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ChrLzs

Covid 'Progress'?

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Jerry Gallo
3 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

You seem so shocked.  Do you not observe similar numbers?

I'm unsure of two things here...what state you live in (Oregon?) and which numbers you are asking about. Here's what I can tell you about info I track.

I live in MO...seems like we are the nursing home capital of the world, but I am sure we are not. The reason it seems that way is that our number one issue with the virus and disease (two separate things - many don't realize this) and death were related to nursing homes. Lotta small town nursing homes that are scary how poorly they operate from the standpoint of cleanliness and quality of staff. I happen to work in quite a few in an IT capacity. That said...

MO had their first known case on 3/8/20. Our testing in earnest started 3/28/20. Our peak cumulative test percentage was on 4/23/20 (11.90%), current cumulative test percentage is 6.03%. Our low was 6/19/20 at 5.95%. CA has similar patterns.

OR first known case was on 3/4/20 or before. Their testing in earnest started same. Their peak cumulative test percentage was on 3/8/20 (14.00%), current cumulative test percentage is 3.62%. Their low was 6/6/20 at 3.29%.

NY first known case was on 3/4/20 or before. Their testing in earnest started 3/18/20. Their peak cumulative test percentage was on 4/11/20 (69.27%), current cumulative test percentage is 12.09% which is also their low. NJ, WA, and NM have similar patterns.

TX first known case was on 3/4/20 or before. Their testing in earnest started 3/17/20. Their peak cumulative test percentage was on 4/12/20 (12.14%), current cumulative test percentage is 8.64%. Their low was 6/1/20 at 7.17%. FL has similar patterns.

AZ first known case was on 3/4/20 or before. Their testing in earnest started 3/27/20. Their first peak cumulative test percentage was on 5/2/20 (12.01%), Their low was 5/28/20 at 9.59%. The anomaly with AZ is that their current cumulative test percentage is a new high at 15.71% and has climbed steadily almost daily since 5/28.

That's all the states I have time to track due to work requirements.

So, MO has seen a slight uptick, but negligible. This after we re-opened and after the party cove pool pics that made world news for a day. As you can see, the first hit - WA and the worst hit, NY and NJ, are not experiencing spikes. MO and CA have negligible spikes so far. Oregon a low spike. TX and FL moderate spikes. Arizona is off the rails. Given this data, I cannot correlate this to human behavior or restriction of said behavior, as that is too similar between these 10 states that have different levels of spike. They say TX spike is related to increased prisoner testing. Some of this may be related to how and why states test. Those dealing with more significant spikes have tested a fewer percentage of residents than those not suffering spikes. In other words...if I proactively test many more folks unlikely to have the virus - kids and the fittest among us and add significantly more negatives, I can deflate spike numbers fairly quickly. I've never made much of total cases, as I don't feel that is a fair reflection. 1000 cases in CA is far different than in MT.

I mentioned the difference between coronavirus and Covid-19, I was and am amazed at how little the media has focused on this on either side. Best analogy...coronavirus is akin to HIV, Covid-19 is akin to AIDS. Cases track coronavirus, death counts track Covid-19. Where it gets real murky is the hospitalizations, ICU and vent info...anecdotally, it seems like although coronavirus is having a resurgence, thus far, it's not progressing to Covid-19 and the ICU, vent and death counts back that up so far.

Now, I freely admit I go a bit tin foil hat on some of this stuff, my justification is the data and manner in which it is complied. We know the CDC told Dr. Quincy types to use probably and maybe on death counts to "give us better perspective". Merle died at home and three weeks prior, his grandson visited with a cough...the grandson probably had the virus, ME concludes maybe Merle contracted the virus, developed Covid and died - count it in the totals. Maybe is better than confirmed fact? We also know the CDC allows four entries from medical examiners on cause of death. In other words, a person has stage four lung cancer, develops pneumonia, then gets coronavirus from a nurse which pushed them into death...it counts as a death FROM Covid versus a death WITH Covid. I also wonder if some states are counting positive anti-body tests as confirmed current cases to "give us a better perspective". We do know some states report everything, some very little. And the quality of the data is not uniform. 

