UM-Bot Posted June 15, 2020 #1 Share Posted June 15, 2020 A new study has sought to calculate how many intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations might exist in our galaxy. https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/337602/milky-way-may-be-home-to-30-active-alien-civs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freetoroam Posted June 15, 2020 #2 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Well we do know of one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piney Posted June 15, 2020 #3 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Pretty broad. It doesn't take in all the factors involved for technological life to develop. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Walt' E. Kurtz Posted June 15, 2020 #4 Share Posted June 15, 2020 (edited) I know of one of them too but intelligent? Edited June 15, 2020 by 'Walt' E. Kurtz 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bison Posted June 15, 2020 #5 Share Posted June 15, 2020 The 30-civilizations-in-the-galaxy figure appears to be based on the assumption that these civilizations last about as ours has, since learning how to make ourselves somewhat conspicuous with radio waves. That amounts to about a hundred years. I assume that the number of radio-detectable civilizations is proportional to their technological longevity. If so, a thousand year lifetime would make for 300 civilizations in the galaxy. 10 thousand years-- 3000 civilizations, etc. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orphalesion Posted June 15, 2020 #6 Share Posted June 15, 2020 3 hours ago, freetoroam said: Well we do know of one. Now we only need to collect the other 29 for a complete set. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freetoroam Posted June 15, 2020 #7 Share Posted June 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Orphalesion said: Now we only need to collect the other 29 for a complete set. I would not want to bestow our virus riddled world on others. Wait til they start reading our facebook pages or see our leaders. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astrobeing Posted June 15, 2020 #8 Share Posted June 15, 2020 A study extrapolated from a single data point and produced a number greater than zero. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatetopa Posted June 15, 2020 #9 Share Posted June 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bison said: The 30-civilizations-in-the-galaxy figure appears to be based on the assumption that these civilizations last about as ours has, since learning how to make ourselves somewhat conspicuous with radio waves. That amounts to about a hundred years. I assume that the number of radio-detectable civilizations is proportional to their technological longevity. If so, a thousand year lifetime would make for 300 civilizations in the galaxy. 10 thousand years-- 3000 civilizations, etc. We have only been able to detect radio broadcasts for a little over a hundred years, so the lifespan of the receiver plays into this too. I do not think that in another 100 years we will still be pumping out a lot of radio waves in all directions. We are already reducing omni-directional broadcasts with cell phone towers, internet, and cable that have replaced many less efficient methods. You could be right, there may be 3000 civilizations out there that do not have a large detectable signature any longer. In another hundred years maybe we will be looking for directional or coded neutrino emissions because that is what we might be producing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bison Posted June 15, 2020 #10 Share Posted June 15, 2020 (edited) Radio waves are notably easy to produce. They may still be in use in the future, just as we still use fire, even though it was discovered hundreds of thousands of years ago. Yes, narrow beams and more efficient digital transmissions are already with us, and probably will be more so, in the future. Something like a planetary protection radar would presumably still need to be relatively high powered, and effectively omnidirectional, though perhaps serially. If any extraterrestrials want to contact 'beginners' like us, at some point in our development, they'd need to use what we can receive, Edited June 15, 2020 by bison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astrobeing Posted June 15, 2020 #11 Share Posted June 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, Tatetopa said: We have only been able to detect radio broadcasts for a little over a hundred years, so the lifespan of the receiver plays into this too. I do not think that in another 100 years we will still be pumping out a lot of radio waves in all directions. We haven't been for about thirty years. All modern broadcast towers (excluding shortwave) focus radio waves down towards the ground where the receivers are. There is simply no reason to send expensive transmission energy into space where no one will receive it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom1200 Posted June 15, 2020 #12 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Only thirty? I'm in regular contact with a dozen, and I know of at least twenty alien civilisations that have me permanently blocked. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myles Posted June 15, 2020 #13 Share Posted June 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Piney said: Pretty broad. It doesn't take in all the factors involved for technological life to develop. Agreed. Also, I don't think 1 planet (Earth) is enough to give us great info of how long or how often intelligent life shows up. If not for that asteroid, would Dinosaurs still rule the Earth and apes not had evolved? