What would economic collapse look like?

[+and-then]

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-economy-collapse-what-will-happen-how-to-prepare-3305690

This is a topic I'd like to explore rationally rather than making it overly political.  Some politics can't be escaped but I'm interested in learning what members think can be done by government to take the place of economic activity.  Who would expect the governments of the world to take on the role of feeding and housing and providing healthcare to millions who are not working because of a global collapse/depression?  If they can't what would the world look like in such dire circumstances?

[Vorg]

I think people can handle a lot. However when food starts to run low look for civil unrest, riots, and utter pandemonium in some areas. We see what happens in some cities when the power goes out. Now imagine that with a lack of food, jobs, and hope. I could go on, but I think what I have written is mild when lawlessness is thrown into the fray also.

[+and-then]

My concern is that our media is so focused on removing this president that they will do everything they can to frighten people into staying home even when Trump tries to get the economy to restart.  Leaving aside the obvious tactic they will use of blaming him for every death that happens after the restart, they will try to scare people into staying home in spite of businesses needing to go back to work.  Those are my opinions based on what we've seen from the Left so far.

That aside, I'm interested more in the opinions of members on what repercussions we could see if the economy crashed FOR ANY REASON.  I'm interested in what people believe about this situation.

[drakonwick]

A total collapse in the economy would be, Chaos. All I can say is start counting the death toll! 

[+and-then]

3 minutes ago, drakonwick said:

A total collapse in the economy would be, Chaos. All I can say is start counting the death toll! 

I agree and it makes me wonder how far our governments, all world governments, are willing to go during this crisis to spend money we don't have.  Our government is talking about a 4th payout in trillion plus dollar amounts.  We will have raised the U.S. debt to nearly 30 Trillion dollars.  At some point, no one will take the dollar seriously.  What then?  Collapse would be inevitable, wouldn't it?

[drakonwick]

17 minutes ago, and then said:

I agree and it makes me wonder how far our governments, all world governments, are willing to go during this crisis to spend money we don't have.  Our government is talking about a 4th payout in trillion plus dollar amounts.  We will have raised the U.S. debt to nearly 30 Trillion dollars.  At some point, no one will take the dollar seriously.  What then?  Collapse would be inevitable, wouldn't it?

All I can say, is don't expect, The Government to save you. 

[Tatetopa]

Good topic.

Our grandparents and some of our parents lived through the Great Depression.  They had it pretty tough. though I didn't hear any stories about people starving.  Of course the economy and society have changed in the last 90 years.  We might be a lot less resilient and a lot more vulnerable.

Whatever happens, it is going to change society.

The bailout money seems too much to me and not well targeted, but what do I know? 

After 9/11 airlines did not recover for nearly 2 years.  The company I was working for was making  (and still does) titanium and stainless steel components for gas turbine engines and airframes.  Airlines did not get a bailout and neither did we or anybody else in the industry..  Inefficient companies died. Some airlines went away, we laid off about a quarter of our workforce.  The airlines that survived got smarter and stronger as did we.   We all became more efficient.  There was a burst of creativity focused on cost cutting and efficiency.  Many of the improvements to engine fuel efficiency and airframe lightening took hold around this time.  Carbon fiber components, new ceramic-metal composites, and redesigned engines lowered cost per passenger mile.

What do you think will happen to cruise lines?  Will a cruise be a senior's dream next year or for the next decade?  Let them fail. If it is any consolation, most of them are registered in other countries and don't have majority American crews.

Let the failures happen.  Businesses that spent all of their tax windfalls on stock buybacks and executive bonuses will wish they had put some away for a rainy day. Let them fail and new more efficient competitors will take their place.

We need that.  If we want to bring manufacturing back to the US, we will need more efficient manufacturing.   That means more automation, less jobs, more production, higher quality products.  If we want to stay competitive in the world, it needs to happen.

There may be more people working from home in the future. That saves office space for the company and transportation time and cost for employees that can do it.  Obviously, not everybody can, but a larger percentage may.

