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Eldorado

Hottest January in recorded history

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Eldorado

"The planet experienced its hottest January in recorded history last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

"It was the 44th consecutive January, and the 421st consecutive month, with temperatures above the 20th century average, according to NOAA.

"The milestone is just the latest in a string of climate records set in recent years."

Full monty at NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/earth-just-had-its-hottest-january-recorded-history-n1136426

And at cNet: https://www.cnet.com/news/january-2020-was-earths-hottest-january-in-141-years-of-climate-records/

At the NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/january-2020-was-earth-s-hottest-january-on-record

Edited by Eldorado
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susieice

It was just last January- February that we got hit with those polar vortexes that killed 22 people. Coldest weather in 20 years. January was slightly warm up until then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January–February_2019_North_American_cold_wave

 

Edited by susieice
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Aaron2017

"In Recorded History" really means = 'Since 1910'.  Doesn't sound as dramatic though if the media just said that of course.  So they let their reader's imagination take flight and let them assume that 'in recorded history' means 'since the time of Moses'.  The golden rule to making a story appear sensational is to be as vague as possible and let the viewer's own paranoia and fear fill in the blanks.

 

 

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

"In Recorded History" really means = 'Since 1910'.  Doesn't sound as dramatic though if the media just said that of course.  So they let their reader's imagination take flight and let them assume that 'in recorded history' means 'since the time of Moses'.  The golden rule to making a story appear sensational is to be as vague as possible and let the viewer's own paranoia and fear fill in the blanks.

 

 

NOAA/NASAs' Weather Bureau records are complete back to 1895.  The Weather Bureau data actually go back to 1891 (1892 in Oklahoma).  Before that there are numerous gaps and stations were not in continuous operation, but eventually we may be able to piece together a single record going back, possibly as far as the mid-to-late 1820s.

Still, that record for January would probably be a record on any dataset.

Doug

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Golden Duck
4 hours ago, tmcom said:

Says the hottest January globally on record is crap.

Tries to prove it with an article, from December, about the coldest summer day in Australia.

:hmm:

Edited by Golden Duck
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Habitat
2 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Says the hottest January globally on record is crap.

Tries to prove it with an article, from December, about the coldest summer day in Australia.

He's obviously got the aircon screwed up high !

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tmcom
1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

Says the hottest January globally on record is crap.

Tries to prove it with an article, from December, about the coldest summer day in Australia.

:hmm:

 

1 hour ago, Habitat said:

He's obviously got the aircon screwed up high !

True, l should have posted this one! :P

https://electroverse.net/25-locations-across-australia-just-set-their-coldest-january-days-ever/

Quote

But facts like these matter little in the emotional debate that is climate change. Everything I’ve written above has little hope of competing against a photo of a burning koala bear. But regardless of any spin, the fact remains that Australia is currently anomalously cold. There can be no debate there. And so in what we’re being fed as a heat-induced climate Apocalypse, many locations down-under are currently the coldest they’ve ever been for the time of year.

I woke up today and it was light rain, and cool, (borderline turning heaters on) in January when we should, (according to experts with their Parker Bros Degrees) we should be seeing apocalyptic, unprecedented heat waves.

It is good that this sort of crap is appearing on mainstream media, when a lot of AU, are experiencing abnormally cold weather, make more of the brainless herd wake up!

B)

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Golden Duck
1 minute ago, tmcom said:

 

True, l should have posted this one! :P

https://electroverse.net/25-locations-across-australia-just-set-their-coldest-january-days-ever/

I woke up today and it was light rain, and cool, (borderline turning heaters on) in January when we should, (according to experts with their Parker Bros Degrees) we should be seeing apocalyptic, unprecedented heat waves.

It is good that this sort of crap is appearing on mainstream media, when a lot of AU, are experiencing abnormally cold weather, make more of the brainless herd wake up!

B)

What is an apocalyptic heatwave?  Who said we should be experiencing them this weekend?

How does one day in January affect the the month globally?

PS. Where now in February, not January; and weatherzone say it still feels like 32C after sunset.  Heaters are the last thing on anyone's mind in this Australian state.

