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Earth set to enter 30-year 'mini ice age'

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docyabut2

But what's really catching attention is the acceleration in movement. Around the mid-1990s, the pole suddenly sped up its movements from just over 9 miles (15 kilometers) a year to 34 miles (55 kilometers) annually. As of last year, the pole careened over the international date line toward the Eastern Hemisphere

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

But what's really catching attention is the acceleration in movement. Around the mid-1990s, the pole suddenly sped up its movements from just over 9 miles (15 kilometers) a year to 34 miles (55 kilometers) annually. As of last year, the pole careened over the international date line toward the Eastern Hemisphere

But as of this year, nobody knows what that means, or if it means anything at all.

Doug

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tmcom
6 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Don't be ridiculous :P

Doug is an expert at ridiculous, Temps in a US state is rising eventhough it isn't, sea levels are accelerating eventhough it is dropping, but l forget that unicorns govern Sydney Harbor, so that can be excluded?

The real truth is, is we have reached the top of our warming trend and are starting to see things dropping or cooling globally. The US has record cold spells, my state is experiencing their coldest summer, (we had our frickin heaters on the last two nights in January, which is typically our hottest month) and we had our coldest recorded day on one of our snowmountains in summertime.

I know that the d...heads will say, climate change causes cold and hot and anything else, which l guess means that a mini ice age also causes record hot days, (yeah, l know f.....ing stupid).

If the planet is really warming and accelerating then we would be seeing longer and hotter summers and milder winters and recent rising oceans, we are seeing the opposite!

I know the brainwashed lemmings will never get it, and just like a Flat Earther who proves that they are wrong, then continues to post about how true it is, will never get it, and in the meantime the evidence builds, (getting colder) the masses get it, and vote out the f....wits destroying economies, and a percentage, are a hopeless cause, and should migrate to New Zealand.

The UK, AU, and the US, get that the planet is cooing, and will vote out the d...heads pushing their Green New Kill, so a minority of loonies don't really matter.

:sleepy:

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Golden Duck
2 hours ago, tmcom said:

Doug is an expert at ridiculous, Temps in a US state is rising eventhough it isn't, sea levels are accelerating eventhough it is dropping, but l forget that unicorns govern Sydney Harbor, so that can be excluded?

The real truth is, is we have reached the top of our warming trend and are starting to see things dropping or cooling globally. The US has record cold spells, my state is experiencing their coldest summer, (we had our frickin heaters on the last two nights in January, which is typically our hottest month) and we had our coldest recorded day on one of our snowmountains in summertime.

I know that the d...heads will say, climate change causes cold and hot and anything else, which l guess means that a mini ice age also causes record hot days, (yeah, l know f.....ing stupid).

If the planet is really warming and accelerating then we would be seeing longer and hotter summers and milder winters and recent rising oceans, we are seeing the opposite!

I know the brainwashed lemmings will never get it, and just like a Flat Earther who proves that they are wrong, then continues to post about how true it is, will never get it, and in the meantime the evidence builds, (getting colder) the masses get it, and vote out the f....wits destroying economies, and a percentage, are a hopeless cause, and should migrate to New Zealand.

The UK, AU, and the US, get that the planet is cooing, and will vote out the d...heads pushing their Green New Kill, so a minority of loonies don't really matter.

:sleepy:

LOL the lowest temperature we've had this year 19.8C (67.6F).  Heater's aren't even needed in winter; and they aren't feeling any colder.

brisbane aero (040842) july  graph

brisbane aero (040842) july  graph

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fred_mc

Not good, if will make people believe even less in the ongoing climate change, which will cause massive consequences when the solar minimum is over in 30 years.

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Doug1029
14 hours ago, tmcom said:

Doug is an expert at ridiculous,

Doug is currently working on a paper on how climate change is affecting eastern red-cedar invasion of Oklahoma.  If all goes well, it will be published in a scientific journal this fall or next spring.

14 hours ago, tmcom said:

The real truth is, is we have reached the top of our warming trend and are starting to see things dropping or cooling globally. The US has record cold spells, my state is experiencing their coldest summer, (we had our frickin heaters on the last two nights in January, which is typically our hottest month) and we had our coldest recorded day on one of our snowmountains in summertime.