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piney Posted June 15, 2020 #14 Share Posted June 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom1200 said: Only thirty? I'm in regular contact with a dozen, and I know of at least twenty alien civilisations that have me permanently blocked. On top of the Midlands, the North and Scotland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDocMartens Posted June 15, 2020 #15 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Thirty seems awfully low. I mean, I�m no scientist, but... wait, I am. I�m sticking with awfully low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the13bats Posted June 15, 2020 #16 Share Posted June 15, 2020 4 hours ago, freetoroam said: I would not want to bestow our virus riddled world on others. Wait til they start reading our facebook pages or see our leaders. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Razman Posted June 15, 2020 #17 Share Posted June 15, 2020 (edited) Got to wonder how they come up with that number. Yet there are many billions of suns in our galaxy alone. Edited June 15, 2020 by razman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.United_Nations Posted June 15, 2020 #18 Share Posted June 15, 2020 If you read what Bison said then I might have a clearer understanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Wearer of Hats Posted June 15, 2020 #19 Share Posted June 15, 2020 9 hours ago, freetoroam said: Well we do know of one. I dunno, they’re awfully self-destructive on the whole. Not very civilised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astrobeing Posted June 16, 2020 #20 Share Posted June 16, 2020 3 hours ago, DirtyDocMartens said: Thirty seems awfully low. I mean, I�m no scientist, but... wait, I am. I�m sticking with awfully low. It seems extremely high to me. The odds of any other life in the galaxy could be a trillion trillion trillion to one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hankenhunter Posted June 16, 2020 #21 Share Posted June 16, 2020 This site has it narrowed down to 8. Carl Sagan said 10. https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/scientists-estimate-the-number-of-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-the-galaxy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astrobeing Posted June 16, 2020 #22 Share Posted June 16, 2020 11 hours ago, Hankenhunter said: This site has it narrowed down to 8. Carl Sagan said 10. https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/scientists-estimate-the-number-of-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-the-galaxy/ "But as it is, the Drake equation is fundamentally 'unsolvable' and contains a major variable we can't know until we find intelligent life: What's the average length of time alien civilizations are detectable?" This is just one of the major variables we don't know. Solving an equation when you don't know what values to put in it is at best a waste of time and at worst a way to mislead people. It's like a crook investor who "guarantees" a 20% return on your investment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bison Posted June 17, 2020 #23 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Dr. Frank Drake never intended his famous equation to provide firm answers. This was understood from the start. Various persons have gotten widely varying answers from it, using figures for the variables which the preferred. The Drake equation was devised to provoke thinking about the issues involved. It has certainly succeeded in that. It has also spurred thinking about how the equation could be modified to deal with newly-conceived factors, which Dr. Drake did not consider, such as territorial expansion of species from their home worlds to others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leon G Posted June 17, 2020 #24 Share Posted June 17, 2020 (edited) Calling numbers on how many civilizations there could be in the universe, is wet work at best. First of all we still have no clue whatsoever on our own evolution as humans. Think of the missing link for instance which is still not solved. Secondly and I do not remember who actually made that docu anymore. The chances of evolution going towards being a species that is intelligent enough to evolve towards space travel are enormously small. Factor in the time how long that species planet exists and how fast it evolves. Measure in the chance of some natural catastrophe on that planet, like we had the meteor impact which created the Big Bang, or something like the year 536 BC. So saying the possibility is that there are 30 civilizations could be right, but maybe those other 29 besides us are even less evolved than us. For all we know they are still in a section of life we can compare with the time dinosaurs still lived here. Or those other species are more evolved than us but because of the distance between us and there planet takes so long to travel that it is almost impossible to have contact with each other. Then again even this, and it is likely, is still conjecture at best. Edited June 17, 2020 by Leon G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XenoFish Posted June 17, 2020 #25 Share Posted June 17, 2020 I'd say there are zero signs of intelligent life in the milky way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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