Turkey vows to retaliate in strongest manner

[DarkHunter]

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

No thats not exactly actuate. Turkish troops have been imbedded with their Islamic allies and been the beneficiaries of NATO grade weapons and Turkish leadership form the start. But i was referring to the failures of the Turkish Nato army and not the terrorists it supports. Maybe i wasn't clear on that. The war is winding down and Idlib is the last Islamic stronghold remaining. Turkey won't commit any troop either for fear of killing Russians and domestic opinion at home. The Turkish public by and large view this as Erdogans adventure. His legacy so Erdogan is walking bare foot on broken glass when it comes to causalities.

The only Turkish troops embedded with the rebels have been small commando teams.  Turkish artillery has supported the rebels with occasional airstrikes but they are not embedded with the actual front line combat troops.  The bulk of the Turkish troops, including their tanks, are still just north of Idlib city.  

What failures of the Turkish army, they havent engaged any Syrians yet other then artillery shelling positions.

As for the Turkish public around 70% to 80% support military intervention in Syria.

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

LOL. buddy, after the killing of the 33 Turkish soldiers embedded in the rebel battle order Russia stood down and allowed the Turks some pay back to appease their anger at losing some many soldiers in one day. You must obviously be Turkish in not able to see or read this. Russian S400 missiles and its fighter craft control Syrian airspace. If not then why is Idlib the last province still fighting against Assad.

The Turkish troops killed were in a convoy entering Syria, they were not embedded in the rebel battle order.  The only ones saying they were embedded with rebel combat units were the Russians.  The problem with the Russian narrative is that they were only a few kilometers over the Turkish border when they were bombed and no where near any combat zones or rebel troops.

Also you do understand that Russia only has like 30 aircraft left in Syria that are divided up between helicopters, transports, and fighter jets.  If you believe 30 aircraft and a few anti air batteries can secure the airspace from hundreds of opposing jets and drones you are drastically over estimating Russian abilities especially when Turkey has proven adept at destroying Russian made anti air systems.

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Turkey tried both. Article 4 is voicing an issue of concern. Turkey did so and i was wrong in saying that it failed. Whoopee. Article 5 on the other hand was brought up informally and Turkey was advised that Syria is an adventure and not NATO's business. Again link provided:

 “We do not question the viability of Article 5; on the contrary, we expect it to be fulfilled,” Gülnur Aybet, a senior foreign policy adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said Tuesday at NATO 

https://www.turkishminute.com/2019/12/03/turkey-could-invoke-natos-article-5-against-syrian-kurdish-militias-erdogan-aide/

So it seems you are wrong again. 

Tossing around the idea of trying to invoke article 5 to see how NATO would respond and actually invoking it are two drastically different things which you seem incapable of understanding the difference of.

Also why do you think an article from December 3, 2019 on Turkey considering invoking article 5 on PKK attacks is relevant for events occuring in February of 2020 involving Turkey and Syria.  Do you bother to look at the links or just link to the first thing you think will help your argument and hope no one looks at it.

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

You see you are your own worse enemy when you post. Turkey destroyed SYRIAN air defences. Not Russian because 1 they'll be crazy too try and 2 because the Russian stepped aside for Turkey to save face and avenge its loss of land in Idlib and the death of its soldiers. 

Erdogan told Putin to let his country deal with the Syrian government forces alone.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/turkey-tells-russia-to-step-aside-in-syria-amid-airstrikes/

...and Putin did. 

You do understand that Russia does not have a massive military presence in Syria right.  They didnt destroy Russian ran equipment cause there just isn't that much Russian equipment to destroy but they have destroyed a lot of Russian supplied equipment.

Russia only has about 4,300 total military personnel in Syria of which the vast majority are sailors on the ships stationed there.  In terms of air defense the only ones Russia has there are 2 S-400 units, a few S-300 batteries, and 3 pantsir to act as point defense.  Russia just doesnt have a large military presence in Syria and what limited air defense they have is to solely guard the two Russian bases not to be used to secure Syrian airspace.

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Turkey is holding out hoping for European and American help. Erdogan has weaponised the misery of the refugees and i suspect probably going to threaten to leave NATO if he isn't backed.

NATO, minus Greece, has issued a statement in support of Turkey and America has said they will supply weapons to Turkey but wont reposition a patriot battery as there are a limited number and other areas have been deemed more vital.  Also the Dutch FM is calling for a no fly zone over Idlib.

3 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Looking at the map @DarkHunter the Turkish observation points have been overrun and Assad no controls the M5 highway and the M4 is under joint Russian and Turkish control. Effectively Turkish troops in the south and their allies have been swept aside. There are 4 other Turkish observation posts to the north that leed to the Turkish controlled former lands of the Kurds. Once Idlib is liberated i think Assad is referring to taking the rest. I can see the Russians and Syrians coming in from the south and the Kurds from the east.  

You honestly have no idea what you are talking about, it seems you must be getting all of your information from purely pro-Russian sources.  First off no observation points have been overran, something like 9 put of 36 have been surrounded by the Syrian Arab army but they havent in general fired on them or stopped them from being resupplied.  Second the rebels are still in the south, the ceasefire gives Turkey 5 to 6 months to withdrawal the rebel forces to north of the M4 highway but no one is really expecting the ceasefire to hold or the terms to be honored.  Lastly when Assad talks about liberating eastern Syria from terrorists he isnt talking about the other two Turkish held areas in northern Syria.

