Coronavirus cases confirmed in the UK

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, Essan said:

   You never heard of him?!

One third of The Goodies and co-writer of "The 4 Yorkshiremen" sketch (one of the all time classic sketches, popularies by the Monty Python team) amongst many other things

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52262490

No, before my time. Billy oddie. Yes, but the others no. Even his picture didn't ring any bells. 

[Essan]

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

No, before my time. Billy oddie. Yes, but the others no. Even his picture didn't ring any bells. 

Youngster   

I grew up with the Goodies!

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, Essan said:

Youngster   

I grew up with the Goodies!

I grew up with the Goonies.

[WanderingFool0]

26 minutes ago, joc said:

Just curious what your thoughts if any are on the 'why' as to China keeping quiet.  Since I don't really delve into Media I don't know what anyone, or even if anyone is talking about that...but I have wondered why they didn't immediately hold a Global Alert meeting of sorts to inform the rest of the world of a possible pandemic.  

Well, just speculating, but I think there are some good reasons why china might kept it secret and still are as far as the number of deaths.

I think in the beginning, when the doctor first warned about this illness and was censored by the Chinese government, that they thought they had it under control. By the time it flared up and the severely ill and dying started flooding and overwhelming the system, it was too late. At that point, still needing to maintain the illusion of control and strength, they suppressed the information going out. Also, at that point since they were already infected and their whole economy was going to tank they didn't want to be the only ones, so they let it spread. 

Also, behind that curtain of censorship,  I do think they may have actually used some zombie apocalypse tactics on some of the infected; ie executing and incinerating them in an attempt to quell the spread and burn out the infection quickly. And because of that, they may never reveal the real numbers and even if they did they may not reflect the true mortality rate of the disease either way.

[SHaYap]

Look at it this way, the world military games were going on in Wuhan, if they went knee jerk and lock down then and there with all those military personnel still there, some of whom are high ranking officials, what's gonna happen? 

Wait for the world to declare war if they construe it as an act of war? 

Especially when it wasn't confirmed and double checked and triple double checked and it turns out to be just like the "flu" like some leaders of some great nation says... 

Easy to accuse and blame... Ignorance is incurable, war is avoidable... 

~

[Eldorado]

"There have now been 10,647 fatalities reported across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The total figure yesterday stood at 9,937.

"Shortly after 2pm NHS England said their death toll had gone up by 657 to 9,594 with the ages of those who died between 26 and 100 years old.

"NHS Scotland said there had been 24 more deaths in Scotland, to a total of 566.

"And in Wales there have been 18 further deaths reported in the last 24 hours taking that country's total to 369.

"Northern Ireland's death toll has increased by 11."

UK Mirror: Link

"These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes"

Covid-19 Daily stats at NHS England: Link

Edited April 12, 2020 by Eldorado

[Eldorado]

In Russia:

"Putin has signed legislation imposing severe punishment — including up to five years in prison — for people convicted of spreading false information about the coronavirus.

"The legislation also imposes punishments for people breaking coronavirus quarantine rules, including up to seven years in prison."

Moscow Times: Link

Edited April 12, 2020 by Eldorado

[Ozymandias]

On 4/11/2020 at 12:52 PM, stevewinn said:

We are still below 0.02% of the population who have died. we need to be told how many excess deaths are down to Covid-19. We've shut down a 2.6Trillion economy. put many more lives of patients at risk as resources have been diverted. the cure could in fact be worse than the virus itself.

Where are you getting this 0.02% figure from? The Office for National Statistics (ONS) only gives the death rate for the years up to 2018. The information they supply indicates that the death rate in the UK since 2011 has been rising from 0.0087 (in 2011) to 0.0093 (in 2018). You figure of 0.02% is more than double that value. Has the death rate doubled in the last two years? 

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to date under 13,000, deaths in a 65million population United Kingdom.

13,000 in what period? Death rates are annualised percentages. To date this year nearly 140,000 people have died in the UK. That is 0.002% of the population. Maybe that is what you meant instead of your original 0.02%, but your 13,000 is completely wrong.

Quote

The point being raised is how many excess deaths has COVID caused?

