Did Iran shoot down Ukraine passenger plane?

[TigerBright19]

My guess, is the guy who fired the Iranian missile was so on edge that he did not take a moment to think.  The plane was taking off and leaving.  It should have posed no threat.  Perhaps the missile controls had an automatic homing guidance system and when he fired it towards Iraq the homing system accidentally sent the missile towards the plane.

Could this ever happen in Europe or America during a 9/11 style crisis by accident?  No doubt the people who say that flight 93 was shot down will be looking at the wreckage of this plane to see if the debris field is similar to flight 93.

 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Aaron2016

[+and-then]

6 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

My guess, is the guy who fired the Iranian missile was so on edge that he did not take a moment to think.  The plane was taking off after all and leaving.  It should have posed no threat.  Perhaps the missile controls had an automatic homing guidance system and when he fired it towards Iraq the homing system accidentally sent the missile towards the plane.

Could this ever happen in Europe or America during a 9/11 style crisis by accident?  No doubt the people who say that flight 93 was shot down will be looking at the wreckage of this plane to see if the debris field is similar to flight 93.

 

I guess it would depend on the experience and training of the operator and the "fog of war" factor.  I'd like to believe that we wouldn't put inexperienced people in charge of such systems and/or that there would be failsafes built in that would not allow a launch against a target squawking civilian IFF codes.

[Setton]

7 minutes ago, and then said:

there would be failsafes built in that would not allow a launch against a target squawking civilian IFF codes

Surely then you wouldn't be able to shoot down the hijacked plane either? 

[TigerBright19]

A military blunder like this probably happened.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Aaron2016

[Habitat]

Moral of the story, don't fly civilian planes across territory where war is happening or imminent ! You'd think Ukraine of all places, would adhere rigidly to that. after what happened there.

[DarkHunter]

9 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

A military blunder like this probably happened.

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure the Tor M1 has that kind of ability, from everything I read on the system it needs a constant radar lock from the launch platform with the only radar in the missile being for the proximity fuse

[TigerBright19]

5 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Not sure the Tor M1 has that kind of ability, from everything I read on the system it needs a constant radar lock from the launch platform with the only radar in the missile being for the proximity fuse

Interesting.  Does Iran have the ability to repel incoming missiles off target by scrambling and deflecting them off their heading?  I used to play a video game called Silent Hunter (commanding a U-boat) and each time I fired a torpedo towards the enemy ship, it would send out a signal which threw the torpedo off its course and it deflected towards a different target.

 

 

[pallidin]

Yeah, sure seems like a horrible accident by the Iranian military... not meaning to take down a commercial flight.

[+Razman]

On the link of the supposed video , all the posters keep questioning why he would be filming right then and there , but it looks like he is filming the missiles being launched towards Iraq as they seem to be in the video.

 

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, Habitat said:

Moral of the story, don't fly civilian planes across territory where war is happening or imminent ! You'd think Ukraine of all places, would adhere rigidly to that. after what happened there.

It just boggles the mind that the administration for the airline didn't take more precautions.  My guess is that they were either told nothing about the military situation or they were given an ultimatum on their scheduling of flights.  All I know is that there has only been one other air crash that horrified me more than this one in sympathy for what those poor people experienced.  It was a ValuJet commuter from Miami to Atlanta with 110 aboard.  Chemical oxygen generators in the hold were improperly packaged and they heated up and the aircraft hold burned through the floors.  Those people suffered from fire and smoke inhalation before the plane even hit the water in the Everglades   

[Habitat]

29 minutes ago, and then said:

It just boggles the mind that the administration for the airline didn't take more precautions.  My guess is that they were either told nothing about the military situation or they were given an ultimatum on their scheduling of flights.  All I know is that there has only been one other air crash that horrified me more than this one in sympathy for what those poor people experienced.  It was a ValuJet commuter from Miami to Atlanta with 110 aboard.  Chemical oxygen generators in the hold were improperly packaged and they heated up and the aircraft hold burned through the floors.  Those people suffered from fire and smoke inhalation before the plane even hit the water in the Everglades   

Maybe the concern was that the plane would come under air attack, left in Iran. Trump says the plane was flying over a "rough neighbourhood", an explanation that would never have occurred to me !

