Coronavirus cases confirmed in the UK

[spartan max2]

6 minutes ago, Katniss said:

Maybe. But when we see some opposite of that in reports like this, it may not be narrowed down to mostly old age and maybe something else.

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One couple, two coronavirus cases and wildly different symptoms

There are probably more cases like these. I'm still looking.

It is narrowed down to mostly old and at risk conditions, statistically for deaths. 

Most elderly who get Covid do not die from it. So it makes sense there will be stories of old people not dieing. It's just a higher risk for them.

But there are some young people with no conditions having bad reactions which means some other variable might be in play that we don't fully understand.

Edited April 17, 2020 by spartan max2

[Katniss]

2 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

It is narrowed down to mostly old and at risk conditions, statistically for deaths. 

But there are some young people with no conditions having bad reactions which means some other variable might be in play that we don't fully understand.

The percentages in Covid-19 deaths do report that. It's just odd as to why some younger people with supposedly no underlying health condition die and then some seniors with underlying health conditions survive. And then there are those of us who are asymptomatic. I don't know, I just wish they would hurry up with the testing and figure it out.

[spartan max2]

7 minutes ago, Katniss said:

The percentages in Covid-19 deaths do report that. It's just odd as to why some younger people with supposedly no underlying health condition die and then some seniors with underlying health conditions survive. And then there are those of us who are asymptomatic. I don't know, I just wish they would hurry up with the testing and figure it out.

Yeah, on one hand it makes me wonder if there is some variable we don't understand.

And on the other hand it makes me question if all conditions and disease vary like that but we just don't pay attention. Like I have heard of young twenty something's who workout, eat healthy, and don't smoke getting cancer. And of cancer patients who were told they would die in a month end up beating it.

Sometimes things just happen.

 

Edit: to add in regards to the variable we are missing. A theory I have been seeing thrown around alot is the "viral load theory". The idea that the higher expose you get the the virus the worse your reaction. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by spartan max2

[bee]

18 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

It is narrowed down to mostly old and at risk conditions, statistically for deaths. 

Most elderly who get Covid do not die from it. So it makes sense there will be stories of old people not dieing. It's just a higher risk for them.

But there are some young people with no conditions having bad reactions which means some other variable might be in play that we don't fully understand.

 

re bolded....

I think this is the reason that governments the world over are reacting like they are  because they don't know how this is going to play out in the longer term and they know it's a dangerous man made virus from a laboratory - (???)

let's hope we're not in for some nasty surprises where this virus is concerned as time goes on... :/

 

[Katniss]

9 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Yeah, on one hand it makes me wonder if there is some variable we don't understand.

And on the other hand it makes me question if all conditions and disease vary like that but we just don't pay attention. Like I have heard of young twenty something's who workout, eat healthy, and don't smoke getting cancer. And of cancer patients who were told they would die in a month end up beating it.

Sometimes things just happen.

I've always wondered about that with cancer too. So maybe the variable is down to genes? Then again, maybe it's mind over matter and it's just the shear will to live and survive? Lol. I don't know, I'm just mystified.

Quote

Edit: to add in regards to the variable we are missing. A theory I have been seeing thrown around alot is the "viral load theory". The idea that the higher expose you get the the virus the worse your reaction. 

The only thing I see that contradicts that hypothesis is the fact that the virus replicates itself in our cells anyway, Whether we get a small droplet or a waterfall of infection. Maybe with this virus it has more to do with the number of antibodies we already had before we got this virus, like those of us who are asymptomatic.

[Setton]

2 minutes ago, bee said:

 

re bolded....

I think this is the reason that governments the world over are reacting like they are  because they don't know how this is going to play out in the longer term

Obviously they don't know. It's new. 

Quote

and they know it's a dangerous man made virus from a laboratory - (???) 

Ah, now that we do know. 

 

It isn't. 

[+and-then]

On 4/12/2020 at 12:48 PM, joc said:

In 1918 it wasn't the novel virus of that day that killed 50 million people...It was the mutated version of the novel virus that caught everyone off guard

The differences in government between then and now are staggering.  Wilson had taken the country into a total war footing.  Everything was mobilized for the fight in Europe.  The result was that Americans did what they had to do, bury their dead and move forward.  The government of today is no more able to realistically protect us than in Wilson's day.  They just want to convince voters they can.  As a rule of thumb... hiding under the bed during a time of unknowns and danger isn't the best strategy.

[+joc]

@third_eye

with regards to your saying...the numbers are inaccurate

with regards to my retort...The numbers are accurate!   All  you need to know ...130 times more likely to die than the flew...blah, blah, blah...

After a bit of research and reading.....I humble concede that... you are right...and I was...heavy sigh...   w  r  o  n  g .....

