Turkey vows to retaliate in strongest manner

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Syria has denied that Turkey has retaliated at all.

Erdog might be writing checks his military can't cash.  

[Mr.United_Nations]

Syrian helicopter shot down  by Turkish backed rebels 

https://mobile.twitter.com/mh197351/status/1227171326227554306?s=09

[DarkHunter]

Turkey has been seen moving more MLRS units to the Syrian border along with more APCs and other armored vehicles.  Videos have made it online of Turkish self propelled artillery and MLRS units firing on Syrian Arab Army positions during Turkish backed rebel attacks.

Also earlier today one of the pro-Assad militias fired small arms at an American patrol, no Americans were killed or wounded not sure about the militia members.

[Tatetopa]

On 2/9/2020 at 10:29 AM, RoofGardener said:

magine the shrieking from AOC and The Squad about Islamophobia and Racism if this had been an American attack ? 

But a Muslim Turkish attack ? 

Total silence. 

Well I thought the point was for the US to disentangle ourselves from Middle East conflicts.  If we don't want to be the world policeman, we have got to let other countries settle their  own fights.  But wait!  Has President Trump been shrieking?  No he has not. Want to make a point of that? 

Its too much to ask that we have learned our lesson so quickly, but in training, one need s to reward small steps toward a goal.  Good job AOC.  Good job Squad.   Good job President Trump.

 

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Well I thought the point was for the US to disentangle ourselves from Middle East conflicts.  If we don't want to be the world policeman, we have got to let other countries settle their  own fights.  But wait!  Has President Trump been shrieking?  No he has not. Want to make a point of that? 

Its too much to ask that we have learned our lesson so quickly, but in training, one need s to reward small steps toward a goal.  Good job AOC.  Good job Squad.   Good job President Trump.

 

Pretty sure his point has nothing to do with the general geopolitical situation.  He's just pointing out the media's double standard and hypocrisy when Muslims kill Muslims.

[Tatetopa]

4 hours ago, and then said:

Pretty sure his point has nothing to do with the general geopolitical situation.  He's just pointing out the media's double standard and hypocrisy when Muslims kill Muslims.

I suppose you are right. I sure would like it if we continue to climb our way out of that quagmire though. 

[Gromdor]

Well, I wonder if it will get to the point where Turkey invokes NATO.  I also wonder if Trump would honor that treaty.

[DarkHunter]

A second Syrian helicopter was shot down a few hours ago, not clear if it was shot down by rebels supplied with MANPADs by Turkey or if Turkish forces shot it down themselves.  Russia though is saying that it was shot down by Turkish forces from one of their observation posts.

Turkish forces have entered Atarib which is a little less than 20 miles west of Aleppo.  Also Turkish artillery once again fired on Syrian Arab Army positions from within Turkey it seems.

Russia is increasing the security for their embassy in Ankara after the Russian ambassador has received threats.

[+Hammerclaw]

Pulling our troops out of the middle of that mess left them with little inhibition not to gloriously slaughter one another. The Russians are far more circumspect, no doubt with visions of Afghanistan, dancing in their heads. 

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

Pulling our troops out of the middle of that mess left them with little inhibition not to gloriously slaughter one another. The Russians are far more circumspect, no doubt with visions of Afghanistan, dancing in their heads. 

I agree... so far, very few of the casualties have been Russian military.  The Mercs don't really count in the eyes of the public.  Putin doesn't want to butt heads with such a large and well-trained military but he still has ways of making life miserable for Erdog, should it come to that.  He prefers thug moves, in the dark, to make his point known. 

[DarkHunter]

Seems everyday more Turkish military convoys keep entering Syria, from videos and pictures it looks like instead of just moving in vehicles and equipment to give to the Turkish backed rebels that Turkish soldiers are also entering Syria.  

So far from the current offensive actions from Syria and Russia going on since December about a third of Idlib has been captured, mostly the immediate area around Allepo and securing the M5 highway.

Lastly seems the Syrian Arab Army have got tired of being shot at by Turkish forces with no response and have fired on a Turkish position.

[DarkHunter]

Only 10 days left till the end of February with the significance being that the Syrian Arab Army had till the end of February to withdrawal from the de-escalation zone in Idlib or Turkey would launch a military operation to push them out.

Currently Turkish artillery continues to shell Syrian positions while Turkish military equipment and men continue to either enter Idlib or sent to the Syrian border. 

A video was captured of another military convoy entering Syria and this convoy was carrying between 15 to 20 tanks.  While Turkey has sent a handful of tanks into Syria already those seemed to of been either M48s or M60s and were probably given to the Tirkish backed rebels while the tanks in the video while hard to make out look to be Leopard 2 tanks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IdlibEn/status/1230257287534694400

[+and-then]

8 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Only 10 days left till the end of February with the significance being that the Syrian Arab Army had till the end of February to withdrawal from the de-escalation zone in Idlib or Turkey would launch a military operation to push them out.

I understand Erdog's desire to stop the endless flow of refugees out of Syria but I don't understand his willingness to get into a potential shooting war that Russia might interfere in.  Is the oil worth the costs?

[DarkHunter]

7 hours ago, and then said:

I understand Erdog's desire to stop the endless flow of refugees out of Syria but I don't understand his willingness to get into a potential shooting war that Russia might interfere in.  Is the oil worth the costs?

Isnt really any oil where Turkey is threatening its military operation so that is an unlikely reason.  

Seems to be everything going on is more for political reasons then anything else.  Erdog has more or less tried to show himself as the next Sultan of a revived Ottoman empire and Syria was a significant region of the Ottoman empire and there is some stuff in northern Syria culturally important to Turkey.  Also a decent scale military intervention would distract people from Turkey's massive internal problems.  The Turkish lira has come close to crashing completely a few times already due to Erdogan's economic policies which he wont budge on significantly.  Lastly Erdogan's popularity in Turkey is just starting to slip and successful wars do boost popularity.

