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Raptor Witness

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

We're off to the races with the formation of Arthur, which is not expected to be a big deal, wind-wise, but could become a bigger deal, rainfall-wise, somewhere. The forecast models are currently mixed as to what this system will do, and where it will end up.

49905482868_d40f590e7c_c.jpg

Animated Loop

Edited by Raptor Witness

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RoofGardener

So we don't know where it will go, or how strong it will become ? 

< munches crisps > 

Let us know when the information firms up ? 

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and then
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

So we don't know where it will go, or how strong it will become ? 

< munches crisps > 

Let us know when the information firms up ? 

Never fear, he'll paint a picture that can be interpreted a million different ways and tell you why he's so divinely inspired later...

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Latest, as Arthur waves goodbye ....

Tropical Storm Arthur

Animated Version

 

 

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

I have seen glimpses of a terrible wind, somewhere on earth, unlike any that I’ve ever observed, which leaves very little in its wake, but I have not received a hurricane forecast, so far, this year.

I’m not even sure it was a hurricane that I saw, because it was so devastating. I saw a place where the wind had leveled everything in it’s path, above a few inches in height, as far as the eye could see.

Edited by Raptor Witness
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kel_kel

raptor witness, where?? 

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the13bats
11 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

I have seen glimpses of a terrible wind, somewhere on earth, unlike any that I’ve ever observed, which leaves very little in its wake, but I have not received a hurricane forecast, so far, this year.

I’m not even sure it was a hurricane that I saw, because it was so devastating. I saw a place where the wind had leveled everything in it’s path, above a few inches in height, as far as the eye could see.

Trump rally?

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the13bats

I just hope our leaky roof makes it thru this season.

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Raptor Witness
9 hours ago, kel_kel said:

raptor witness, where?? 

I’m not sure, the only clue was some sort of small, red object, that I saw in the green, wind swept grass; which could refer back to an earlier, non-weather forecast about a “glistening, ruby colored candy.”

So this may not be weather related, at all, but the continued effects of the Covid-19 storm, which is destroying something in a different way.

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

That Was Fast: Tropical Storm Bertha Develops and Makes Landfall Over South Carolina 

ir-bertha-1612Z-5_27_20.jpg.d96cc6add44939d0857ac0bf7073dcce.jpg

 Weather Underground 5-27-2020

Bertha was upgraded by the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center directly from invest to named-storm status at 8:30 am EDT Wednesday, and it made landfall around 9:30 am EDT near Mount Pleasant, NC, just northeast of Charleston. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 50 mph at landfall and were kept at that range with the 11 am EDT advisory, when Bertha’s small center was located about 15 miles inland, just west of Georgetown.

A couple of videos of Hot Towers developing, just as Tropical Storm Bertha came home to South Carolina

#1   https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1265628375332184071?s=20

#2  https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1265604217311551489?s=20

Edited by Raptor Witness

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the13bats

I really dont want any hits so ill grab me a sharpie and a map and make that darn storm go where i want it to....

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Raptor Witness

Take it away Levi Cowan ...

This could end up being a flood event for the Mississippi River Valley, given the expected track, which is essentially straight north, into Canada. Calculators are whizzing, as to the total amount of the deluge.

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Tropical Storm Gonzalo sets a record as it churns toward the Caribbean - CNN July 22, 2020

This is the earliest that a storm has received a name starting with the letter "G" since the United States began using a named-storm system in 1953.

On average the 7th named storm in a season is on September 16.

Gonzalo - Current Infrared Forecast Track

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

It would appear as if the friends of the wind are busy this year.

Isaias Forecast Track

Visible 10 30 PM

Animated Version

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

50174743121_9b0427fb5a_o.gif

Source

Isaias is looking more comfortable in his new home.  We're beginning to see the formation of an inner core, which will help fend off the dry air and southwesterly shear, a bit.

50174762321_a19858dfcf_c.jpg

Animated Version

Hot towers going up around the core means we could have a Cat. 2 soon.  Isaias finding lots of food in the Bahamas.

Edited by Raptor Witness

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susieice
42 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Isaias hits South Carolina at a Cat 1.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/weather/hurricane-isaias-carolinas-tuesday/index.html

Seems to me to actually be an active year. I hope there are no big ones this year.

It was a low grade Cat 1. I'm just sitting here in eastern PA waiting for Isaias to get here around 10-11 AM today. It will be a tropical storm by then. They want 5 inches of rain by evening.

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susieice

It's raining pretty heavy now as the outer bands reach us.

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Raptor Witness

Tropical storms Laura and Marco both appear to be a rare dual threat to the U.S., with the potential of seeing a first-ever double hurricane scenario in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.

Both storms also appear to be undergoing rapid intensification this A.M.

 

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Marco, Laura, Marco, Laura, Marco ..... Landfall 

Tropical Storm Marco Tropical Storm Laura

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Given this highly unusual, crisscrossing path over southern Louisiana, both of which would appear poised to pull water into Lake Pontchartrain in back to back fashion; my advice is to go ahead and evacuate the low lying areas of New Orleans.

Better safe than sorry, you weren’t prepared .... especially on the eve of Katrina’s anniversary.

Just as Marco is releasing his grip on Lake Pontchartrain, Laura is handed the baton, and you didn’t see the potential danger coming, again?

Are newer pumps and bigger and better levees really a panacea for “the poison wind?”(RW’s forecast circa August 2005)

Hurricane Marco Forecast Track

Hurricane Laura Forecast Track

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

 

 

Watching President Trump nervously comment on his spoiled political convention, this evening, reminds me of the Republican national conventions of 7 and 11 years ago, which were also, curiously spoiled by hurricanes. Not to mention what will become the largest wildfire in California history, this week.

People who claim that Mother Earth doesn’t have a political bone to pick, aren’t paying attention to the actuarial stats.

I don’t know who would ever sell these people a policy for their plight.

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness

Imagine what amazing things Laura can do over the ocean ....

Current Location of Laura - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024654.shtml?radii#contents

Source

Southeast Cuba Topography - https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cuba_Topography.png

Source - Cuba Topography
 

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Raptor Witness

Laura ..... this AM, looks perfectly harmless.

Watching The Weather Channel, it’s clear that there’s no point in calling her Rosemarys Baby, yet

Tropical Storm Laura

 

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Raptor Witness

Levi says Laura could be a Cat 4 at landfall .....

 

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