What I was obsessed with was the Case Fatality Rate...there are actually a host of things wrong with focusing on just that data...

If interested here is the whole scoop:

 you win some, you lose some

cheers...have a drink on me 

 

[SHaYap]

22 minutes ago, joc said:

After a bit of research and reading.....I humble concede that... you are right...and I was...heavy sigh...   w  r  o  n  g .....

No, you weren't wrong, you were misinformed with disinformation... 

~

[Peter B]

On 4/17/2020 at 3:12 AM, Wepwawet said:

So, as of 1800 on April 16 there 103,093 confirmed cases in the UK and 13,729 deaths. The figures for Germany Covid 19 data for Germany today show 130,450 cases and 3,569 deaths. Interesting....

My understanding is that Germany has conducted massively more testing than the UK. That means they likely have a much more accurate idea of the number of infected people. The 103,000 confirmed cases in the UK is likely to be well below the actual number...perhaps by a factor of four?

[Wepwawet]

2 minutes ago, Peter B said:

My understanding is that Germany has conducted massively more testing than the UK. That means they likely have a much more accurate idea of the number of infected people. The 103,000 confirmed cases in the UK is likely to be well below the actual number...perhaps by a factor of four?

I had thought it may be to do with testing, and testing is certainly important to get a better idea of how many infected there may be, but what interested me was that the total number of known cases in Germany is not greatly higher than in the UK, and without doing the math, maybe proportionate to their higher population. So that they have roughly the same number of infected, they have only about a third of the deaths of the UK, depending on how they are reporting, for instance, deaths of, or with Covid-19. We won't get a proper handle on all of this until about a year has passed to see how many excess deaths there have been, and how many deaths have been brought forward. It could be the case that when the deaths have greatly eased, will may see a reduction in death rates below normal at the end of the year as those whose prognosis had then dying by the end of the year, will have sadly passed on some months early. This is what Boris Johnson had said at the start of this, but his words have become misinterpreted, as have mine it seems....

[Peter B]

12 hours ago, Eldorado said:

 Britain's low-life crooks loving the pandemic

"There's an epidemic of crime, cons and counterfeits as fraudsters cash-in on this crisis. Our research reveals fake treatments, illegal sanitiser and bogus safety masks - with police and trading standards seizing goods and issuing a new spate of public warnings.

"ITV News was shown a kit being sold as a treatment for Covid-19, but the only real benefit was to the fraudsters behind it. The ‘treatment’ involves mixing potentially toxic chemicals and rinsing your mouth with them."

ITV: Link

While I have nothing but contempt for the people selling these fraudulent products, I also have to wonder who the people are who are buying them. Isn't the message being put out to the public that there aren't any cures for Covid-19? If so, why would you buy any product that claims to cure it? Surely people have to take a bit of responsibility for thinking before they buy?

[Eldorado]

14 minutes ago, Peter B said:

While I have nothing but contempt for the people selling these fraudulent products, I also have to wonder who the people are who are buying them. Isn't the message being put out to the public that there aren't any cures for Covid-19? If so, why would you buy any product that claims to cure it? Surely people have to take a bit of responsibility for thinking before they buy?

Not everybody is as smart as you.  Should it be ok to take advantage of them?

Look what happened to our former Transport Secretary, the poor man.

"Chris Grayling faced fresh calls to resign today after the government wasted £83 million on no-deal Brexit ferries that have been running half-empty for more than a month."

The Times: Link

[+joc]

8 hours ago, third_eye said:

No, you weren't wrong, you were misinformed with disinformation... 

~

The information given is the information given.  I will agree that it can only be so accurate...and with so many different testing procedures, etc. 

I am not the originator of all the numbers.  They are the same numbers everyone else has.  Accurate or not...it is what we have to work with.  My error lies in the way I was processing the information.  We won't know the real story until the story is actually over and we look back on it.  None the less.  It's something we've never been through before so, we are all on this roller coaster together.

...sort of...

[SHaYap]

11 minutes ago, joc said:

The information given is the information given.  I will agree that it can only be so accurate...and with so many different testing procedures, etc. 

I am not the originator of all the numbers.  They are the same numbers everyone else has.  Accurate or not...it is what we have to work with.  My error lies in the way I was processing the information.  We won't know the real story until the story is actually over and we look back on it.  None the less.  It's something we've never been through before so, we are all on this roller coaster together.

...sort of...

The numbers will never be accurate, we have no way of knowing, just the forensics alone will take years if not decades. 

The irony here is that China CDC is the only nation following protocol, procedures and recommendations of the WHO... This is a novel virus, new, everything we're learning about it is as we're learning about it. 

Nobody was prepared for it being asymptomatic and highly contagious. It takes time to be sure, like everyone is finding out, time is the dominating factor, aside from being prepared, no political or religious ideology can solve this, all the money in the world won't buy anyone a ticket off of this ride, no numbers of death or lives can make it go away. 

