Iran essentially leaves JCPOA

[DarkHunter]

Iran has just announced its 5th step back from the JCPOA which is abandoning the limits on the amount of centrifuges they can use.  Now Iran will run as many centrifuges as they want, enrich uranium to any level they want, store as much nuclear material they want, and do whatever research and development they want.

With that step Iran now has no limits to its nuclear program with the only significant aspect of the JCPOA remaining being inspectors from the IAEA still being allowed in.

[Tatetopa]

We ended our participation because we said it was not working.  Why are we surprised? Why do we care what they do now?

[Space Commander Travis]

Would this be the one that the Emperor ripped up and used as toilet paper in his golden throne? Then yes, it just proves that the Ranians want to control the world through Nuclear Blackmail by abandoning any pretence of respecting it. One would have to be stupid even exceeding the usual position of fanatical Trump supporters to expect any different. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Dumbledore the Awesome

[+joc]

16 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Iran has just announced its 5th step back from the JCPOA which is abandoning the limits on the amount of centrifuges they can use.  Now Iran will run as many centrifuges as they want, enrich uranium to any level they want, store as much nuclear material they want, and do whatever research and development they want.

With that step Iran now has no limits to its nuclear program with the only significant aspect of the JCPOA remaining being inspectors from the IAEA still being allowed in.

Oh there is a limit...and they very well may have reached it!

[RoofGardener]

19 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

...With that step Iran now has no limits to its nuclear program with the only significant aspect of the JCPOA remaining being inspectors from the IAEA still being allowed in.

Allowed in.... to specified facilities, but NOT military facilities. Nor can the inspectors make "surprise" inspections. 

Bit feeble ? 

[DarkHunter]

10 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

We ended our participation because we said it was not working.  Why are we surprised? Why do we care what they do now?

Mostly for how Europe will react and the effect it will have on Iran's economy.  While America left the JCPOA Europe did remain in it and did everything they could to keep Iran abiding by the deal by giving Iran economic relief.

Iran has been threatening to do this for awhile and Europe has threatened to snap the sanctions back in place if Iran continued to step back from the nuclear deal.  With this step the question arises on will Europe snap the sanctions back into place which would end the current economic aid to Iran and hurt the economy of Iran even further as what little trade they do now would mostly end under the sanctions.

[DarkHunter]

5 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Allowed in.... to specified facilities, but NOT military facilities. Nor can the inspectors make "surprise" inspections. 

Bit feeble ? 

Never said it was great, just that it was the only aspect of the JCPOA left in place still

[RoofGardener]

6 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Never said it was great, just that it was the only aspect of the JCPOA left in place still

Sadly, @DarkHunter, methinks the Iranians have been lying about JCPOA since day one, and betraying the agreement all along. 

[DarkHunter]

Just now, RoofGardener said:

Sadly, @DarkHunter, methinks the Iranians have been lying about JCPOA since day one, and betraying the agreement all along. 

That is a strong possibility but with current events it's very possible Iran wont have a functional nuclear program next week

[+and-then]

22 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Allowed in.... to specified facilities, but NOT military facilities. Nor can the inspectors make "surprise" inspections. 

Bit feeble ? 

The entire agreement was a joke.  I'm surprised the EU isn't crapping themselves trying to save the Iranian mullahs.  

[+and-then]

32 minutes ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

Would this be the one that the Emperor ripped up and used as toilet paper in his golden throne? Then yes, it just proves that the Ranians want to control the world through Nuclear Blackmail by abandoning any pretence of respecting it. One would have to be stupid even exceeding the usual position of fanatical Trump supporters to expect any different. 

They're as free as the wind, baby!  They are sovereign and can do what they like.  Until they can't.  We may be approaching that point now.  It'll be interesting to hear what Vlad and Xi have to say in the coming days.  They've been rather quiet.  

[+and-then]

33 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Allowed in.... to specified facilities, but NOT military facilities. Nor can the inspectors make "surprise" inspections. 

Bit feeble ? 

It went beyond darkly comical.  The Parchin explosives testing facility was razed, THEN we watched convoys of dump trucks remove the topsoil and dispose of it.  "Nothing to see here"   

[Vorg]

They only wanted atomic power for peaceful purposes. Anyone with a brain could see their purpose from the beginning.