2016 was the hottest year on record as a result of a record-breaking El Nino.  Before we start saying we're in a cooling trend, we ought to at least see what the next El Nino brings.

Remember that climate is a 30-year average.  It has not even been four years since the record was set.  And it is GLOBAL climate change we're talking about - not how hot it got in Oklahoma or Brisbane.  US temps this winter were WARMER than average. 

Be back after lunch.

Doug

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Doug1029
15 hours ago, tmcom said:

I know that the d...heads will say, climate change causes cold and hot and anything else, which l guess means that a mini ice age also causes record hot days, (yeah, l know f.....ing stupid).

If you don't know what you're talking about, none of that makes sense.  But if you do, you know that the relocation of the Polar Vortex (caused by warmer weather in the tropics) blocks the travel of storms.  These storms detour southward around the Vortex, bringing colder weather to the Great Lakes, New England and Europe.  The world as a whole is no colder, but the North Atlantic Basin gets colder.  In some areas, it gets hotter, while in other areas it gets colder, all while the average continues to rise.

A mini-ice age will probably not cause warmer weather.  But we can't be sure of that until one happens.  So far, there isn't much to suggest that we're about to have one.

15 hours ago, tmcom said:

If the planet is really warming and accelerating then we would be seeing longer and hotter summers and milder winters and recent rising oceans, we are seeing the opposite!

As a matter of fact, we ARE seeing longer and hotter summers and milder winters:

 

Denton, G., R. Alley, G. Comer and W. Broecker.  2004.  The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change.  Quaternary Science Reviews 24(1011) 1159-1182  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737910500003X  7 February 2020

Menzel, A. and P. Fabian.  1999.  Growing season extended in Europe.  Nature 397, 659(1999) https://doi.org/10.1038/17709  7 February 2020

 

AND sea level rise:

 

Douglas, B.  1991.  Global sea level rise.  Journal of Geophysical Research 96(C4) 6981-6992.  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/91JC00064  7 February 2020

 

If you're not seeing it, open your eyes.

 

If you think the planet is cooling, present some evidence.  Just post a link to a dataset that shows cooling.  That's all you have to do.  Should be simple.

Doug

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Doug1029
7 hours ago, fred_mc said:

Not good, if will make people believe even less in the ongoing climate change, which will cause massive consequences when the solar minimum is over in 30 years.

I'm doubting that a period of cold sun will have much affect on temps unless it is accompanied by large volcanic eruptions like the Little Ice Age was.

Doug

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tmcom
9 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

Doug is currently working on a paper on how climate change is affecting eastern red-cedar invasion of Oklahoma.  If all goes well, it will be published in a scientific journal this fall or next spring.

2016 was the hottest year on record as a result of a record-breaking El Nino.  Before we start saying we're in a cooling trend, we ought to at least see what the next El Nino brings.

Remember that climate is a 30-year average.  It has not even been four years since the record was set.  And it is GLOBAL climate change we're talking about - not how hot it got in Oklahoma or Brisbane.  US temps this winter were WARMER than average. 

Be back after lunch.

Doug

Doug needs to go back to the drawing board!

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tmcom
7 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

If you don't know what you're talking about, none of that makes sense.  But if you do, you know that the relocation of the Polar Vortex (caused by warmer weather in the tropics) blocks the travel of storms.  These storms detour southward around the Vortex, bringing colder weather to the Great Lakes, New England and Europe.  The world as a whole is no colder, but the North Atlantic Basin gets colder.  In some areas, it gets hotter, while in other areas it gets colder, all while the average continues to rise.

A mini-ice age will probably not cause warmer weather.  But we can't be sure of that until one happens.  So far, there isn't much to suggest that we're about to have one.

As a matter of fact, we ARE seeing longer and hotter summers and milder winters:

Denton, G., R. Alley, G. Comer and W. Broecker.  2004.  The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change.  Quaternary Science Reviews 24(1011) 1159-1182  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737910500003X  7 February 2020

Menzel, A. and P. Fabian.  1999.  Growing season extended in Europe.  Nature 397, 659(1999) https://doi.org/10.1038/17709  7 February 2020

AND sea level rise:

Douglas, B.  1991.  Global sea level rise.  Journal of Geophysical Research 96(C4) 6981-6992.  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/91JC00064  7 February 2020

If you're not seeing it, open your eyes.

