Obamagate important or another diversion

[+joc]

8 hours ago, Piney said:

Democraps, Repooplicans..... they're all lying turds.....

[Horta]

Thought I would post this for the "it's just the flu" proponents. Something to think about at least. It's an unrealistic comparison.

The flu numbers are not actual numbers, they are estimates based on actual reported numbers multiplied by various coefficients and produced by algorithms. 

For example, the actual reported number of flu deaths in the US for the lasts six years ranges from 3,448 to 15,620 deaths per year. In comparison the actual reported number of deaths from COVID-19 since Feb 29th this year is 85,216 so far (and counting).

It's explained in the link below by an emergency physician.

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges. The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

[+and-then]

3 minutes ago, Horta said:

Thought I would post this for the "it's just the flu" proponents. Something to think about at least. It's an unrealistic comparison.

The flu numbers are not actual numbers, they are estimates based on actual reported numbers multiplied by various coefficients and produced by algorithms. 

For example, the actual reported number of flu deaths in the US for the lasts six years ranges from 3,448 to 15,620 deaths per year. In comparison the actual reported number of deaths from COVID-19 since Feb 29th this year is 85,216 so far (and counting).

It's explained in the link below by an emergency physician.

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges. The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

Comparing Sars-Cov-2 to influenza is something average folks do because they have no other context for this virus.  Anyone that looks at the numbers of dead and the period of time we've been dealing with this will easily see that Covid19 is more lethal.  We seem to be learning new and more disturbing things about this virus every day.  Fauci mentioned a hard reality that many in the media don't seem to want to cover and that is that there is no guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming at all or that it will be a one and done.  It's more likely that Covid19 will become endemic in the global population and that it will resurface as often as the various types of flu.

This is all the more reason for Americans to begin finding a way to reopen our economy while keeping as many at risk citizens as possible protected from the virus.  I am somewhat concerned that Dr. Birx has lost faith in the CDC death rate numbers as being inflated.  There needs to be a uniform protocol for reporting those who die OF covid19 vs those who die WITH covid 19.  Of all topics to have sketchy information being disseminated, this virus may be the worst choice.  People have a right to the true numbers.

[Horta]

1 minute ago, and then said:

Comparing Sars-Cov-2 to influenza is something average folks do because they have no other context for this virus.  Anyone that looks at the numbers of dead and the period of time we've been dealing with this will easily see that Covid19 is more lethal. 

Quite true, yet unrealistic comparison with the flu continues. 

[Horta]

7 minutes ago, and then said:

 Fauci mentioned a hard reality that many in the media don't seem to want to cover and that is that there is no guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming at all or that it will be a one and done.  It's more likely that Covid19 will become endemic in the global population and that it will resurface as often as the various types of flu.

True, afaik no effective vaccine has ever been produced for a Coronavirus. It's already many times more deadlier than the flu, but chances are that as it mutates it will become less deadly. Then again there's always the less likely chance that it will become far worse in it's effects.

[+and-then]

53 minutes ago, Horta said:

Then again there's always the less likely chance that it will become far worse in it's effects

That seems to be the consensus for the second wave of the 1918 Influenza    This kind of reality is also why I hope the world can get together and force the CCP's hand on tightening their wet markets.  It's just a matter of time before one of those Petri dishes births something we can't even imagine.  The one reality that I think has been proven with this one is that ALL NATIONS tend to be very hesitant to risk panicking markets and causing serious damage to economies.  There's no reason to believe the next one will be treated any differently  

[zep73]

11 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

Looks like a quote to me.

True. It was from Led Zeppelin's The Battle of Evermore.

Edited May 14, 2020 by sci-nerd

[+Hammerclaw]

5 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

That's pretty obvious, but facts based upon your own assumptions are not facts at all, they are just your opinion.

Peace

Which is all you have to offer, as well. Don't get so high on yourself.

[Horta]

39 minutes ago, and then said:

That seems to be the consensus for the second wave of the 1918 Influenza    This kind of reality is also why I hope the world can get together and force the CCP's hand on tightening their wet markets.  It's just a matter of time before one of those Petri dishes births something we can't even imagine.  The one reality that I think has been proven with this one is that ALL NATIONS tend to be very hesitant to risk panicking markets and causing serious damage to economies.  There's no reason to believe the next one will be treated any differently  

There are "wet markets" all through Asia though and closing them all down probably won't happen. There is also the "bush meat" trade in other parts of the world that won't stop because they are an important source of nutrition for some populations. Not to mention some extremely deadly viruses that have already been circulating for years though thankfully have low rate of transmission (at this stage). Even then, the most deadly pandemic in modern history (1918 flu) might have started in Kansas, before being spread by troops.