Yes. It seems from the ONS figures I quoted elsewhere that there are excess deaths due to Covid-19 starting to become evident in the weekly totals being officially reported.  

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example in 2017/18, 50,000 excess deaths due to influenza, (beast from the east winter) 

You need to be very clear as to what is meant by excess deaths and to what they are attributable. The ONS defines excess deaths as the difference between the number of deaths in the four month period December to March compared to the total deaths in the preceding four month period, August -Nov, plus those in the following four-month period, April-July.  It gives the total excess deaths due to all causes but only says that the majority (not all) 50,100 excess deaths are attributable to the seasonal flu, and in the case of 2018 the figure given is only 16,000. 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/740606/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2017_to_2018.pdf

Quote

I'd like the Govt to tell us how many excess deaths as corona virus caused to date.

The statistics will show it in due course. It is still too early to say since the mortal effects of Covid-19 have only been in evidence in the official ONS figures for the last two weeks, and then only really in the last week.

Quote

We've already looked at the weekly figures, and seen the numbers are well within the normal range.

No, we have not seen that, at all, and continue not to see it. The figures released show that coronavirus is at least responsible for an increase of somewhere in the region of 10% over and above what might be expected for Week 13 ending Friday, 27 March. We are now half way through April and do not have any figures yet for the last two weeks when Covid-19 has been an even greater impact. And of course the official daily figures that people are now questioning do not even include those who died of Covid-19 outside of the hospital system. These will become part of the ONS weekly published data in due course.

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Questions are rightly being asked on the daily figures which show the numbers given are spread over preceding days, weeks and even months.

The official figures, which incorporate a time lag, are beginning to show the reality. 

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all perfectly legitimate questions. When ones liberty is limited and economy put into a recession.

If we had a robust informative media / journalism in the UK we'd know these answers already. 

You seem to think that your economy should not have been sacrificed to a lockdown. Elsewhere you say that the coronavirus was in the UK in November-December 2019 despite there not having been an onslaught on the health services similar to what is happening now. I can't understand how you would take this idea seriously. Do you imagine that the UK sleep-walked through a coronavirus epidemic late last year without anybody realising what was going on? That it swept through your population without causing any of the devastation that is going on now, and that despite any of the forewarning we have had this time and despite the current benefit of a three week lockdown?  

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Ozymandias

[Eldorado]

'Half of A&E team' test positive

"About half of A&E consultants and nurses at a major Welsh hospital have tested positive for coronavirus, a doctor there has said.

"Consultant Tim Rogerson, from the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, appeared in a video on the Aneurin Bevan health board's Facebook page.

"Dr Rogerson is self-isolating and said he had "pretty much a full house" of coronavirus symptoms.

"The health board area is one of the worst affected of the UK."

At the BBC: Link

[stevewinn]

41 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Where are you getting this 0.02% figure from? The Office for National Statistics (ONS) only gives the death rate for the years up to 2018. The information they supply indicates that the death rate in the UK since 2011 has been rising from 0.0087 (in 2011) to 0.0093 (in 2018). You figure of 0.02% is more than double that value. Has the death rate doubled in the last two years? 

13,000 in what period? Death rates are annualised percentages. To date this year nearly 140,000 people have died in the UK. That is 0.002% of the population. Maybe that is what you meant instead of your original 0.02%, but your 13,000 is completely wrong.

Yes. It seems from the ONS figures I quoted elsewhere that there are excess deaths due to Covid-19 starting to become evident in the weekly totals being officially reported.  

You need to be very clear as to what is meant by excess deaths and to what they are attributable. The ONS defines excess deaths as the difference between the number of deaths in the four month period December to March compared to the total deaths in the preceding four month period, August -Nov, plus those in the following four-month period, April-July.  It gives the total excess deaths due to all causes but only says that the majority (not all) 50,100 excess deaths are attributable to the seasonal flu, and in the case of 2018 the figure given is only 16,000. 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/740606/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2017_to_2018.pdf

The statistics will show it in due course. It is still too early to say since the mortal effects of Covid-19 have only been in evidence in the official ONS figures for the last two weeks, and then only really in the last week.

