Egypt and Ethiopia to fight over a dam?

[+and-then]

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/egypt/egypt-ethiopia-prepare-for-war-over-nile-dam/2020/05/20/

Looks like Ethiopia and Egypt may be about to boogaloo over water from the Nile.  

[RoofGardener]

Frankly my dear, I don't give a Dam !  

[RoofGardener]

Joking apart: the Egyptian armed forces would absolutely flatten Ethiopia. 

[Piney]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Joking apart: the Egyptian armed forces would absolutely flatten Ethiopia. 

In less than a week.....

[Unusual Tournament]

12 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Joking apart: the Egyptian armed forces would absolutely flatten Ethiopia. 

IMO what Egypt should worry about first is flattening the left over Muslim Brotherhood in Libya first. when they secure their western border they should turn their attention south.

[RoofGardener]

34 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

IMO what Egypt should worry about first is flattening the left over Muslim Brotherhood in Libya first. when they secure their western border they should turn their attention south.

Hmmm... I'd hardly suggest that Libya is a major threat to Egypt ? Having their water supply cut off - or at least diminished - is a major threat however ? 

Ethiopia will back down. It has no choice. 

[Unusual Tournament]

16 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm... I'd hardly suggest that Libya is a major threat to Egypt ? Having their water supply cut off - or at least diminished - is a major threat however ? 

Ethiopia will back down. It has no choice. 

I think you’ll find that the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted from power in Egypt. The very same that wanted the ban bananas least women get sexually tempered  while making fruit salad. No real difference to ISIS. They are more of a threat than petty squabbles over water rights, IMO.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Captain Risky

[Buzz_Light_Year]

Reminds me of something Anwar Sadat said something to the effect that the only reason Egypt would have to go to war would be over water.

Found a reference for the statement.

Quote

The Nile Basin
Three prominent Egyptian leaders in the last half century predicted water wars in Egypt. In 1979, Anwar el-Sadat said that water was “the only matter that could take Egypt to war again.” In 1995 Egyptian World Bank official, Ismail Serageldin said “Many of the wars this century were about oil, but those of the next century will be over water.” In 1988 Egyptian diplomat Boutros Boutros-Ghali said, “The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile, not politics.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/05/05/the-future-of-water-wars/

[+and-then]

15 hours ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Reminds me of something Anwar Sadat said something to the effect that the only reason Egypt would have to go to war would be over water.

Found a reference for the statement.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/05/05/the-future-of-water-wars/

Meanwhile, the Israelis are creating much of their own with desalination plants.  If any nation in that area is going to keep up with the needs of an ever-increasing population, they're going to have to find ways to make seawater potable.

[RoofGardener]

On 5/22/2020 at 1:05 AM, and then said:

Meanwhile, the Israelis are creating much of their own with desalination plants.  If any nation in that area is going to keep up with the needs of an ever-increasing population, they're going to have to find ways to make seawater potable.

Hmm.. Egypt is no slouch in that department. They have over 60 desalination plants already, with plans for another 20 or so. Makes you wonder why they are so sensitive about the Nile ? 

https://wwww.dailynewssegypt.com/2019/12/02/egypt-receives-3-international-bids-to-implement-joint-water-desalination-projects/

Edited May 27, 2020 by RoofGardener

[DarkHunter]

3 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmm.. Egypt is no slouch in that department. They have over 60 desalination plants already, with plans for another 20 or so. Makes you wonder why they are so sensitive about the Nile ? 

https://wwww.dailynewssegypt.com/2019/12/02/egypt-receives-3-international-bids-to-implement-joint-water-desalination-projects/

Egypt gets 56.8 billion cubic meters of fresh water per year from the Nile river.  With all their desalination plants combined, including the planned ones that arent yet functional, Egypt only gets about 401.5 million cubic meters of fresh water per year. 

Also the Nile river is still vital for Egypt's agricultural sector, about 14% of Egypt's economy and 28% of all jobs, and they are concerned any drop in the Nile river would devastate that sector long term.

[spartan max2]

I'm not really a doom and gloomer, but get ready for the coming water wars in Africa in a few decades.

It will be tragic.

Edited May 27, 2020 by spartan max2

[Wepwawet]

On 5/21/2020 at 9:10 AM, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm... I'd hardly suggest that Libya is a major threat to Egypt ?

