Coronavirus cases confirmed in the UK

[Tiggs]

8 hours ago, stevewinn said:

We are still below 0.02% of the population who have died. we need to be told how many excess deaths are down to Covid-19.

Not sure we'll ever know the exact numbers, as I suspect postmortem testing is highly limited.

Probably the best way to discover the scale of the impact is to compare the historical mortality numbers.

Such as the New York historical mortality statistics, here, courtesy of the NYT.

[+joc]

8 minutes ago, Tiggs said:

Not sure we'll ever know the exact numbers, as I suspect postmortem testing is highly limited.

Probably the best way to discover the scale of the impact is to compare the historical mortality numbers.

Such as the New York historical mortality statistics, here, courtesy of the NYT.

My analysis shows that despite the number of cases labeled as Recovered...the trend for the Death Rate Percentage gradually climbs for every country.

On March 22  the US death rate was 1.27%   Today it is 3.85%  That ratio seems to be about the only thing truly consistent with all countries.  By Tuesday the death rate will be at 4 % for the US.  

On March 22 the Italian death rate was 9%  Today it is 12.78%

I believe (I could be incorrect) the way they are counting deaths is...if you had the virus and died...you count as a Covid death...regardless of whatever conditions existed at that time.

[Tiggs]

18 minutes ago, joc said:

I believe (I could be incorrect) the way they are counting deaths is...if you had the virus and died...you count as a Covid death...regardless of whatever conditions existed at that time.

Believe that's so. Believe the inverse is also true -- as in -- if you die and hadn't previously tested positive prior to death, then you're not counted as such.

Or at least -- in the US. Hence the probable disparity in the New York figures.

[Kismit]

12 minutes ago, joc said:

My analysis shows that despite the number of cases labeled as Recovered...the trend for the Death Rate Percentage gradually climbs for every country.

On March 22  the US death rate was 1.27%   Today it is 3.85%  That ratio seems to be about the only thing truly consistent with all countries.  By Tuesday the death rate will be at 4 % for the US.  

On March 22 the Italian death rate was 9%  Today it is 12.78%

I believe (I could be incorrect) the way they are counting deaths is...if you had the virus and died...you count as a Covid death...regardless of whatever conditions existed at that time.

I suspect this is a test to patient ratio. As the pressure goes on the system there is less time for testing, people in an infected area become to ill or too scared to go and get tested and Medical staff have less time to test. So the death rate to confirmed patient statistics become higher, although they probably are not.

We have done mass testing. I could literally walk to a testing station from my house and we have no confirmed cases in our district. And to compare our Death Stats, 1600+ Diagnosed and 4 deaths. (All but 1 death from a dementia ward in a rest home, very sad) but the point is mortality rate has been substantially less than 1%. Asymptomatic carriers are getting recorded just because they were in contact with someone who showed symptoms. 

 

[+joc]

6 minutes ago, Tiggs said:

Believe that's so. Believe the inverse is also true -- as in -- if you die and hadn't previously tested positive prior to death, then you're not counted as such.

Or at least -- in the US. Hence the probable disparity in the New York figures.

Currently the death rate in New York City is 6.47%   They also have no figures as to how many have recovered....so it's  0 recovered, 6367 dead, 98,308 confirmed cases.

I can only think that percentage will continue to climb, regardless of how many actually recover.  Which is interesting because there is a huge difference in the death rate percentages across the board.  The only thing they have in common is that they are all going up. Not down.

[Kismit]

2 minutes ago, joc said:

Currently the death rate in New York City is 6.47%   They also have no figures as to how many have recovered....so it's  0 recovered, 6367 dead, 98,308 confirmed cases.

I can only think that percentage will continue to climb, regardless of how many actually recover.  Which is interesting because there is a huge difference in the death rate percentages across the board.  The only thing they have in common is that they are all going up. Not down.

Death Certificates often have more than one cause of death, my fathers listed not only the lung cancer, the tumours in his brain but also depression.  Deaths will be recorded as Coronavirus as well or as a contributing factor in a high number of cases because that is the vulnerable group. New York will have many tragic stories to tell yet. 