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tmcom
2 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

What is an apocalyptic heatwave?  Who said we should be experiencing them this weekend?

How does one day in January affect the the month globally?

PS. Where now in February, not January; and weatherzone say it still feels like 32C after sunset.  Heaters are the last thing on anyone's mind in this Australian state.

Well weatherzone has no idea, since it is not 32c at sunset here, and l have had my heater on!

And all of the BS links say so, first post!

And according to the cashstrapped NOAA, January was the hottest globally over 141 years, lol, I bet l could find a hotter one, but couldn't be .....ed!

B)

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Golden Duck
5 minutes ago, tmcom said:

Well weatherzone has no idea, since it is not 32c at sunset here, and l have had my heater on!

And all of the BS links say so, first post!

And according to the cashstrapped NOAA, January was the hottest globally over 141 years, lol, I bet l could find a hotter one, but couldn't be .....ed!

B)

You were just quoting weatherzone in your link.  It just proves you only listen to what you want to hear.

Not one place in Queensland was below 25C at 7:02 pm. Many are nowhere near cold enough to even think using a heater.  I don't use a heater in the middle of winter in Brisbane.

If you could even give the number of weather stations used by NOAA it would surprise.  Getting data and calculating any descriptive statistics is beyond your abilities.  That's the real reason.  Indeed, you would be ".....ed!"

^_^B)

 

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Habitat

It's hard to believe we'd huddle in front of a kerosene heater in a Brisbane winter when I was a kid.

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Habitat

I remember being told that frosts occurred as late as October back in the day. Odds of that today, a million to one.

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tmcom
1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

You were just quoting weatherzone in your link.  It just proves you only listen to what you want to hear.

Proves that you didn't list where you live or which state you are referring to,......! If weatherzone listed Vic, AU, as 32c at sunset then would be dead wrong.

1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

Not one place in Queensland was below 25C at 7:02 pm. Many are nowhere near cold enough to even think using a heater.  I don't use a heater in the middle of winter in Brisbane.

If you could even give the number of weather stations used by NOAA it would surprise.  Getting data and calculating any descriptive statistics is beyond your abilities.  That's the real reason.  Indeed, you would be ".....ed!"

^_^B)

And what happens when l do, exactly, you and others either ignore, forget name call or try, to decredit the poster, based on exhaustive research, (you don't like it)!

B)

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Golden Duck
1 hour ago, tmcom said:

Proves that you didn't list where you live or which state you are referring to,......! If weatherzone listed Vic, AU, as 32c at sunset then would be dead wrong.

It was still 30C at Swan Hill at 7pm.  That's not heater weather.  Your world is even smaller.

Quote

And what happens when l do, exactly, you and others either ignore, forget name call or try, to decredit the poster, based on exhaustive research, (you don't like it)!

B)

You are the one calling people names.  I just said you lack ability, particularly numeracy.

Honestly, who would have any confidence in your comprehension after you said there 80,000 elements in the atmosphere and 33 different versions of CO2.

Fitzhenry's says BOM data is more accurate than satellites.  You ignore that.

Fitzhenry's data is blatantly cherry picked.  You ignore that.  And when his figures are analysed under a regression model it still shows a rise, albeit not one you can be sure of.

Nils-Axel Mörner is an advocate for dowsing. He didn't take up the offer to claim James Randi's prize.

Derrick and Plimer both work for the mining industry.

These are the people Bolt and Jones turn to.

Actually, you engage in alarmism too, when you say people will die when there's no power for there air-con; but, then try to assert that it not really that hot anyway.

If you want to dispute the global average you need global data; ie, from all around the globe.  Your back yard, on its own, is not significant.

 

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Essan
4 hours ago, tmcom said:

 

True, l should have posted this one! :P

https://electroverse.net/25-locations-across-australia-just-set-their-coldest-january-days-ever/

I woke up today and it was light rain, and cool, (borderline turning heaters on) in January when we should, (according to experts with their Parker Bros Degrees) we should be seeing apocalyptic, unprecedented heat waves.