Here they are threatening to wipe out Israel over a U.S action. If they had nuclear weapons would they use them?

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Israeli-bases-Haifa-targets-for-Soleimani-retaliation-ex-IRGC-chief-613197

The picture of the Iranian Officer should say all that needs saying about Iran within the above link.

 

 

 

 

[+and-then]

11 minutes ago, South Alabam said:

They only wanted atomic power for peaceful purposes. Anyone with a brain could see their purpose from the beginning.

Here they are threatening to wipe out Israel over a U.S action. If they had nuclear weapons would they use them?

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Israeli-bases-Haifa-targets-for-Soleimani-retaliation-ex-IRGC-chief-613197

The picture of the Iranian Officer should say all that needs saying about Iran within the above link.

 

 

 

 

If they caused significant casualties in Israel, they just might get their first nuke by "airmail".  I'm beginning to wonder just how sane the old man really is.  That'd be the one with the stylish dresses, not the Orange one  

[Tatetopa]

39 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Mostly for how Europe will react and the effect it will have on Iran's economy.  While America left the JCPOA Europe did remain in it and did everything they could to keep Iran abiding by the deal by giving Iran economic relief.

Europe couldn't do too much without running afoul of American sanctions.  Being pragmatic, America is a more important trading partner than Iran.  We knew that Europe would have to bend to that logic.  The US doesn't care how they react. The EU can't afford to stop trading with the US.  

We have done for Iran.  Either they go out in a blaze of glory or we starve them out slowly with sanctions.

 

[+and-then]

1 minute ago, Tatetopa said:

Either they go out in a blaze of glory or we starve them out slowly with sanctions.

Cry me a river.  The "they" you speak of aren't the average Iranian and you should understand that.  These people in their government are SLAUGHTERING that "they" as we speak.  Crushing them brutally for just protesting.  That government deserves no pity nor mercy.  All it would take to remove the sanctions is for them to accept a role in the world OTHER than regional Hegemon and they won't play that game.  It's they who will choose the all or nothing route.  We seem to have access to enough intel to know if they make a dash for the "finish line" where their nuclear ambitions are concerned so if they try that, yes, they will probably go out in a blaze of "glory". 

[Guyver]

1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

We ended our participation because we said it was not working.  Why are we surprised? Why do we care what they do now?

Because if they actually are successful in creating nuclear weapons, they’ll probably use them on us or Israel first.  If it weren’t for that, I’d say just pull out completely and let them have that part of the world to themselves.  

On the other hand, if one is concerned about human rights.....it’s a good reason to actively oppose those barbarians.

[+and-then]

5 minutes ago, Guyver said:

Because if they actually are successful in creating nuclear weapons, they’ll probably use them on us or Israel first.  If it weren’t for that, I’d say just pull out completely and let them have that part of the world to themselves.  

On the other hand, if one is concerned about human rights.....it’s a good reason to actively oppose those barbarians.

The Iran supporters here on UM deny that Iran has ever wanted to pursue nukes.  It's easy to ignore Iran's actions when you stubbornly deny facts on the ground.  If Iran actually tests a nuke these same supporters would then smoothly shift gears and say "why not"?  Who are we to tell them they can't have nukes?  That kind of stance just shows the infantile understanding of the realities that motivate Iran and the Norks.  Iran would be FAR more dangerous than Kim with nukes.  Look at the threats they're making today.  They say they'll DESTROY Tel Aviv or the port city of Haifa?  We all know that Israel already HAS nukes.  It's insanity to kick that particular tiger.  As Tom Clancy once wrote -"If you kick a tiger in the ass, you might want to have a plan for what to do with his teeth"

If they rain ballistic missiles on Israel, I doubt they'd all be conventional warheads.  Those missiles would come from all points of the compass.  They'd come from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Iraq and Iran.  If any one of those areas send one in with gas or other chemicals that cause mass-casualties, woebetide their ass.

