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ChrLzs

Covid 'Progress'?

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Desertrat56
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Our countries' responses to the pandemic stand in marked contrast to the political partisanship there in the US. The partisan consensus and extensive cooperation between all levels of our governments speak to a prioritisation of the health and well-being of its citizens and a regard for human life.

So whilst we may be boring, we're the furthest thing from 'awful'.

So everyone in the whole country is happy with your government all the time?  Even when you can't get alcohol strips for your daily injections or you have to ask permission to travel to see your doctor in the next state over and then are housebound for 2 weeks quarantine when you return home with no help getting supplies unless you have friends or relatives who can drop stuff off when you need it?  Not to mention the problem of finding a place to stay over night when you get to the city your doctor is in.

Edited by Desertrat56

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Tatetopa
11 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

The reason it is difficult to use coronavirus statistics to make a political point is that there are way too many variables that do not correlate with the point being made. And we know for a fact that the official counts are manipulated. For example, using cumulative numbers, new records are not that significant. One extra case or hospitalization tomorrow sets a new record, but is one alarming?

The more pertinent question to ask if you are really concerned about health of people in the US is, why are states like WA, CA, TX, and AZ seeing a spike in cases and hospitalizations. WA has their anarchist camp...related? CA still has some of the most strict rules in place and they are spiking...are masking and isolation as effective as we're told? CA, TX, and AZ are warming up and we were told such a thing would be helpful, yet the opposite seems true lately. Why?

It is the same as using the economy.  That one is also subject to manipulation and way too many variables.  Both parties pick and groom numbers to tell the story they want to tell. You can say they are true facts, or True Hyperboles if you want, but like any sales job, not a useful picture of what is happening.

I will tell you this about Ca and Wa  at least, they went wild.  I had facebook pictures from friends and relatives crowded at beaches and clubs and parks with little use of masks or social distancing.  That went on for a couple of weeks and gave a good boost to spreading.  Cannon Beach Oregon was spoil sport by comparison,  They told tourists to wear masks and maintain distances or get out of town.  Oregon still had a resurgence.

It was mostly the non-doctor in chief floating that idea that this would just disappear when hot weather came.  As you say, there are a lot of factors.  Crowds without masks probably overcome the beneficial effect of warm weather.

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, Michelle said:

I don't know where these idiots get their ideas. Grocery and other stores have people counting how many people come in and leave. Places requiring masks.

I went to the local big grocery store today.  My friend the produce manager told me they are working a lot of overtime because so many employees tested positive.  They are having a big problem on the shelf stocking crews, younger lower paid folks who may not come back when they get well. He said a few are pretty sick, but most just have to wait out their 2 week quarantine.  Most customers are wearing masks now, it has been increasing.  Last week I got hit up by a guy my age telling me it was stupid for people as old as us to wear masks.  I tried to explain that wearing a mast was so we didn't  give it to other people, but he thought that was just sheep talk.  This store even has a couple of morning hours supposedly set aside for seniors, but after going once it seemed pointless.  Too many younger people crowding in to take advantage of what they thought would be less crowded.

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Kittens Are Jerks
Just now, Desertrat56 said:

So everyone in the whole country is happy with your government all the time?  Even when you can't get alcohol strips for your daily injections or you have to ask permission to travel to see your doctor in the next state over and then are housebound for 2 weeks quarantine with no help getting supplies unless you have friends or relatives who can drop stuff off when you need it?

We have access to whatever we need medically. If the pharmacy happens to be all out temporarily, they will find a way of getting it for you (calling suppliers, other pharmacies, etc.). If it's urgent, your primary medical provider will give you whatever you need, as will a hospital. And you don't need permission to travel to see your doctor, although I don't understand why anyone would want to make the trip if they were a distance away as medical doctors are available to them wherever they might be at the moment. As for being quarantined with no one to bring you supplies, there are numerous support agencies/organisations that will have a volunteer do your shopping for you. And most important, we don't have to worry about ever having to pay for medical treatment. Getting the support and supplies you need is easy. All you have to do is ask.

So whilst we have little to complain about, we still complain. No one's happy with their government all the time, but that wasn't my point to begin with.