If you think the planet is cooling, present some evidence.  Just post a link to a dataset that shows cooling.  That's all you have to do.  Should be simple.

Doug

Not seeing BS, yes l see it!

Go 5 minutes in for the Real data sets for the US, not the Micky Mouse ones.

But what does Tony H, know, (like you he was worked in the forestry area for a long time) and has no sea level rise and milder summers to back him up, as l do.

But according to NASA, and the like sea levels are rising, and accelerating and 2016 was the hottest when, it hasn't or it isn't.

I really only come here for a laugh, or to see how far a Flat Earth, (fan)  will try to defend something that isn't true, while real life events don't show it!

:lol:

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Essan
19 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

I'm doubting that a period of cold sun will have much affect on temps unless it is accompanied by large volcanic eruptions like the Little Ice Age was.

Doug

So far all it seems to have done, here in Europe, is cancelled winter ..... 

 

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RoofGardener
19 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

I'm doubting that a period of cold sun will have much affect on temps unless it is accompanied by large volcanic eruptions like the Little Ice Age was.

Doug

All heat on earth comes from the Sun.

If the energy flow from the Sun is disrupted, then - obviously - the Earth will cool down. How could it be otherwise ? 

 

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Essan
1 minute ago, RoofGardener said:

All heat on earth comes from the Sun.

If the energy flow from the Sun is disrupted, then - obviously - the Earth will cool down. How could it be otherwise ? 

 

But
a) some heat does come from within the Earth
b) our atmosphere and oceans retain heat, and are now retaining more heat
c) despite a reduction in solar output (remember - we've supposedly been cooling for at least 10 years now, and are now entering the peak period), Earth is still getting warmer
d) the reduction in solar output really isn't that much over a mere decadal timescale.   And because of b) it really won't have any noticable effect other than possibly an acceleration of warming when the solar downturn ends.

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Doug1029
12 hours ago, tmcom said:

Not seeing BS, yes l see it!

Go 5 minutes in for the Real data sets for the US, not the Micky Mouse ones.

First:  graphs are not data.  To test results you need numerical data.  Graphs are a nice summary, but they don't get the job done.

Second, you are looking right at the evidence for climate change and not seeing it.  Those are SLOPING lines that summarize the graphs.  In order for the line to slope, something has to change.

Third, Look at the precipitation graph.  It is clearly increasing.  That is because warmer sea temps cause increased evaporation which has to fall someplace (What goes up, must come down.).  Your graphs demonstrate that climate change was happening in those local areas.

Fourth, please cite the source of your data.  A complete citation so that I can find the original article.  I fear that it is taken out of context, or maybe even a forgery.  Without provenance, "evidence" may be worthless.

Doug

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tmcom
8 minutes ago, Doug1029 said:

First:  graphs are not data.  To test results you need numerical data.  Graphs are a nice summary, but they don't get the job done.

Second, you are looking right at the evidence for climate change and not seeing it.  Those are SLOPING lines that summarize the graphs.  In order for the line to slope, something has to change.

Third, Look at the precipitation graph.  It is clearly increasing.  That is because warmer sea temps cause increased evaporation which has to fall someplace (What goes up, must come down.).  Your graphs demonstrate that climate change was happening in those local areas.

Fourth, please cite the source of your data.  A complete citation so that I can find the original article.  I fear that it is taken out of context, or maybe even a forgery.  Without provenance, "evidence" may be worthless.

Doug

Tony H, sites all of his sources, as l have done, but don't worry, you will find a way to rationize it away. Can't see it, true you see his graphs upside down,...enough said!

:sleepy:

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Doug1029

Update on my climate/cedar research project:  I ran into a snag with data collection.  The dot grid system I am using is painfully slow and I'm wondering just how accurate it is.  It is designed to measure the surface area actually covered by red-cedar crowns.  But that's not how other systems work.  The remote sensing systems identify areas with lots of cedar in them, but they can include patches of open ground and can exclude small patches of cedar.  My system picks up single trees.  Obviously, the two will not be comparable.