I normally would go into more detail but you just post so much inaccurate stuff it's hard to cover it all and I honestly got better things to do.

Edited March 7, 2020 by DarkHunter

[Unusual Tournament]

Erdogan’s dance with Putin: Humiliating, but face-saving

 

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his entourage of senior officials headed to Moscow on March 5, their expectation was to achieve a quick cease-fire in Syria’s rebel bastion of Idlib. They had expressed this desire the previous day. Many Turkey experts and pundits predicted that Erdogan’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin would produce a temporary deal that could be face-saving for Erdogan without Syria having the military gains achieved on the Idlib battlefield reversed in favor of Turkey and its Syrian proxies. 

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/turkey-russia-syria-idlib-deal-erdogan-accepts-regimes-gains.html#ixzz6FzEd01xl

[RoofGardener]

Hmm... this is all very interesting. 

But.. here's the thing... why should I care ? 

I mean.. Turks vs Syrians vs Russians ? 

It's like watching a wasp land on a nettle. ONE of them is going to get stung. But... we really don't care which ? 

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmm... this is all very interesting. 

But.. here's the thing... why should I care ? 

I mean.. Turks vs Syrians vs Russians ? 

It's like watching a wasp land on a nettle. ONE of them is going to get stung. But... we really don't care which ? 

Only to the extent that others inevitably get drawn in or blamed.  I'm a bit surprised that Erdog's political instincts are so lousy.  You wouldn't imagine him having the success he's had with a political instinct like that.  I guess it's easier to accomplish if you are attempting to appeal to the hate of one group toward another within your own culture.  

[RoofGardener]

9 hours ago, and then said:

Only to the extent that others inevitably get drawn in or blamed.  I'm a bit surprised that Erdog's political instincts are so lousy.  You wouldn't imagine him having the success he's had with a political instinct like that.  I guess it's easier to accomplish if you are attempting to appeal to the hate of one group toward another within your own culture.  

Meh.. I can't see it. Who could get 'drawn in' ?

Russia can't really attack Turkey.. not in any meaningful way. The Turkish navy would cream the Russian Black Sea fleet. The Turkish air force has almost 300 advanced-bock F16's... they'd easily overmatch the relative handful of Mig's and Su's that Russia has in the region. The Turkish air-defence grid would give Russian long-range bombers a run for their money. And whilst the Russian Army - on paper - is larger than the Turkish army, the Russians are a long way away, and with only limited capability to move their troops to the Turkish land borders. (or even into Syria). 

Non of the Middle-Eastern countries seem to have any desire to get involved in Syria. The European Union would want to do something about the Syrian refugees BEFORE they arrive in Europe, but I can't imagine wanting to get any more involved militarily; certainly not against either Russia or Turkey. 

[+and-then]

15 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Meh.. I can't see it. Who could get 'drawn in' ?

Oh, there are lots of possibilities if the right buttons were pushed.  Putin is more of a knife fighter and loves to take people out when they're vulnerable but if he got challenged too overtly and risked embarrassment, you could see him miscalculate.  Have Turkish F-16s take down a few Sukhois with Russian pilots or kill Russian regulars in an area where they should have been safe and he'd have to act.  Strongly.  Erdog would then be forced to do the same or risk losing the red meat Islamists he has been cultivating.  Miscalculations are have unpredictable results when they happen to strongmen with attitudes.  Putin may not have sufficient force available in theater but if he felt the need, it wouldn't take long to change that.  He doesn't want war with Turkey but he may value his new footprint in the region enough to play hard to keep it.

[RoofGardener]

8 hours ago, and then said:

Oh, there are lots of possibilities if the right buttons were pushed.  Putin is more of a knife fighter and loves to take people out when they're vulnerable but if he got challenged too overtly and risked embarrassment, you could see him miscalculate.  Have Turkish F-16s take down a few Sukhois with Russian pilots or kill Russian regulars in an area where they should have been safe and he'd have to act.  Strongly.  Erdog would then be forced to do the same or risk losing the red meat Islamists he has been cultivating.  Miscalculations are have unpredictable results when they happen to strongmen with attitudes.  Putin may not have sufficient force available in theater but if he felt the need, it wouldn't take long to change that.  He doesn't want war with Turkey but he may value his new footprint in the region enough to play hard to keep it.

OK.. suppose Turkey DOES shoot down some Russian aircraft over Syria. What - precisely - is Russia going to do about it ? Unless you envisage Putin threatening the use of nuclear weapons, I can't really see what - in practice - he could do ? 

Fire cruise missiles into Turkey from the Black Sea fleet ? It's possible, but they would do relatively little damage, and Turkey could respond by sinking Putin's ships. 

Long range bombers ? Perhaps, but Turkey has got a pretty decent static air defence network, before you even consider its large fleet of F16's. 

Sanctions against oil/gas exports to Turkey ? Again, possible, but Turkey has ready access to oil/gas supplies from the Middle East. 

If Turkey shared a land border with Rusrsia, then I grant you it would be a different kettle of fish. But they don't.