[+joc]

4 minutes ago, Kismit said:

I suspect this is a test to patient ratio. As the pressure goes on the system there is less time for testing, people in an infected area become to ill or too scared to go and get tested and Medical staff have less time to test. So the death rate to confirmed patient statistics become higher, although they probably are not.

We have done mass testing. I could literally walk to a testing station from my house and we have no confirmed cases in our district. And to compare our Death Stats, 1600+ Diagnosed and 4 deaths. (All but 1 death from a dementia ward in a rest home, very sad) but the point is mortality rate has been substantially less than 1%. Asymptomatic carriers are getting recorded just because they were in contact with someone who showed symptoms. 

 

Germany also has a relatively low death rate ... but still...over time their % number is also climbing...over 2% now.  The only 'real' number we have...real as in being a very high number of recovered patients compared with the confirmed number....is China and they are and have been consistently at 4%.  But then Italy is over !2%.

So...it's still early but if we just go with the lowest number being 4% and the highest being 12%...the total death toll in NZ would peak out at between 52 and 157.

 

[Kismit]

14 minutes ago, joc said:

Germany also has a relatively low death rate ... but still...over time their % number is also climbing...over 2% now.  The only 'real' number we have...real as in being a very high number of recovered patients compared with the confirmed number....is China and they are and have been consistently at 4%.  But then Italy is over !2%.

So...it's still early but if we just go with the lowest number being 4% and the highest being 12%...the total death toll in NZ would peak out at between 52 and 157.

 

New Zealand has long been a testing ground for new tech. Large companies come here and test there new toys on our population because it is small and yet contains all of the elements of western society. It is a microcosm of global happenings.

Our death rate will go up too, because we have a dementia ward which has been isolated but infected. Individuals who don’t understand what the medical staff are trying to do and in most cases are frightened and combative and also unlikely to survive the virus. That is 20 people we are expecting sadly to see added to that list from our current cluster of patients.
 

We also have 1 Supermarket worker confirmed with everyone who he/she was in contact with tested. We also now have a cluster known as work related in that same area but nobody is confirming if it is the supermarket, my guess is that with 22 confirmed cases added to our stats the day after testing the supermarket staff it’s a fair bet.

 

We can nail down each cluster and look at it from a personal perspective. It is very difficult to attribute reasoning behind statistics without the wider picture.

And if you take our personal stories and times them by population and density. It’s going to be pretty darn awful when it hits the vulnerable in an area like New York 

[+joc]

2 minutes ago, Kismit said:

New Zealand has long been a testing ground for new tech. Large companies come here and test there new toys on our population because it is small and yet contains all of the elements of western society. It is a microcosm of global happenings.

Our death rate will go up too, because we have a dementia ward which has been isolated but infected. Individuals who don’t understand what the medical staff are trying to do and in most cases are frightened and combative and also unlikely to survive the virus. That is 20 people we are expecting sadly to see added to that list from our current cluster of patients.
 

We also have 1 Supermarket worker confirmed with everyone who he/she was in contact with tested. We also now have a cluster known as work related in that same area but nobody is confirming if it is the supermarket, my guess is that with 22 confirmed cases added to our stats the day after testing the supermarket staff it’s a fair bet.

 

We can nail down each cluster and look at it from a personal perspective. It is very difficult to attribute reasoning behind statistics without the wider picture.

And...I think also that the 'wider picture' involves a plethora of different testing standards and procedures for different countries so, we aren't exactly getting apples to apples statistics either.  Just wishing you all the best!  In New Zealand and everywhere else!

[Kismit]

7 minutes ago, joc said:

And...I think also that the 'wider picture' involves a plethora of different testing standards and procedures for different countries so, we aren't exactly getting apples to apples statistics either.  Just wishing you all the best!  In New Zealand and everywhere else!

The only thing we know for sure is that we won’t have a clear picture until we are out of the woods and can see past the trees.

