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Half of Candians believe COVID conspiracies


stereologist

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https://news.yahoo.com/half-canadians-fooled-covid-19-conspiracy-theories-study-164027665.html

I think half is a pretty big number. It does say nearly half in the article.

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The School of Journalism at Carleton University in Ottawa surveyed 2,000 Canadians and found that 46 percent believe in at least one of four key myths circulating online.

Here are the first two items.

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The top fake, according to the study -- that the coronavirus was engineered as a bioweapon in a Chinese lab and released into the general population -- was believed by 26 percent of Canadians.

Another 11 percent of respondents said they thought COVID-19 is not a serious illness but was being spread to cover up alleged harmful health effects associated with exposure to 5G wireless technology.

 

It seems that the cell tower burning craze in the UK  that spread to the Netherlands has reached Canada.

 

 

Oh my gosh the article even tells us the margin of error of the poll.

Quote

The survey was conducted May 5 to 8, and has a 2.19 percent margin of error.

My guess is that the number is showing one too many digits of precision. It should be written as 2.2%

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Interesting

Quote

The researchers noted that people who spent a lot of time on social media platforms, including Twitter, Instagram and TikTok, were most likely to believe in the conspiracy theories.

 

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What has me puzzled is that I have met multiple people that believe in contradictory conspiracy theories regarding Covid-19.

Mainly 1) It's a big hoax by the democrats/globalists/medical industry/etc..

and     2) It's a china bio-weapon released/escaped from a lab.

 

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This pandemic has been fertile ground for conspiracies.

There are 199 listed in the coronavirus conspiracy thread.

The fact that belief is so widespread seems reasonable. As Gromdor points out belief does not mean being sensible.

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1 hour ago, stereologist said:

The top fake, according to the study -- that the coronavirus was engineered as a bioweapon in a Chinese lab and released into the general population -- was believed by 26 percent of Canadians.

They let Falun Dafa followers in in droves and let them distribute the Epoch Times far and wide so this doesn't surprise me. 

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Working in retail throughout this, I can tell you that I get told daily it's a hoax and just a way for the government to control us :rolleyes:

It really saddens me that so many people are uneducated about this.  I read news from around the world, all the governments and medical board from every country would have to be in on it

Edited by glorybebe
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And you try to help people out and they refuse. They are arrogant about their lack of education.

I'm not polite about it after a bit.

The hubris of stupidity is certainly worse in recent years.

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"Half of Canadians believe" - A slight exaggeration perhaps?

 

There are over 37 million people living in Canada.  That means 18.5 million believe the virus is a conspiracy.  What does the OP linked article actually say -

The School of Journalism at Carleton University in Ottawa surveyed 2,000 Canadians and found that 46 percent believe in at least one of four key myths circulating online.

So in reality 99.9% of the population were never asked.

 

 

Edited by Aaron2017
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1 hour ago, Aaron2017 said:

"Half of Canadians believe" - A slight exaggeration perhaps?

There are over 37 million people living in Canada.  That means 18.5 million believe the virus is a conspiracy.  What does the OP linked article actually say -

The School of Journalism at Carleton University in Ottawa surveyed 2,000 Canadians and found that 46 percent believe in at least one of four key myths circulating online.

So in reality 99.9% of the population were never asked.

It should have read that nearly half of Canadians surveyed believe etc.

The sample size also fell somewhat short.

I would hate to think that 18 million of us are that stupid. 

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6 hours ago, glorybebe said:

Working in retail throughout this, I can tell you that I get told daily it's a hoax and just a way for the government to control us :rolleyes:

It really saddens me that so many people are uneducated about this.  I read news from around the world, all the governments and medical board from every country would have to be in on it

I've not met one person who buys into any of the conspiracy theories. Most have a good understanding of it and what needs to be done to minimise its spread. But I can certainly see how impressionable social media junkies can fall for some of that nonsense.

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2 hours ago, Aaron2017 said:

"Half of Canadians believe" - A slight exaggeration perhaps?

 

There are over 37 million people living in Canada.  That means 18.5 million believe the virus is a conspiracy.  What does the OP linked article actually say -

The School of Journalism at Carleton University in Ottawa surveyed 2,000 Canadians and found that 46 percent believe in at least one of four key myths circulating online.

So in reality 99.9% of the population were never asked.

 

 

So what?

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4 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

I've not met one person who buys into any of the conspiracy theories. Most have a good understanding of it and what needs to be done to minimise its spread. But I can certainly see how impressionable social media junkies can fall for some of that nonsense.

In the interior there are a lot of...colourful characters.  Not saying they are hicks, but...

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7 hours ago, glorybebe said:

In the interior there are a lot of...colourful characters.  Not saying they are hicks, but...