No, we have not seen that, at all, and continue not to see it. The figures released show that coronavirus is at least responsible for an increase of somewhere in the region of 10% over and above what might be expected for Week 13 ending Friday, 27 March. We are now half way through April and do not have any figures yet for the last two weeks when Covid-19 has been an even greater impact.

The official figures, which incorporate a time lag, are beginning to show the reality. 

You seem to think that your economy should not have been sacrificed to a lockdown. Elsewhere you say that the coronavirus was in the UK in November-December 2019 despite there not having been an onslaught on the health services similar to what is happening now. I can't understand how you would take this idea seriously. Do you imagine that the UK sleep-walked through a coronavirus epidemic late last year without anybody realising what was going on? That it swept through your population without causing any of the devastation that is going on now, and that despite any of the forewarning we have had this time and despite the current benefit of a three week lockdown?  

 

As I said there have been less than 13,000 deaths in a country of 65 million. (from cv19) 

Deaths for Cv19 remains under 0.02% of the population. 

Yes I do believe the virus was here in the UK sometime around late Nov/Dec. I'm surprised you think we where lucky enough to diagnose case 1. 

Where patients admitted to hospital being routinely tested in Nov/Dec?

So its not inconceivable that a virus which started in China could've arrived here the UK as early as Nov/Dec. You're wrong to think at that stage we'd be in a full blown pandemic. 

With the fullness of time I'm sure the date of the probable arrival in the UK will be sometime in late 2019. And the virus will be all but gone between June and August. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by stevewinn

[Ozymandias]

34 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

As I said there have been less than 13,000 deaths in a country of 65 million. (from cv19) 

You mean less than 13,000 deaths as yet attributable to Covid-19. You do not know how many outside the hospital network may have died from it, and you certainly have no idea what the total number of deaths from all causes have been, and whether that number is statistically of greater significance than usual.

Quote

Deaths for Cv19 remains under 0.02% of the population. 

Where do you get this value of 0.02% from? I mean, you could just as well have picked 1% or 5%. Deaths attributed to Covid-19 remain under these values also.

Quote

Yes I do believe the virus was here in the UK sometime around late Nov/Dec. I'm surprised you think we where lucky enough to diagnose case 1. 

Where patients admitted to hospital being routinely tested in Nov/Dec?

If you go back before Nov/Dec 2019 there have been larger spikes in flu related deaths than that which was in evidence three months age. You are just speculating from incomplete or no evidence, the kind of thing than sensationalists and conspiracy theorists do. 

Quote

So its not inconceivable that a virus which started in China could've arrived here the UK as early as Nov/Dec. You're wrong to think at that stage we'd be in a full blown pandemic. 

It is inconceivable. We can quite clearly see the spread of Covid-19 around the world from its source in Wuhan, Hebei, China. It has been spreading with the movement of infected people. Within weeks of arriving in a country there is obviously a crisis unfolding. Your speculative scenario would mean that it has taken three to four months for the virus to start having the impact on the health service now that it did not have in December. Yes, numbers of vulnerable people died in December 2019 but their was no run on hospitals, ventilators and ICU units like there is now. How do you explain that given that the increased numbers of dying were above the average then as they are now? If it was in the UK back then and the outcome was the same in terms of mortality - why was the virus having a different physical effect on people? What was going on late last year was a normal seasonal flu.

Quote

With the fullness of time I'm sure the date of the probable arrival in the UK will be sometime in late 2019. And the virus will be all but gone between June and August. 

You think? We'll see! What further gives the lie to your speculation is what would be happening now if there had been no recognition of the threat and no lockdown. There was no recognition of the threat of coronavirus back then and no lockdown of any kind, yet you believe the virus was spreading unchecked and unrecognised through the UK population in Nov/Dec and into the New Year!

Edited April 12, 2020 by Ozymandias

[+joc]

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

No, we have not seen that, at all, and continue not to see it. The figures released show that coronavirus is at least responsible for an increase of somewhere in the region of 10% over and above what might be expected for Week 13 ending Friday, 27 March. We are now half way through April and do not have any figures yet for the last two weeks when Covid-19 has been an even greater impact. And of course the official daily figures that people are now questioning do not even include those who died of Covid-19 outside of the hospital system. These will become part of the ONS weekly published data in due course.

