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Manwon Lender

Coronavirus, what we need to know

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Manwon Lender

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Manwon Lender

Latest Travel Update issued by the CDC, travel to areas in China Hubei Province has been upgraded to Level 3 as of 27 Jan 2020. 

Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-wuhan-china

Updated Map from the CDC where the Virus has been State by State. There is currently 110 people in the US who have or are being tested as of 27 Jan 2020.

People Under Investigation (PUI) in the United States* currently there are 26 states where Americans have been tested or found to be infected†

1) 5 people have tested positive.

2) 32 have tested negative

3) 73 people are waiting for results of the test.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html#states-confirmed-cases

Global map showing locations of known infections as 27 Jan 2020

Peace

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html

 

 

 

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Manwon Lender

Current CDC Risk Assessment as of 27 Jan 2020

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. Chinese officials report that sustained person-to-person spread in the community is occurring in China. Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

What the American Public should expect over the up coming weeks.

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. Given what has occurred previously with MERS and SARS, it’s likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur. It would not be surprising if person-to-person spread in the United States were to occur. Cases in healthcare settings, like hospitals, may also occur.

CDC Responce

  • CDC is closely monitoring this situation and is working with WHO.
  • CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management Structure on January 7, 2020. On January 21, 2020, CDC activated its Emergency Response System to better provide ongoing support to the 2019-nCoV response.
  • CDC is updating its travel health notices related to this outbreak as the situation evolves.
  • CDC also is conducting entry screening of passengers on direct and connecting flights from Wuhan, China to five major airports: Atlanta (ATL), Chicago (ORD), Los Angeles, (LAX) New York city (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO).
  • CDC issued an updated interim Health Alert Notice (HAN) Advisory to inform state and local health departments and health care providers about this outbreak on January 17, 2020.
  • CDC has deployed multidisciplinary teams to Washington, Illinois, California, and Arizona to assist health departments with clinical management, contact tracing, and communications.
  • CDC has developed a real time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose 2019-nCoV in respiratory and serum samples from clinical specimens. On January 24, 2020, CDC publicly posted the assay protocol for this test. Currently, testing for this virus must take place at CDC, but in the coming days and weeks, CDC will share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency’s International Reagent Resourceexternal icon.
  • CDC uploaded the entire genome of the virus from the first reported case in the United States to GenBank.
  • CDC also is growing the virus in cell culture, which is necessary for further studies, including for additional genetic characterization.

CDC Recommends 

While the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time, everyone can do their part to help us respond to this emerging public health threat:

Peace

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Manwon Lender

New Update according to the CDC 27 Jan 2020:

It appears that the incubation period is now 5 - 14 days and people who are infected even though they are showing no symptoms are still contagious. So when you consider this along with the fact that the Virus can survive outside the Human Body for as long as 5 days because it is enveloped, this makes this Virus extremely dangerous and it also greatly increases the possibility of transmission.

Note:  Since it is now known that this Virus in enveloped ( Surrounded by a mucus membrane ) hand sanitizer is not really effective in killing this Virus on your hands or other Skin areas. Only a good quality soap, clean water, and a good scrubbIng will kill and remove the Virus from skin areas completely.

The best method of defense against the Virus if it becomes a major problem in the United States is a quality Surgical facial masks and rapp around eye protection that seals to your face are needed to prevent the Virus from entering your eyes via liquid droplets caused by an infected person coughing or sneezing around you. Also keep this in mind, it has been stated that when a person coughs or sneezes the liquid droplets an travel up to 7 feet.

Peace

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toast
22 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Here's an interesting Video supposedly from Wohan, the video isn't verified.

Peace

Just for information (and to avoid another CT here): the workers are dressed in compliance to BSL2 or 3 rules, but not 4.

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Manwon Lender
10 minutes ago, toast said:

Just for information (and to avoid another CT here): the workers are dressed in compliance to BSL2 or 3 rules, but not 4.

That's correct, but I didn't go into details because I was note sure of the authenticity of the video. But thanks for bringing that out, I should have also done so. Obviously if they were dressed for level 4 containment they would have had an externally supplied Oxygen tanks as part if their over pressure suits which they have neither in the Video.

Here us link to the Biosafty requirement for levels 1-4.

 

https://consteril.com/biosafety-levels-difference/

Peace

 

Edited by Manwon Lender
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Saru

@Manwon Lender - please avoid copy and pasting large amounts of text from external sources, one paragraph and a link is generally enough.

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Manwon Lender
2 minutes ago, Saru said:

@Manwon Lender - please avoid copy and pasting large amounts of text from external sources, one paragraph and a link is generally enough.