Working in retail, I'm sure you get to see all kinds.

Any discussions I've overheard here at my end about conspiracy theories have mostly focused on Trump's nonsense and disregard for science, and of wanting our border to remain closed for as long as possible. New York is a bit too close for comfort, and given how heavily impacted our province has been, we don't need more of it.

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12 hours ago, stereologist said:

So what?

So there.  The topic heading says "half of Canadians believe...…"  This is misleading because it really should say - "Less than 1 percent of Canadians were asked, and half of them believe."

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Aaron2017 said:

So there.  The topic heading says "half of Canadians believe...…"  This is misleading because it really should say - "Less than 1 percent of Canadians were asked, and half of them believe."

 

 

You still don't understand how polling does work.

You should do that instead of pointing out how little you know about the subject.

This poll had a margin of error of only 2.2% which is pretty good for polls.

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6 hours ago, stereologist said:

You still don't understand how polling does work.

You should do that instead of pointing out how little you know about the subject.

This poll had a margin of error of only 2.2% which is pretty good for polls.

Yet again, you don't understand the article headline is misleading.

Only 2,000 people were surveyed.

Half of Canadian population = 18.5 million.

 

Headline is designed to be misleading so that people will click it.  The problem is, many people will only read the headline and jump to the wrong conclusion. 

survey.png

 

Here is another.

 

survey1.png

Half of population = 290 million people

Only 1,511 people asked.

Headline - Half of Americans believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories.

 

 

Confused Will Smith GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

Edited by Aaron2017
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1 hour ago, Aaron2017 said:

Yet again, you don't understand the article headline is misleading.

Only 2,000 people were surveyed.

Half of Canadian population = 18.5 million.

Headline is designed to be misleading so that people will click it.  The problem is, many people will only read the headline and jump to the wrong conclusion. 

survey.png

Here is another.

 

survey1.png

Half of population = 290 million people

Only 1,511 people asked.

Headline - Half of Americans believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories.

Yet again you are completely clueless  about sampling theory.

That's okay because you can always learn, that  is if you want to.

People every once in a rare while are just flummoxed by sampling. They either don't understand it or are unwilling to understand it.

I suspect  you are of the latter category. In fact, I suspect you are particularly bad at mathematics. That will make it extremely hard for you to learn how sampling works and how sampling can be proven.

It's a mathematical theory developed over centuries. Jut because you don't have a clue as to how it performed and why it works has no bearing on a methodology developed and refined over centuries.

https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/sampling-theory/

There you go - a starting place

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1 hour ago, stereologist said:

Yet again you are completely clueless  about sampling theory.

That's okay because you can always learn, that  is if you want to.

People every once in a rare while are just flummoxed by sampling. They either don't understand it or are unwilling to understand it.

I suspect  you are of the latter category. In fact, I suspect you are particularly bad at mathematics. That will make it extremely hard for you to learn how sampling works and how sampling can be proven.

It's a mathematical theory developed over centuries. Jut because you don't have a clue as to how it performed and why it works has no bearing on a methodology developed and refined over centuries.

https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/sampling-theory/

There you go - a starting place

 I understand completely.  2,000 people do not represent 37 million people.  Less than 1% of the population were asked.  That is not enough to form an opinion or create a theory.  If 40% of the population were asked then the theory may have some plausible basis to be believed, but less than 1% were asked.  If 500 surveys were carried out with several million taking part then it would at least have a measure of comparison to justify its accuracy, but only 2,000 out of 37 million people were asked to take part in one survey.

 

e.g.  Another exaggerated headline.

 

 

survey2a.png

and another.

 

survey2.png

Every survey with a sensational conclusion spread across their headline is based on what a tiny minority believe on the day they were surveyed - not withstanding the fact that they could have changed their minds the next day.

 

Edited by Aaron2017
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1 hour ago, Aaron2017 said:

 I understand completely.  2,000 people do not represent 37 million people.  Less than 1% of the population were asked.  That is not enough to form an opinion or create a theory.  If 40% of the population were asked then the theory may have some plausible basis to be believed, but less than 1% were asked.  If 500 surveys were carried out with several million taking part then it would at least have a measure of comparison to justify its accuracy, but only 2,000 out of 37 million people were asked to take part in one survey.

** snipped pointless junk **

Every survey with a sensational conclusion spread across their headline is based on what a tiny minority believe on the day they were surveyed - not withstanding the fact that they could have changed their minds the next day.

 

But you are absolutely clueless about sampling and samling theory.

For example this is laughably false: "2,000 people do not represent 37 million people."