Stay healthy Joc x

[SHaYap]

The emotional state of the patients are proven to greatly affect the immune system, dying from a broken heart is not unheard of... 

~

[+susieice]

9 hours ago, joc said:

Currently the death rate in New York City is 6.47%   They also have no figures as to how many have recovered....so it's  0 recovered, 6367 dead, 98,308 confirmed cases.

I can only think that percentage will continue to climb, regardless of how many actually recover.  Which is interesting because there is a huge difference in the death rate percentages across the board.  The only thing they have in common is that they are all going up. Not down.

I've been reading your conversation with Kismet and those figures for NYC are higher now. And these stats are from Friday morning. New York State was reporting 161807 cases and 7844 deaths. NYC was reporting 87028 cases and 5150 deaths. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html

Found Saturday's death total. New York State is reporting 8627 deaths statewide. There were 783 deaths from Friday to Saturday.

https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-new-york-ny-news-update-cases-map/5989875/

This shows cases recovered by county but you won't be able to scroll down through. The second column is recovered. There's no real link to the site. I just googled how many cases of coronavirus are in NYC and the state's stats came up too. New York County at the top would include NYC. It doesn't include Long Island which is also experiencing a major outbreak now. They would include Nassau County which is on the chart. I'm not real familiar with the counties in New York so there may be more than one on Long Island. Just found them too.

The four counties of Long Island include two independent counties (Nassau and Suffolk) and two New York City boroughs (Brooklyn and Queens).

Doing a lot of editing here. According to this New York County is Manhattan. It probably includes the others listed here.

New York City is considered the county seat of these five counties: New York County(Manhattan), Kings County (Brooklyn), Bronx County (The Bronx), Richmond County(Staten Island), and Queens County (Queens).

I hope I helped a little.

Cases

Worldwide

United States

New York

Location	Confirmed	Recovered	Deaths

New York	98,308	9,736	6,367
Nassau County	22,584	232	723
Suffolk County	19,883	449	458
Westchester County	18,729	4,376	461
Rockland County	7,477	1	200
Orange County	4,847	0	132
Dutchess County	1,744	104	23

Edited April 12, 2020 by susieice

[stevewinn]

12 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

Still below 0.02% of the population? Are you sure about that? Is that for the UK or for England?

And even if that were true, what is the point you are trying to make?

to date under 13,000, deaths in a 65million population United Kingdom.

The point being raised is how many excess deaths has COVID caused?

example in 2017/18, 50,000 excess deaths due to influenza, (beast from the east winter) 

I'd like the Govt to tell us how many excess deaths as corona virus caused to date.

We've already looked at the weekly figures, and seen the numbers are well within the normal range.

Questions are rightly being asked on the daily figures which show the numbers given are spread over preceding days, weeks and even months.

all perfectly legitimate questions. When ones liberty is limited and economy put into a recession.

If we had a robust informative media / journalism in the UK we'd know these answers already. 

 

 

 

 

[bee]

 

It's impossible to be able to say how many cases there are or have been (ie especially recovered) until there is a reliable antibody test -
for the whole country.. 

I was chatting to my neighbour's son and he brought the subject up, not me... that he thinks he had it at the end of last year,  Nov + Dec -
because he had an odd chest problem that came overnight and caused shortness of breath and persisted for weeks and wasn't helped by anti biotics (I think a virus can't be helped by anti biotics but if it turns into a bacterial chest infection it can...?)

He also said that at the club that he goes to everyone there had 'something' that had symptoms like bad chest and cough...

So I told him I thought I'd probably had it in December - 

This doesn't follow the general timeline but perhaps it was circulating earlier than at first thought - where ever it originated and whether it is man made or not...

So the data is only very approximate (incomplete) for numbers of cases and recovered....

 

 

 

[stevewinn]

50 minutes ago, bee said:

 

It's impossible to be able to say how many cases there are or have been (ie especially recovered) until there is a reliable antibody test -
for the whole country.. 