No problem, I didn't realize there was an issue with it, it won't happen again.

Peace

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moonman

For some reason, I'm just not worried about this latest SARS wannabe.

Edited by moonman
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Not A Rockstar

I have observed patterns in life, over the years, of things happening in smaller size over and over before one comes through really hard. It is almost as if Nature is giving us (or the virus? LOL)  practice. Examples are like hurricanes, or earthquakes.

It came to me last night as I was reading over info about this virus, that this is probably going to die back before it becomes a pandemic causing major death and destruction and my concern is that we can become less concerned as a result.

It needs to be taken seriously, each time. Just posting to remind us all that it does not always happen to someone else or somewhere else. It does us good to pay attention, learn and maybe think and prepare better for next time.

Just sharing a thought. 

 

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Not A Rockstar
7 minutes ago, moonman said:

For some reason, I'm just not worried about this latest SARS wannabe.

I saw this as I posted the above :). Yes, I have a sense this is going to pass, also, hence my thoughts in my post. I had not seen yours before posting.

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and then

I just came across this one.  This guy sounds reasonable and rational and if his info is correct then this could be much worse than is being admitted.

Starts at about 3 minute mark.

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Manwon Lender
5 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

I saw this as I posted the above :). Yes, I have a sense this is going to pass, also, hence my thoughts in my post. I had not seen yours before posting.

I truely hope your right, but I am going to continue to post up to date accurate information for anyone who may have interest. I hope some of this information may help others, and it can if they follow some of the personal guidance that has been posted like the video you posted and the CDC guidance I have posted. The only reason I started this thread was because the other threads on the subject were non-sense and almost completely inaccurate.

I don't understand why people want to over react to things like this, it only confuses other people and serves no purpose. I am not worried myself if things do become serious I have everything I need for myself and my wife, along with the knowledge of how to survive in the worst case scenario. But I doubt many do and the time to think things isn't when the bottom falls out. 

Peace

 

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Manwon Lender
2 hours ago, and then said:

I just came across this one.  This guy sounds reasonable and rational and if his info is correct then this could be much worse than is being admitted.

Starts at about 3 minute mark.

Hey Partner, hope all is going well. The video is only partially correct, both the 2019-nCoV and SARS could not have started in a Wet Market. Both have been Genetically Linked to Bats by the CDC, so while those markets are certainly very unsanitary they are not the cause of either out break. How Bats are directly involved isn't clear at this point, but in time the answer will be found. The biggest problem is the fact that they have not and most likely never will identify patient zero. If they had taken the time to do that in the beginning most if not all questions would be answered. 

Do I think that China is in cover up mode like they did during the SARS outbreak, I am not certain. However, I am suspicious because if they were not hiding something they would not have shutdown all social media and cell phone use in the affected areas. If it were up to me, we as a Nation should not allow anyone traveling from any country that has known infections to enter the United States. I would recommend this because with an incubation period of 5 - 14 days without showing symptoms, but still being able to infect others throughout that period there is no way to know if someone is ill or not.

This is very dangerous and doing basic checks at airports which consist of mainly looking for symptoms of a cold or checking for fever isn't going to cut it with a incubation period like this Virus has. Even if this Virus Passes, and things go back to normal with the number of new Viruses that have appeared from know where in the last 20 years it should still be a major wakeup call. Medical experts have been warning the Worlds Governments for many  years that these events where coming and that they are only going to get worst.

Well I hope around the World these events are being taken as a wakeup call, while we still are uncertain how serious this event is going to be, the next one could take out a very large portion of the Worlds population. Especially if Governments are not being forth coming about the effects that are occurring within their boarders. 

Peace

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Manwon Lender
6 hours ago, moonman said:

For some reason, I'm just not worried about this latest SARS wannabe.

It's better to learn what you can before things get really bad. Because at that point it is to late and trying to catch up will not be an option. Do you think the Government has some magical plan to save everyone?

Well they don't and in the case of a Pandemic it's going to be every person for themselves and no one is going to help anyone else. Knowledge is the only thing that will save anyone, and unfortunately very few Americans have the necessary knowledge on this  subject to have any chance to survive a worst cases scenario. 

Peace

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rashore
6 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

It's better to learn what you can before things get really bad. Because at that point it is to late and trying to catch up will not be an option. Do you think the Government has some magical plan to save everyone?

Well they don't and in the case of a Pandemic it's going to be every person for themselves and no one is going to help anyone else. Knowledge is the only thing that will save anyone, and unfortunately very few Americans have the necessary knowledge on this  subject to have any chance to survive a worst cases scenario. 