[+and-then]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/05/iraq-expel-us-troops-iran-gen-qasem-soleimanis-killing/2817992001/

Gee, I wonder if this order will include Iranians as well?  If we are to leave, then it should be for good.  Raze every installation and that includes the Embassy.  Scorched earth and let the desert reclaim its own.  We should also move our forces north to the Kurdish areas and begin a major building program to include an airbase and storage for weapons and troops.  Iran doesn't get to take Iraq on the cheap.  Make them fight for it 

[Tatetopa]

19 minutes ago, and then said:

Cry me a river.  The "they" you speak of aren't the average Iranian and you should understand that.  These people in their government are SLAUGHTERING that "they" as we speak.  Crushing them brutally for just protesting.  That government deserves no pity nor mercy.  All it would take to remove the sanctions is for them to accept a role in the world OTHER than regional Hegemon and they won't play that game.  It's they who will choose the all or nothing route.  We seem to have access to enough intel to know if they make a dash for the "finish line" where their nuclear ambitions are concerned so if they try that, yes, they will probably go out in a blaze of "glory". 

Cry your own river, I won't do it for you.  Didn't say I was crying, didn't say I care.  Just stating a fact.  We have done for Iran.  I do understand  the government and the average citizens. I know a few of those of those citizens.  I worked with an Iranian Christian engineer and an Iranian Muslim engineer, both fled the regime.  Didn't say the government wasn't deserving of removal.  Didn't say it wasn't terrible nor that the government is not slaughtering their own people. Didn't even say that it was not the government's choice to bring our wrath down upon them.   All your arguments are true..

It is also true no matter how much you say  that you sympathize with them and feel no ill will to them, it is the citizens that will suffer first and most.  Just a fact of life andthen.

They could rise up and overthrow the government maybe, so could the North Koreans.  Will they do it?  Not too likely.    My Christian friend told me this. There are spies and informants in every neighborhood, sometimes loyal to the government, sometimes just threatened and scared. Families get threatened, sometimes people disappear.  People have to be very wary who they talk to and what they write in media.  Makes an organized resistance very hard.

Also you are right, the government has seemingly made the choice.  They moved themselves into a corner, now it is check. Maybe they will recant.  Is it likely that stubborn,  powerful bigots steeped in hate and power will have a change of heart because their citizens are threatened? The king can sacrifice all of the pawns, it won't change the end.

 

[Tatetopa]

33 minutes ago, Guyver said:

Because if they actually are successful in creating nuclear weapons, they’ll probably use them on us or Israel first.  If it weren’t for that, I’d say just pull out completely and let them have that part of the world to themselves.  

On the other hand, if one is concerned about human rights.....it’s a good reason to actively oppose those barbarians.

They will not.  Andthen is also right about that.  We will not allow it.  Israel will not allow it.  Meantime they can fume and posture and threaten, but if they progress, we will know.  

On the other hand, If one is concerned about human rights Guyver, what should one do?  Oppose repressive governments, overthrow them, sanction them, contain them, resist them?  How do you actively oppose barbarians?  

Do you step in to every human rights abuse, or stand back and offer support to people to solve their own problems?  It rather seems like a lot of innocent people get hurt no matter what choice we make. 

[Duke Wellington]

2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Sadly, @DarkHunter, methinks the Iranians have been lying about JCPOA since day one, and betraying the agreement all along. 

I predict over the coming weeks a senior American figure will be assassinated.

Followed by Iran detonating an example of its new nuclear deterrent.

[Setton]

Amazed they stayed as long as they did after the US tore it up for no reason. 

[+and-then]

54 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I predict over the coming weeks a senior American figure will be assassinated.

Followed by Iran detonating an example of its new nuclear deterrent.

If that happens, Iran will be destroyed.  If Iran attempts to hit Trump, they may well get nuked.  

[Tatetopa]

2 hours ago, and then said:

The "they" you speak of aren't the average Iranian and you should understand that.  These people in their government are SLAUGHTERING that "they" as we speak.  Crushing them brutally for just protesting.  That government deserves no pity nor mercy.

There is the one thing I wish the president had made clear in his tweets andthen, and the one and only thing I object to.

In one breath he says he admires the Iranian people.

In the next, he does not say he will destroy all of the air bases and naval ports and army bases and nuclear facilities.  That might have been an answer to preventing Iranian military adventures. Would hardly seem surprising.

Instead, he said, I will destroy sites that are culturally important to your people, implying your ancient mosques and monuments and ancient cities.  Not all, just some number up to 52.  

That hardly seems a way to get the citizens in the street on your side.  It seems rather provocative and spoiling for escalation. 

What is does not indicate is much care or respect for the common, oppressed, young, Westernized,  Iranian citizen who might be our natural ally.