 This has nothing to do with the death rate of the country...what is important is the death rate percentage within the population of the infected.  While the flu kills more people than this disease...the death rate percentage (arrived at by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases) is .1%.  That isn't .1% of the population.  That is .1 % of those infected, which means that millions upon millions of people get the flu every year.  But your odds of dying of the flu are only .1%...not 1%...POINT One Percent.    Meanwhile the Covid-19 virus has an overall percentage death rate of  6.15 %.      That is pretty much the same as saying that your chances of dying if you have Covid-19 are 600 times greater than having the flu.  

Early on ...before people caught onto Social Distancing...the Confirmed cases rate and the Death rate were doubling every few days.  That is how the US went from 30 confirmed cases on March 1st to 530,000  today.  These days are hard to keep track of but to keep it all in perspective:  On March 22  the US confirmed 304 deaths.  Exactly 3 weeks later, today,  that number is 20,646.  When you have an exponential growth rate that is doubling every few days...that all becomes unbelievably huge!

And the death percentage rate continues to increase.  For example...here is the increase from Mar 31 - April 6.  I stopped tracking on April 6...but ....I added today's updated death rate % for comparison.

Given that this disease started on the other side of the world from the United States...I am wondering if before it is said and done, how high will the percentage in Europe go and if the US is destined to catch up with whatever that percentage is.

Is it possible that we could actually be looking at death percentages in the high teens even low twenties?  Impossible to tell.  

US stats:  

Edited April 12, 2020 by joc

[+joc]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

With the fullness of time I'm sure the date of the probable arrival in the UK will be sometime in late 2019. And the virus will be all but gone between June and August.

It is also possible that this current crisis is just a picnic in the park before the baseball sized hail storm hits.  In 1918 it wasn't the novel virus of that day that killed 50 million people...It was the mutated version of the novel virus that caught everyone off guard.  Are we better prepared or enlightened today then we were 100 years ago?  One would think so but ...maybe not!

I'm still a lot uneasy about this whole affair.  Nothing is over...nothing is even almost over...we don't know where this is going.  But what get's me the most is:

This took the entire world by surprise...What Else may be coming our way that is going to take us all by surprise?  My Late mother in law was fond of saying:  Things can change on a dime.  I don't really partake in  'hope'...but if I did 'hope' ...I would certainly hope you were correct! 

[stevewinn]

18 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

You mean less than 13,000 deaths as yet attributable to Covid-19. You do not know how many outside the hospital network may have died from it, and you certainly have no idea what the total number of deaths from all causes have been, and whether that number is statistically of greater significance than usual.

Where do you get this value of 0.02% from? I mean, you could just as well have picked 1% or 5%. Deaths attributed to Covid-19 remain under these values also.

If you go back before Nov/Dec 2019 there have been larger spikes in flu related deaths than that which was in evidence three months age. You are just speculating from incomplete or no evidence, the kind of thing than sensationalists and conspiracy theorists do. 

It is inconceivable. We can quite clearly see the spread of Covid-19 around the world from its source in Wuhan, Hebei, China. It has been spreading with the movement of infected people. Within weeks of arriving in a country there is obviously a crisis unfolding. Your speculative scenario would mean that it has taken three to four months for the virus to start having the impact on the health service now that it did not have in December. Yes, numbers of vulnerable people died in December 2019 but their was no run on hospitals, ventilators and ICU units like there is now. How do you explain that given that the increased numbers of dying were above the average then as they are now? If it was in the UK back then and the outcome was the same in terms of mortality - why was the virus having a different physical effect on people? What was going on late last year was a normal seasonal flu.

You think? We'll see! What further gives the lie to your speculation is what would be happening now if there had been no recognition of the threat and no lockdown. There was no recognition of the threat of coronavirus back then and no lockdown of any kind, yet you believe the virus was spreading unchecked and unrecognised through the UK population in Nov/Dec and into the New Year!