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spartan max2
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

It is the same as using the economy.  That one is also subject to manipulation and way too many variables.  Both parties pick and groom numbers to tell the story they want to tell. You can say they are true facts, or True Hyperboles if you want, but like any sales job, not a useful picture of what is happening.

I will tell you this about Ca and Wa  at least, they went wild.  I had facebook pictures from friends and relatives crowded at beaches and clubs and parks with little use of masks or social distancing.  That went on for a couple of weeks and gave a good boost to spreading.  Cannon Beach Oregon was spoil sport by comparison,  They told tourists to wear masks and maintain distances or get out of town.  Oregon still had a resurgence.

It was mostly the non-doctor in chief floating that idea that this would just disappear when hot weather came.  As you say, there are a lot of factors.  Crowds without masks probably overcome the beneficial effect of warm weather.

You think 22 years old are going to the beach because Trump said the heat might kill Covid ? 

That's silly man. 

Edited by spartan max2
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susieice
9 hours ago, Piney said:

Yup, and we have the highest number of cases in the Northeast.

The kids in the Ultra Orthodox Jewish communities, who have the highest number of cases in New Jersey and are also anti-vaxxers are gathering in large numbers to protest the lack of summer camp.

I actually think the parents put them up to it.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/06/lakewoods-kids-are-fighting-for-camp-as-coronavirus-squeezes-summer-plans.html

.....and in Brooklyn.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/orthodox-kids-take-to-brooklyn-streets-in-summer-camp-protest/2458961/

We just found out tonight. Our first increase in a long time. I hope this doesn't become steady.

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ChrLzs
36 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

It annoys me, and I have expressed this before, you all sitting thousands of miles away making judgements on our government, people and president

Why?  May I suggest it is embarrassment?  Or perhaps just an unwillingness to learn?

I've heard this lament before, that Australia is not comparable..  And yes, there are differences, but we still have rates that are HUNDREDs of times less than yours, EVEN after taking into account the relative populations.  I think we have far more in common than you think.

And if I saw differences of that magnitude, instead of telling others to butt out, I'd spend the time to listen.  And gven the fact that this attitude oft seems to relate to justifying the ridiculous stance of your politicians, and the incredibly bad example they are setting, I think it's time you woke up.  Anyway, if everything is fine over there, just move on and ignore stupid threads like this...

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susieice
6 hours ago, spud the mackem said:

This is exactly what is happening in England , although not Scotland ,  Wales ,or Nth Ireland , the P.M  is easing all far to soon , the beaches are a mass of humanity ,the stupid ones that is , even the Super Markets are letting in more people ,and people are queuing outside but once through the doors they go manic , making it harder to shop without some person breathing down your neck, I'm still isolating , its the 84th day living on my boat , I guess that I'm turning into a Hermit  . 

I just saw this spud. Yeap. Stay in and stay safe.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-dorset-53176717?fbclid=IwAR22fJebAEb4NJU1GgO3JtkPcAmrm7XMJao6Z1W9HQrKp6ice6QCD65hR2Y

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spartan max2
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

Why?  May I suggest it is embarrassment?  Or perhaps just an unwillingness to learn?

I've heard this lament before, that Australia is not comparable..  And yes, there are differences, but we still have rates that are HUNDREDs of times less than yours, EVEN after taking into account the relative populations.  I think we have far more in common than you think.

And if I saw differences of that magnitude, instead of telling others to butt out, I'd spend the time to listen.  And gven the fact that this attitude oft seems to relate to justifying the ridiculous stance of your politicians, and the incredibly bad example they are setting, I think it's time you woke up.  Anyway, if everything is fine over there, just move on and ignore stupid threads like this...

Relative populations...

Australia population 26 million

Austrailia land Area: 7,682,300 sq km

 

United State populations 331 million. 

U.S land area: 9,147,593 sq km

 

Population density:

Quote

The country’s land territory is the sixth largest in the world at 7.692 square kilometres. When measuring the population against its land area, Australia has one of the lowest densities in the world.  