My wife is an office manager for a construction company.  The office staff has been working from home, the boss decided he likes it.  Cameras are being installed on all company computers and probably my wife's at home. Billings, checks, contracts are all being handled from the homes of four persons.  The five project managers come into the office a few times a week to update job progress and order materials on their computers.  People are finding they don't need to congregate in an office for business reasons.

We are still a consumer driven society, and we have had a lot of extra money floating around to support all of those service employees.   For that reason as well as the above, I think it makes more sense to trickle up than down.  But for heaven's sake bring back some manufacturing capacity in all areas, high tech, heavy mfg., consumer products, and pharmaceuticals.  Give consumers money to keep the economy going. 

Do some of that  with infrastructure projects.  Do some with the bailout money we are giving to farmers who lost the China market, redirect the food to the USA.  Do some with government purchases.  We will need masks and PPE and respirators for the next pandemic. If that is not enough, expand unemployment and health insurance.  Some people will need something for the next months or year.  Face it, some jobs will never come back, many will change.

Feed people, keep them healthy, let them tighten their belts a little, teach them what they need to be employable in new industries. .  Let inefficient companies and industries die so new ones can take their place.  Doesn't mean it will be easy, but no need to  despair or riot.

 

 

 

[Jodie.Lynne]

A great topic.

I see one flaw in the scenario though: If society collapses, why would you think governments would survive intact enough, to care for anyone?

 

Years ago, I read a report that stated that major cities were about 2 weeks from starvation, due to the need to have food trucked/railed in to supply the stores. Imagine for a moment, that those supplies stopped coming in.

 

We've seen idiots in the US hoarding toilet paper; imagine the riots if they were fighting over the last shipment of Hot Pockets....

 

And I am NOT being facetious or humourous here.

[+and-then]

13 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Feed people, keep them healthy,

How would you accomplish this?  What measures?  I agree that the rebuilding after a crash would need to be done intelligently but I'm talking about the consequences of the collapse and its immediate repercussions in societies.  From what I can glean, the dollar would fall and most other currencies would follow.  Businesses would close and even the provision for shipping food and medicine wouldn't survive.

All I can foresee would be a government/military takeover of those functions for some unknown period of time.  Think about how inefficient that would be and how fear would cause populations to behave.

[Jodie.Lynne]

16 minutes ago, and then said:

All I can foresee would be a government/military takeover of those functions for some unknown period of time.  Think about how inefficient that would be and how fear would cause populations to behave.

I agree with this. We would see small little city states/fiefdoms popping up, where the powerful can hold sway over the rest of the people in the immediate area.

If we accept the concept of a total economic collapse, where the state/national currency is worthless, there is no way that a distant federal government ( or even a state government) would be able to maintain stability or control.

Also, think of how many types of businesses or industries would disappear.

[SHaYap]

To quote :

Quote

When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money.

• As quoted in "Conversations with North American Indians" by Ted Poole in Who is the Chairman of This Meeting? : A Collection of Essays (1972) edited by Ralph Osborne, p. 43. In the article "When the Last Tree Is Cut Down, the Last Fish Eaten, and the Last Stream Poisoned, You Will Realize That You Cannot Eat Money"

~

wikiquote LINK

~

[XenoFish]

I'd just find somewhere to hide. Hopefully wait it out until the fires burn out and the gunshots stop.

[Tatetopa]

3 hours ago, and then said:

How would you accomplish this?  What measures?  I agree that the rebuilding after a crash would need to be done intelligently but I'm talking about the consequences of the collapse and its immediate repercussions in societies.  From what I can glean, the dollar would fall and most other currencies would follow.  Businesses would close and even the provision for shipping food and medicine wouldn't survive.

All I can foresee would be a government/military takeover of those functions for some unknown period of time.  Think about how inefficient that would be and how fear would cause populations to behave.