Most virologists seem to think the real problem is that human encroachment is forcing species into smaller areas where they have all sorts of interactions (including with humans) that they normally wouldn't have. Climatic conditions changing species range are predicted to make this worse. Also the mass production farming methods that are required to feed almost 8 billion people can be problematic.

It's going to take a real effort to either form an international organisation dedicated solely to this task, or restructure and beef up the WHO with resources and give it far wider scope than it now has. Wealthier countries are going to take on most of the burden of doing this, but it will be in their own interest. Health systems in some poorer countries (and some wealthier ones) will also need to be looked at if pandemic response is the aim. There is also the problem of having enough medical equipment, the current pandemic highlights the problems with our "just in time" supply system and centralised production.

These problems could all be met, the problem will be whether the bean counters and politicians that are running the place have the will.

[Tatetopa]

8 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

Yeah, with China next door, it makes sense. If it had been the Vancouver Virus, instead, we might have been quicker on the draw, too.

We beat South Korea to a shutdown by 4 days, aren't they the next door neighbors?

Italy was a few hours ahead of us.

But really, what is a few hours?  Not so much I don't think.  It is just a slight burnishing of the facts to say you are number one when you are not, and everybody opposed the move when other countries and airlines themselves were already shutting down. 

[Grim Reaper 6]

4 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

Which is all you have to offer, as well. Don't get so high on yourself.

Thanks for your thoughts here, but we both know that isn't fair or true.

Peace

Edited May 14, 2020 by Manwon Lender

[Grim Reaper 6]

7 hours ago, and then said:

That seems to be the consensus for the second wave of the 1918 Influenza    This kind of reality is also why I hope the world can get together and force the CCP's hand on tightening their wet markets.  It's just a matter of time before one of those Petri dishes births something we can't even imagine.  The one reality that I think has been proven with this one is that ALL NATIONS tend to be very hesitant to risk panicking markets and causing serious damage to economies.  There's no reason to believe the next one will be treated any differently  

Every country in Asia has wet markets, it would be a very difficult if not an impossible task to accomplish. But, the real problem is that this Virus may not have started in a wet market in the first place the earliest known case of this Virus 17 November 2019, was 55 year old man from Hubei Provence who had no contact with the Wet Market in question or any other any other wet market. According to the available information the facts do not identify this individual as being patient zero, so it appears that the virus may have been spreading as early as late October or the beginning of November.

This would account for the explosion of cases that occurred in China in January, and for the infections that began showing up in other countries also during January. While everyone associates the beginning of this crisis with December 2019, its important to remember December was when the first reports that Novel Coronavirus was causing infections in China, but in reality the Virus was all ready spreading across Hubei Provence and into the City of Wuhan.

So when this is taken into account it changes the entire picture of what we have believed to have occurred. What I don't understand is why this information has not been reported in greater detail and by many media outlets, this information was first reported 13 March 2020 and all I can say is, it appears to have been over looked in the swirl of other information that clogging all news outlets at that time or because it did not fit the narrative of what was being reported. 

Here are links that report the first case occurring in 17 November 2020/

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Peace

Edited May 14, 2020 by Manwon Lender

[+joc]

8 hours ago, and then said:

This is all the more reason for Americans to begin finding a way to reopen our economy while keeping as many at risk citizens as possible protected from the virus.

Keep  your eyes on the Texas numbers...especially the Dallas numbers...Still alot of people wearing masks but the traffic is way up...both on the road and businesses open.  Sure doesn't look like Christmas Day anymore!

[Grim Reaper 6]

9 hours ago, and then said:

Comparing Sars-Cov-2 to influenza is something average folks do because they have no other context for this virus.  Anyone that looks at the numbers of dead and the period of time we've been dealing with this will easily see that Covid19 is more lethal.  We seem to be learning new and more disturbing things about this virus every day.  Fauci mentioned a hard reality that many in the media don't seem to want to cover and that is that there is no guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming at all or that it will be a one and done.  It's more likely that Covid19 will become endemic in the global population and that it will resurface as often as the various types of flu.

This is all the more reason for Americans to begin finding a way to reopen our economy while keeping as many at risk citizens as possible protected from the virus.  I am somewhat concerned that Dr. Birx has lost faith in the CDC death rate numbers as being inflated.  There needs to be a uniform protocol for reporting those who die OF covid19 vs those who die WITH covid 19.  Of all topics to have sketchy information being disseminated, this virus may be the worst choice.  People have a right to the true numbers.

