Covid 'Progress'?

[bee]

6 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

The logic being that if everyone wears a mask, everyone's protected. In other words, I protect you, you protect me.

 

only to SLOW DOWN the spread..... (so the hospitals and medical facilities can cope with those suffering complication - the small % )

you can't stop it...

if you haven't already had it you will get it sooner or later... you might have had it already and be one of those that has such mild symptoms you didn't know -

 

 

[+Desertrat56]

11 minutes ago, bee said:

and we have to keep in mind that only a very small % are going to have really serious complications - in terms of the whole population...

Which is why we have to keep the contagion slow so that our hospitals don't get overloaded like they were in NYC and other overly large cities around the world. 

[Jerry Gallo]

47 minutes ago, Doug1029 said:

Judicial Watch is not a scientific publication.  If you want factual information on physical phenomena, such as covid, then peer-reviewed journals are the gold standard.

I can prove that climate change is happening here in Oklahoma and has been happening since at least 1904.  JW presents no evidence whatever to support its viewpoint.  I, on the other hand, will send you a pre-publication copy of my paper if you send me your email address (It's in Word.).  My evidence are the weather records for Oklahoma going back to July 1, 1824.  I am missing only the Signal Corps data from Ft. Reno and Ft, Supply.

My funding comes ultimately from the US Forest Service.  I can study pretty-much anything I want as long as it pertains to trees.  Climate change pertains to trees.

I have spent quite a bit of time tracking down know-nothing articles referenced by people here on UM.  That's usually a waste of time.  Please see that your references are from credible sources.  ALWAYS GO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL SOURCE.  That gets you away from spin doctors, misquotes and outright false quotes.  Don't tell me what JW said; tell me what the NIH and Senate said.  And if they're not the original source of that information, track down their references and see what they said.  If you conclude it's false, then show how you reached that conclusion.

Any publication with a political slant is best not used as a source.  That includes both left and right.

Doug

The article was on scientists, not science. If Trump fires your boss, I don't need to read a peer reviewed science journal to find out your boss was fired or why. 

Is your article peer-reviewed and public? You dismiss JW because they are Conservative. I dismiss you because you are funded by gov't and have a self-perpetuated conflict of interest, because you don't even acknowledge half of what I typed to address the warts of the scientists found to be less than honest. As I see it, you are the left wing version of JW in this conversation.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

12 minutes ago, bee said:

if you don't consider aspects like that then you are not understanding the wider implications and bigger picture... and frankly it's naive to react like you just did...

The wider implications are simple: more deaths. To suggest that mask wearing is a form of oppression and forced comformity is not only paranoid, it's downright silly

9 minutes ago, bee said:

only to SLOW DOWN the spread..... (so the hospitals and medical facilities can cope with those suffering complication - the small % )

you can't stop it...

if you haven't already had it you will get it sooner or later... you might have had it already and be one of those that has such mild symptoms you didn't know -

This is a good article on how COVID could be contained and possibly stopped, based on what we've learned from past epidemics.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-could-end1/

I haven't the time to summarise atm, but it's not a long read anyway.

[bee]

 

well I co operated and went along with all the government guidelines even though I'm pretty sure I had it in Dec. and have a level of immunity...

My Mom is still in Lockdown in her Care Home - but even when she was put in isolation within the home because she did a cough when the doctor was on skype.... I wasn't really worried because I think she and all the residents and staff there had it at the end of last year... and when she was tested and the test came back negative  it was what I expected...

In retrospect it was a good thing they all had it (IMO) before the fear factor really got going and hyped up to the rafters..

and if I had had this year what I had in December I would have been a lot more worried than I was... I knew I was pretty ill with something a bit weird but I just got better on my own and didn't involve the doctor..

anyway.... enough of me and my Mom...  

 

 

[bee]

2 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

The wider implications are simple: more deaths. To suggest that mask wearing is a form of oppression and forced comformity is not only paranoid, it's downright silly

It could been seen as an aspect of it - like the obligatory face coverings that some women are made to wear for religious reasons... and to show submission -
wearing a mask or face covering is - well - really in your face...... obscuring normal contact and we rely so much on reading expressions and micro expressions... I suppose eyes crinkling up indicates a smile... but it's not the same as seeing a smile..  

clearly you don't get the wider implications of this whole Coronavirus Thing... and the potential psychological + political aspects / agenda...

 

[Kittens Are Jerks]

1 minute ago, bee said:

It could been seen as an aspect of it - like the obligatory face coverings that some women are made to wear for religious reasons... and to show submission -
wearing a mask or face covering is - well - really in your face...... obscuring normal contact and we rely so much on reading expressions and micro expressions... I suppose eyes crinkling up indicates a smile... but it's not the same as seeing a smile..  

clearly you don't get the wider implications of this whole Coronavirus Thing... and the potential psychological + political aspects / agenda...