I was chatting to my neighbour's son and he brought the subject up, not me... that he thinks he had it at the end of last year,  Nov + Dec -
because he had an odd chest problem that came overnight and caused shortness of breath and persisted for weeks and wasn't helped by anti biotics (I think a virus can't be helped by anti biotics but if it turns into a bacterial chest infection it can...?)

He also said that at the club that he goes to everyone there had 'something' that had symptoms like bad chest and cough...

So I told him I thought I'd probably had it in December - 

This doesn't follow the general timeline but perhaps it was circulating earlier than at first thought - where ever it originated and whether it is man made or not...

So the data is only very approximate (incomplete) for numbers of cases and recovered....

 

 

 

@bee

On the point of the Virus being around earlier, The Italians are now looking into cases of higher than normal cases of influenza type viral infection in Nov/Dec, Which was particularly high in Lombardy region, which just happens to have close links with Whuan.  

Its pretty clear the Virus was in most European countries before anyone realised, thanks to China keeping quiet, its no coincidence the Italian region with a high Chinese presence and high rates of air travel between Whuan and Northern Italy, - and the two had the highest outbreak, quickly followed by the countries which the Italians have the highest air travel with namely Spain, (look at their covid figures) followed by France, Germany and London, followed by New York City.

This is why the virus looks to be spreading more rabidly even with the measures taken, that's because it was here in Nov/Dec and the low cases it generated wouldn't have raise suspicion over the expected seasonal norm. Even the last three months UK monthly deaths have remained below the 5 year average. the cases have gradually increased to to days levels which would raise suspicion. 

If correct and the Virus was here sometime around Nov/Dec then over 15% would be infected by now, a figure which would tie in with the figures we see today succumbing to the virus. its had time to spread to the vulnerable who wouldn't all succumb to the virus, but having run its course all the virus is left with now is the most vulnerable hence why the numbers are going up for the those in that bracket.

The secret China, - while Western leaders wont even refer to the virus as the Chinese virus or Whuan virus, as its NOT Political correct, Once again. Its left to the same person who time and time again shows why he's a leader and not a mere administrator, President Donald Trump, whose not afraid to lift the lid, be it Climate Change, Bad Nuclear deals (Iran), German VW emissions or the Kung Fu Flu.

Trump once again dares to put his head above the parapet when he raised issues with China and its close links with the WHO. It would seem some officials have too closer relationship with China which excuse the pun is not healthy for all of us.

There is an article on the web by UnRedacted on how China misled the world while secretly buying up medical supplies they used a Government backed property giant Greenland Group to put all normal work on hold to purchase bulk supplies of essential medical items and ship them back to China. This went on through January and February and the company has a major present in the UK via its London office. They purchased everything that countries could possibly need to fight the virus. Supplies were even purchased across Europe including the Czech Republic according to Respekt. If this is found to be even half true is it any wonder that all affected countries have struggled to get the right essential medical items. The whole relationship between WHO and CCC has to be fully investigated especially before we try to hang our experts out to dry especially on medical equipment availability.

 

 

 

 

[Setton]

31 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

The secret China, - while Western leaders wont even refer to the virus as the Chinese virus or Whuan virus, as its NOT Political correct,

They refer to it instead as coronavirus because that's what it is. And you don't solve a pandemic by scapegoating others. 

Quote

Once again. Its left to the same person who time and time again shows why he's a leader and not a mere administrator, President Donald Trump, whose not afraid to lift the lid, be it Climate Change, Bad Nuclear deals (Iran), German VW emissions or the Kung Fu Flu.

Well that's a pretty good comparison. You're right, Trump's stance on coronavirus is about as well thought out as his stances on climate change and Iran. 

Which is to say, not at all. Except to get easy support from large numbers of morons who need someone to blame. 

And that's where you come in 

[Eldorado]

Three more nurses have died after testing positive for COVID-19, with the number of NHS staff deaths now surpassing 30.

Sky news: Link

[+joc]

6 hours ago, susieice said:

Doing a lot of editing here. According to this New York County is Manhattan. It probably includes the others listed here.