Under 13,000 deaths due to cv19. (to date) 0.02% is the percentage of 65million. (which will increase, as we have on average 1,600 deaths a day in the UK) the excess deaths due to cv19 at the end of the year will tell the story.

So, with no routine testing you think we were lucky enough to fall upon and diagnose the person(s) who just happened to be the very first case(s) in the UK. (in York) the only reason they got tested was because they'd become ill and where Chinese nationals. - You can bet if this was elderly British nation with breathing problems and hadn't travelled no test would've been done.

You only have to look at the early cases, it was only people who'd recently returned to the UK. from China or infected regions who got tested in these early days  - cases of the virus could have been easily missed amongst the general British public no run on ICU's or the demographic to suggest otherwise. 

So in the weeks before Christmas thousands of Chinese make the journey to the UK for Christmas shopping, the vast majority heading to London's Oxford street. no chance of anyone bringing the virus with them, No.

As i said my opinion is that this virus was here before 31st January, (first confirmed case) more likely late Nov/Dec. (heck your patient zero was here on the 6th January who was here before him?)

 

 

 

[stevewinn]

21 minutes ago, joc said:

It is also possible that this current crisis is just a picnic in the park before the baseball sized hail storm hits.  In 1918 it wasn't the novel virus of that day that killed 50 million people...It was the mutated version of the novel virus that caught everyone off guard.  Are we better prepared or enlightened today then we were 100 years ago?  One would think so but ...maybe not!

I'm still a lot uneasy about this whole affair.  Nothing is over...nothing is even almost over...we don't know where this is going.  But what get's me the most is:

This took the entire world by surprise...What Else may be coming our way that is going to take us all by surprise?  My Late mother in law was fond of saying:  Things can change on a dime.  I don't really partake in  'hope'...but if I did 'hope' ...I would certainly hope you were correct! 

Pandemics are the future, as the Human population grows and moves into remote areas where these virus exist. with continuous human exposure and viral load ever increasing the chances of our species becoming infected from species around us.  

i posted a video on here, i do so again. done by China. Scientific Lab. from guess where? Wuhan. going out into these remote areas of wilderness to collect viruses. the Chinese claim at the end of the video, in the last 200 hundred years 2,284 virus have been found. prior to china. in the last 12 years they've discovered 2,000

 

[hetrodoxly]

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Who? 

Who, who, 'Ecky Thump, martial art of Yorkshire', 'Black Pudding Bertha' and not forgetting,  A Man's Best Friend Is His Duck.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by hetrodoxly

[hetrodoxly]

4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I grew up with the Goonies.

I believe you can get cream for that now.

[RoofGardener]

15 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Pandemics are the future, as the Human population grows and moves into remote areas where these virus exist. with continuous human exposure and viral load ever increasing the chances of our species becoming infected from species around us.  

The Kinsasha Highway ! 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/the-revenge-of-an-insulted-planet-1.69337

[stevewinn]

51 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

The Kinsasha Highway ! 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/the-revenge-of-an-insulted-planet-1.69337

Hot zone. brilliant book.

 

[Eldorado]

"Police have been given extra stop and search powers after two men were shot and another stabbed within 20 minutes in Liverpool.

"One man was stabbed on Carter Street at about 22:00 BST on Saturday, followed by shootings on Gwent Street and Hatherley Close before 22:15 BST.

"No details have been given on the victims' conditions. Three men have been arrested.

"Police have been authorised to search males aged 14 to 50 in Toxteth."

BBC: Link

 

"Care home loses 'number' of residents to disease"

BBC: Link

Edited April 12, 2020 by Eldorado

[Ozymandias]

3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Under 13,000 deaths due to cv19. (to date) 0.02% is the percentage of 65million. 

That is NOT a death rate calculation. Death rates are an annualised value. These 13,000 deaths are in the last two or three weeks. 

Moreover, if, as you speculate, Coronavirus was in the UK last Nov/Dec how many of the excess deaths back then were due to Covid-19? Was it the 50,000 excess deaths you claim were due to 'seasonal flu'? 

[Kismit]

1 hour ago, Eldorado said:

"Police have been given extra stop and search powers after two men were shot and another stabbed within 20 minutes in Liverpool.