It is good that this sort of crap is appearing on mainstream media, when a lot of AU, are experiencing abnormally cold weather, make more of the brainless herd wake up!

B)

You mean like ACU - which had it's hottest day ever in January

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-04/heat-record-canberra-penrith-fire-bushfire-bureau-of-meteorology/11841014

With the cold weather in Canberra continuing into Feb ....

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6609390/canberra-records-all-time-highest-minimum-temperature/



And if you live in Vic, then presumably you were out of the country at the end of January?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/hot-humid-weather-welcome-to-the-tropics/11917070

 

btw it's not even cold enough to need the heating on here in England at the moment (where it's supposed to be winter) .... 



 

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Doug1029
6 hours ago, tmcom said:

 

True, l should have posted this one! :P

https://electroverse.net/25-locations-across-australia-just-set-their-coldest-january-days-ever/

I woke up today and it was light rain, and cool, (borderline turning heaters on) in January when we should, (according to experts with their Parker Bros Degrees) we should be seeing apocalyptic, unprecedented heat waves.

It is good that this sort of crap is appearing on mainstream media, when a lot of AU, are experiencing abnormally cold weather, make more of the brainless herd wake up!

B)

It's GLOBAL warming, braintrust.  It's not how warm it is/isn't in Australia.  While you were having record cold, we in Oklahoma are having our warmest winter ever.  I have yet to wear a coat to work and winter is almost over.  Average readings from all over the world to get the GLOBAL temp, then compare with previous GLOBAL temps to see if there has been a change.

Doug

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tmcom
3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

It was still 30C at Swan Hill at 7pm.  That's not heater weather.  Your world is even smaller.

You are the one calling people names.  I just said you lack ability, particularly numeracy.

Honestly, who would have any confidence in your comprehension after you said there 80,000 elements in the atmosphere and 33 different versions of CO2.

Fitzhenry's says BOM data is more accurate than satellites.  You ignore that.

And there is left wing BOM data, and valid data, under the BOM umbrella, (that they ignore or bury for the most part) one says a 10cm sea level rise n Sydney H, and the one he is referring to or the Fort D, (three stations) shows a 6cm drop.

But which is valid, l would expect the one which is the same as the Au study of all our guages, and Tasmanias one, which shows a negligible rise, and flatline averages over the last 50-70 years, l don't ignore that,....

3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Fitzhenry's data is blatantly cherry picked.  You ignore that.  And when his figures are analysed under a regression model it still shows a rise, albeit not one you can be sure of.

Blatently cherry picked, lol, l doubt it, or more likely when it was rising he averaged those and same for drops, but if he or you add's up all of them it would show a similar pattern to the valid, (NOAA does have raw data, inbetween the BS stuff) chart shown previously, (and this chart is the same as the previous material above, so thrashing overwheming evidence with ? ,is beyond, me.

3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Nils-Axel Mörner is an advocate for dowsing. He didn't take up the offer to claim James Randi's prize.

Derrick and Plimer both work for the mining industry.

These are the people Bolt and Jones turn to.

Actually, you engage in alarmism too, when you say people will die when there's no power for there air-con; but, then try to assert that it not really that hot anyway.

If you want to dispute the global average you need global data; ie, from all around the globe.  Your back yard, on its own, is not significant.

the rest is name calling and not much else, and yeah, counting, you got another one wrong, l never said air con deaths, in the future as you seem to be saying, but l did say AU went nuts in 189...something, with a stickin hot heat wave, (far hotter than the maste.....ing headlines we are currently getting.

The death rate from the cold is far higher.

B)

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Doug1029
17 minutes ago, tmcom said:

And there is left wing BOM data, and valid data, under the BOM umbrella, (that they ignore or bury for the most part) one says a 10cm sea level rise n Sydney H, and the one he is referring to or the Fort D, (three stations) shows a 6cm drop.

But which is valid, l would expect the one which is the same as the Au study of all our guages, and Tasmanias one, which shows a negligible rise, and flatline averages over the last 50-70 years, l don't ignore that,....

Which analysis uses ALL available data?  That's likely to be the most-accurate one.  Use a regression line (straight line) to determine rate of change.  That will be the most-accurate one and least affected by data errors (See below).

