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Still Waters

Unusual ozone hole opens over the Arctic

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RoofGardener
2 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

Not the ones that understand weather versus climate...

Here you go, as Doug points out:

 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate)

Obviously climate also extends for much longer periods than that.

 

Now, you tell us, RG, in what period of time has this hole developed?  Here, let me help.. from the OP site (did you read it, at all?)
 

Anything to add?  Weeks, versus 30 years plus?  Not seeing the difference..?

Maybe drop the smarm - it looks embarrassing when you are shown to not even understand the basic terms...  Or is it the arithmetic you are having a problem with?

Stop being so sarcastic. And just because the Germans noticed it a few weeks ago, doesn't mean that it hasn't been forming over a much longer period of time. Do they check for ozone levels every month ? 

22 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

Climate is measured in thirty-year increments. 

Truly ? 

The IPCC was formed in.. what... 1994 ? Temperatures had been rising since around 1980-ish, following a 20-year reduction in temperatures (causing a minor panic in the media over a second ice age). So they only had 15 years of significant warming to analyse. Was THAT just "weather" ? I think that 30-year rule can't really be accurate ? 

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preacherman76
On 4/8/2020 at 8:40 PM, Golden Duck said:

So we'll just ignore the abnormally high temps?

It happens. Seems like once every 10-20 years we get a abnormally warm winter. I remember as a kid my Dad starting a plowing company. Just happened to fall on the one year where it only rained the whole season. 

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Doug1029
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Stop being so sarcastic. And just because the Germans noticed it a few weeks ago, doesn't mean that it hasn't been forming over a much longer period of time. Do they check for ozone levels every month ? 

Ozone levels are measured nine times daily: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/  at both poles and at five latitudes in between.

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Truly ? 

The IPCC was formed in.. what... 1994 ? Temperatures had been rising since around 1980-ish, following a 20-year reduction in temperatures (causing a minor panic in the media over a second ice age). So they only had 15 years of significant warming to analyse. Was THAT just "weather" ? I think that 30-year rule can't really be accurate ? 

Daily weather records in Oklahoma go back to July 1, 1824 (Ft. Towson), with some gaps.  We have continuous records since January 1, 1870 (Ft. Sill).  The Oklahoma City station(s) have been in continuous operation since January 1, 1892.

There are instrumental records from Upsala going back to 1722.  And there are several other European cities with records going back into the early 1800s.  We use those records to calibrate tree ring series, the oldest of which in Oklahoma goes back to 1307 (Pattons Bluff).  Next door in Arkansas (Clifty Canyon) is a chronology recovered from a log cabin dating to 1649.

Based only on instrumental records, Oklahoma has seven complete 30-year intervals.  Based on the Pattons Bluff chronology, we have temperature, precip and PDSI records for 23 complete 30-year cycles.  Other states have differing numbers, but as most started keeping records at about the same time, they are similar to Oklahoma's.

Doug

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ChrLzs

RG, a person debating in good faith would have apologised by now, given you have shown to be wrong on every count.

Clearly, you are not one of those.

 

The way to wisdom is by admitting errors.

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mdbuilder
On 4/8/2020 at 5:40 PM, Golden Duck said:

So we'll just ignore the abnormally high temps?

They are neither abnormal or within our capacity to manipulate. Archaeology uncovers proof of that on a daily basis.

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Golden Duck
18 minutes ago, mdbuilder said:

They are neither abnormal or within our capacity to manipulate. Archaeology uncovers proof of that on a daily basis.

Shorts and t-shirt weather in the Antarctic is not abnormal?

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, mdbuilder said:

They are neither abnormal or within our capacity to manipulate. Archaeology uncovers proof of that on a daily basis.

That depends on how you define "abnormal."  In climatology, "normal" is the 30-year running average.  That changes every year.  As it goes up, "normal" goes up.

The southern Great Plains (Manhattan, Kansas) are 1.6 degrees warmer than they were in 1828.  Oklahoma City is 0.7 degrees warmer than it was in 2000.  The world, as a whole is a whole degree warmer than it was in 1900.  Temps are rising.

Doug

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Doug1029
On 4/10/2020 at 10:43 AM, Doug1029 said:

Daily weather records in Oklahoma go back to July 1, 1824 (Ft. Towson), with some gaps.  We have continuous records since January 1, 1870 (Ft. Sill).  The Oklahoma City station(s) have been in continuous operation since January 1, 1892.

There are instrumental records from Upsala going back to 1722.  And there are several other European cities with records going back into the early 1800s.  We use those records to calibrate tree ring series, the oldest of which in Oklahoma goes back to 1307 (Pattons Bluff).  Next door in Arkansas (Clifty Canyon) is a chronology recovered from a log cabin dating to 1649.

Based only on instrumental records, Oklahoma has seven complete 30-year intervals.  Based on the Pattons Bluff chronology, we have temperature, precip and PDSI records for 23 complete 30-year cycles.  Other states have differing numbers, but as most started keeping records at about the same time, they are similar to Oklahoma's.

