US Fatality Projections - COVID-19

[Raptor Witness]

US Fatality Projections - COVID-19 & Mutations by 2023.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Raptor Witness

[acidhead]

Just curious... before I play

Do we win a prize ?

[Raptor Witness]

Just now, acidhead said:

Just curious... before I play

Do we win a prize ?

I guess that depends on if the American spy agencies decide to hold another contest this year, and I have to correct their contest questions, again.

 

[acidhead]

5 minutes ago, Raptor Witness said:

I guess that depends on if the American spy agencies decide to hold another contest this year, and I have to correct their contest questions, again.

 

They fear your knowledge and wisdom Raptor Witness. 

 

[freetoroam]

41 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Just curious... before I play

Do we win a prize ?

Yes, a trip to Florida.

I voted over a million btw. 

[Raptor Witness]

1 hour ago, acidhead said:

They fear your knowledge and wisdom Raptor Witness. 

I seriously doubt that.

Besides, fear isn’t the goal, the goal is to simply break the spell of humanism.

Some men may try to hide the truth, but it won’t matter, because the flaming sword that has appeared in the sky will be plain for all to see. It was, after all ..... coronal in origin.

Quote

The state of confusion's days are numbered. They will offer no one refuge from the storms ahead.

Their bow will be knocked from their right hand, and the arrows stripped from their left. 

Their fate is written on the sky for all to see. 
Source 8-8-2017

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Raptor Witness

[SHaYap]

2020 is the new 1999....

Quote

[00.03:47]

~

[drakonwick]

7 minutes ago, third_eye said:

2020 is the new 1999....

Y2K... Nailed it! 

 

[Space Commander Travis]

You seem to be following the extremely precise and scientifically worked out prophecies of that fraudulent "expert", Anthony Falsehood, the one who's been responsible for all the hysteria by his incredible pick-a-figure-out-of-the-air "expert predictions" that he changes every day. Since the way that governments work is by relying on these "expert advisors" to guide them in all areas, I think we can now see how much faith we can put in them when it comes to anything; i.e. none at all.

[Space Commander Travis]

This is the Uk equivalent of Anthony Falsehood, Professor Neil Ferguson. Now look at his record of accuracy. Remember, Governments rely on frauds like this for their claims.

https://www.anti-empire.com/neil-ferguson-the-scientist-who-convinced-boris-johnson-of-uk-covid-lockdown-isnt-very-bright/

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Dumbledore the Awesome

[Eldorado]

5 hours ago, acidhead said:

Just curious... before I play

Do we win a prize ?

You get to share a forum with folk who'd start a pandemic sweepstake thread.

[TigerBright19]

Are the Covid-19 deaths being separated from the common cold / flu deaths which is also high?  How do they separate the two because many will contract both and they would have died even without Covid-19.  Instead of having a million elderly people with pneumonia and flu on their death certificate, the doctor may discover they tested positive for Coronavirus and mark that down as cause of death, when all they had was a mild case of Coronavirus and they died because of the health issues they already had i.e. pneumonia, flu etc.  How do national statistics separate flu deaths and Covid-19 deaths?  If they don't separate them and we end up with a silly news report saying "Cold deaths are significantly lower this year due to Coronavirus" then that will mess up the true numbers, and in decades to come the future historians will have to revise the history books just like the wartime deaths that were caused by Typhus and Spanish influenza, when in reality the people who got it, were already on death's door for something else they had.  Are all other natural causes of death being ignored or decreasing rapidly because any mild cases of Coronavirus in their body will be blamed for their death, compared to the people who genuinely died from a severe case of Covid-19.

 

How many statistics are dismissing the obvious causes, and blaming it on Covid-19.

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Aaron2017

[Raptor Witness]

There will be nations that get this right, and there will be nations that badly bungle this.

The poorest of governments have ample excuse, but the wealthiest will have none.

All these folks have is their new “Chosen One,” a pretend savior, whose endless lies helped seal his nation’s fate.

Good luck with your new self declared “savior,” who looked towards the very sky, from which the virus would come.

[Raptor Witness]

Please explain, if you forecast less than 100,000, where you got your information, or on what rationale you based your belief.

If it’s the guy who said .... 

Then you can simply say, the “Chosen One.”

[Doug1029]

On 3/31/2020 at 4:59 AM, TigerBright19 said:

Are the Covid-19 deaths being separated from the common cold / flu deaths which is also high?  How do they separate the two because many will contract both and they would have died even without Covid-19.  Instead of having a million elderly people with pneumonia and flu on their death certificate, the doctor may discover they tested positive for Coronavirus and mark that down as cause of death, when all they had was a mild case of Coronavirus and they died because of the health issues they already had i.e. pneumonia, flu etc.  How do national statistics separate flu deaths and Covid-19 deaths?  If they don't separate them and we end up with a silly news report saying "Cold deaths are significantly lower this year due to Coronavirus" then that will mess up the true numbers, and in decades to come the future historians will have to revise the history books just like the wartime deaths that were caused by Typhus and Spanish influenza, when in reality the people who got it, were already on death's door for something else they had.  Are all other natural causes of death being ignored or decreasing rapidly because any mild cases of Coronavirus in their body will be blamed for their death, compared to the people who genuinely died from a severe case of Covid-19.

 

How many statistics are dismissing the obvious causes, and blaming it on Covid-19.

