension beyond 11 months. EU leaders would take the initiative and request an extension to the transition period, keeping the UK under Brussels regulations beyond 2020, under a plan mooted for getting around Boris Johnson’s stated refusal to seek a delay.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/eu-brexit-transition-period-boris-johnson 

 

Boris Johnson to legislate to rule out extension of EU 'transition'.

"Those who thought Boris Johnson would exploit his huge majority to be flexible on the end-2020 deadline for negotiating a trade agreement with the EU will be proved wrong at the end of the week.

Because I understand that the revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill will put into law that the transition arrangements with the EU, during which the UK is in effect a non-voting member of the EU, must end December 31 next year."

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-12-16/boris-johnson-to-legislate-to-rule-out-extension-of-eu-transition-reveals-robert-peston/

 

It looks like Boris is cutting the EU off at the pass. It appears Brussels have yet to adjust to the fact it is no longer T May they are dealing with.  

 

 

 

[Space Commander Travis]

20 hours ago, stevewinn said:

On Boris's deal, We official leave the EU. our membership ceases.

It will be no more, it will cease to be, it will be an ex-membership.

Brexit has, I think, been going on for longer than Monty Python did, and is widely held by many to have been even funnier.  The final series, however, has, in the eyes of many pundits, been stretched out a bit, and many fans are hoping that the writers of this much-loved comedy will find a way to satisfactorily wrap it up at the end of this series. 

[Cookie Monster]

16 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

EU looks at extending Brexit transition period beyond 2020 

Move is being considered by EU officials in face of Johnson not seeking extension beyond 11 months. EU leaders would take the initiative and request an extension to the transition period, keeping the UK under Brussels regulations beyond 2020, under a plan mooted for getting around Boris Johnson’s stated refusal to seek a delay.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/eu-brexit-transition-period-boris-johnson 

Boris Johnson to legislate to rule out extension of EU 'transition'.

"Those who thought Boris Johnson would exploit his huge majority to be flexible on the end-2020 deadline for negotiating a trade agreement with the EU will be proved wrong at the end of the week.

Because I understand that the revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill will put into law that the transition arrangements with the EU, during which the UK is in effect a non-voting member of the EU, must end December 31 next year."

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-12-16/boris-johnson-to-legislate-to-rule-out-extension-of-eu-transition-reveals-robert-peston/

It looks like Boris is cutting the EU off at the pass. It appears Brussels have yet to adjust to the fact it is no longer T May they are dealing with.  

Plan A Failed: Trap the UK Parliament in indecision until we grind Britain down enough that its people will want to remain in the EU.

Plan B: Trap the UK Parliament in negotiating for a trade deal until the British people give up and decide to remain in the EU.

[bee]

 

I like Sargon of Akkad aka Carl Benjamin's videos and here he is in jubilant mood talking
about what a strong position Britain is in now when it comes to leaving the EU... and how
the EU, like most Remainers are now accepting that we ARE leaving...

No doubt the likes of John Major, Tony Blair were meeting up with them before telling them
it wasn't over and when they had wangled another referendum and changed the law to let
16 / 17 year olds vote in it..... we would be staying...

But the people, as Carl says, have dug their heels in,..and we're leaving after three and a half
years of shenanigans in the House of Commons that has p***** the General Public off good
and proper....

And the end of the video - a short clip of Boris addressing his party... he 's speaking clearly
not muttering and stuttering... there's a confidence and steeliness about him that bodes well..

 

Boris Prepares to Give the EU an Absolute Haymaker

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by bee

[bee]

 

Is it too soon for this clip from 1966...... ?........

(yes it IS the England team... sorry to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland)

But I can't resist....

"They think it's all over.... it IS now...."


 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by bee

[stevewinn]

Its reported the govt to introduce Brexit bill to rule out extension to transition period

It is welcome and necessary for the government to rule out any further delay to our exit from the EU. The EU agreed to a Free Trade Agreement in principle. It is quite possible to produce one in time. If the EU thinks we will delay again they have an incentive not to agree anything.

Mrs von der Leyen has reportedly said a deal on goods and fish must be agreed first. I’m sure Boris has the good sense not to fall into the Mrs May trap of sequenced negotiations. By all means start with fish and goods – but nothing must be agreed until everything is agreed and the clock is ticking.

No extension will concentrate the minds of the EU. They cannot afford to shoot themselves in the foot in the current world economic slowdown, At last, The British government playing its own hand of cards, not simply accepting the EU's position. Boris sticking to his guns and ensuring we leave by law as opposed to all the other legal ploys that tried to stop Brexit prior to the election. Carry on Boris, get it sorted.

after all those shenanigans by the remainers, passing laws, WTO 'hard brexit' back on the table.

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Boris sticking to his guns and ensuring we leave by law as opposed to all the other legal ploys

Also called laws. 