I believe the fact that Dr. Birx has made these statements concerning the CDC because of White House narratives that they are using to deflect responsibility. Like I said in a previous post, when this is over and the real facts emerge her credibility is going to be ruined. Why she is willing to do this I have no idea, maybe she likes the notoriety she is receiving or maybe it is something else. But her academic back ground in this area of research doesn't allow for her actions to have been a mistake, she is pointing fingers and down playing the situation intentionally.

Peace

Edited May 14, 2020 by Manwon Lender

[Tatetopa]

25 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

believe the fact that Dr. Birx has made these statements concerning the CDC is nothing but one of the White House narratives that they are using to deflect responsibility. Like I said in a previous post, when this is over and the real facts emerge her credibility is going to be ruined. Why she is willing to do this I have no idea, maybe she likes the notoriety she is receiving or maybe it is something else. But her academic back ground in this area of research doesn't allow for her actions to have been a mistake, she is pointing fingers and down playing the situation intentionally.

Peace

Maybe Dr. Birx believes she can mitigate the situation and her advice might steer things a bit if she is still listened to now.

Birx and Fauci and the others are not policy setters. As much as FOX rails against them, they are not Deciders.  They give facts and their best opinion of the facts.  That is all.  FOX doesn't seem to want facts.

Economists present their own economic facts and opinions in their field of expertise.  Opinions and facts also based on models.

Political advisors give their opinions on the best way to get re-elected.

As George Bush once said, the President is the Decider.  Donald Trump has to make the decision, he can listen to all and weigh facts or listen to nobody but his gut.

Either way, Donald Trump is responsible for what has happened since February and will happen to the economy and how many more citizens will die.  He will set the balance of those things, not Birx, not Fauci, not China, but Donald Trump.  Whether he tries to cast the blame on somebody else or not,  he is responsible for the US response.

The President has already limited our options as a country.  Because of his support for opening up right now and disrespecting governor's efforts coupled with his disdain for masks, he has primed his loyal followers to spread the disease and disrespect all of their fellow citizens who at least try not to infect other people by wearing masks and keeping distance.  They are attacking and cursing and infecting the essential workers and employees of businesses trying to reopen.  How is that going to improve our situation?

 

[+and-then]

7 hours ago, Horta said:

Even then, the most deadly pandemic in modern history (1918 flu) might have started in Kansas, before being spread by troops.

Camp Funston in Kansas, that seemed to be the point of origin.  I certainly don't deny that zoonotic "jumps" can occur in many places, I simply point to the last couple of these viruses originating in China. 

 

18 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

he is responsible for the US response.

In the sense that PotUS is where the buck stops, yes.  But it's false to say he's controlling the response by micromanaging the state by state choices being made by governors.  Some states are probably going to perform better than others and I think that we'll have an idea of just how the reopening is going to play out.  Georgia is into its 3rd week since it began reopening and their current cases are the lowest since this began.  Like my state, Georgia is very rural with the exception of Atlanta.  NY, Illinois, Massachusetts and a few others with high population density may well have to wait longer but the INESCAPABLE fact of life with this virus is that it's going nowhere.  It's here to stay in one form or another and an effective vaccine is probably a longshot.  

We can experiment with variations across the 50 states and when we find the most effective system we can urge governors to implement it across all the states.  Neither Trump nor anyone else has said reopening isn't going to be risky.  Adults tend to think in terms of cost/benefit equations.  If this economy falls down, covid 19 will be the least of our worries.  The flip side of your coin of "he is responsible for the U.S. response" is that the economies in the states that go back to work may well begin to boom again and make the blue state governors look like they're politically motivated.  That isn't going over well with their citizens    

[Tatetopa]

12 minutes ago, and then said:

The flip side of your coin of "he is responsible for the U.S. response" is that the economies in the states that go back to work may well begin to boom again and make the blue state governors look like they're politically motivated.  That isn't going over well with their citizens

That is also true.

Instead of micromanaging states which as you say he did not do we could have some overarching nationwide policy.  We will never know, but if he had not been such an a**hat over wearing masks, opening up without a large reinfection might have been easier.

 

[Grim Reaper 6]

17 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Maybe Dr. Birx believes she can mitigate the situation and her advice might steer things a bit if she is still listened to now.

Birx and Fauci and the others are not policy setters. As much as FOX rails against them, they are not Deciders.  They give facts and their best opinion of the facts.  That is all.  FOX doesn't seem to want facts.

Economists present their own economic facts and opinions in their field of expertise.  Opinions and facts also based on models.

Political advisors give their opinions on the best way to get re-elected.