Peace

No magic, gov don’t dabble in that... but yes, they do have agencies and plans for if there is a pandemic. A couple sites for those not in the know to read up on.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/planning-preparedness/regulations-laws-during-pandemic.htm

http://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/pahpa/Pages/default.aspx

 

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Manwon Lender
18 minutes ago, rashore said:

No magic, gov don’t dabble in that... but yes, they do have agencies and plans for if there is a pandemic. A couple sites for those not in the know to read up on.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/planning-preparedness/regulations-laws-during-pandemic.htm

http://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/pahpa/Pages/default.aspx

 

Thanks for the information, but do you really think they are prepared for a major pandemic?

All I have to do is remember Hurricane Katrina, and that shows me how prepared our Government is if a worst case scenario occurs, and that was only a case of poor logistical planning. In my opinion if a worst case scenario ever occurs where a Pandemic is concerned everything that is written online or on paper will go out the window because our Nations medical facilities will be to overwhelmed to react properly. So in the end it will be up to individuals to take the necessary actions to protect their own families.

Peace

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rashore
20 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Thanks for the information, but do you really think they are prepared for a major pandemic?

All I have to do is remember Hurricane Katrina, and that shows me how prepared our Government is if a worst case scenario occurs, and that was only a case of poor logistical planning. In my opinion if a worst case scenario ever occurs where a Pandemic is concerned everything that is written online or on paper will go out the window because our Nations medical facilities will be to overwhelmed to react properly. So in the end it will be up to individuals to take the necessary actions to protect their own families.

Peace

Hurricanes aren’t part of pandemics... so different agencies and authorities than the ones that handle pandemics, just like the agencies that handled 9-11 aren’t the ones that handle weather emergencies or health and medical crisis. Weather emergencies are often, but not always, state declared before federal level steps in. Pandemics are usually handled at federal level first with the HHS, CDC, and FDA.

I do think we are better able to handle pandemics. The agencies and their plans, sure... but medical facilities get regular training and drills for if there’s an outbreak. We do handle smaller outbreaks pretty regular of flus and non-vaccination outbreaks, so the system is better prepared for it than devastating hurricanes or 9-11 style attacks. It’s not the greatest, but better than the fend for yourself scenarios.

I do think this will get a bit worse before it gets better, particularly since it’s happening during flu and cold season for a lot of places.

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Not A Rockstar
2 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

I truely hope your right, but I am going to continue to post up to date accurate information for anyone who may have interest. I hope some of this information may help others, and it can if they follow some of the personal guidance that has been posted like the video you posted and the CDC guidance I have posted. The only reason I started this thread was because the other threads on the subject were non-sense and almost completely inaccurate.

I don't understand why people want to over react to things like this, it only confuses other people and serves no purpose. I am not worried myself if things do become serious I have everything I need for myself and my wife, along with the knowledge of how to survive in the worst case scenario. But I doubt many do and the time to think things isn't when the bottom falls out. 

Peace

 

For sure, I am all for being prepared and learning and improving where we can through this latest dilemma. I just mean it is not a false alarm, but a practice run, is how I sense it out. My family is fine, as well. People wish to blow it off, but, one of these times it will blow back :/  Seems like we are overdue for a plague.

This is what? The third run of it? It will be bad. We will see worse I suspect, in later runs. 

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Manwon Lender
1 minute ago, rashore said:

Hurricanes aren’t part of pandemics... so different agencies and authorities than the ones that handle pandemics, just like the agencies that handled 9-11 aren’t the ones that handle weather emergencies or health and medical crisis. Weather emergencies are often, but not always, state declared before federal level steps in. Pandemics are usually handled at federal level first with the HHS, CDC, and FDA.

I do think we are better able to handle pandemics. The agencies and their plans, sure... but medical facilities get regular training and drills for if there’s an outbreak. We do handle smaller outbreaks pretty regular of flus and non-vaccination outbreaks, so the system is better prepared for it than devastating hurricanes or 9-11 style attacks. It’s not the greatest, but better than the fend for yourself scenarios.

I do think this will get a bit worse before it gets better, particularly since it’s happening during flu and cold season for a lot of places.

I don't agree with you at all, while medical facilities can handle increased traffic. A Pandemic will overwhelm their resources and they are not prepared for that situation.  Also when Catrina happened the disaster was immediately declared a National Disaster, and the Federal Government took control by sending FEMA who was suppose to be prepared for anything. It didn't even take day before it was obvious they couldn't handle the crisis. 