In normal circumstances, no, but the active involvement of Turkey, and the transfer of terrorists from Syria to Libya to fight against Haftar has altered the equation. Egypt is clearly rattled by a threat to it's western border that it thought had been controlled by Haftar. He is in retreat from Tripoli, and if he falls, then Libya will become a hotbed of terrorism, or more than it already is. Hence the call, backed by numerous western and Arab states, by El-Sisi on Saturday for there to be a ceasefire before the forces of Tripoli get to, and advance east of Sirte. Haftar has of course said he will abide by a ceasefire, but Tripoli has not even responded, at least by when I wrote this. Over the weekend the Egyptians moved up to the border in force, and a deadline for complying with the ceasfire put at 1600 today. That deadline passed an hour ago as of writing this. What happens if Tripoli forces continue advancing is anybodies guess, but if Egyptian and Turkish forces ever get to engage, then the dam is of no consequence. I've got all this from Egyptian media as I find nothing in our MSM, yet.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Wepwawet

[RoofGardener]

4 hours ago, Wepwawet said:

In normal circumstances, no, but the active involvement of Turkey, and the transfer of terrorists from Syria to Libya to fight against Haftar has altered the equation. Egypt is clearly rattled by a threat to it's western border that it thought had been controlled by Haftar. He is in retreat from Tripoli, and if he falls, then Libya will become a hotbed of terrorism, or more than it already is. Hence the call, backed by numerous western and Arab states, by El-Sisi on Saturday for there to be a ceasefire before the forces of Tripoli get to, and advance east of Sirte. Haftar has of course said he will abide by a ceasefire, but Tripoli has not even responded, at least by when I wrote this. Over the weekend the Egyptians moved up to the border in force, and a deadline for complying with the ceasfire put at 1600 today. That deadline passed an hour ago as of writing this. What happens if Tripoli forces continue advancing is anybodies guess, but if Egyptian and Turkish forces ever get to engage, then the dam is of no consequence. I've got all this from Egyptian media as I find nothing in our MSM, yet.

Thanks for that @Wepwawet. Having said that, Egypt's military is pretty large; I can't see a bunch of terrorist Jihadi's being an existential threat to it ? 

[Wepwawet]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Thanks for that @Wepwawet. Having said that, Egypt's military is pretty large; I can't see a bunch of terrorist Jihadi's being an existential threat to it ? 

No, the chariot's of pharaoh would crush and smite them with ease. The problem is in having the Turks on the border, and they do not get along, being the modern Hitties and all, and that the Egyptians would have an actively unfriendly border with the strong possibility of the Turks, or the also unfriendly regime in Tripoli, turning a blind eye to terrorists infiltrating, infact aiding them. Egypt already has problems trying to deal with daesh type characters in Sinai, and another anti terror war in the western desert is not needed. There is a deja-vu here of early 19th Century history, as today the Egyptians and Greeks are alligned against Turkey over oil claims in the eastern med, not too much of a surprise, just as they were some two hundred years ago when the fledgling Egyptian state, free of Ottoman control, aided the Greeks in their fight for freedom from the Ottomans. Funny how some issues just keep coming around and around.

[RoofGardener]

10 hours ago, Wepwawet said:

No, the chariot's of pharaoh would crush and smite them with ease. The problem is in having the Turks on the border, and they do not get along, being the modern Hitties and all, and that the Egyptians would have an actively unfriendly border with the strong possibility of the Turks, or the also unfriendly regime in Tripoli, turning a blind eye to terrorists infiltrating, infact aiding them. Egypt already has problems trying to deal with daesh type characters in Sinai, and another anti terror war in the western desert is not needed. There is a deja-vu here of early 19th Century history, as today the Egyptians and Greeks are alligned against Turkey over oil claims in the eastern med, not too much of a surprise, just as they were some two hundred years ago when the fledgling Egyptian state, free of Ottoman control, aided the Greeks in their fight for freedom from the Ottomans. Funny how some issues just keep coming around and around.

@Wepwawet, I'm slightly confused ? In what way are the "Turks at the border" ? 

[Wepwawet]

5 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

@Wepwawet, I'm slightly confused ? In what way are the "Turks at the border" ? 

They are not at the border now, but if Haftar's forces suffer total collapse and the Tripoli government victorious due to direct military help from Turkey, then there will be a Turkish satrap in Tripoli. It could be that Cyreniaca will lapse into anarchy and Turkish troops will not actually be on the border, but Egypt will not tolerate anarchy and would need to act. Using the term "at the border" may be a bit strict, but as Turks are in Libya, then they are already in a bordering country. I very much doubt they would get closer than a few hundred klicks to the border, perhaps Benghazi about 500 klicks west, but to put it another way, advancing west from the border, the first respectable armed formations the Egyptians would face will be Turks.