Doug

I forgot the most-interesting chronologies of all.  There are two in Europe, the European Pine Chronology and the European Oak Chronology that go back 17,000 years to the Last Glacial Maximum.  The University of Missouri is working on one for eastern North America that should go back just as far.  On the North Island of New Zealand is a swamp that is providing cores going back 60,000 years.  That chronology is still decades from completion.

The Tornatrask Chronology from northern Sweden goes back almost to the Ice Age.  The White Mountain and Methuselah Walk Chronologies go back over 8500 years.  There is a swamp on the Suwanee River in Florida from which researchers are extracting a 1000-year chronology (c. 500AD to c. 1500 AD).  Those submerged bald-cypress trunks in the Gulf of Mexico may offer a chance to build a 125,000-year chronology - a tree-ring chronology covering multiple glacial cycles!   Most are still years from completion.  It takes about 30 trunks (average age 300 years) to cover a time span adequately and you don't know which trunks are the ones you need until you bore into them, prepare a series and cross-date it.  A 300-year old trunk was recovered about a block from the National Geographic headquarters in Washington, DC.  Washington used to be a cypress swamp.

We have so many chronologies from North America that dendrochronologists have prepared a set of tables going back to 1000 AD that covers the entire country (excluding Hawaii and parts of Alaska).  All you have to do to date a piece of wood is prepare a series from it and then cross-date it against one of these tables.

Doug

 

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RoofGardener
On 4/10/2020 at 4:43 PM, Doug1029 said:

Ozone levels are measured nine times daily: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/  at both poles and at five latitudes in between.

Gosh... nine times per day ? That's impressive. 

So presumably in the German study, everything was fine at lunchtime, but by 15:00 the hole had appeared ? 

No, I didn't think so either. So what IS the chronology of this discovery ? 

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Doug1029
22 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Gosh... nine times per day ? That's impressive. 

So presumably in the German study, everything was fine at lunchtime, but by 15:00 the hole had appeared ? 

No, I didn't think so either. So what IS the chronology of this discovery ? 

While data is recorded that frequently, it may be weeks or even years before anybody takes a good look at it.  That is probably the reason for the time lag.

Doug

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Doug1029
1 hour ago, Doug1029 said:

We have so many chronologies from North America that dendrochronologists have prepared a set of tables going back to 1000 AD that covers the entire country (excluding Hawaii and parts of Alaska).  All you have to do to date a piece of wood is prepare a series from it and then cross-date it against one of these tables.

P.S.:  I have cross-dated Tornatrask against the White Mountain Chronology.  They agree back to the year 535.  Between then and about 6000 YBP, there is a six-year discrepancy with Tornatrask having the shorter chronology.  I think the difference is missing rings due to ice storms.  Maybe I'll get to test that someday.

Doug

 

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Doug1029
On 4/11/2020 at 2:34 PM, Doug1029 said:

While data is recorded that frequently, it may be weeks or even years before anybody takes a good look at it.  That is probably the reason for the time lag.

Doug

P.S.:  Data is usually recorded by automated stations that radio their information to a home computer once or twice a day.  Never touched by human hands.

Doug

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mdbuilder
On 4/11/2020 at 8:53 AM, Doug1029 said:

That depends on how you define "abnormal."  In climatology, "normal" is the 30-year running average.  That changes every year.  As it goes up, "normal" goes up.

The southern Great Plains (Manhattan, Kansas) are 1.6 degrees warmer than they were in 1828.  Oklahoma City is 0.7 degrees warmer than it was in 2000.  The world, as a whole is a whole degree warmer than it was in 1900.  Temps are rising.

Doug

So what? Earth has been warmer, it's been cooler. Mankind hasn't always been here and we'll be gone again soon [in relative terms].

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, mdbuilder said:

So what? Earth has been warmer, it's been cooler. Mankind hasn't always been here and we'll be gone again soon [in relative terms].

This is the first time that temperature rise correlates with the release of carbon into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels.  That is what is new this time.

This is the first time that climate change has been driven by human activities.

Doug

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Still Waters

Update:

Quote

That Unusually Large Ozone Hole Over The Arctic Has Closed Up Again

Earlier this year, the layer of ozone over the Arctic thinned out enough to be considered a serious sized hole. It wasn't exactly impressive compared with its southern cousin, but it was certainly a lot bigger than we'd ever seen it before.

Now, according to surveillance by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), we can breathe a sigh of relief. It's healed up again.

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-unusually-large-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-over-the-arctic-has-closed-itself-up-again

 

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spartan max2

I'm so confused.

How does that happen in the matter of weeks?

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mdbuilder
On 4/28/2020 at 9:10 AM, Doug1029 said:

This is the first time that temperature rise correlates with the release of carbon into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels.  That is what is new this time.

This is the first time that climate change has been driven by human activities.

Doug

That is pathetic. Associating recurring natural cosmic cycles with the relatively recent arrival of man epitomizes their self-centered self-importance.

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