No Bee. It's nothing like obligatory face coverings for religious purposes. It's a temporary measure to mitigate a pandemic. That's it, that's all.

[bee]

4 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

No Bee. It's nothing like obligatory face coverings for religious purposes. It's a temporary measure to mitigate a pandemic. That's it, that's all.

 

and the nasty virus was banished forever and they all lived happily ever after.... 

 

 

 

til the next one came along...... 

 

 

 

[Hankenhunter]

2 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

So you dismiss anything and anyone who doesn't agree with you? Doesn't sound very sciency to me. In fact, if you or your research receive a penny of compensation or funding from government sources, the dismissal of any source of info added to that fact makes you more suspect than JW. And frankly, this isn't even about climate, it's about the continual dishonesty from those we're told to trust. It's about behavior, credibility and character. 

Within the article I posted, JW links to the NIH investigation, a Senate report and a couple other legit links that you would miss by dismissing them. Hence, it's a very simple deal...explain how and why people who lie, manipulate, and gain financially should be trusted and how does the public differentiate between the crooked scientists and those who haven't been exposed (yet)? It's all quite simple...mostly liberal cause directed punitively at mostly non-liberals, whose participants would be out of jobs if it's proven there is nothing to worry about. Add that to the message board phenomenon you displayed above, that's the trifecta of non-credibility for me. 

 

Youre blocked. You've done nothing but fabricate, obfuscate, disingenuate, and denigrate. You link to far right websites, then crap on our links. Bye, bye.

[Doug1029]

2 hours ago, bee said:

 

take a look at the Twitter link and the work they do..... it's real

and when it comes to (man made) Climate Change (that you mentioned earlier ) not everyone believes the Official Narrative about it because like Coronavirus the whole subject is highly politicized... and constantly demands conformity... (and money)...

but I don't want to set you off on that subject because it's off topic 

 

The topic is the reliability of Judicial Watch as a source of information.  When it comes to climate change, they are flat out wrong.  That reflects very poorly on their abilities in other areas.

Doug

[Jerry Gallo]

13 hours ago, Doug1029 said:

The topic is the reliability of Judicial Watch as a source of information.  When it comes to climate change, they are flat out wrong.  That reflects very poorly on their abilities in other areas.

Doug

The topic is credibility of those giving their opinion or passing along information we deem interesting. Your continual bashing of JW is greatly diminishing yours, as the only evidence you've provided is your claim they are flat out wrong. And you've ignored requests for response on the reliability and credibility of your scientists' questionable actions including but not limited to:

Lying to the public, asking the liars to delete e-mails, claiming the information that can disprove the lies can't be found, and then telling people they didn't lie, it's just that their conclusions rely on what the definition of "is" is.

Adjusting temperature data to fit the narrative.

The failed prophecy of doom and the continual predictive dates of extinction that seem to change with the daily weather. Al Gore replaced with AOC and Greta as spokesmodel, message is roughly the same.

The lack of admission that even if the US were perfect in their control of factors that might contribute to climate change, China and India represent one third of the world population and outnumber the US at a rate of 8.4x. So no matter what we do here, it's a small fraction of what is necessary IF needed at all. And we know China would double their emissions if it meant putting the screws to anyone standing in their way of controlling the world economy.

The lack of admission that we have clearly done something to improve our impact on the environment for at least a quarter century and yet, there seems to have been no impact of those efforts if we're still warming at alarming and dangerous levels as if the modified behavior never occurred.

This is the third ask...I know the first rule of sales is to never, ever focus on the negative of your product, but at some point, the buyer is going to demand it.

 

[Doug1029]

2 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

The topic is credibility of those giving their opinion or passing along information we deem interesting. Your continual bashing of JW is greatly diminishing yours, as the only evidence you've provided is your claim they are flat out wrong. And you've ignored requests for response on the reliability and credibility of your scientists' questionable actions including but not limited to:

Lying to the public, asking the liars to delete e-mails, claiming the information that can disprove the lies can't be found, and then telling people they didn't lie, it's just that their conclusions rely on what the definition of "is" is.

Adjusting temperature data to fit the narrative.

The failed prophecy of doom and the continual predictive dates of extinction that seem to change with the daily weather. Al Gore replaced with AOC and Greta as spokesmodel, message is roughly the same.

The lack of admission that even if the US were perfect in their control of factors that might contribute to climate change, China and India represent one third of the world population and outnumber the US at a rate of 8.4x. So no matter what we do here, it's a small fraction of what is necessary IF needed at all. And we know China would double their emissions if it meant putting the screws to anyone standing in their way of controlling the world economy.

