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The Road to Brexit

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RoofGardener

Why is everyone obsessing with relations between Eire and Northern Ireland ? 

We can have a frictionless border FROM THE UK SIDE. We don't charge tarrifs for Irish goods entering the UK. We allow free travel of Irish passport-holders. And so on. 

It is Eire that has the problem. IT will have to charge tariffs. IT will have to impose passport checks. For one simple reason. 

As a EU member, Ireland has no control over its own border policies. These are set in Brussels. As more and more citizens of Eire realise this, their love affair with the EU may start to decline ?

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RAyMO
2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Tory Government advisors have said this morning on Sky News that a Hard-Brexit is back on the table if the EU doesnt give us what we want, and that should it occur Boris wont be erecting a hard border between NI and ROI.

Exciting, our No Deal approaches!!!!

yes that was what the WA agreement NI protocol was all about.

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Why is everyone obsessing with relations between Eire and Northern Ireland ? 

We can have a frictionless border FROM THE UK SIDE. We don't charge tarrifs for Irish goods entering the UK. We allow free travel of Irish passport-holders. And so on. 

It is Eire that has the problem. IT will have to charge tariffs. IT will have to impose passport checks. For one simple reason. 

As a EU member, Ireland has no control over its own border policies. These are set in Brussels. As more and more citizens of Eire realise this, their love affair with the EU may start to decline ?

so the whole WA and the NI protocol inherent in it passed you by?

 

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Cookie Monster
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Why is everyone obsessing with relations between Eire and Northern Ireland ? 

We can have a frictionless border FROM THE UK SIDE. We don't charge tarrifs for Irish goods entering the UK. We allow free travel of Irish passport-holders. And so on. 

It is Eire that has the problem. IT will have to charge tariffs. IT will have to impose passport checks. For one simple reason. 

As a EU member, Ireland has no control over its own border policies. These are set in Brussels. As more and more citizens of Eire realise this, their love affair with the EU may start to decline ?

I spot a problem in there.

If we let ROI imports come in without apply tariffs then that will keep food prices down, but would give ROI businesses a cost advantage over UK competitors. I think in reality we would carefully choose what to tariff and when to tariff it.

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RoofGardener
1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

so the whole WA and the NI protocol inherent in it passed you by?

 

No.. the WA is a complex fudge, which has not yet been given Parliaments blessing. 

I was speaking of the actual situation.. what the UK could do if it wanted to, and what Eire is incapable of doing no matter how much its elected government might WANT to do. 

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RAyMO
Just now, RoofGardener said:

No.. the WA is a complex fudge, which has not yet been given Parliaments blessing. 

I was speaking of the actual situation.. what the UK could do if it wanted to, and what Eire is incapable of doing no matter how much its elected government might WANT to do. 

what Britain will do is  ratify the WA. Nothing Boris has said contradicts this.

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RoofGardener
1 minute ago, RabidMongoose said:

I spot a problem in there.

If we let ROI imports come in without apply tariffs then that will keep food prices down, but would give ROI businesses a cost advantage over UK competitors. I think in reality we would carefully choose what to tariff and when to tariff it.

I don't believe that is correct @RabidMongoose. We have no tariffs at the moment. So if we elected NOT to impose tariffs on goods entering the UK from Eire, we are just replicating the existing status quo. This would have no impact on competitiveness. However, if Eire elected to place tariffs on imports FROM the UK, then food prices in Eire would increase. 

Well, I say "elected", but of course Eire would have no choice. The tariffs would be imposed by the European Union, not by the elected Irish government, which has no say on its borders. 

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RAyMO
2 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I spot a problem in there.

If we let ROI imports come in without apply tariffs then that will keep food prices down, but would give ROI businesses a cost advantage over UK competitors. I think in reality we would carefully choose what to tariff and when to tariff it.

yes that is a problem plus goods getting in which don't meet UK regulations, plus why wouldn't immigrants decamp from Calais and cross from the EU into England from Northern Ireland - after all there will no checks?

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RAyMO
1 minute ago, RoofGardener said:

So if we elected NOT to impose tariffs on goods entering the UK from Eire

If you do this you are opening up challenges under WTO rules.

Edited by RAyMO

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RoofGardener
2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

what Britain will do is  ratify the WA. Nothing Boris has said contradicts this.

Quite possibly so. I was merely speaking of possibilities, and highlighting the fact that Eire has no control of its own borders; this has been surrendered to the European Union. 

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RoofGardener
1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

yes that is a problem plus goods getting in which don't meet UK regulations, plus why wouldn't immigrants decamp from Calais and cross from the EU into England from Northern Ireland - after all there will no checks?

If we're talking about Eire, then substandard goods shouldn't be entering the country in the first place. As for immigrants; we would presumably still be checking passports. I'm not sure how your vision of immigrants decamping from Calais has any bearing ? 

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RAyMO
2 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Quite possibly so. I was merely speaking of possibilities, and highlighting the fact that Eire has no control of its own borders; this has been surrendered to the European Union. 

If you want to be pedantic about it - the WA also gives up the UKs control of its only land border with the EU. Effectively I suppose though to the devolved administration in NI. 

Edited by RAyMO

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RoofGardener
2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

If you do this you are opening up challenges under WTO rules.

How so ? 

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RoofGardener
Just now, RAyMO said:

If you want to be pedantic about it - the WA also gives up the UKs control of its only land border with the EU.