 

 

 

To estimate the number of covid deaths, take the total number of deaths for any time-period this year and subtract the average number of deaths for the same time period during the last five years and you will have an approximate answer.  One can include lots of other variables in the model, but the process is much the same.  It's really not all that hard to figure out.

Doug

[TigerBright19]

1 hour ago, Doug1029 said:

To estimate the number of covid deaths, take the total number of deaths for any time-period this year and subtract the average number of deaths for the same time period during the last five years and you will have an approximate answer.  One can include lots of other variables in the model, but the process is much the same.  It's really not all that hard to figure out.

Doug

What if this year was a particularly bad year for cold and flu deaths, or there was a significant drop this year?  That would not correlate with previous year's figures and mess up the averages so that we can't say for certain if there was a huge spike in cases this year or maybe a large decrease as most of the population have been under lockdown with better hygiene control.

 

[Doug1029]

1 hour ago, TigerBright19 said:

What if this year was a particularly bad year for cold and flu deaths, or there was a significant drop this year?  That would not correlate with previous year's figures and mess up the averages so that we can't say for certain if there was a huge spike in cases this year or maybe a large decrease as most of the population have been under lockdown with better hygiene control.

 

That could happen.  That's why we like to include other variables.  Do you have any evidence that colds and flu have been any worse this year?

Nearly all covid cases have occurred this year, at least in the US.  We are expecting next year to be a bad cold/flu year.

If you want to correct for cold and flu, first build a model of cold and flu deaths from previous years, including some variable like number of days the temps were between 50 and freezing.  Use that to estimate number of cold/flu deaths, then when you have a good enough model, apply it to 2020 and 2021.  It's a basic modelling problem; scientists deal with those all the time.  You could even use the covid models.  Subtract them from total deaths and you should have an estimate of "all other."

Doug

[acidhead]

 

[Raptor Witness]

Judging from the PPE I saw last night at two grocery stores, my earlier projection here may have been too low.

I have nicknamed the local Wally World, the “Bat Roost.”

[Raptor Witness]

Quote

Raptor Witness     2,133

•  
•   #169  
•  

Posted October 23, 2019

...... Attorney General William Barr, by seeking to divide U.S. serves only one purpose. He is the opposite of Jesus Christ.  For this reason, the plagas against him and his political house shall swell like a tsunami. They will hear the rumbling of the earth, but think nothing of it, until they are swept away, and into the sea, never to be seen or heard from again. Covered with silt and sorrow, until the end of time, far and away, into the abyss.

Mater, perdat vomitu in parallel lines

Edited October 23, 2019 by Raptor Witness

•  

Mater = Mother

perdat = destroy

vomitu = vomit, sickness 

In the context here, waves move in parallel lines. “like a tsunami”

 

[Raptor Witness]

Defend

verb

1. 

resist an attack made on (someone or something); protect from harm or danger.
 

To sew doubt or confusion about mask wearing is a deliberate failure to defend the country. It’s like telling the soldier in basic training that their weapon is not their best friend.

What makes my forecast of the end of the Republican Party in October of 2019, truly remarkable, is this, totally unexpected, failure to defend.

So ask the next obvious question, how many dead Americans will it take, so that they never forget what the Republicans have done?

That’s the number that will die. The sad part is, I can’t change that number, and it’s with a heavy heart that I say this. 

My guess is, at least a million Americans will eventually die of this disease, which in the modern age, should never have happened. Especially given the explicit warnings, of not just the name of the virus, but the specific symptoms presented here in early December of 2019.

[Hankenhunter]

It's all over folks. No more epidemic according to reknown virologist Ivanka Trump.

My god, how stupid do they think you are?

https://mobile.twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

[Raptor Witness]

1 hour ago, Hankenhunter said:

It's all over folks. No more epidemic according to reknown virologist Ivanka Trump.

My god, how stupid do they think you are?

https://mobile.twitter.com/dvergano/status/1321124080448393217

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any more insane.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Raptor Witness

[+and-then]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/florida-health-official-admits-man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-coronavirus-death

 

Let's just say there's room for differing opinions about the accuracy of Fatality rates due to odd reporting standards.

[Golden Duck]

On 3/31/2020 at 7:59 PM, TigerBright19 said:

Are the Covid-19 deaths being separated from the common cold / flu deaths which is also high?  How do they separate the two because many will contract both and they would have died even without Covid-19.  Instead of having a million elderly people with pneumonia and flu on their death certificate, the doctor may discover they tested positive for Coronavirus and mark that down as cause of death, when all they had was a mild case of Coronavirus and they died because of the health issues they already had i.e. pneumonia, flu etc.  How do national statistics separate flu deaths and Covid-19 deaths?  If they don't separate them and we end up with a silly news report saying "Cold deaths are significantly lower this year due to Coronavirus" then that will mess up the true numbers, and in decades to come the future historians will have to revise the history books just like the wartime deaths that were caused by Typhus and Spanish influenza, when in reality the people who got it, were already on death's door for something else they had.  Are all other natural causes of death being ignored or decreasing rapidly because any mild cases of Coronavirus in their body will be blamed for their death, compared to the people who genuinely died from a severe case of Covid-19.

 

How many statistics are dismissing the obvious causes, and blaming it on Covid-19.

 

 

 

Provide a prognosis before catching COVID-19 for your guy on the left.