[+and-then]

13 hours ago, Setton said:

Reading today that the plane attempted to return to the airport, which suggests pilots still had control, at least initially. 

Wondering now if it could have been a technical fault first then shot down. 

If you're an Iranian air defence crew, on the night you're attacking the US, and you see a plane coming in fast and low along an unexpected path, what would you do? 

On THIS I agree.  I cannot imagine ANY military personnel that would intentionally murder a plane load of civilians unless ordered to on pain of their own death.  Not even the Iranian military would do that, IMO.  Maybe I'm just being naive but I just can't imagine it.

[+joc]

4 hours ago, Setton said:

Surely then you wouldn't be able to shoot down the hijacked plane either? 

You just can't believe Iran could accidentally shoot down  an airliner taking off from their airport?...when they were on high-alert...

...okay....

[Grim Reaper 6]

4 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

My guess, is the guy who fired the Iranian missile was so on edge that he did not take a moment to think.  The plane was taking off and leaving.  It should have posed no threat.  Perhaps the missile controls had an automatic homing guidance system and when he fired it towards Iraq the homing system accidentally sent the missile towards the plane.

Could this ever happen in Europe or America during a 9/11 style crisis by accident?  No doubt the people who say that flight 93 was shot down will be looking at the wreckage of this plane to see if the debris field is similar to flight 93.

 

Its impossible that a missile fired at Iraq accidentally hit that plane that's not how these weapons work. Missiles attacking a location use a GPS device, and the missile is guided by Satellites to its target. When a missile is fired at an aircraft it uses a combination of radar and its ability to seek the aircrafts heat signature. Then when it is close to the target it explodes and sends shrapnel in a big burst like a shot gun blast. 

So no, this wasn't a missile fired toward Iraq, it was a situation where for some reason a missile battery near the Airport fired a missile at and destroyed that plane. It is really that simple, but it's also very very tragic that so many people died because of a mistake, and in my opinion it's not excusable in anyway. 

Peace

[Grim Reaper 6]

3 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

A military blunder like this probably happened.

 

 

 

 

 

This shows that you have no idea what your talking about, do some research before you post information like this, it really makes you look bad.

peace

[Grim Reaper 6]

3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Not sure the Tor M1 has that kind of ability, from everything I read on the system it needs a constant radar lock from the launch platform with the only radar in the missile being for the proximity fuse

It doesn't, in fact no missile system would act like that. Missiles fired at locations use GPS and satellites for guidance. Missiles fired at aircraft use a combination of radar and heat seeking capabilities. It that simple, don't listen to these people's inaccurate and uninformed ideas / opinions.

peace. 

[skookum]

The cockpit voice recorder is needed. From my understanding of that missile it explodes in close proximity to the target. The shrapnel rips through the target damaging flight controls, engines etc. Punctured fuel tanks could have ignited as leaking fuel makes contact with the engines. The crew could have had some control before the fire engulfed the whole aircraft. That would explain how it flew on for some distance. 

If the pictures are genuine it clearly shows parts of BUK TOR 1M if you compare them to library footage. 

[DarkHunter]

17 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

It doesn't, in fact no missile system would act like that. Missiles fired at locations use GPS and satellites for guidance. Missiles fired at aircraft use a combination of radar and heat seeking capabilities. It that simple, don't listen to these people's inaccurate and uninformed ideas / opinions.

peace. 

It really depends on how you interrupt his post but even then you arent entirely correct yourself.  

Quite a few Russian made anti air missile systems can be blind fired with no radar or heat lock before firing and acquire a target mid flight from the missiles own guidance system which is how I initially interrupted his post as suggesting.  I will admit I didnt look super close at the picture.