I found a 1994 publication that shows cedar coverage by county.  That's perfect if I can find other, similar tables for other years.  The article references an earlier source of coverage data, but I haven't found it yet.  Going to try again on Monday.  Also, there's a remote-sensing project from 2017 by a group from Norman.  They may have the type of data I need.

I'm thinking maybe I can piece together the datasets I need.

Another problem, though:  The 1994 article mentioned that cedar growth was slowest along the I-35 corridor.  That's where the climate data shows the greatest increase in rainfall.  That means cedar coverage may not correlate with precip.  So I may have to look for another cause for the cedar invasion.

Doug

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Doug1029
3 minutes ago, tmcom said:

Tony H, sites all of his sources, as l have done, but don't worry, you will find a way to rationize it away. Can't see it, true you see his graphs upside down,...enough said!

:sleepy:

Start by providing a citation with your statement.  Not doing that is about the same as not providing one at all.  Yes.  I know the byline says AFP.  That's a news agency, not an author.  And it gives dates and times.  Maybe I can use that and maybe not.  Besides, where you got it from may not be the ORIGINAL source.  I want to know what the article said before the spin doctors got to it.

Doug

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Doug1029
2 hours ago, Essan said:

So far all it seems to have done, here in Europe, is cancelled winter ..... 

 

I haven't been keeping track of the solar cycle lately.  I know we're near the bottom of one, probably starting into the next one, but what is the sunspot count doing?  If we're about to start ito a cold sun, the cout should be down.

Doug

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Doug1029
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

All heat on earth comes from the Sun.

If the energy flow from the Sun is disrupted, then - obviously - the Earth will cool down. How could it be otherwise ? 

 

Every 11 years the sunspot count drops to zero.  And the temperatures drop 0.3 degrees.  So, yes, there is a short period of less-than-normal solar radiation.  But that solar radiation never fails altogether.  There is always a flow of energy - enough to keep the earth at 0.15 below the expected temp.

If solar radiation is not linked to sunspot activity, then we might get a period of depressed temps below expected.  We know that the link is not perfect, that sunspots don't explain everything.  So I could be wrong.

Doug

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docyabut2
6 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

Every 11 years the sunspot count drops to zero.  And the temperatures drop 0.3 degrees.  So, yes, there is a short period of less-than-normal solar radiation.  But that solar radiation never fails altogether.  There is always a flow of energy - enough to keep the earth at 0.15 below the expected temp.

If solar radiation is not linked to sunspot activity, then we might get a period of depressed temps below expected.  We know that the link is not perfect, that sunspots don't explain everything.  So I could be wrong.

Doug

doug your smart ,but  I remember what I think. the magnetic field did move a few years ago, there was a report on it.and its why our climate changes are happening ,    Antarctica part of it melts while part of it expanded.  

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docyabut2

doug I remember  reading about magnetic field turning a few degrees a few years ago  and the planes in Florida did get mess up in moving. I wish I can find those reports again   

Edited by docyabut2

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Doug1029
53 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

doug I remember  reading about magnetic field turning a few degrees a few years ago  and the planes in Florida did get mess up in moving. I wish I can find those reports again   

When a magnetic declination changes, the change is measured in degrees, minutes and seconds of arc.  Are you sure you're not getting degrees of arc confused with degrees of temperature?

Doug

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Desertrat56
1 hour ago, docyabut2 said:

doug your smart ,but  I remember what I think. the magnetic field did move a few years ago, there was a report on it.and its why our climate changes are happening ,    Antarctica part of it melts while part of it expanded.  

From what I understand, magnetic north fluctuates over the years back and forth in a certain range so it does not really move, it fluctuates from one place to another off by very tiny degree of change.  It is a normal cyclical thing.

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Doug1029
11 hours ago, tmcom said:

Tony H, sites all of his sources, as l have done, but don't worry, you will find a way to rationize it away. Can't see it, true you see his graphs upside down,...enough said!

:sleepy:

First:  your sources have to be right.  It is especially easy to debunk them when the research needed for debunking was done forty years ago.  Don't you read anything?

Doug

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