The lack of admission that we have clearly done something to improve our impact on the environment for at least a quarter century and yet, there seems to have been no impact of those efforts if we're still warming at alarming and dangerous levels as if the modified behavior never occurred.

This is the third ask...I know the first rule of sales is to never, ever focus on the negative of your product, but at some point, the buyer is going to demand it.

 

The nice thing about science is that it's repeatable.  If I conduct a study, you don't have to take my word for the results.  You can repeat it and see if you get the same results.  But explaining what I did is a long discussion.  If you want to know, let's start a new thread.

China is doing more to control greenhouse emissions than we are.  They have the world's largest workforce dedicated to conversion to clean energy.  They have built more windmills and solar collectors than we have.  The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest hydroelectric system.

So what have we done in the last quarter-century?  In Oklahoma we built 31 wind farms and have licensed five more.  The US has gone from zero percent of our power generated by wind to 14%.  Wind and water generate 25% of our energy.  All that adds up to npot nearly enough.

So why has that not made a difference?  Reducing pollution has little to do with removal of CO2 already in the air.  Eventually we will probably have to remove it, but the technology isn't there yet.

Most of your comments require lengthy explanations and/or refutation.  Lets start a separate thread.

Doug

[Jerry Gallo]

4 minutes ago, Doug1029 said:

The nice thing about science is that it's repeatable.  If I conduct a study, you don't have to take my word for the results.  You can repeat it and see if you get the same results.  But explaining what I did is a long discussion.  If you want to know, let's start a new thread.

China is doing more to control greenhouse emissions than we are.  They have the world's largest workforce dedicated to conversion to clean energy.  They have built more windmills and solar collectors than we have.  The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest hydroelectric system.

So what have we done in the last quarter-century?  In Oklahoma we built 31 wind farms and have licensed five more.  The US has gone from zero percent of our power generated by wind to 14%.  Wind and water generate 25% of our energy.  All that adds up to npot nearly enough.

So why has that not made a difference?  Reducing pollution has little to do with removal of CO2 already in the air.  Eventually we will probably have to remove it, but the technology isn't there yet.

Most of your comments require lengthy explanations and/or refutation.  Lets start a separate thread.

Doug

No need for that, you still choose to focus on the science to sell. You've answered none of the questions and this is the third time. Take care sir, wish you the best on your paper being published...sincerely!

[Jerry Gallo]

Mistakenly!

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-02/error-led-to-overcount-of-coronavirus-testing-in-orange-county

[ChrLzs]

20 minutes ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Mistakenly!

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-02/error-led-to-overcount-of-coronavirus-testing-in-orange-county

And they fixed it...  Shall we put up the current corrected Californication graphs, or do you need to jump to some other distraction?

From YOUR link (did you actually read it?):

Quote

The county has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases among the state’s 58 counties and the fourth most deaths, according to Los Angeles Times data.
On Thursday, county health officials reported 652 additional coronavirus cases and nine more deaths. The numbers bring the total case count in the county to 15,065 and the death toll to 354. Officials also reported that 556 people were being hospitalized for the virus with 193 in intensive care.
On Wednesday, county officials announced the closure of bars, pubs, breweries and brewpubs that do not offer dine-in meals. Less than two hours after the county issued its new order, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that Orange County — along with 18 other counties — must immediately close bars and cease indoor operations at restaurants, wineries and tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and card rooms.

Yep, sounds like everything is coming along nicely.  BTW, what's the weather like in Russia, Jerry?

[Jerry Gallo]

More misleading!

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/data-suggest-floridas-record-breaking-coronavirus-days-may-have-been-0?amp&__twitter_impression=true

[Doug1029]

On 7/6/2020 at 2:46 PM, Jerry Gallo said:

The article was on scientists, not science. If Trump fires your boss, I don't need to read a peer reviewed science journal to find out your boss was fired or why. 

Is your article peer-reviewed and public? You dismiss JW because they are Conservative. I dismiss you because you are funded by gov't and have a self-perpetuated conflict of interest, because you don't even acknowledge half of what I typed to address the warts of the scientists found to be less than honest. As I see it, you are the left wing version of JW in this conversation.

I have published two officially peer-reviewed articles as lead author and three more as a co-author.  I have also published 14 articles that were not peer-reviewed but appeared in proceedings where they have been reviewed by 1.  all my co-authors (some of whom are peer-reviewers) and 2.  the proceedings editor(s).  I have also published 17 chronologies, something unique to dendrochronology; these are reviewed by NCDC before being made available to the public.

My Oklahoma climate-change article has already appeared as an abstract for the (now online) Ecological Society of America convention in August.  It will be presented as a PowerPoint at the Convention.  Following the convention I plan to rewrite it for publication in a professional journal (peer-reviewed).  Following that, I will add tree ring data and extend the analysis back to 1445 AD, maybe earlier; this also will be a peer-reviewed paper.