More then likely Erdogan is taking an extremely calculated risk that Russia will not intervene significantly.  The facts on the ground are massively in Turkey's favor.  Russia only has about 70 planes in Syria of which only about 20 to 24 can challenge air superiority compared to Turkey's 245 F-16s, plus the airbase the Russian planes operate out of is approximately 40 to 50 km away from the Turkish border which puts it well within range of all of their rocket artillery and within range/barely out of range of their howitzers.

For ground forces it's even worse as Russia doesnt have any heavy armor or artillery in Syria and really just has some special forces and a few hundred soldiers at most acting as light infantry.  Turkey could easily bring hundreds of different artillery pieces, hundreds to over a thousand of tanks, and tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands soldiers.  That is not even counting the tens of thousands of Turkish backed rebels which some have a lot of combat experience and the rest would be cannon fodder.

A Russian attack within Turkey would bring NATO into the conflict and would create a nightmare scenario for Russia as Ukraine very well might get involved also which would create a massive front from the Baltic sea in the north to the black sea in the south which is the exact opposite of current Russian military doctrine of trying to fight a quick limited war in Europe on a narrow front to achieve a political victory.

[Grim Reaper 6]

F-Turkey

Peace

[Grim Reaper 6]

8 hours ago, and then said:

I understand Erdog's desire to stop the endless flow of refugees out of Syria but I don't understand his willingness to get into a potential shooting war that Russia might interfere in.  Is the oil worth the costs?

The oil is still currently under the control of the US Military, so I doubt oil is the reason.

Peace

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 2/13/2020 at 4:58 AM, Gromdor said:

Well, I wonder if it will get to the point where Turkey invokes NATO.  I also wonder if Trump would honor that treaty.

Ah No!!!

Peace

[Duke Wellington]

On 2/9/2020 at 3:11 AM, Black Red Devil said:

“In the event of a new attack, the proper response will be given in the strongest manner based on the right of self-defense,” the ministry said in a statement.

The ministry also said Turkish observation posts in Idlib “continue their duties and are capable of protecting themselves with the weapons and equipment they possess.”

On Feb. 3, an Assad regime attack in Idlib, northwestern Syria, killed seven Turkish soldiers and one civilian contractor working with the Turkish military and injured over a dozen people.

In retaliation, Turkey struck over 50 targets and killed 76 Syrian soldiers.

link

I wonder where Russia fits into this.  Neutral, with long time ally Assad or future ally Erdogan?

Turkey will consider it an act of war if Syria attacks Turkish forces already inside its country lmao.

Thats so wrong.

[DarkHunter]

Seems about 2 hours ago there was a Russian airstrike on a Turkish military position, 2 killed and 5 wounded.  Also hearing some rumors of Turkey asking America for patriot missiles to deter Russia.  Some reports are saying Turkey is holding Syria responsible for the airstrike despite it being done by Russia.

Edited February 20, 2020 by DarkHunter

[Gromdor]

3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Seems about 2 hours ago there was a Russian airstrike on a Turkish military position, 2 killed and 5 wounded.  Also hearing some rumors of Turkey asking America for patriot missiles to deter Russia.  Some reports are saying Turkey is holding Syria responsible for the airstrike despite it being done by Russia.

Hmm.  Wasn't Turkey supposed to buy the S-400 system from Russia?

[DarkHunter]

33 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

Hmm.  Wasn't Turkey supposed to buy the S-400 system from Russia?

From what I have heard the S-400 has been delivered but it is not operational yet

[Mr.United_Nations]

I remmeber a few members on here thought the Syrian civil war was nearly over, well look what's happend it's a complete cluster ****, it's a mess

[Setton]

6 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

A Russian attack within Turkey would bring NATO into the conflict and would create a nightmare scenario for Russia as Ukraine very well might get involved also which would create a massive front from the Baltic sea in the north to the black sea in the south which is the exact opposite of current Russian military doctrine of trying to fight a quick limited war in Europe on a narrow front to achieve a political victory.

I don't think that's the case. 

Isn't NATO a defence treaty? As Turkey is the aggressor, we are under no obligation to support them. 

[+and-then]

38 minutes ago, Setton said:

I don't think that's the case. 

Isn't NATO a defence treaty? As Turkey is the aggressor, we are under no obligation to support them. 

Interesting point.  I tend to agree on this.  The problem will come when it throws the already dodgy alliance into turmoil when article V gets ignored.

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, Setton said:

I don't think that's the case. 

Isn't NATO a defence treaty? As Turkey is the aggressor, we are under no obligation to support them. 

It's a bit more complicated than just being a defence treaty.  There is nothing within the NATO charter that disqualifies a member country from calling article 5 cause they were attacked due to them being the aggressor.

Article 5 states

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security ."

Cause I know this is the internet and the chance of someone saying most of Turkey is in Asia and wouldnt count there is the first half of article 6.

"For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France ², on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;"

Even than if article 5 cant be used there is article 4 which states

"The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

It is possible for Turkey to make arguments that territorial integrity and/or security are at risk and persuade some if not all of NATO to get involved.

Just about everything I have read has said that an attack on the Turkish military inside Syria would not allow Turkey to use article 5 but any attack within Turkey would allow Turkey to call article 5.  Such a situation though never has occured and how NATO would react cant truly be guaranteed.

On an unrelated but still interesting note, it is of US legal opinion from if I remember at least the mid 60's that article 5 would not cover an attack on Hawaii.

Edited February 20, 2020 by DarkHunter