This is true and acceptable: " Less than 1% of the population were asked. "

This is false: ' That is not enough to form an opinion or create a theory. "

You are just guessing because you are clueless about sampling. There is no theory here. You create a theory to explain facts. Sampling is based on sampling theory. ou should learn something about it.

The following is about wasting time and resources and would only change the precision of the result, not the result: 'If 40% of the population were asked then"

Learn about sampling theory and why this is a bad idea based on your argument from personal ignorance.

Here is more argument from your personal ignorance: " If 500 surveys were carried out with several million taking part then it would at least have a measure of comparison to justify its accuracy"

Learn some sampling theory instead of making up bad ideas. For example, it it precision not accuracy that you should have stated.

The only thing you are saying is that you completely and utterly ignorant about sampling and want to continue to reveal your sad state of affairs.

Why no learn something for a change? You just might enjoy learning.

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Let's see if you want to learn.

https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-decide-the-sample-size-when-polling-a-large-population

Quote

Sample size doesn't much depend on the population size, which is counter-intuitive to many.

Most polling companies use 400 or 1000 people in their samples.

There is a reason for this:

A sample size of 400 will give you a confidence interval of +/-5% 19 times out of 20 (95%)

A sample size of 1000 will give you a confidence interval of +/-3% 19 times out of 20 (95%)

When you are measuring a proportion near 50% anyways.

There it is, the population size, those from which the sample is chosen, does not have much effect on the sample size that is chosen. The sample size is chosen to balance between a desired precision and the cost of doing the poll.

 

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And here is more on the issue:

https://www.thoughtco.com/statistics-and-political-polls-3126164

Quote

Associated with the size of the sample is the margin of error. The larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error. Surprisingly, sample sizes as small as 1000 to 2000 are typically used for polls such as Presidential approval, whose margin of error is within a couple of percentage points. The margin of error could be made as small as desired by using a larger sample, however, this would require a higher cost to conduct the poll.

 

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And yet another statement on sample size.

http://www.tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/

Quote

The minimum sample size is 100

Most statisticians agree that the minimum sample size to get any kind of meaningful result is 100. If your population is less than 100 then you really need to survey all of them.

A good maximum sample size is usually 10% as long as it does not exceed 1000

A good maximum sample size is usually around 10% of the population, as long as this does not exceed 1000. For example, in a population of 5000, 10% would be 500. In a population of 200,000, 10% would be 20,000. This exceeds 1000, so in this case the maximum would be 1000.

Even in a population of 200,000, sampling 1000 people will normally give a fairly accurate result. Sampling more than 1000 people won’t add much to the accuracy given the extra time and money it would cost.

Choose a number between the minimum and maximum depending on the situation

Suppose that you want to survey students at a school which has 6000 pupils enrolled. The minimum sample would be 100. This would give you a rough, but still useful, idea about their opinions. The maximum sample would be 600, which would give you a fairly accurate idea about their opinions.

These are well worked out ideas and have been shown to be successful. This site does have caveats on the simple concepts they provide.

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14 minutes ago, stereologist said:

 

Why no learn something for a change? You just might enjoy learning.

Like I said, the headline is misleading.  It doesn't even say Canadians it says 'Candians'.  Did someone discover a new country?

 

 

candian.png

 

 

Edited by Aaron2017
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8 minutes ago, Aaron2017 said:

Like I said, the headline is misleading.  It doesn't even say Canadians it says 'Candians'.  Did someone discover a new country?

 

The headline is only considered misleading by those arguing from a position of personal ignorance.

Learn some sampling theory. Your suggestions of how to sample show you are clueless. I posted 3 different sites all giving you some basic idea of how to sample.

They all say the same thing - sample sizes are mostly independent of the population size and are used to control the precision, the margin of error.

 

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2 hours ago, Aaron2017 said:

I understand completely.  2,000 people do not represent 37 million people.  Less than 1% of the population were asked.  That is not enough to form an opinion or create a theory.  If 40% of the population were asked then the theory may have some plausible basis to be believed, but less than 1% were asked.  If 500 surveys were carried out with several million taking part then it would at least have a measure of comparison to justify its accuracy, but only 2,000 out of 37 million people were asked to take part in one survey.

If the people selected are representative of the overall population, and if the sample size is large enough, then it's possible to have a degree of confidence in the results of the survey. You're correct that with a larger sample size there's less of a chance results happened by coincidence, but for a population of just under 40 million, the ideal minimum sample size would be around 2400 or so. You really don't need much more than that to get a sense of where people's heads are at.

I would still take survey results with a grain of salt though. A similar (preliminary) study conducted in Quebec showed that one out of every ten Canadians believed COVID-19 conspiracy theories. It's a vastly different result from Carleton University's survey (most likely because half the respondents live in Quebec, but still).

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