I have some ideas for similar papers, but must await the day when covid is no longer a threat so I can safely access my lab.  In the meantime I am working on a Technical Report on correcting for plot slopover in forest and agricultural inventories, as well as a series of articles about various aspects of the topic.

 

I do not dismiss JW because it is conservative, but because it does not get the science right.  They do not bother looking up the science articles and so just pass along mistakes, some of their own and some they got from other publications that didn't do their research, either.

 

If you want to discuss the problems of science, I would be glad to discuss them with you.  But we will need to address specific cases.  Sweeping general statements are impossible either to support or dismiss.  Mistakes often get past peer-reviewers, but outright fraud like you suggest is very rare.  What is more common is people misquoting research articles for their own purposes.  That's why we will go back to the original article so our discussion is not contaminated by hearsay and deliberate misquoting/misrepresentation.

Doug

[Doug1029]

7 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Mistakenly!

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-02/error-led-to-overcount-of-coronavirus-testing-in-orange-county

Just one thought:  these were not scientists doing the testing.

Doug

[Doug1029]

5 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

More misleading!

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/data-suggest-floridas-record-breaking-coronavirus-days-may-have-been-0?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Did you read the article?  Infection rates there are rising, just as predicted.

I would not completely trust figures released by politicians of any persuasion as they are cherry-picking surveys to support their own preconceived notions.  Even our most-reliable covid surveys are probably under-estimating the actual number of cases by about 50%.

Doug

Edited July 11, 2020 by Doug1029

[Jarocal]

4 minutes ago, Doug1029 said:

Just one thought:  these were not scientists doing the testing.

Doug

It isn't scientists who do the majority of Audobon bird counts each year yet those numbers are used by scientists in their research for peer reviewed papers. Not being a smartass, just wondering what margin of error a scientist using those tabulations would attribute when compiling their research.

[Doug1029]

27 minutes ago, Jarocal said:

It isn't scientists who do the majority of Audobon bird counts each year yet those numbers are used by scientists in their research for peer reviewed papers. Not being a smartass, just wondering what margin of error a scientist using those tabulations would attribute when compiling their research.

You use the data you have available.  Mistakes get made and are fixed as they are discovered.  That appears to be what happened here.  I always considered this to be sort of iffy, but when you analyze results, they are remarkably consistent from year to year.

 

As an example:  I have just finished cleaning the tree ring datasets for Oklahoma.  Some mistakes made by one of the big names in dendrochronology include:

1.  One chronology contains a complete second set of tree ring series.  This falsely increases the intercorrelation between series.

2.  Same researcher:  two more chronologies contain many repeated series, but not complete series.  Same problem with intercorrelation.

3.  False rings get counted as true rings and some missing rings are not accounted for.  This usually screws up the particular tree's intercorrelation with the rest of the chronology.  If you can find the mistake, you can sometimes fix it, but often you just have to delete a few years, or even the entire series.

 

There are endless problems with mistakes and finding and fixing them is part of every scientist's everyday life.

Doug

[ChrLzs]

Interesting factoid - last time Dr Fauci was allowed to give advice to Cadet Bonespurs on Covid-19 was May 13.  Here's what the US's position looks like NOW compared to then.......

Can anyone spot the problem?

BTW, I see Atlanta is (the first state?) to defy Trump's 'opening up' recommendations. and given an onslaught of new cases they are now backtracking to extensive lockdowns.

All this while Trump speaks on how well the US is going with "the flu" (it's NOT influenza), from Florida ... which is currently leading the world in increasing cases...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyA3eg7D2wM

 

But Good News, Merkans - Trump was seen wearing a mask!!!!!!!!!!  Miracle!!!!  He's such a brilliant role model and responds so quickly.....

[Tatetopa]

If this were the zombie apocalypse, I get the feeling some folks  would argue that it is their right to infect other people if they want to because this is a free country.   Then the apocalypse supporting politicians would argue that we don't know its always fatal if a zombie eats your brain and we should just get back to work.

Kinda of a joke, but if this was a drill for a more serious pandemic we would be screwed.

Can't believe the government.

Can't believe scientists,

Precautions are an imposition on my freedom, seems to be the attitude.

I guess you might look around the world and see who did well and who did poorly and guess who will come out better next time too.

 

[Tatetopa]

6 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

But Good News, Merkans - Trump was seen wearing a mask!!!!!!!!!!  Miracle!!!!  He's such a brilliant role model and responds so quickly.....

Might have been just to hide the slack-jawed drooling.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

25 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Might have been just to hide the slack-jawed drooling.

If that was the case, it worked! 

He wore it. Took it off and carelessly handled both sides of it with his fingers. 

What an incredible role model (said no one ever).