Did Iran shoot down Ukraine passenger plane?

[Eldorado]

"Doubts have been cast over Iranian assertions that a deadly Ukrainian plane crash near Tehran was the result of technical failures, with independent aviation operations experts saying a “shootdown” was the most likely explanation.

"Iranian officials said technical issues were behind the Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) crash, which happened shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International airport on Wednesday morning, killing all 176 people on board.

"The Ukrainian embassy in Tehran initially echoed this stance, but later retracted its statement, and instead said it was for an official commission to determine the cause of the accident."

Full monty at the UK Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-shootdown-ukraine-boeing-latest-a9275051.html

 

"Ukraine refuses to rule out Boeing 737 was shot down by missile near Tehran killing 176"

At the UK Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/

 

"Iran says it will not give black box from crashed airliner to Boeing"

At the UK Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran-says-it-will-not-give-black-box-from-crashed-airliner-to-boeing

Edited January 8, 2020 by Eldorado

[Buzz_Light_Year]

Well Iran refuses to hand over the black-box and as far as I'm concerned there can be only one reason for that.

[+and-then]

Some Iranians were a little "nervous in the service".  RIP for the poor victims and their families.  

[Vorg]

It might have been a catastrophic engine failure that punctured the wing fuel cell damaging many components. The trajectory of the aircraft was shallow, showing a fight to maintain altitude due to passenger and fuel loading upon takeoff, and they were just a few miles from the airport.  I doubt a missile would give them the trajectory they had. much less any chance of control.

Edited January 8, 2020 by South Alabam

[.AKUMA.]

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Well Iran refuses to hand over the black-box and as far as I'm concerned there can be only one reason for that.

Have you been paying attention to the news lately? the US and Iran arnt exactley on talking terms.....Boeing is a US defence corporation.

Edited January 8, 2020 by .AKUMA.

[Habitat]

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Well Iran refuses to hand over the black-box and as far as I'm concerned there can be only one reason for that.

That seems to be a rush to judgement, they may be willing to hand it over to another country besides the USA.

[Setton]

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Well Iran refuses to hand over the black-box and as far as I'm concerned there can be only one reason for that.

It's standard practice for local authorities to carry out the investigation, not hand the black boxes to the manufacturer. Nothing unusual in Iran not turning them over. 

[Buzz_Light_Year]

22 minutes ago, .AKUMA. said:

Have you been paying attention to the news lately? the US and Iran arnt exactley on talking terms.....Boeing is a US defence corporation.

It's a Ukrainian plane and the black box should be made available to Ukrainian authorities.

[.AKUMA.]

12 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

It's a Ukrainian plane and the black box should be made available to Ukrainian authorities.

And likely will, Iran has simply refused to give it to the states, and ofcourse Boeing will rush at the chance of trying to retrieve the black box, they would want to quell any misconceptions it was a manufacturing fault that led to the incident.

Edited January 8, 2020 by .AKUMA.

[+Razman]

As far as I read , there was mostly Iranians on board.

 

[Kittens Are Jerks]

There were 63 Canadians on board (almost half were from Edmonton). Flags in Ottawa are flying at half-mast. 

I can't even begin to guess at what might have happened. Prime Minister Trudeau stated that Canada will play a role in the investigation, and that it was dangerous to speculate on possible causes. Just the same, Air Canada has altered its routes in the region.

So very tragic.

[simplybill]

It’s beginning to look like a missile strike. I wonder why Iranian ATC was allowing planes to take off? You’d think someone in their version of the FAA would have warned them about the missiles. 

[+and-then]

8 hours ago, Habitat said:

That seems to be a rush to judgement, they may be willing to hand it over to another country besides the USA.

If they do then we'll have an answer that most people can trust.  

[+and-then]

4 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

There were 63 Canadians on board (almost half were from Edmonton). Flags in Ottawa are flying at half-mast. 

I can't even begin to guess at what might have happened. Prime Minister Trudeau stated that Canada will play a role in the investigation, and that it was dangerous to speculate on possible causes. Just the same, Air Canada has altered its routes in the region.

So very tragic.

Regardless of what caused the crash, that particular way of dying horrifies me.  They had what seemed like minutes to know what was coming.  I can't imagine a more horrific way to go.  Especially if they had their children aboard with them  

[Buzz_Light_Year]

11 hours ago, Setton said:

It's standard practice for local authorities to carry out the investigation, not hand the black boxes to the manufacturer. Nothing unusual in Iran not turning them over. 

There are but a few places that can retrieve the data. I could only find two, one is in Paris France and the other is in Washington D.C.. So if Iran wants the information from the recorders then they'll have to turn them over to someone or risk being accused of a coverup.

[RoofGardener]

The 737 is an incredibly popular make of aircraft, with over 7000 in service, and with a VERY impressive safety record. A failure of both engines on take-off, in a clear sky with no precipitation/storms, is a very unusual (possibly even unprecedented) occurrence. 

 

[.AKUMA.]

Quite mysterious to be honest, unsure what to make of it, the planes transponder switching off is concerning, as it hints towards some kind of malicious activity, the plane being hit by a missle of somekind is unlikely, as the wreckage shows the plane likley hit the ground completely intact, which could lead to a potential hijacking attempt?, yet this doesnt explain eyewitness accounts of seeing the plane on fire? which raises more questions, if some form of mechanical failure was the cause, and it could very well be human error in maintenance as we have seen so many times before, but then why would the transponder switch off?? hmm so many questions.