Not really. At least, not totally, and it would be time-limited. 

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RAyMO
Just now, RoofGardener said:

Not really. At least, not totally, and it would be time-limited. 

Its not really but tell me how you think it is?

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RAyMO
3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

How so ? 

very briefly under WTO rules the tariffs need to be the same for everybody. So if you have zero for ireland and the EU then you need to offer the same to Argentina or the USA. there is a convulted way round it, which could still be subject to challenge and would need the agreement of both parties i.e. the EU and UK.

Edited by RAyMO

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Cookie Monster
12 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

If we're talking about Eire, then substandard goods shouldn't be entering the country in the first place. As for immigrants; we would presumably still be checking passports. I'm not sure how your vision of immigrants decamping from Calais has any bearing ? 

Yes, no border checks on good coming in is not the free movement of people.

Charging import tariffs doesnt require a hard border, it just requires spot checks to catch those trying to escape paying.

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RoofGardener
10 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

very briefly under WTO rules the tariffs need to be the same for everybody. So if you have zero for ireland and the EU then you need to offer the same to Argentina or the USA. there is a convulted way round it, which could still be subject to challenge and would need the agreement of both parties i.e. the EU and UK.

Indeed @RAyMO. Unless, of course, the two countries have a trade deal, or are in the progress of negotiating a trade deal. As we will immediately start negotiating a trade deal post-Brexit, that allows us to set up whatever rules we WANT on our side of the Irish border. :) 

Edited by RoofGardener

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Cookie Monster
9 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

very briefly under WTO rules the tariffs need to be the same for everybody. So if you have zero for ireland and the EU then you need to offer the same to Argentina or the USA. there is a convulted way round it, which could still be subject to challenge and would need the agreement of both parties i.e. the EU and UK.

If the Boris deal passes how it is then I`m sure their will be creative ways of UK companies sends goods to NI that are `not likely to go to the ROI` only for them to then go to ROI.

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RAyMO
1 minute ago, RabidMongoose said:

If the Boris deal passes how it is then I`m sure their will be creative ways of UK companies sends goods to NI that are `not likely to go to the ROI` only for them to then go to ROI.

which is why the NI protocol has established that all goods coming in will be subject to tarrifs and those which can be proven not to have entered the ROI will be subject to refund. An administrative nightmare really .

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RAyMO

snip

Edited by RAyMO

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Cookie Monster
3 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

which is why the NI protocol has established that all goods coming in will be subject to tarrifs and those which can be proven not to have entered the ROI will be subject to refund. An administrative nightmare really .

There is quite literally nothing stopping me exporting something to NI and selling it to another company I own that then exports it to ROI.

And to escape the UK and ROI tax authorities figuring out I own both companies I could have both own by holding companies offshore.

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RAyMO
2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

There is quite literally nothing stopping me exporting something to NI and selling it to another company I own that then exports it to ROI.

From the protocol:

No customs duties shall be payable for a good brought into Northern Ireland from another part of the United Kingdom by direct transport,notwithstanding paragraph 3, unless that good is at risk of subsequently being moved into the Union, whether by itself or forming part of another good following processing.The customs duties in respect of a good being moved by direct transport to Northern Ireland other than from the Union or from another part of the United Kingdom shall be the duties applicable in the United Kingdom, notwithstanding paragraph 3, unless that good is at risk of subsequently being moved into the Union, whether by itself or forming part of another good following processing.

They have this covered under risk, and even cover bringing in a good that is then processed or used in the formation of other goods. Which again, is why the protocol outlines a refund system whereby practically everything is taxed and refunds applied once it is proven the goods have not been subsequently shipped to the ROI.

Topical example:

I bring in 100 sausages from the UK; I wrap them in blankets from NI and I sell them to the ROI. - Tariffs apply.

I bring in 100 sausages from the UK; I wrap them in blankets from NI and I sell 80 of them to ROI - Tariffs apply to 80.

I bring in 100 sausages from the UK; I wrap them in blankets from NI and I sell 60 of them to ROI and 20 to England - Tariffs apply to 60.

How does the protocol say this should be handled: The importer pays tariffs on 100 Sausages and then claims a refund for the 20/40 he can prove were sold in NI (or moved back to the UK).

The emphasis in the protocol is on proving the goods never got to the EU market.

Edited by RAyMO

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Setton
8 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

And thank God they arent reliant on random @Settoneese lol

Mongeese is the plural of mongoose, not a language. A mongoose should know that. 

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L.A.T.1961

It looks like Verhoftstadt has turned into a brexiteer and now wants to have a no WA deal exit :w00t: 

"The Belgian MEP used his speech in the Parliament's plenary in Strasbourg on Wednesday to suggest MEPs could decline to ratify the Brexit bill that has been agreed between the European Commission and the UK Government." 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/guy-verhofstadt-european-parliament-block-brexit-deal-eu-citizens-rights-video-1344874

 

In the meantime Brussels have found their old record and have put it on again. 

Ursula Von der Leyen, a former German defence minister said -

"In case we cannot conclude an agreement by the end of 2020, we will face again a cliff-edge situation," she said. "This would clearly harm our interest but it will impact the UK more than us." 

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20191218-eurosceptics-dismiss-cliff-edge-brexit-warning-bohnson-europe-business-trade

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