Maybe andthen, but it certainly seems like the worst case scenario.  We don't seem close  anywhere in the world to total economic collapse.  Are we looking for Hunger Games scenarios?  The national government did not collapse in 1929, although more than half the banks failed.  Since then, we  have put a few measures in place to mitigate that.  We buy food from farmers and distribute it through commodities, food banks charities, and food stamps.  We stop paying farmers not to plant crops.  We use the $17 billion dollars we have already scheduled to support farmers stock pile or distribute that food.   We are talking about billions of dollars here not trillions.

In the 1929-1937 Great Depression, about 15 million people out of a population of 121 million were out of work, 12% or so.   Right now we might have 20 million out of a population of 300+ million. less than 7%.

Here is an article from the History channel site.

https://www.history.com/news/life-for-the-average-family-during-the-great-depression  Even crime was not as bad as Bonnie and Clyde would lead you to believe.

Violent crimes initially spiked during the first few years of the Great Depression, but nationwide, rates of homicides and violent crimes began to fall sharply between 1934 and 1937.

No denying we will be in for some hard times, but things do not have to fall apart.  Are you getting Fedex, UPS, Amazon, and PO deliveries?  Those organizations are still operational.  Amazon may be at the center of perfect circumstances.  They may become the largest corporation in the US and maybe the world.  Farmers and grocery stores are still working.  Essential functions are still happening.  Nail salons, barber shops, and specialty shops are closed and proprietors and employees are part of that 7% not working.   When social distancing is relaxed, a lot of those could come back quickly.  Some people always have and always will  live paycheck to paycheck and are facing dire situations, hunger, no power or phone, eviction. Social nets are helpful for those folks.

Many folks are still working or have alternative incomes.  Most of them would like nothing more than to go out to restaurants get haircuts and maybe acrylic nails a pedicure or whatever.  Are you still working?  My wife is, I am not.  We are still spending money every month, but our entertainment and eating expenses have gone down a lot.

Life will change, progress will happen.  A lot of businesses will not come back.  New opportunities will appear and new businesses will spring up.  GDP will be down this year no doubt.

I suppose we could get to that dystopian, civil war, armed milita groups stealing food, women, and toilet paper  situation if enough people want it.

 

[Grim Reaper 6]

15 minutes ago, XenoFish said:

I'd just find somewhere to hide. Hopefully wait it out until the fires burn out and the gunshots stop.

Once what your describing starts, I doubt the gunshots will ever stop. At that point the strong will survive and the weak had better not come out of hiding because the world we once knew will over.

Peace

[XenoFish]

17 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Once what your describing starts, I doubt the gunshots will ever stop. At that point the strong will survive and the weak had better not come out of hiding because the world we once knew will over.

Peace

I can't help but think some people want that.

[+and-then]

57 minutes ago, third_eye said:

To quote :

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wikiquote LINK

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All of life is a balancing act.  Often, dire choices have to be made.  They should at least be made from facts and not media-induced panic.

[+and-then]

47 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

I suppose we could get to that dystopian, civil war, armed milita groups stealing food, women, and toilet paper  situation if enough people want it.

Wanting it won't matter at all.  What I'm speaking of is a potential global economic collapse.  When trust in fiat currency disappears due to the overall profligacy of government "printing", we will be faced with a breakdown of social order.  A true situation of a world without law.  The dystopia will be a side effect, not a granted desire of the populations around the globe.  The most profound difference between the world population in '29 and that population today is that right across the globe we are seeing media that are pushing anger, distrust and division at all levels of society.  Whether one believes that or denies it, the outcome of even a short term grid down scenario will be far more deadly than Sars-Cov-2.

 

[SHaYap]

31 minutes ago, and then said:

All of life is a balancing act.  Often, dire choices have to be made.  They should at least be made from facts and not media-induced panic.

Panic.... Why should you panic? 

You've got enough magic bullets to reach hell and back, if you can't, your beliefs will... and can 

~

In his own "words"

Quote

[00.29:22]

~

Or as Matthew was said to have said... 

Quote

https://www.biblegateway.com › ...

 

Matthew 6:5-6 NIV - Prayer - “And when you pray, do not - Bible Gateway

Matthew 6:5-6 New International Version (NIV). Prayer. ⁵ “And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to ...