If a serious Pandemic ever occurs, which I hope it doesn't I am certain it will be to much to handle. First, in the worst case situation many Government employees will take care of their families first, and that will only add to the overwhelmed medical facilities. My career specialty during the 23 years I spent in the Military, was geared in many ways to a event like we are talking about. In fact while I was on active duty they paid for my degrees in microbiology and in chemistry.

I was in a special branch of the US Army Nuclear, Biological and. Chemical Corps. My mission was identification, Location. Investigation and containment of hazards that were discovered by or that could effect US Soldiers in their Theater of Operations. So I have some practical experience in dealing with situations like this due to my service doing so in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Libia. I also understand the procedures that would be implemented in the case of a National Emergency where a Pandemic is concerned.

In fact my last two years that I was in the Military before I retired I was tasked with writing a Standard Operating Procedure for  The US Military concerning a Biological Emergency on American Soil. It was brought to my attention that the Civilian Sector had been give a draft of my completed procedures. What was done with my work after I retired I don't know, but FEMA had a major role to play. It was their responsibility to set up field hospital facilities on the outskirts of major cities. This was a major part of preparations because it was expected that medical facilities would become overwheimed and military field medical operations would be necessary.

Peace

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toast

First confirmed case in Germany today. An employee of an automotive part manufacturer in Bavaria was diagnosed with the Corona virus, the concerned is in stable conditions. Happily, the path of infection is known. The company operate some production facilities in China, so in Wuhan as well and a member of the Wuhan branch was visiting the HQ in Bavaria from 19JAN on. 

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Myles
6 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

I don't agree with you at all, while medical facilities can handle increased traffic. A Pandemic will overwhelm their resources and they are not prepared for that situation.  Also when Catrina happened the disaster was immediately declared a National Disaster, and the Federal Government took control by sending FEMA who was suppose to be prepared for anything. It didn't even take day before it was obvious they couldn't handle the crisis. 

 

China says it is building 2 1000 room hospitals that will take 5 days to build.  

 

 

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RoofGardener
7 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

I don't agree with you at all, while medical facilities can handle increased traffic. A Pandemic will overwhelm their resources and they are not prepared for that situation.  ....

I think you are being unduly pessimistic with your analysis there, @Manwon Lender. A given area might be overwhelmed, but with modern epidemiology, such an area would be rapidly isolated. Hence we would be dealing with an epidemic, and NOT a pandemic. :) 

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rashore
7 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

I don't agree with you at all, while medical facilities can handle increased traffic. A Pandemic will overwhelm their resources and they are not prepared for that situation.  Also when Catrina happened the disaster was immediately declared a National Disaster, and the Federal Government took control by sending FEMA who was suppose to be prepared for anything. It didn't even take day before it was obvious they couldn't handle the crisis. 

If a serious Pandemic ever occurs, which I hope it doesn't I am certain it will be to much to handle. First, in the worst case situation many Government employees will take care of their families first, and that will only add to the overwhelmed medical facilities. My career specialty during the 23 years I spent in the Military, was geared in many ways to a event like we are talking about. In fact while I was on active duty they paid for my degrees in microbiology and in chemistry.

I was in a special branch of the US Army Nuclear, Biological and. Chemical Corps. My mission was identification, Location. Investigation and containment of hazards that were discovered by or that could effect US Soldiers in their Theater of Operations. So I have some practical experience in dealing with situations like this due to my service doing so in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Libia. I also understand the procedures that would be implemented in the case of a National Emergency where a Pandemic is concerned.

In fact my last two years that I was in the Military before I retired I was tasked with writing a Standard Operating Procedure for  The US Military concerning a Biological Emergency on American Soil. It was brought to my attention that the Civilian Sector had been give a draft of my completed procedures. What was done with my work after I retired I don't know, but FEMA had a major role to play. It was their responsibility to set up field hospital facilities on the outskirts of major cities. This was a major part of preparations because it was expected that medical facilities would become overwheimed and military field medical operations would be necessary.

Peace

Not entirely accurate about Katrina there. First Florida declared emergency, then the next day Louisiana declared emergency, then Louisiana requested a declaration from the Fed, after that the Fed stepped in. Then the Fed declared a state of emergency and started sending help. Couple days after that the Pres started declaring disaster. A governor has to declare emergency and request the Pres send in FEMA before FEMA can go in. Katrina was a terrible mess, but we have gotten better in the last 15 years.

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Manwon Lender
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

I think you are being unduly pessimistic with your analysis there, @Manwon Lender. A given area might be overwhelmed, but with modern epidemiology, such an area would be rapidly isolated. Hence we would be dealing with an epidemic, and NOT a pandemic. :) 

Thanks I see your point. 

Peace

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