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and then

Egypt and Ethiopia to fight over a dam?

35 posts in this topic

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Golden Duck
4 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Mid-air refueling ? Hmm... a complex operation. The aircraft may be capable of it, but are the pilots ? Egypt only demonstrated using Mig-29's as buddy refueling tankers this year. 

I somehow can't see them risking a daring, long-range bombing mission with so many pieces of the jigsaw that could go wrong ? And it would have to be multiple aircraft to have a hope of breaching the dam. 

And, the bigger question is 'would they risk upsetting the Chinese?'

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RoofGardener
7 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

And, the bigger question is 'would they risk upsetting the Chinese?'

Well, that - of course - is a good question. China invests billions in Egypt. 

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Golden Duck
3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Well, that - of course - is a good question. China invests billions in Egypt. 

And this Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Chinese hydroelectric scheme.  China is expected to support the GERD at the UNSC meeting.

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RoofGardener
1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

And this Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Chinese hydroelectric scheme.  China is expected to support the GERD at the UNSC meeting.

Well then, it will all end in a negotiated settlement. Egypt will not go to war with Ethiopia ! 

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The Truman show
On 7/2/2020 at 4:58 AM, RoofGardener said:

Mid-air refueling ? Hmm... a complex operation. The aircraft may be capable of it, but are the pilots ? Egypt only demonstrated using Mig-29's as buddy refueling tankers this year. 

I somehow can't see them risking a daring, long-range bombing mission with so many pieces of the jigsaw that could go wrong ? And it would have to be multiple aircraft to have a hope of breaching the dam. 

Listen mate... the Mig-29 is a short range fighter. You'd need something like French Rafale  or the Russian SU-35 or a combination of both. You wanna take off close to the Sudan border. You'd need to squadrons one headed to the dam the over covering. You want the Rafale armed with storm shadow stand off missiles. They can take out the dam from 300 km away. Its in Sudan 's interest to turn a blind eye. they can refuel if need be on the way back. 

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RoofGardener
2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Listen mate... the Mig-29 is a short range fighter. You'd need something like French Rafale  or the Russian SU-35 or a combination of both. You wanna take off close to the Sudan border. You'd need to squadrons one headed to the dam the over covering. You want the Rafale armed with storm shadow stand off missiles. They can take out the dam from 300 km away. Its in Sudan 's interest to turn a blind eye. they can refuel if need be on the way back. 

The Mig29's are the aircraft capable of offering in-flight refueling services to other aircraft. 

Storm Shadow only has a 450Kg warhead. Somehow I doubt that would be enough to breach the dam wall ? 

Anyway, it's all academic. As @Golden Duck has already pointed out, China would intervene politically to prevent was breaking out. 

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The Truman show
1 minute ago, RoofGardener said:

The Mig29's are the aircraft capable of offering in-flight refueling services to other aircraft. 

Storm Shadow only has a 450Kg warhead. Somehow I doubt that would be enough to breach the dam wall ? 

Anyway, it's all academic. As @Golden Duck has already pointed out, China would intervene politically to prevent was breaking out. 

a couple of storm shadows could easily compromise the dam wall and destroy it. There is also the KH-55 Russian cruise missile that also can destroy the dam. The Mig-29 is a short range fighter optimised for visual range dog fighting. It would not be of service when the Rafale and Su-35 could easily take care of the mission. 

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RoofGardener
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

a couple of storm shadows could easily compromise the dam wall and destroy it. There is also the KH-55 Russian cruise missile that also can destroy the dam. The Mig-29 is a short range fighter optimised for visual range dog fighting. It would not be of service when the Rafale and Su-35 could easily take care of the mission. 

Umm.. two 1000lb bombs could destroy a dam ? I find that hard to believe. Remember the problems the Allies had trying to bomb German dams ? 

Egypt doesn't have access to the kind of planes that can launch KH-55's. Anyway, they also only have a 500Kg warhead. 

@Captain Risky, bear in mind that the famous "bouncing bombs" had almost 6000lb's of explosives in them, and THEY had the benefit of exploding at the inner base of the dam, with the weight of water focusing the blast. A mere 1000lb exploding on the external dry-side dam wall would surely be piffling in comparison ? 

Edited by RoofGardener

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The Truman show
On 7/3/2020 at 10:11 PM, RoofGardener said:

Umm.. two 1000lb bombs could destroy a dam ? I find that hard to believe. Remember the problems the Allies had trying to bomb German dams ? 

Egypt doesn't have access to the kind of planes that can launch KH-55's. Anyway, they also only have a 500Kg warhead. 

@Captain Risky, bear in mind that the famous "bouncing bombs" had almost 6000lb's of explosives in them, and THEY had the benefit of exploding at the inner base of the dam, with the weight of water focusing the blast. A mere 1000lb exploding on the external dry-side dam wall would surely be piffling in comparison ? 

Air to ground weapons have come along way since WW2. The Storm Shadow or Scalp have a stand off capability with a delayed fuse explosion meant to bury the missile into concrete and then explode after it has entered a certain depth. Egypt is negotiating wth Russia for the SU-35 and they'll have access to the latest missiles also. But they don't need them. They have the Rafale and Mirage that can both fire scalp's and the F-16 to provide escort.      

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RoofGardener
22 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Air to ground weapons have come along way since WW2. The Storm Shadow or Scalp have a stand off capability with a delayed fuse explosion meant to bury the missile into concrete and then explode after it has entered a certain depth. Egypt is negotiating wth Russia for the SU-35 and they'll have access to the latest missiles also. But they don't need them. They have the Rafale and Mirage that can both fire scalp's and the F-16 to provide escort.      

OOooh right... I didn't know that the SCALP system had a penetrator warhead. 

Regardless, I don't think the Chinese would allow the two countries to go to war ? 

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