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the13bats

Next potus % to win

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the13bats

Okay, out of bored fun heres a running thread, you can change your % as much as you like,

At this moment i will say 75% don will win 2020.

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19_Kilo

I think you're pretty close, maybe a tad high for The Donald.

I'll go with 68% chance of Trumpy winning 2nd term. 

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sci-nerd

I appreciate high odds for the donny-dummy. It reminds me of the odds for the hillary, back then.

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the13bats
4 minutes ago, 19_Kilo said:

I think you're pretty close, maybe a tad high for The Donald.

I'll go with 68% chance of Trumpy winning 2nd term. 

Right, so tomorrow i might have a different %

Im not all that politically savvy but i do believe many prez have won a 2nd term only because people feared change,  if the current guy didnt mess things up too badly, the economy hurt bush and the hostage thing hurt carter. Etc.

 

 

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19_Kilo
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Right, so tomorrow i might have a different %

Im not all that politically savvy but i do believe many prez have won a 2nd term only because people feared change,  if the current guy didnt mess things up too badly, the economy hurt bush and the hostage thing hurt carter. Etc.

 

 

Yeah, the incumbent POTUS has a decided advantage from the gitgo. About two-thirds of past presidents win a second term. And given his approval rate is over 50% and the Covid fiasco hasn't hurt him as much as the Dems hoped, and lastly, given that once again the DNC cannot produce a candidate who isn't a jingoistic empty suit, his chances living on Pennsylvania Avenue for 4 more years look pretty solid.

Edited by 19_Kilo
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19_Kilo
19 minutes ago, sci-nerd said:

I appreciate high odds for the donny-dummy. It reminds me of the odds for the hillary, back then.

Except Hillary didn't really want to win. 

The Donald does. And very badly.

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the13bats
3 minutes ago, 19_Kilo said:

Yeah, the incumbent POTUS has a decided advantage from the gitgo. About two-thirds of past presidents win a second term. And given his approval rate is over 50% and the Covid fiasco hasn't hurt him as much as the Dems hoped, and lastly, given that once again the DNC cannot produce a candidate who isn't a jingoistic empty suit, his chances living on Pennsylvania Avenue for 4 more years look pretty solid.

Trump is in some ways his own worse enemy but hes also his own best spin doctor

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Hankenhunter
1 minute ago, 19_Kilo said:

Except Hillary didn't really want to win. 

The Donald does. And very badly.

Only because he's going to prison if he doesn't win again. 

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the13bats
2 minutes ago, 19_Kilo said:

Except Hillary didn't really want to win. 

The Donald does. And very badly.

Oh i think she did want it bad but also thought it was in the bag, i read she had an epic tantrum when she lost, and she still seems p***ed about it.

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the13bats
Just now, Hankenhunter said:

Only because he's going to prison if he doesn't win again. 

No matter what a guy like trump will never do a day in jail.

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Desertrat56

I still think it is 50/50.

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19_Kilo
36 minutes ago, Hankenhunter said:

Only because he's going to prison if he doesn't win again. 

Why do you think that?

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RAyMO

I'll go 60/40 in trumps favour - only because history shows the US electorate tends to stick with the incumbent - for better or for worse. 

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Aaron2017

Margin between Trump and Biden is small, but Trump is the bookies favorite to win:

10/11 - Trump wins - (Win just 91 cents for every dollar bet.)

6/5 - Biden wins - (Win $1.20 for every dollar bet.)

 

 

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the13bats
2 hours ago, 19_Kilo said:

Why do you think that?

I dont believe don will see a day in grey bar hotel but i believe the moment he is no longer potus he will spend a lot of time and money staying out of it,

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spartan max2

I'd say 47 percent Trump.

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Festina
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, the13bats said:

No matter what a guy like trump will never do a day in jail.

No president has ever gone to jail and none will for they were/are all good employees of the “God of money”  who rules the world.  Woodrow Wilson and FDR were deserving of prison and yet they still get honors and real Estate named for them.  

 

 

Edited by Festina
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Festina
2 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

I still think it is 50/50.

Or 49.5 and 50.5 as it usually goes.

Odd how it’s so close these days.  Makes one wonder....

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Hankenhunter
2 hours ago, 19_Kilo said:

Why do you think that?

No more presidential immunity. The courts are stacked in a holding pattern with pending lawsuits, and criminal charges just waiting for him to lose. That's his real reason for running again. Do you think he's enjoying bring president? 

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Hankenhunter

Im shooting for the moon with a landslide Biden win, and take back the Senate. Dare to dream. 

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19_Kilo
21 minutes ago, Hankenhunter said:

No more presidential immunity. The courts are stacked in a holding pattern with pending lawsuits, and criminal charges just waiting for him to lose. That's his real reason for running again. Do you think he's enjoying bring president? 

Of course he enjoys it. It appeals to and feeds his huge ego. As far as all those alleged crimes and lawsuits, uh..the Dems tried that before. Rather, have been continually trying. Thus far it hasn't really worked out too well. There's no reason to think their frantic yet spurious and obviously politically motivated grumbling will yield any more successful results.

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Sir Wearer of Hats

There’s bog all chance Donnie Turnip should win. 
Therefore he’ll be president in 2021.

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Desertrat56
12 hours ago, Festina said:

Or 49.5 and 50.5 as it usually goes.

Odd how it’s so close these days.  Makes one wonder....

Yeah, makes one wonder why a crazy person and a senile person are supposed to be our only choices. 

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Festina
2 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Yeah, makes one wonder why a crazy person and a senile person are supposed to be our only choices. 

It’s very good that you see. :D This will account for much when you depart. For others, they will struggle.

How many times the lessons are given — and more blatantly now than ever — and yet they still remain blind.  

It’s a mad world m’dear.  

 

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the13bats
12 hours ago, Hankenhunter said:

No more presidential immunity. The courts are stacked in a holding pattern with pending lawsuits, and criminal charges just waiting for him to lose. That's his real reason for running again. Do you think he's enjoying bring president? 

 

12 hours ago, 19_Kilo said:

Of course he enjoys it. It appeals to and feeds his huge ego. As far as all those alleged crimes and lawsuits, uh..the Dems tried that before. Rather, have been continually trying. Thus far it hasn't really worked out too well. There's no reason to think their frantic yet spurious and obviously politically motivated grumbling will yield any more successful results.

I think the idea of being potus seemed cool to don like shaving vinces head in that wrestling show but then don who is lazy by nature and likes to do what he wants when he wants got hit with the fact that now he actually has a job, its hard work and hes not in charge the way he has been all his life,

Sure it still placates that huge fragile ego but that comes at a cost, he could get the same from say MCing some beauty pageant or reality show things he has 100% control over, remember that ego, a talk show host is laughed at in a good way for saying stupid stuff,

And sure there are countless legal issues waiting for the second he is no longer potus and very few of them have much to do with dems, you see when hes not potus dems and reps too will loose interest in him, quickly forgetting him, but not all the pending court legal issues, those are waiting like so many buzzards, he wont go to jail but it will cost time and money.

I think at his age and personality and all he would much rather be on the golf course and paying sex trade workers not to sing about their affairs,  i too believe he is stuck and needs 2020 for lots of reasons but he doesnt really want it.

 

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