As George Bush once said, the President is the Decider.  Donald Trump has to make the decision, he can listen to all and weigh facts or listen to nobody but his gut.

Either way, Donald Trump is responsible for what has happened since February and will happen to the economy and how many more citizens will die.  He will set the balance of those things, not Birx, not Fauci, not China, but Donald Trump.  Whether he tries to cast the blame on somebody else or not,  he is responsible for the US response.

The President has already limited our options as a country.  Because of his support for opening up right now and disrespecting governor's efforts coupled with his disdain for masks, he has primed his loyal followers to spread the disease and disrespect all of their fellow citizens who at least try not to infect other people by wearing masks and keeping distance.  They are attacking and cursing and infecting the essential workers and employees of businesses trying to reopen.  How is that going to improve our situation?

 

I agree with your assessment of the situation here. However, my biggest problem with reopening the Country is that the current plan being used is not based upon the medical advise of our Nations best and brightest Medical Personnel. These plans are solely based upon The Presidents ideas on how things should proceed, and he is not qualified to make those decisions on his own without also incorporating the knowledge of his medical personnel. I applaud those Dr. Doctors that are standing up and not supporting President Trumps agenda, I do not have any respect for those doctors like Dr. Birx who are willing to bend the facts to support the Presidents agenda. While I do agree that no matter what happens the President is fully responsible, he will only take responsibility if the results are positive, this is why he has placed the responsibility for reopening on the Governors, so that he can blame them if things turn out badly.    

I also agree that his distain for wearing masks does certainly effect how his followers will respond publicly and like you said he has primed his followers to follow his lead and also not wear masks which will spread this disease and that is  disrespect to all of their fellow citizens who are not trying to spread this infection to others, Again like you said, this will not improve our situation at all, in fact it could easily lead to the failure of the reopening of America. Last I also do understand how important it is to get our Nations economy up and running again like Andthen and others have said we must get thing moving again or we could face very serious consequences if nothing is done.

Peace 

[Grim Reaper 6]

You really have to love this article, where Dr Birx praises President Trump for being attentive to scientific literature and details. According to her  and I quote " He’s been so attentive to the scientific literature and the details and the data,  Birx said. “I think his ability to analyze and integrate data that comes out of his long history in business has really been a real benefit during these discussions about medical issues.” Oh my god, I can't believe she could say something like this after all the comments he has made, like using household disinfectants to possibly clean out the human body!! 

Here is link that goes into much more detail about this exchange.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/27/21197074/deborah-birx-praised-trump-scientific-literature-coronavirus

Peace

 

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 5/14/2020 at 11:11 AM, 19_Kilo said:

Not to nitpick, but I think you mixed up the terms sociopaths and psychopath.

Although the two are sometimes used synonymously,  most psychologists and psychiatrists describe socios as being much more in touch with reality with the ability to excel sometimes in the corporate and political world. Even in the military. They're just sublime manipulators who don't really feel empathy but are often good at pretending they do.

They know the difference between right and wrong. But they simply feel they're above the rules.

Psychopaths live in fantasy. And often have no concept of right and wrong. Sociopaths build castles in the sky. Psychopaths live in them.

OJ Simpson = sociopath.

Ed Gein, Richard Ramirez (Night Stalker) = psychopaths.

Just my two cents.

https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Sociopath_Next_Door.html?id=K9Xl3M-PpZIC&source=kp_book_description

I think you comments describe President trump exactly I have bolded your comments above, there is doubt that he shows those traits no matter how hard he tries to hide it, and he does that very poorly.

Peace

Edited May 15, 2020 by Manwon Lender

[simplybill]

In my opinion, Pres. Trump made the correct choice by allowing the State governors to shape their own response to C-19. Some states dropped the ball, but the majority have done well. Considering the vast difference in population densities, there was never any reason to force every state to adhere to the same strict rules. In my sparsely-populated state of Iowa, for example, the C-19 death rate is 9 per 100,000.

The problem for the Democrats is that their most likely replacement for Joe Biden, Governor Andrew Cuomo, has taken the lead for worst performance in the C-19 response. As of yesterday, New York’s death rate stands at 140 deaths per 100,000. Mr. Cuomo has been governor of New York for nine years, more than enough time to prepare his state for a pandemic.

Compare his track record to the governor of California, Gavin Newsom:  Mr. Newsom has been governor of his state for a mere 16 months, yet the C-19 death rate in California, the most-populated state in the US, is only 7 per 100,000.

Mr. Newsom obviously would be a much better choice for a Presidential candidate than Mr. Cuomo, however he likely lost any chance of being considered when he publicly praised President Trump for working well with California during the C-19 crisis.