As for what you are saying it's not quite that simple.  The Russian S-400 can target both air and ground targets and I'm pretty sure it can also be blind fired to acquire an air target mid flight.  In theory if an inexperienced crew were to use it it isnt impossible they could be trying to target a ground target and have it acquire an air target from it's own missile guidance system.  But since it was a Tor M1 and not an S-400 it's really an insignificant point.

Edited January 10, 2020 by DarkHunter

[Grim Reaper 6]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

It really depends on how you interrupt his post but even then you arent entirely correct yourself.  

Quite a few Russian made anti air missile systems can be blind fired with no radar or heat lock before firing and acquire a target mid flight from the missiles own guidance system which is how I initially interrupted his post as suggesting.  I will admit I didnt look super close at the picture.

As for what you are saying it's not quite that simple.  The Russian S-400 can target both air and ground targets and I'm pretty sure it can also be blind fired to acquire an air target mid flight.  In theory if an inexperienced crew were to use it it isnt impossible they could be trying to target a ground target and have it acquire an air target from it's own guidance system.  But since it was a Tor M1 and not an S-400 it's really an insignificant point.

That's not possible, like I said when firing at ground targets the guidance system for that uses GPS and satellites, these missiles don't have heat seeking capabilities, air targets use radar and heat seeking capabilities. Blind firing missiles are missiles wasted they will not hit anything. I have 23 years of active duty military under my belt, I have a decent amount of knowledge about this subject I don't have to speculate. But again I will say there is a reason why they have ground attack missiles and ground to air missiles there is no in between and one won't work for the other, they are not designed that way.

peace. 

[Raptor Witness]

 

Ukrainian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian Tor-M1 missile - Defense Blog 1-9-2020

Suspicious wreckage found at Ukraine plane crash impact site appears to be the nose cone section and control fins of 9M331 surface-to-air missile. It is employed by the Russian-made Tor-M1 mobile air defense system and features a semi-automatic command to line of sight (SACLOS) guidance system. This system currently in service of the Iranian military deployed at a military base near the crash site.

Satellite Imagery of Crash Site - https://twitter.com/gena_d/status/1215036768338268161?s=20

Edited January 10, 2020 by Raptor Witness

[+susieice]

Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, agrees that the plane appears to have been shot down. There were 63 Canadians on board the plane.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/highly-iran-shot-ukrainian-airliner-us-official-confirms/story?id=68173173&cid=clicksource_3029898_null_dp_hed

Sky News says three Britons have been identified as passengers. It lists the number of victims of all the countries who had people on board.

 

[+susieice]

David Muir did a very good report on the crash tonight. There is video showing a missile streaking to the plane and the plane flaming as it crashes. A US satellite captured the two missiles going towards the plane. The crash scene was rapidly cleaned up. (evidence?)

 

Edited January 10, 2020 by susieice

[toast]

Vid showing the supposed rocket hit of flight PS752/09, published by The Aviation Herald

Distance event/observer approx 3300 meters.

 

Edited January 10, 2020 by toast

[bee]

 

Those poor people who died on the airliner must have been trying to get out of Iran before the
potential U-Know-What hit the fan.... but then they copped it.....

The Air Traffic Control over Iran should have had better communications with the military...
if they were going to let civilian airliners take off..... 

I suppose it's easy to say that now, from where I am... and in a funny kind of way... the deaths
of those passengers are helping to shift emotions away from war because it was such a tragedy
to come out of nowhere at a critical time... and Iran looks incompetent to have let it happen...
so that might calm them down a bit...?

 

[Setton]

4 hours ago, joc said:

You just can't believe Iran could accidentally shoot down  an airliner taking off from their airport?...when they were on high-alert...

...okay....

You really need to work on this 'reading' thing. 

Use your finger and sound out the letters if it helps.