 

Compared with the population density of other countries such as that of the United States, which is 31.27 persons per square kilometre, Australia has only 2.66 persons/km2. It also has a lower density than Canada’s 3.3 persons /km2, New Zealand’s 15.37 persons/ km2, and the United Kingdom’s 248.25 persons/ km2.

https://www.spacer.com.au/blog/population-density-how-does-australia-compare-to-the-rest-of-the-world

 

I do not think I need to spell out these conclusions to everyone, but to put simply, the U.S has more people living in metropolises, urban centers, and tourist destination then Australia. So even if we measure cases by per million it still makes sense the U.S is going to have more spread then Australia. 

Also, Australia is an island, so easier to isolate people coming in. For example, if you look at Hawaii they have kept things very low. 

Edited by spartan max2
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ChrLzs
6 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Relative populations...

Australia population 26 million

Austrailia land Area: 7,682,300 sq km

 

United State populations 331 million. 

U.S land area: 9,147,593 sq km

 

Population density:

https://www.spacer.com.au/blog/population-density-how-does-australia-compare-to-the-rest-of-the-world

 

I do not think I need to spell out these conclusions to everyone, but to put simply, the U.S has more people living in metropolises, urban centers, and tourist destination then Australia. So even if we measure cases by per million it still makes sense the U.S is going to have more spread then Australia. 

Also, Australia is an island, so easier to isolate people coming in. For example, if you look at Hawaii they have kept things very low. 

So you are claiming that the dichotomy, of 100x or more, is entirely due to those issues?  I'd be most interested to see the mathematics - if you are going to debate statistics, then a handwave without any attempt to give a measurement of the effect is of rather dubious use.

It is quite clear that there are those here interested in discussing, and those who simply wish to offer excuses and justifications, but not in a measurable way..  Do I also notice a correlation in the political leanings of the latter group..?

Nah.  :D 

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Tatetopa

 

1 hour ago, spartan max2 said:

You think 22 years old are going to the beach because Trump said the heat might kill Covid ? 

That's silly man. 

Not for a moment, that would be silly man.  I was 22 once too.  If I was stir crazy, healthy, horny, and lonely, I would want to head for the beach too.  After all,, YOLO.  Most young people do not spend their summer worrying about Trump or any other politician.

The reason I mentioned Trump, which you bolded,  is because Jerry thought we were told summer would help.

13 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

CA, TX, and AZ are warming up and we were told such a thing would be helpful, yet the opposite seems true lately. Why?

 

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spartan max2
39 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

So you are claiming that the dichotomy, of 100x or more, is entirely due to those issues?  I'd be most interested to see the mathematics - if you are going to debate statistics, then a handwave without any attempt to give a measurement of the effect is of rather dubious use.

It is quite clear that there are those here interested in discussing, and those who simply wish to offer excuses and justifications, but not in a measurable way..  Do I also notice a correlation in the political leanings of the latter group..?

Nah.  :D 

I never said those factors "entirely" explain the situation. The U.S could of improved in it's response, sure. 

I think is it fairly obvious that this plays a role though.

Quote

Compared with the population density of other countries such as that of the United States, which is 31.27 persons per square kilometre, Australia has only 2.66 persons/km2.

Many states have done similar responses as Australia but still have cases because there are way more factors in play then you seem to suggest. 

 

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Jerry Gallo
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

It is the same as using the economy.  That one is also subject to manipulation and way too many variables.  Both parties pick and groom numbers to tell the story they want to tell. You can say they are true facts, or True Hyperboles if you want, but like any sales job, not a useful picture of what is happening.

I will tell you this about Ca and Wa  at least, they went wild.  I had facebook pictures from friends and relatives crowded at beaches and clubs and parks with little use of masks or social distancing.  That went on for a couple of weeks and gave a good boost to spreading.  Cannon Beach Oregon was spoil sport by comparison,  They told tourists to wear masks and maintain distances or get out of town.  Oregon still had a resurgence.

It was mostly the non-doctor in chief floating that idea that this would just disappear when hot weather came.  As you say, there are a lot of factors.  Crowds without masks probably overcome the beneficial effect of warm weather.

Unemployment and the value of a middle class IRA or 401k are pretty good indicators as far as I am concerned.

It was never a shock to me that NJ, NYC, and southwestern CT got it as bad as they did...mass transit every day in winter before people even knew about it. But public beaches in warm weather from a bunch of infected people who were restricted for two months? Not plausible.

And it was the experts, not Trump, who originally said the warm weather would help.

