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Earth set to enter 30-year 'mini ice age'

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Doug1029
2 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

From what I understand, magnetic north fluctuates over the years back and forth in a certain range so it does not really move, it fluctuates from one place to another off by very tiny degree of change.  It is a normal cyclical thing.

In recent years the magnetic pole has quit circling in northern Canada and headed northwest.  It recently crossed the International Date Line.  What this means is anybody's guess.

Doug

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RoofGardener

Hmmm........ 

NON of these "magnetic pole" theories appear to have ANY relevance to Global Temperatures. :)

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WanderingFool0
35 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm........ 

NON of these "magnetic pole" theories appear to have ANY relevance to Global Temperatures. :)

The problem is no one really knows how a magnetic reversal will effect climate, because the last time the poles reversed was 780,000 years ago and all climate data from that time period would be muddied, because around 780,000 years ago there was a major meteor event that covered roughly ten percent of the planet with debris.

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Doug1029
On 2/8/2020 at 10:31 AM, Doug1029 said:

I haven't been keeping track of the solar cycle lately.  I know we're near the bottom of one, probably starting into the next one, but what is the sunspot count doing?  If we're about to start ito a cold sun, the cout should be down.

Doug

Checked it out.  Appears like we hit the bottom of the current cycle in December and January.  If he's right, we won't have long to wait to find out if temps are really going down.  So far, they haven't.

Doug

P.S.:  the source is NOAA's sunspot record:  ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt

Doug

P.P.S.:  NASA hasn't updated its global temps record since July.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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madmikey

Now I can be friends with frosty the snowman.

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Doug1029

Update on Oklahoma Cedar/Climate study:  The dot grid method of collecting data turned out to be painfully slow and because it was measuring only the area beneath cedar crowns, did did not comport with other measures of cedar coverage.  I had to abandon it in favor of datasets collected by the Extension Service back in 1985 and updated in 1994.  I was able to translate the data from the Extension Service' 10-region summary to the nine divisions used by NOAA.  I just ran an analysis comparing cedar coverage with precipitation, temperature and PDSI.  PDSI was not significant in any combination with other variables.  No variable was significant by itself, but the Precip*Temp interaction term produced a FIT index of 0.464 (There is no constant term, so r^2 can't be calculated.).  That's not great, but it is significant (a=0.95).

So the next step is to See if I can find a non-linear term.  Also, I would like to extend the climate charts back another four years, at least.  That would get them back to 1900 so I can show the complete 20th century.  Maybe I can determine a threshold for precip, above which cedar growth expands rapidly.  That would tell us what we have to get the CO2 concentration down to to stop the cedar invasion.

Things are progressing.  Maybe I can submit this for review by May.

Doug

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Dustyrose33

There was a guy that wrote a book titled "5/5/2005" which many years ago predicted the world would be cast into a sudden global ice age on 5/5/2005 but obviously it didn't happen.

Edited by Dustyrose33

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Doug1029
11 hours ago, Dustyrose33 said:

There was a guy that wrote a book titled "5/5/2005" which many years ago predicted the world would be cast into a sudden global ice age on 5/5/2005 but obviously it didn't happen.

Almost as cataclysmic:  NOAA has updated its climate records to include September 2019.  That's progress, sort of.

Doug

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Doug1029
On 2/10/2020 at 8:13 AM, Doug1029 said:

Checked it out.  Appears like we hit the bottom of the current cycle in December and January.  If he's right, we won't have long to wait to find out if temps are really going down.  So far, they haven't.

We actually hit bottom in November at 1.1 sunspots per day.  We have started back up.  January averaged 9.2 sunspots per day.  Numbers are higher than the last solar cycle.  Doesn't look like that cold sun cycle is starting, but I'd like a little more data before I go out on a limb.

Doug

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Dustyrose33
22 hours ago, Dustyrose33 said:

There was a guy that wrote a book titled "5/5/2005" which many years ago predicted the world would be cast into a sudden global ice age on 5/5/2005 but obviously it didn't happen.

I was wrong about the time that guy, Richard W, Noone, wrote about the alleged ice age.   His book was titled 5/5/2000 - Ice, The Ultimate Disaster, and that's the day and year the ice age was to happen.   I don't think he took into consideration global warming though.

Edited by Dustyrose33
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Desertrat56
11 hours ago, Dustyrose33 said:

I was wrong about the time that guy, Richard W, Noone, wrote about the alleged ice age.   His book was titled 5/5/2000 - Ice, The Ultimate Disaster, and that's the day and year the ice age was to happen.   I don't think he took into consideration global warming though.

Obviously he was working from an incomplete data set.

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