[RoofGardener]

13 minutes ago, .AKUMA. said:

Quite mysterious to be honest, unsure what to make of it, the planes transponder switching off is concerning, as it hints towards some kind of malicious activity, the plane being hit by a missle of somekind is unlikely, as the wreckage shows the plane likley hit the ground completely intact, which could lead to a potential hijacking attempt?, yet this doesnt explain eyewitness accounts of seeing the plane on fire? which raises more questions, if some form of mechanical failure was the cause, and it could very well be human error in maintenance as we have seen so many times before, but then why would the transponder switch off?? hmm so many questions.

If the plane HAD been hit by an anti-aircraft missile, then it is highly likely that one engine would be destroyed, and possibly the surrounding wing. This is particularly true for a heat-seeking missile, which would naturally home in on one of the engines. If this somehow caused the second engine to shut down, then the aircraft would have lost all electrical power, and hence would probably stop transmitting telemetry/transponder data. 

The Plane DOES have an auxiliary power unit (a little propeller that drops down into the airstream, which powers a generator). However, this close to the ground, it seems unlikely the crew would have time to deploy it, and restart the (surviving) engine. In addition, the APC would only power critical systems, and would probably NOT power the transponder ? 

Edited January 9, 2020 by RoofGardener

[Buzz_Light_Year]

18 minutes ago, .AKUMA. said:

Quite mysterious to be honest, unsure what to make of it, the planes transponder switching off is concerning, as it hints towards some kind of malicious activity, the plane being hit by a missle of somekind is unlikely, as the wreckage shows the plane likley hit the ground completely intact, which could lead to a potential hijacking attempt?, yet this doesnt explain eyewitness accounts of seeing the plane on fire? which raises more questions, if some form of mechanical failure was the cause, and it could very well be human error in maintenance as we have seen so many times before, but then why would the transponder switch off?? hmm so many questions.

Fuel is stored in the 737 wing sections, so if a catastrophic engine explosion were to happen a rupture of the tanks would be possible engulfing the plane in a fire ball. From what I seen in the video the plane didn't fall from the sky but appeared to have a glide descent.

The answers won't be known until the Iranians release the black boxes for examination.

[RoofGardener]

I've been trying to google cases where both engines fail on takeoff. 

This is an Airbus incident, not a Boeing, but it has one interesting aspect. The plane landed in a corn field, with no fatalities. But the distance of the corn field from the Airport is somewhat similar to the Tehran crash ? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49369172

[.AKUMA.]

8 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

If the plane HAD been hit by an anti-aircraft missile, then it is highly likely that one engine would be destroyed, and possibly the surrounding wing. This is particularly true for a heat-seeking missile, which would naturally home in on one of the engines. If this somehow caused the second engine to shut down, then the aircraft would have lost all electrical power, and hence would probably stop transmitting telemetry/transponder data. 

The Plane DOES have an auxiliary power unit (a little propeller that drops down into the airstream, which powers a generator). However, this close to the ground, it seems unlikely the crew would have time to deploy it, and restart the (surviving) engine. In addition, the APC would only power critical systems, and would probably NOT power the transponder ? 

Yeah thats the thing i was playing around with that theory too, and yes the APC would power the transponder, so its a little strange, the flight trajectory indicates no deviation in altitude indicating that there would not have been any issue with the engines, which leads me to believe a possible cabin fire??

[.AKUMA.]

4 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Fuel is stored in the 737 wing sections, so if a catastrophic engine explosion were to happen a rupture of the tanks would be possible engulfing the plane in a fire ball. From what I seen in the video the plane didn't fall from the sky but appeared to have a glide descent.

The answers won't be known until the Iranians release the black boxes for examination.

Yes you are right, and the potential fire could lead to damage in the relays that power the transponder, all we know is that some kind of fire was invloved the cause of it is yet to be established.

[Setton]

Reading today that the plane attempted to return to the airport, which suggests pilots still had control, at least initially. 

Wondering now if it could have been a technical fault first then shot down. 

If you're an Iranian air defence crew, on the night you're attacking the US, and you see a plane coming in fast and low along an unexpected path, what would you do? 

[Kittens Are Jerks]

6 hours ago, and then said:

Regardless of what caused the crash, that particular way of dying horrifies me.  They had what seemed like minutes to know what was coming.  I can't imagine a more horrific way to go.  Especially if they had their children aboard with them  

I can't imagine what it would be like knowing you have but a few minutes left to live. Knowing that your children are about to die as well must be the worst possible hell ever. People freak out over the slightest turbulence, imagine the panic seeing the plane on fire. I feel very badly for the victims and their families. The majority of passengers were connecting to Canada. If not for what happened, they would be here now, far away from all the nonsense going on in that region.

[DarkHunter]

Ukrainian officials sent to investigate the crash have said they found no initial evidence of engine failure.  

Iran seems to be lieing about the plane turning around, no distress call was picked up and the flight tracking data available so far doesnt show the plane turning around but continuing its ascent normally.  Also a pilot who took off minutes earlier is saying he saw the aircraft ascending before just suddenly blowing up.