Mr. Cuomo made a serious mistake by forcing nursing homes to accept C-19-infected patients. By doing so, the Democrats now will have to save face by blaming Pres. Trump for not stepping in and taking control. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

[Grim Reaper 6]

2 minutes ago, simplybill said:

In my opinion, Pres. Trump made the correct choice by allowing the State governors to shape their own response to C-19. Some states dropped the ball, but the majority have done well. Considering the vast difference in population densities, there was never any reason to force every state to adhere to the same strict rules. In my sparsely-populated state of Iowa, for example, the C-19 death rate is 9 per 100,000.

The problem for the Democrats is that their most likely replacement for Joe Biden, Governor Andrew Cuomo, has taken the lead for worst performance in the C-19 response. As of yesterday, New York’s death rate stands at 140 deaths per 100,000. Mr. Cuomo has been governor of New York for nine years, more than enough time to prepare his state for a pandemic.

Compare his track record to the governor of California, Gavin Newsom:  Mr. Newsom has been governor of his state for a mere 16 months, yet the C-19 death rate in California, the most-populated state in the US, is only 7 per 100,000.

Mr. Newsom obviously would be a much better choice for a Presidential candidate than Mr. Cuomo, however he likely lost any chance of being considered when he publicly praised President Trump for working well with California during the C-19 crisis.

Mr. Cuomo made a serious mistake by forcing nursing homes to accept C-19-infected patients. By doing so, the Democrats now will have to save face by blaming Pres. Trump for not stepping in and taking control. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Hey Bill, thanks for your post, we will soon see if you are right concerning allowing the States to take charge without any Federal Guidance. In reality there is nothing else to do anyway, especially since the Federal Government and the Trump Administration don't have a plan anyway. I agree that some states are doing ok, but on the average that's not the case and with each state doing their own thing without a National plan things can go bad and very quickly. I personally do not have any interest in the Politics of this situation. I am a Republican and have never voted any other way until 2016, which was the first year in life that I didn't vote, because I will never vote for the best of two evils and in my opinion that's what my choices were. I have not liked Donald trump for more than 30 years, so the fact that he is now the President has no influence on my comments or my thoughts politically. My comments are based upon his actions since he became President and on his actions from then until this very day.

I realize that many of the State Governor's have made some serious mistakes since this situation began, but it has also been obvious that when the places that were hit the hardest asked for help, only limited Federal support was given and it was to little far to late. This caused the death rates in those locations to sky rocket, and many of those deaths were needless. I blame this on the Federal government, I mean look at Jerid Kushners comments concerning the Nation Stock Pile, which he made publicly which I quote " The National Stock Pile is not for the States it is the Federal Government " this came from the man who is responsible for the stock pile, and it shows he has no concept of what those supplies are really for.

Peace Bill

[Grim Reaper 6]

@simplybill Bill the way I see things is that if we all are agreeing on a subject everyone has stopped thinking. We must look at both sides of the coin, and remain open minded. This is how we learn and gain new information, I wish others would understand this, and be more open to anothers ideas. It is frustrating when people become angry because you do think like they do and in these situation no one gains anything from the exchange of thoughts, it ends up just being a waste of time.

Peace 

[simplybill]

21 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

@simplybill Bill the way I see things is that if we all are agreeing on a subject everyone has stopped thinking. We must look at both sides of the coin, and remain open minded. This is how we learn and gain new information, I wish others would understand this, and be more open to anothers ideas. It is frustrating when people become angry because you do think like they do and in these situation no one gains anything from the exchange of thoughts, it ends up just being a waste of time.

Peace 

I agree! 

We have a great group of people here on UM, don’t we? Saru (and his faithful moderators) has made this the best discussion website on the Internet. 

[Tatetopa]

4 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

I agree with your assessment of the situation here. However, my biggest problem with reopening the Country is that the current plan being used is not based upon the medical advise of our Nations best and brightest Medical Personnel. These plans are solely based upon The Presidents ideas on how things should proceed, and he is not qualified to make those decisions on his own without also incorporating the knowledge of his medical personnel.

That would be nice, but there is nothing that says the President has to be concerned about the health of citizens.  If he decides that he doesn't care how many die because he believes opening the economy will overshadow that in peoples minds, I think he is free to do so.  It might hurt his chances in an election though.

If people were respectful of each other we could do both.  I imagine that is what many other countries will do to get rolling.   Consideration for others has been framed in the US as a communist state take over of people's rights.  A President who wanted to lead the country and make it great again might have done something to discourage that view instead of feeding it.