"One man was stabbed on Carter Street at about 22:00 BST on Saturday, followed by shootings on Gwent Street and Hatherley Close before 22:15 BST.

"No details have been given on the victims' conditions. Three men have been arrested.

"Police have been authorised to search males aged 14 to 50 in Toxteth."

BBC: Link

 

"Care home loses 'number' of residents to disease"

BBC: Link

What were finding out is that lockdown is making it much easier for the Police to catch the criminals. 
Facebook is awash with the local drug houses being raided and cctv footage of burglaries are being reported as solved the next day. I don’t think crime is up I think it’s just easier to see

edit: side note, I have recently been trying to find The Goodies online to keep me entertained during lock down. Not gonna lie the loss of Tim Brooke Taylor has broken me a little inside.

[hetrodoxly]

1 hour ago, Eldorado said:

"Police have been given extra stop and search powers after two men were shot and another stabbed within 20 minutes in Liverpool.

"One man was stabbed on Carter Street at about 22:00 BST on Saturday, followed by shootings on Gwent Street and Hatherley Close before 22:15 BST.

"No details have been given on the victims' conditions. Three men have been arrested.

"Police have been authorised to search males aged 14 to 50 in Toxteth."

BBC: Link

 

"Care home loses 'number' of residents to disease"

BBC: Link

Is murder a good reason to be out, i don't think it was on the list of reasons.

[Space Commander Travis]

"Troops to drive Ambulances!" is the latest announcement from the Ministry of Drama, then. Obviously still part of the campaign to persuade us all that the NHS is so overwhelmed with rushing about thousands of Coronavictims every single day. This despite an interesting story that was reported in no less reputable a source than the Financial Times [they demand a subscription to read it, so sorry I can't supply a link] that emergency admissions to hospitals has actually seen a dramatic decline during the Coronacrisis, with some emergency wards no more than 50% full when ordinarily they expect to be operating at 90% capacity. The reasons for this are, (a), that possibility the Coronadrama has been incredibly overhyped; and, more regrettably, that people who may well have quite legitimate call for emergency admission to hospital are not doing so due to the propaganda that "you must not bother the NHS"; they feel that if they did call an ambulance, they'd say "Is it Corona? No? It's just a suspected heart attack? Sorry then, not interested. Try taking an aspirin. It's Corona only around here" , which, obviously, would not be the case, but that is no doubt what people have been led to think. So the number of deaths continues as usual, and the Government, with its policy of "if anyone dies of everything label it as Corona", can add one more to the statistics that they gleefully regale us with every day. One day perhaps people will see through this scam.

[stevewinn]

8 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

That is NOT a death rate calculation. Death rates are an annualised value. These 13,000 deaths are in the last two or three weeks. 

Moreover, if, as you speculate, Coronavirus was in the UK last Nov/Dec how many of the excess deaths back then were due to Covid-19? Was it the 50,000 excess deaths you claim were due to 'seasonal flu'? 

I'll repeat hopefully for the final time. to help you i'll underline the key words as for some reason its not sinking in - The number of deaths so far due to cv19 (to-date) remains under 13,000. 13,000 is 0.02% of the 65million population. (though that figure will increase) hence why i said we'll have to wait till years end to see the excess deaths caused by cv19.

No, haven't claimed 50,000 excess deaths due to cv19. those figures where for 2017/18 due to flu. pointing out that in that year with beast from the east excess deaths due to flu where 50,000. 

Deaths in late 2019 due to Cv19 would be a number of cases at which time wouldn't raise suspicion and so go undetected. coupled with no routine testing, numbers of cases would stay within the expected seasonal norm.

as i said your patient zero tested positive on 31st Jan, was here in the UK on the 6th January (who was here before him) you think it outlandish that in my opinion the virus was here before the 31st Jan. late Nov/Dec. i think it outlandish that you think case 1 of 1 was caught, and diagnosed. what's the odds on that, hundreds, thousands of Chinese nationals had visited the UK in December. all coming from infected China.

Somehow patient zero, in York then infected thousands around the country in a matter of 30 days. no chance.