[Cookie Monster]

3 hours ago, bee said:

I like Sargon of Akkad aka Carl Benjamin's videos and here he is in jubilant mood talking

about what a strong position Britain is in now when it comes to leaving the EU... and how
the EU, like most Remainers are now accepting that we ARE leaving...

No doubt the likes of John Major, Tony Blair were meeting up with them before telling them
it wasn't over and when they had wangled another referendum and changed the law to let
16 / 17 year olds vote in it..... we would be staying...

But the people, as Carl says, have dug their heels in,..and we're leaving after three and a half
years of shenanigans in the House of Commons that has p***** the General Public off good
and proper....

And the end of the video - a short clip of Boris addressing his party... he 's speaking clearly
not muttering and stuttering... there's a confidence and steeliness about him that bodes well..

Boris Prepares to Give the EU an Absolute Haymaker

The EU will currently be preparing their trade negotiation strategy to prevent Brexit.

Once the Boris deal has been passed then they have captured NI as their playing chip using the customs union they will use to trade without barriers to the UK and ROI. While we will have an exit clause it amounts to little if NI will demand independence without a free trade agreement should we move for a Hard-Brexit.

Our hope our strategists have realised this and Boris moves for a Hard-Brexit on 31st January 2020.

[Setton]

2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

The EU will currently be preparing their trade negotiation strategy to prevent Brexit.

Once the Boris deal has been passed then they have captured NI as their playing chip using the customs union they will use to trade without barriers to the UK and ROI. While we will have an exit clause it amounts to little if NI will demand independence without a free trade agreement should we move for a Hard-Brexit.

Our hope our strategists have realised this and Boris moves for a Hard-Brexit on 31st January 2020.

Luckily for all of us, our civil servants are not reliant on random mongeese on the internet for their strategy. 

[Cookie Monster]

8 hours ago, Setton said:

Luckily for all of us, our civil servants are not reliant on random mongeese on the internet for their strategy. 

And thank God they arent reliant on random @Settoneese lol

Edited December 18, 2019 by RabidMongoose

[quillius]

On 12/16/2019 at 7:59 AM, bee said:

 

It feels like we need a new Brexit thread after recent developments - the pivotal moment being the 12/12/19
General Election and Conservative Landslide victory -
 

 

Hey Bee,

 

think you may have this wrong, I have seen posts since the election on UM and even heard Corbyn speak....are you sure that the conservatives won?

I swear I heard Corbyn say that his manifesto was very popular and that he had won all the debates.......one can only assume Labour must have therefore won

 

 

 

(sarcasm-just in case it wasnt obvious)

[bee]

2 minutes ago, quillius said:

Hey Bee,

 

think you may have this wrong, I have seen posts since the election on UM and even heard Corbyn speak....are you sure that the conservatives won?

I swear I heard Corbyn say that his manifesto was very popular and that he had won all the debates.......one can only assume Labour must have therefore won

 

 

 

(sarcasm-just in case it wasnt obvious)

 

oh I'm sorry....... I must have been in the Wrong (Orwellian) Reality Dimension when I wrote that....

Correction....

War is Peace

Freedom is Slavery

Ignorance is Strength

LOSING IS WINNING

 

 

 

[quillius]

9 minutes ago, bee said:

 

oh I'm sorry....... I must have been in the Wrong (Orwellian) Reality Dimension when I wrote that....

Correction....

War is Peace

Freedom is Slavery

Ignorance is Strength

LOSING IS WINNING

 

 

 

that's better

[RAyMO]

A NO trade deal - impact on Northern Ireland:

A no-trade-deal Brexit would affect Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in very different ways.

England, Scotland and Wales would face tariffs and other trade barriers with the EU.

Northern Ireland would not. That's because the withdrawal deal guarantees frictionless trade with the Republic of Ireland and by extension the EU.

There would not be a hard land border, however it would guarantee significant trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

....

So the greater the divergence between Great Britain and the EU, the greater the divergence between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The more divergence, the more checks and controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50823494

 

[Cookie Monster]

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

A NO trade deal - impact on Northern Ireland:

A no-trade-deal Brexit would affect Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in very different ways.

England, Scotland and Wales would face tariffs and other trade barriers with the EU.

Northern Ireland would not. That's because the withdrawal deal guarantees frictionless trade with the Republic of Ireland and by extension the EU.

There would not be a hard land border, however it would guarantee significant trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

....

So the greater the divergence between Great Britain and the EU, the greater the divergence between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The more divergence, the more checks and controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50823494

 

Tory Government advisors have said this morning on Sky News that a Hard-Brexit is back on the table if the EU doesnt give us what we want, and that should it occur Boris wont be erecting a hard border between NI and ROI.

Exciting, our No Deal approaches!!!!