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[+and-then]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-trump-declared-major-disaster-in-all-50-states-first-time-history

This declaration opens the gates for all 50 states to request Federal loan guarantees  or grants.  ALL FIFTY STATES... all at the same time, in addition to the 6 trillion that has already been made available.  When the U.S.dollar is seen to be no more valuable than Monopoly money, then what?  

[+and-then]

24 minutes ago, third_eye said:

Panic.... Why should you panic?

I don't recall saying I have.  Far from it, in fact.  I'm referring to the state of mind in the general population when we see hyperinflation or an outright collapse.  Apparently you think it impossible or humorous.  The purpose of this thread is to explore the possibility of such a collapse and what that would look like as a hypothetical.  

[SHaYap]

2 minutes ago, and then said:

I don't recall saying I have.  Far from it, in fact.  I'm referring to the state of mind in the general population when we see hyperinflation or an outright collapse.  Apparently you think it impossible or humorous.  The purpose of this thread is to explore the possibility of such a collapse and what that would look like as a hypothetical.  

Didn't know you cared... 

~

[Tatetopa]

6 minutes ago, and then said:

Wanting it won't matter at all.  What I'm speaking of is a potential global economic collapse.  When trust in fiat currency disappears due to the overall profligacy of government "printing", we will be faced with a breakdown of social order.  A true situation of a world without law.  The dystopia will be a side effect, not a granted desire of the populations around the globe.  The most profound difference between the world population in '29 and that population today is that right across the globe we are seeing media that are pushing anger, distrust and division at all levels of society.  Whether one believes that or denies it, the outcome of even a short term grid down scenario will be far more deadly than Sars-Cov-2.

i misread your original premise. I thought it referred to how bad things will likely get after coronavirus and how we will recover.  I was not playing your game.

 

OK  Total economic collapse:  .  The elite and those they favor or need will sequester themselves and  survive.   (just like Ayn Rand foresaw) Since they will be globalists and atheists, they will target all religions, with propaganda on FOX and CNN while they are still on the air. Israel will be attacked and start a nuclear conflict in the Middle East.  Few of the big three religion followers will survive .  

After 100 years, Earth will be paradise for the survivors.  Greta Thunberg and Al Gore will be venerated and statues raised to them,  Scandinavia and Japan will be the high tech  solar and wind powered centers of the new civilized world.   The former US will be a lawless wasteland with armed militas fighting each other for food, women, and toilet paper. 

In another hundred years,  sister ships the "Norway" and the "MInimoto" will leave the asteroid mining colonies to explore the outer planets and Oort cloud and establish a far base for the first interstellar flights. Orbital platforms Stockholm, Nara, and Reykjavik will keep peace and disperse terrorist groups.

Indians, who have been thriving as survivalist rangers and gamekeepers will finally have the Eastern forests back in productive shape.  In addition to buffalo, with outside genetic help from the high tech centers, they will be seeding the lush grass prairies of the Midwest with giant bison, horses, camels, mammoths, ground sloths, dire wolves, cave lions, saber tooth cats and short faced bears. Young men seeking adventure will be practicing their hunting skills with lance and bow from horseback. 

Scholars will be studying the Constitution and Declaration of Independence and wondering exactly what went wrong and why our society was so fragile with such a firm foundation. 

Nobody else will miss us much.

[SHaYap]

... needs more dragons, and bunnies... 

~

[Tatetopa]

I apologize andthen.  I have been a dick about this topic and not taking it seriously. Here is my worst nature that I try to deny and hide from myself.

Yes, we are being schooled to be divided, distrustful, and hate each other.  The media seeds from both sides fall on fertile ground.  We hear what we are hungry for and believe the worst.  The hate is in our hearts and it will destroy us.  We will bring doom down upon ourselves.  My anger and hate tell me how easily this could happen.

 

 

 

[+and-then]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-pandemic-famines-united-nations

For those who haven't considered the far reaching effects of economic shutdowns...