New York City is considered the county seat of these five counties: New York County(Manhattan), Kings County (Brooklyn), Bronx County (The Bronx), Richmond County(Staten Island), and Queens County (Queens).

I hope I helped a little.

I'm getting all my information from here and here.  They update frequently.  The numbers are changing constantly.  The one thing I have found that is interesting to me is the fact that the percentage of people who die...regardless of the country or state...is continually edging up...also regardless of the number of Recovered.  

I know that some countries have been hit harder than others...and some countries and states have been less adequate with dealing with the crisis than others.  The one figure that seems consistent is the Death Rate Percentage. 

For those who aren't real sure exactly what I'm talking about:  It's very easy to calculate.  Divide the number of Deaths by the number of Confirmed cases.

Currently:  USA  20,608 / 530,006 =  .0388  or  3.9%     But if you go back to the 6th of April  USA  was at 2.98%  Basically from 3% to 4% in 5 days.  Ditto with every other country in the world!   

There are some other factors that could make those numbers drop but so far they haven't...the death rate is consistently rising at the same time the recovered rate is consistently rising and the confirmed rate is consistently rising...except where it has curved and is actually in decline or leveled off completely.

For comparison:  Italy on March 31 was at 11.74%,  the 6th of April...12.46%,  Currently: 12.78%  Those with very small death rate % will eventually rise...this isn't a wham, bam kill  you fast disease.  It can take weeks before you die.  It can take weeks before you recover completely.  And...the kicker...apparently you can be infected for weeks without any symptoms whatsoever.  

All in all...a very tricky traversing of stats.  Like @Kismit said...we won't really know until we really know.  

Edited April 12, 2020 by joc

[+joc]

3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

ts pretty clear the Virus was in most European countries before anyone realised, thanks to China keeping quiet,

Just curious what your thoughts if any are on the 'why' as to China keeping quiet.  Since I don't really delve into Media I don't know what anyone, or even if anyone is talking about that...but I have wondered why they didn't immediately hold a Global Alert meeting of sorts to inform the rest of the world of a possible pandemic.  

[Essan]

Tim  Brooke-Taylor (comedy icon) has died (age 79) after contracting covid-19

The first "high profile celebrity" death in the UK, I think.

[stevewinn]

7 minutes ago, joc said:

Just curious what your thoughts if any are on the 'why' as to China keeping quiet.  Since I don't really delve into Media I don't know what anyone, or even if anyone is talking about that...but I have wondered why they didn't immediately hold a Global Alert meeting of sorts to inform the rest of the world of a possible pandemic.  

One party communist state. As such leadership as to be seen to be strong and in control in such a culture. 

According to the Chinese they've had 3,000 deaths from CV19. Bear in mind this from the epicentre ; wuhan, Hubei province population 11,000 million. In a country of 1.3Billion. 

 

 

[stevewinn]

13 minutes ago, Essan said:

Tim  Brooke-Taylor (comedy icon) has died (age 79) after contracting covid-19

The first "high profile celebrity" death in the UK, I think.

Who? 

[+joc]

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

One party communist state. As such leadership as to be seen to be strong and in control in such a culture. 

According to the Chinese they've had 3,000 deaths from CV19. Bear in mind this from the epicentre ; wuhan, Hubei province population 11,000 million. In a country of 1.3Billion. 

 

 

But what do they have to gain by not being open and honest about it...especially, when their main trading partner...The US...has a vested interest?  The One Party Communist state is a reason why they can...but why 'would' they.  On purpose perhaps, dang we should have in hind site perhaps, saving face perhaps?  

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, joc said:

But what do they have to gain by not being open and honest about it...especially, when their main trading partner...The US...has a vested interest?  The One Party Communist state is a reason why they can...but why 'would' they.  On purpose perhaps, dang we should have in hind site perhaps, saving face perhaps?  

Why is China a secretive state. 

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Who? 

   You never heard of him?!

One third of The Goodies and co-writer of "The 4 Yorkshiremen" sketch (one of the all time classic sketches, popularies by the Monty Python team) amongst many other things

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52262490