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Still Waters

Coronavirus cases confirmed in the UK

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stevewinn
Just now, toast said:

Wrong again, there is no 45% death rate. The 45% value is related to "closed cases" and not related to the number of infected people.

It's reported around about 6% mortality rate in those infected. This number would fall by about 2% when taking the total number infected but not confirmed. 

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Cookie Monster
4 minutes ago, toast said:

Wrong again, there is no 44% death rate. The 44% value is related to "closed cases" and not related to the number of infected people.

Yes, infected have neither died or recovered.

The death to recovering rate is 44%.With the current infected it will day several days before they either die or recover. But the larger the number becomes the more accurate the death rate that will emerge.

Edited by RabidMongoose

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Hammerclaw

It's not Cholera, or the Black Plague or Small Pox; the vast majority of people who contract it may survive and never know they even had it. It's a serious disease just like any new one, but there have been far worse.

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hatecraft
1 hour ago, Hammerclaw said:

It's not Cholera, or the Black Plague or Small Pox; the vast majority of people who contract it may survive and never know they even had it. It's a serious disease just like any new one, but there have been far worse.

Sounds just like something a Russian bot would say.  

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Hammerclaw
2 minutes ago, hatecraft said:

Sounds just like something a Russian bot would say.  

You sound like a DNC bot, Russian boogie man and all.:whistle:

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Space Commander Travis
9 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

I predicted Italy would have a 45% death rate by the end of the day.;

2 hours to go and its at 44% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus-dev/country/italy/ lol

You're getting like Angel of Lightness for your ghoulishly gleeful (and just as inaccurate) predictions 

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RAyMO

Must suggestions are a death rate of about 2% generally - higher the older one gets. 

some countries are suggesting potential infection levels eg Germany 70% 

using that for the UK roughly 

65m x 70% = 45.5m x 2% = 910k.

All calculations courtesy of Alexa (just in case they are wrong)

Therefore Government concern and action would seem very appropriate. 

Though personally I believe infection levels of 70% seem a little on the high side - but then again what do I know. 

Stopping the spread, given the lack of a vaccine would seem to be an appropriate action. 

 

Edited by RAyMO
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Space Commander Travis
10 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

some countries are suggesting potential infection levels eg Germany 70% 

Yes, there was some hysteric yesterday who was predicting that, with just as much glee as Mongoose, and extrapolating that with joy that this means that 500,000 people in Germany will die!!!! 

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toast
1 hour ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

You're getting like Angel of Lightness for your ghoulishly gleeful (and just as inaccurate) predictions 

AOLA™ (Angel of Lightness Award)

:yes::lol:

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skookum
10 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Yes, infected have neither died or recovered.

The death to recovering rate is 44%.With the current infected it will day several days before they either die or recover. But the larger the number becomes the more accurate the death rate that will emerge.

These are shocking figures. Ok to put it in perspective that is out of roughly 12k infected with 10k yet to have an outcome.

But imagine even if the mortality rate falls 50% they are still huge numbers.

I suspect the world will be watching Italy very closely.

I wonder what the rate is like in Iran. At the moment all we have is China to gather the figures from. China took some very extreme measures and I certainly wouldn't 100% trust what information they have released.

 

Edited by skookum
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Matt Vinyl

Regarding the loo-roll 'runs' (Pun kinda intended), I think it is because people believe they are going to be 'locked' in their homes and don't want to have to resort to using the 'three seashells' approach to erm, 'self-hygiene'..

http://www.mtv.com/news/1715032/sandra-bullock-demolition-man-seashells/

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stevewinn
34 minutes ago, Eldorado said:

Schools and colleges to close in Republic of Ireland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811

Absolutely no point to this sort of thing. Because these students and teachers are not going into isolation for the rest of their lives.

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Still Waters

Related:

Quote

A teenager was sent home from school after being caught selling shots of hand sanitiser to his fellow pupils at 50p a go.

His mother, Jenny Tompkins, from Leeds, posted a picture of him arriving home earlier after his entrepreneurial exploits at Dixons Unity Academy.

In a post on Facebook, she said it was hard to discipline her son when his "dad called to say he was a legend".

He plans to use the £9 he made to buy a kebab, she added.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-51843128

 

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Tiggs
24 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Absolutely no point to this sort of thing. Because these students and teachers are not going into isolation for the rest of their lives.

They're not trying to prevent them from * ever * getting it.

Containment has failed. This is the mitigation phase.

The plan is to spread the number of patients requiring hospital treatment out over time, so that the NHS has a fighting chance of handling this thing.

It's a strategy that's being referred to as "Flattening the curve."

See here, for details: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/what-flatten-curve-chart-shows-how-critical-it-everyone-fight-n1155636

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hetrodoxly
32 minutes ago, Tiggs said:

They're not trying to prevent them from * ever * getting it.

Containment has failed. This is the mitigation phase.

The plan is to spread the number of patients requiring hospital treatment out over time, so that the NHS has a fighting chance of handling this thing.

It's a strategy that's being referred to as "Flattening the curve."

See here, for details: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/what-flatten-curve-chart-shows-how-critical-it-everyone-fight-n1155636

It will be grandparents looking after these kids, they'll be dropping like flies.

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itsnotoutthere
2 hours ago, Matt Vinyl said:

Regarding the loo-roll 'runs' (Pun kinda intended), I think it is because people believe they are going to be 'locked' in their homes and don't want to have to resort to using the 'three seashells' approach to erm, 'self-hygiene'..

http://www.mtv.com/news/1715032/sandra-bullock-demolition-man-seashells/

I tend to favor the length of string with a knot in the middle technique

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TigerBright19

What about all that shipping traffic coming to Britain?

 

2pm today - Shipping traffic.

 

traf4.png

 

traf3.png

 

traf1.png

 

traf2.png

 

Edited by Aaron2016
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Eldorado

Update:

"The total number of people with coronavirus in the UK has risen to 590.

"Two more people were confirmed to have died from the virus in the UK on Thursday, bringing the total to 10, NHS England said.

"A total of 29,174 people have been tested across the UK so far."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-confirmed-uk-cases-boris-johnson-health-department-142447539.html?

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Essan

Obviously the figure of 590 people with coronavirus assumes that once you get it you have it for life and no-one ever recovers ;)   

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Space Commander Travis

News today: "Whatever number it is cases have now been confirmed, but The Government's Chief Medical Officer has said that the actual number could be 5,000 , or 10,000 , or anything at all really". So in other words he hasn't a clue,and is just throwing scaremongering multiples of 5,000 around off the top of his head. Do we pay taxes for these people whose degree of uselessness seems directly proportional to the grandness of their title? 

Meanwhile Prime Minster Bo Johnson has been giving us his empathetic cross between Churchill, Maggie Thatcher and Princess Di speechifying.

"Many people compare this to flu", he said, "but alas that is not the case." Yes, he said Alas. "we will have to face that many people", sniffs away tear, "will lose loved ones before their time." What a dreadful old ham. 

Edited by Dumbledore the Awesome
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Mr.United_Nations

Over 1,000 deaths in Italy compared to 189 yesterday

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toast
56 minutes ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

Over 1,000 deaths in Italy compared to 189 yesterday

No. 827 on 11MAR.

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