Edited by Jerry Gallo
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Jerry Gallo
2 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

I went to the local big grocery store today.  My friend the produce manager told me they are working a lot of overtime because so many employees tested positive.  They are having a big problem on the shelf stocking crews, younger lower paid folks who may not come back when they get well. He said a few are pretty sick, but most just have to wait out their 2 week quarantine.  Most customers are wearing masks now, it has been increasing.  Last week I got hit up by a guy my age telling me it was stupid for people as old as us to wear masks.  I tried to explain that wearing a mast was so we didn't  give it to other people, but he thought that was just sheep talk.  This store even has a couple of morning hours supposedly set aside for seniors, but after going once it seemed pointless.  Too many younger people crowding in to take advantage of what they thought would be less crowded.

Most customers are just now starting to wear masks? It's just now increasing? What the hell were people doing the last two months when most of the country was installing plexi-glass walls in checkout aisles, directing flow of customers, limiting customers, and denying entry altogether without a mask? No wonder there are still so many infected people out there to spread the virus. 

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ChrLzs

And to be specific about numbers, here's what Spartan posted, but let's add in the Covid numbers..

1 hour ago, spartan max2 said:

Relative populations...
Australia population 26 million
Austrailia land Area: 7,682,300 sq km

United State populations 331 million. 
U.S land area: 9,147,593 sq km

From that, Australia has a pop density of around 3.5 persons/sqkm and the US has about 37 persons/sqkm.  In other words our population density is about 11x less.  Or if you prefer to just compare populations, we have about 13x less people.

So, how do the Covid numbers compare?
We have 308x less cases.
We have 1,163x less deaths.

So, even taking into account population or population density, that leaves about 30x (or 100x in terms of deaths) to be explained by *other* 'differences' - some of which, like tourism, are no longer a factor, given the international airline restrictions...

Sure, this stuff is complicated, some of it is non-linear, etc, etc.  But I am of the view that political incompetence has caused a significant amount of that dichotomy.  Here's the charts (the vertical scales are NOT comparable, obviously) - see if you can spot the problem in the US, and also how quickly Australia responded...

Australia:
Aus_June25.jpg.ab044cf9a700e22e0bf24f10e50a8aad.jpg

US:
US_June25.jpg.0185d2b2ba5f95e440c3538cb83e47f7.jpg

 


 

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Tatetopa
4 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Most customers are just now starting to wear masks? It's just now increasing? What the hell were people doing the last two months when most of the country was installing plexi-glass walls in checkout aisles, directing flow of customers, limiting customers, and denying entry altogether without a mask? No wonder there are still so many infected people out there to spread the virus. 

You seem so shocked.  Do you not observe similar numbers?

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likwidlite
20 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Duncan, the reason the so called Second wave isn't a problem is because it isn't here yet. All the current spikes in infections are still part of the original First Wave of infections. The comments you are making are completely incorrect, today alone a number of states had the highest daily infections rates they ever had, as afar as the CFR falling your are totally wrong, I really don't understand where you get your information from, but I suppose you must get it from FOX News. I hope some day you can drop the Party Line and focus on what is really happening, oh and by the way your state is one of those states reporting the highest daily infection rate they have ever seen, so be safe Duncan.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882678364/dr-fauci-discusses-recent-covid-19-spikes-in-several-states

Peace Oh and by the way Duncan your State had the highest daily spike in cases it has ever had yesterday, it Spiked at over 1300 reported cases, so how can you say the CFR is going down Duncan.

Who's Duncan?

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ChrLzs
21 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

You seem so shocked.  Do you not observe similar numbers?

Indeed, and the latest from NEWS.COM.AU:

Quote

US sets one-day record for COVID-19 cases
Daily deaths, hospitalisations and the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests have been rising in parts of the US, sparking fears of a second wave.  The governor of Texas has temporarily halted the state's reopening as COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations surged and the US set a new record for a one-day increase in cases.  Texas, which has been at the forefront of efforts to reopen devastated economies shut down in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, has seen one of the biggest jumps in new cases, reporting more than 6000 in a single day on Monday.
... Texas has also set record hospitalisations for 13 days in a row.
... Cases rose across the United States by at least 39,818 on Thursday, the largest one-day increase of the pandemic.
... Also reporting record rises in cases this week were Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wyoming.
... While some of the increased numbers of cases can be attributed to more testing, the percentage of positive results is also climbing.