If anything, it just shows how inept the world governing bodies are at being able to do their jobs when it is required of them. 

It is what it is, it was what it will be. 

~

Edited April 18, 2020 by third_eye
Stoopid android predictive text

[Duke Wellington]

I originally posted the view that maybe Italians and Spanish have genetics which make them more susceptible to Corona Virus. And pointed out New York historically had a lot of Italian immigration.

New findings going around in the US which are being talked about in their media indicate ethnic minorities in their country make up the lion share of cases. As the state of emergency declared by Trump gets all Americans treatment for Corona Virus if they need it (regardless of their finances) then it could well be the immune system genetics at play as opposed to poverty.

I suspect that as the disease evolved in China that carriers of certain genetics found in that area of the world make people more susceptible. And if we trace the historical migration patterns we find hotspots where populations are more likely to have those genetics around the world. In essence I suspect that people with Mongolian admixture are higher risk.

Due to the Mongols doing China, large areas of the Middle East, and then Caliphates after this spreading around the Mediterranean, and then lots of Italian migration into New York, I think some better targeting to prevent further spread of the virus in the US is possible.

In all fairness it could have happened to any population, each area of the world sees its own viruses evolve and emerge. But there is the possibility of targeted vaccination once we use profiling to determine those populations with higher risk than others.

[+joc]

17 minutes ago, third_eye said:

The irony here is that China CDC is the only nation following protocol, procedures and recommendations of the WHO

I was talking with a customer the other day.  Her daughter was going to a University (NYC I think?) in of all places...Shanghai.   She said the government just shut everything down immediately on China's New Year.  In the building she was living in, everyone just left...there was her and about 5 other people.  She soon left too but it wasn't as easy as the people who actually live in China and have places to go.  Apparently Shanghai has about 28 million people.  Her daughter walked 14 blocks and she was the only person on the street.

She also was telling me that China is a cashless society...everything is paid for using your phone.  Consequently the government is privy to everything you buy, everywhere you go, everything about you.  

She was also saying that the Chinese people heeded the mandated isolation' from the Chinese Government...not...because they feared the Chinese Government, but because they has already been through Sars and they were terrified of the virus.  

Edited April 18, 2020 by joc

[spud the mackem]

On 4/8/2020 at 4:43 PM, stevewinn said:

When they catch them they should be made to work on Covid ICU wards. as cleaners on 12 hour shifts.

And then Jailed for Life

[SHaYap]

4 minutes ago, joc said:

She was also saying that the Chinese people heeded the mandated isolation' from the Chinese Government...not...because they feared the Chinese Government, but because they has already been through Sars and they were terrified of the virus.  

Yes, the people cooperating was the primary principle of winning this fight. 

The lunar new year was already weeks past the lock down in Wuhan, Shanghai is right across China at the other edge... 

~

[Still Waters]

Coronavirus UK tracker: How many cases are in your area – updated daily

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

[Eldorado]

 

[stevewinn]

Good news is infection rate is down to 0.5 to 1. At the start the infection rate was 3. 

3 being one infected person would likely infect 3 others. 

1 the rate at which they believe we are at. Means 1 infected person is only likely to infect 1 other. 

The figure could be lower at 0.5. Due in part to the lockdown as an infected person is not infecting anyone else. 

But also being looked at is antibodies in the population. There now thinking antibodies in the community is much higher than thought at around 40%. Herd immunity is 50% to 70%. 

Also total cv19 deaths are expected to be around 0.06% of the population. (39,000)

Current population death rate is 0.023%. 

This would suggest the virus is well spread in the community.

Flattening of the curve is happening. But the death total will be the last figure to fall. 

This new 3 week lockdown will likely be the last. 

 

 

 

 

[Golden Duck]

8 hours ago, stevewinn said:

But also being looked at is antibodies in the population. There now thinking antibodies in the community is much higher than thought at around 40%. Herd immunity is 50% to 70%.

Source?  The idea was mooted on Coronacast here but IIRC there is as an issue with how long IgG lasts.

[stevewinn]

10 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Source?  The idea was mooted on Coronacast here but IIRC there is as an issue with how long IgG lasts.

Radio, after the daily briefing. Also raised a good point about Sweden. Sweden hasn't followed the lockdown as others have, but has come under pressure from others to lockdown. - pointing out swedens death rate is higher than their neighbours - But another contributor in the studio said many feel this might be because if Sweden's death toll levels off and in the end, ends up similar to their neighbours, and is similar to countries that did the lockedown then that would show the lockdown was not needed.

[Setton]

14 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Radio, after the daily briefing. 

So no source that can be validated by others and information that is not coming from any identified reputable source. 

How convenient.