An analogy of sorts would be if there were serious problems in Mexico and the US needed to intervene militarily to secure the border in depth, but apart from disorganized rabble, the first real military formations they encountered were Russian, unexceptable, and there would of course have been the most serious issues before the first Russian boot stepped ashore in Mexico. But, though on a smaller scale with less ramifications for the entire world, Egypt finds itself in this otherwise fantasy situation with a potential enemy in the process of occupying a weak neighbour. Look at this together with the situation in Syria, and Tukey's actions do not look good from the perspective of Cairo, once joined as one state to Damascus many years ago.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Wepwawet

[Unusual Tournament]

On 6/9/2020 at 10:56 PM, Wepwawet said:

They are not at the border now, but if Haftar's forces suffer total collapse and the Tripoli government victorious due to direct military help from Turkey, then there will be a Turkish satrap in Tripoli. It could be that Cyreniaca will lapse into anarchy and Turkish troops will not actually be on the border, but Egypt will not tolerate anarchy and would need to act. Using the term "at the border" may be a bit strict, but as Turks are in Libya, then they are already in a bordering country. I very much doubt they would get closer than a few hundred klicks to the border, perhaps Benghazi about 500 klicks west, but to put it another way, advancing west from the border, the first respectable armed formations the Egyptians would face will be Turks.

An analogy of sorts would be if there were serious problems in Mexico and the US needed to intervene militarily to secure the border in depth, but apart from disorganized rabble, the first real military formations they encountered were Russian, unexceptable, and there would of course have been the most serious issues before the first Russian boot stepped ashore in Mexico. But, though on a smaller scale with less ramifications for the entire world, Egypt finds itself in this otherwise fantasy situation with a potential enemy in the process of occupying a weak neighbour. Look at this together with the situation in Syria, and Tukey's actions do not look good from the perspective of Cairo, once joined as one state to Damascus many years ago.

I think its safe to say that if Egypt was gonna go in they would have already. The Turks and Russians are playing the same good cop bad cop as they did in Syria. 

[Golden Duck]

If it involves Ethiopia's infrastructure, it involves China.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/2/88316/Egypt-China-warn-against-unilateral-decisions-on-Ethiopian-Dam-statement

[Unusual Tournament]

As Egypt and Ethiopia do not share a land boarder i would think it would be a simple case of waiting for the dam to come on line and mounting long range air attacks using stand-off munitions and  attack the dam. Problem solved. How Egyptian president Sisi has allowed this to even reach this late stage shows he's the wrong person in charge. 

[Jon the frog]

On 5/21/2020 at 8:05 PM, and then said:

Meanwhile, the Israelis are creating much of their own with desalination plants.  If any nation in that area is going to keep up with the needs of an ever-increasing population, they're going to have to find ways to make seawater potable.

The best way to do desalination plants is to build nuclear power-plants to feed them with energy. El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant will be the first one for Egypt in 2026 if all go well. But Israelis have a tendency to bomb their neighbors nuclear facilities, lol

Edited June 28, 2020 by Jon the frog

[RoofGardener]

On 6/27/2020 at 11:15 PM, Captain Risky said:

As Egypt and Ethiopia do not share a land boarder i would think it would be a simple case of waiting for the dam to come on line and mounting long range air attacks using stand-off munitions and  attack the dam. Problem solved. How Egyptian president Sisi has allowed this to even reach this late stage shows he's the wrong person in charge. 

I'm not sure that the dam is within range of the Egyptian Air Force ? 

[Golden Duck]

Quote

...

The UNSC will likely welcome any African Union-brokered deal. On the UNSC, China—which has given $16 billion in loans to Ethiopia— has the most at stake in the dam’s filling. Beijing will rely on the electricity generated by the dam to power a future Chinese-funded $1.7 billion railway line linking Ethiopia’s interior to ports in neighbouring Djibouti on the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia is likely to proceed with dam filling, regardless of whether a deal is reached in two weeks, and Beijing will most likely support its decision at the UN.

...

https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/un-security-council-to-address-objections-to-ethiopian-dam-project/

Yep, this is just an African only dispute.

[Unusual Tournament]

6 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

I'm not sure that the dam is within range of the Egyptian Air Force ? 

Egypt have French and Russian jets with long legs buddy refueling. If the fly from a southern airbase they’ll reach. 

[RoofGardener]

On 6/30/2020 at 7:35 PM, Captain Risky said:

Egypt have French and Russian jets with long legs buddy refueling. If the fly from a southern airbase they’ll reach. 

Mid-air refueling ? Hmm... a complex operation. The aircraft may be capable of it, but are the pilots ? Egypt only demonstrated using Mig-29's as buddy refueling tankers this year. 

I somehow can't see them risking a daring, long-range bombing mission with so many pieces of the jigsaw that could go wrong ? And it would have to be multiple aircraft to have a hope of breaching the dam. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by RoofGardener