Oddly, news.com.au is an arm of the Murdoch press, but is often highly critical of Trump.

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Manwon Lender
9 minutes ago, likwidlite said:

Who's Duncan?

He go's by Andthen, hope this helps.

Peace

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likwidlite
10 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

He go's by Andthen, hope this helps.

Peace

Ah, so that's his real name or an in joke I'm not privy to?

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Manwon Lender
5 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

I never said those factors "entirely" explain the situation. The U.S could of improved in it's response, sure. 

I think is it fairly obvious that this plays a role though.

Many states have done similar responses as Australia but still have cases because there are way more factors in play then you seem to suggest. 

 

Hey no disrespect intended, but very very few State Governors have done what it takes to stop the transmission within their States. The two biggest problems are a lack of mandatory testing in Areas where infections are on the rise, and no reliable form of contact tracing. Without mandatory testing and excellent contact tracing there is no chance in hell of getting these situations that are occurring under control. All the countries like South Korea who have put in place plans that have effectively stop person to person spread among their population could be asked for help, if our leaders can not fix these problems, but saying there is no problem will not make anything go away.. Social distancing and wearing masks are also essential in combating this Pandemic, and so long as there is no leadership in Washington DC that is taking control and setting policies that will give Governor's the tools they need to fight this virus, nothing is going to help and in the next few months we could lose another 100,000 lives if things do not change very soon. The problem in all reality is being caused by President Trump personally, because he will do anything to appeal to his political Base, and to keep the economy flowing, no matter the cost in human lives.

So long as he continues to claim that things are not as bad as they really are, and so long as he refuses to wear a mask, others will foolishly play follow the Leader and walk off the same cliff he is taking our Nation towards. He really needs to stop acting like some kind of idiot and start acting the way a President should, because in the end he is our National Leader, and whether he realizes it or not his comments that " This in not my Responsibility " are not working any longer. As more people die, many more are going to blame him for not acting on behalf of the Nation, and more than anything else this Pandemic will be the nail in his Coffin come November. But the real sad thing is that everything we as a Nation are currently experiencing could have been prevented if our Leadership in Washington DC had lead the way, instead of stepping out of the way and shirking their responsibilities for so long.

Peace

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Manwon Lender
36 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

Indeed, and the latest from NEWS.COM.AU:

Oddly, news.com.au is an arm of the Murdoch press, but is often highly critical of Trump.

According to Dr. Fauci and other Senior Medical personnel  we have not even finish going through the first wave yet. So with that said, can you really imagine how bad the Second wave is going to be, if it hits us before the first wave has even finished?:w00t::no: This is where our Leadership in Washington DC is leading us as a Nation, if these people don't wake up, and I mean like yesterday, :angry: America is going to be devastated by the coming serge, I really don't think enough Americans really get how serious things are becoming, and this directly because of President Trump and the Media that preaches his so called doctrine concerning this Pandemic. 

Peace

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Manwon Lender
32 minutes ago, likwidlite said:

Ah, so that's his real name or an in joke I'm not privy to?

No I believe that is his real name, but I don't know if he likes people calling him by it or not, but we have been through a lot both good and bad here on the forum, an I use his name out of respect and nothing else.

Peace

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toast
23 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

...unless one counts these little basic med masks or homemade ones which do absolutely nothing to prevent contracting the disease.

That is not entirely accurate. Of course, these home made + little basic med masks dont fulfil FFP standards to protect the wearer with a level of protection of 99,8% to get infected. But, and thats still not understood by a very big scale of people, masks are not only to protect the wearer but also other people around a person who is infected, dont know about it, but wearing a low level standard mask.

When mask obligation was established here in Germany, IIRC in April, there were no FFP masks available to the public for private persons so the people made them by themselves, manuals were all over the web, and little tailoring shops produced these items and sold them for ca. 5 to 8€.

Since the introduction of the mask obligation, and other precautions and anti-C19 actions, here in my home country we made very good progress and reduced the number of new infected people at a very good extent. Thus, even if home made mask dont comply to FFP standards, they are a useful tool to reduce the number of new C19 cases.

 

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