 

I suspect I know what your problem is:  the very first reading from May 1914 is 1.111.  The very last reading from August 2019 is 0.990.  Subtract the last from the first and you show a DROP in sea level of 0.121m. almost exactly what you are saying.

But there is lots of reason to doubt the accuracy of that first reading.  First, it is the ninth largest reading in the entire dataset of 1264 observations.  That means there's a 0.006329 (0.6329%) chance of getting a higher figure by chance.  Second, the difference between the first and second readings shows the second largest drop in the entire dataset.  AND, it was taken at a time when the people at the station were just learning how to set up and use a tide gauge.  That means there is about a 0.0008 chance of the first reading being accurate.  Thus, I strongly suspect that first reading is a bad one.  Somebody didn't put the gauge on a sturdy enough base and it shifted during the first month.  If there are other bad readings in there, I can't find them.  And in any case, the deletion of troublesome readings should be engaged in very sparsely.

There are whole books written on finding bad data and deleting it from your analysis.  I suggest you find one and study up on the subject to learn the difference between deleting a bad reading and cherry-picking data.  I don't think you deliberately cherry-picked this dataset, but rather, you got ahold of a bad reading that distorted your results.

Doug

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Golden Duck
2 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

Which analysis uses ALL available data?  That's likely to be the most-accurate one.  Use a regression line (straight line) to determine rate of change.  That will be the most-accurate one and least affected by data errors (See below).

 

I suspect I know what your problem is:  the very first reading from May 1914 is 1.111.  The very last reading from August 2019 is 0.990.  Subtract the last from the first and you show a DROP in sea level of 0.121m. almost exactly what you are saying.

But there is lots of reason to doubt the accuracy of that first reading.  First, it is the ninth largest reading in the entire dataset of 1264 observations.  That means there's a 0.006329 (0.6329%) chance of getting a higher figure by chance.  Second, the difference between the first and second readings shows the second largest drop in the entire dataset.  AND, it was taken at a time when the people at the station were just learning how to set up and use a tide gauge.  That means there is about a 0.0008 chance of the first reading being accurate.  Thus, I strongly suspect that first reading is a bad one.  Somebody didn't put the gauge on a sturdy enough base and it shifted during the first month.  If there are other bad readings in there, I can't find them.  And in any case, the deletion of troublesome readings should be engaged in very sparsely.

There are whole books written on finding bad data and deleting it from your analysis.  I suggest you find one and study up on the subject to learn the difference between deleting a bad reading and cherry-picking data.  I don't think you deliberately cherry-picked this dataset, but rather, you got ahold of a bad reading that distorted your results.

Doug

Doug, the first reading, the May 1914 mean, was based on just 10 observations.  It's not even derived from a full cycle of the tides.

The low observation for May 1914 is 0.470m.  The low observation is usually close to zero.  And, this was pointed out to tmcom in his thread; but, has been ignored.

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Doug1029
1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

Doug, the first reading, the May 1914 mean, was based on just 10 observations.  It's not even derived from a full cycle of the tides.

The low observation for May 1914 is 0.470m.  The low observation is usually close to zero.  And, this was pointed out to tmcom in his thread; but, has been ignored.

Thanks for posting that.  I thought something looked suspicious.

Doug

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RabidMongoose
On 2/14/2020 at 12:35 PM, Eldorado said:

"The planet experienced its hottest January in recorded history last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

"It was the 44th consecutive January, and the 421st consecutive month, with temperatures above the 20th century average, according to NOAA.

"The milestone is just the latest in a string of climate records set in recent years."

Full monty at NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/earth-just-had-its-hottest-january-recorded-history-n1136426

And at cNet: https://www.cnet.com/news/january-2020-was-earths-hottest-january-in-141-years-of-climate-records/

At the NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/january-2020-was-earth-s-hottest-january-on-record

As I look out of my window the snow I can see makes me wonder whether they get their data from.

It has been freezing here all month.

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

As I look out of my window the snow I can see makes me wonder whether they get their data from.

It has been freezing here all month.

Where are you from?

Doug

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