At the end of the day, the constant marrying and exploiting of the pandemic for political purposes has done all Americans a disservice. We know for a fact that the majority of the deaths were folks over 55 and/or were at risk health-wise. Those folks should have followed the strictest of precautions. Next, all others should have quarantined themselves from the at-risk folks. Kids and healthy adults didn't need to avoid other kids and healthy adults. They may have acquired the virus and been asymptomatic or got a little cold-like illness no different than flu season. I stopped with the masks and distancing for the most part in mid-May. But I avoided my mother and followed protocols when it was demanded and did my best to avoid the at-risk. Call me what you like, but I was and am over it. The financial harm it has caused will likely take years to fully overcome. Did it have to be that way? Early on, with the unknowns, I said fine. Now, the pendulum for me has swung to getting back on the horse. It's either going to wipe us out or it isn't. It just doesn't need to bankrupt us in the process. And, given Trump's number one advantage was a seemingly booming economy, while it is lunacy to think the media could create a pandemic for the purpose of tarnishing his advantage, it is 100% certain they would not hesitate to exploit the pandemic to do so. This is where honestly and integrity of the press is so damning to our country. Just as Fox was likely guilty of "nothing to see here" early on, so is the NYT now for all the ! type stories about the spike.   

 

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Desertrat56
14 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

We have access to whatever we need medically. If the pharmacy happens to be all out temporarily, they will find a way of getting it for you (calling suppliers, other pharmacies, etc.). If it's urgent, your primary medical provider will give you whatever you need, as will a hospital. And you don't need permission to travel to see your doctor, although I don't understand why anyone would want to make the trip if they were a distance away as medical doctors are available to them wherever they might be at the moment. As for being quarantined with no one to bring you supplies, there are numerous support agencies/organisations that will have a volunteer do your shopping for you. And most important, we don't have to worry about ever having to pay for medical treatment. Getting the support and supplies you need is easy. All you have to do is ask.

So whilst we have little to complain about, we still complain. No one's happy with their government all the time, but that wasn't my point to begin with.

But it was my point to begin with because you complain about our government and you aren't even here!

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Desertrat56
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

Why?  May I suggest it is embarrassment?  Or perhaps just an unwillingness to learn?

I've heard this lament before, that Australia is not comparable..  And yes, there are differences, but we still have rates that are HUNDREDs of times less than yours, EVEN after taking into account the relative populations.  I think we have far more in common than you think.

And if I saw differences of that magnitude, instead of telling others to butt out, I'd spend the time to listen.  And gven the fact that this attitude oft seems to relate to justifying the ridiculous stance of your politicians, and the incredibly bad example they are setting, I think it's time you woke up.  Anyway, if everything is fine over there, just move on and ignore stupid threads like this...

No, it is arrogance on your part, making judgment based on incomplete facts and supposition.  Yes, our current president is an embarrassment but at least we can get rid of him this year (or if not he only has 4 more years).  It is not for life that he is our representative.  The thing is, he is not the power of the county.  Congress Representatives has to approve anything he does and the Senate has to sign off on it as well.  That is why it takes so long for laws to change. 

Really, I have stated clearly why it bugs me, you all never talk about your politicians as if you don't have any, you talk about our politicians as if they are yours.  Like the old lady across the street looking through the curtains with the binoculars to be sure her neighbors are not doing something wrong, and all the while her husband is in the bedroom with another woman.

You have a bad habit of accusing people of things to deflect your bad behavior, you personally, not Australians.

Edited by Desertrat56
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susieice
Kittens Are Jerks
19 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

But it was my point to begin with because you complain about our government and you aren't even here!

I don't have to be there to complain about your government. Just as I don't have to be in the Middle East, North Korea, Russia or elsewhere to complain about theirs. Furthermore, decisions your government makes often have an impact that extends far beyond its borders. On COVID-related issues, for example, our close proximity has forced the closure of our borders to essential traffic only. Trump even wanted to deploy military troops to secure the border, like as if Canadians were chomping at the bit to embark on a south of the border COVID-suicide mission. And when 3M produced N95 masks for routine export here, your government targeted the company and barred exportation of the masks. That incident was petty and we're over it, but what we're not over is the overwhelmingly appalling way in which your government continues to mitigate the crisis. Granted, governments all over the world have made mistakes, including ours, but none so deliberate and egregious as the ones yours has made, and continues to make.

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Desertrat56
5 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

I don't have to be there to complain about your government. Just as I don't have to be in the Middle East, North Korea, Russia or elsewhere to complain about theirs. Furthermore, decisions your government makes often have an impact that extends far beyond its borders. On COVID-related issues, for example, our close proximity has forced the closure of our borders to essential traffic only. Trump even wanted to deploy military troops to secure the border, like as if Canadians were chomping at the bit to embark on a south of the border COVID-suicide mission. And when 3M produced N95 masks for routine export here, your government targeted the company and barred exportation of the masks. That incident was petty and we're over it, but what we're not over is the overwhelmingly appalling way in which your government continues to mitigate the crisis. Granted, governments all over the world have made mistakes, including ours, but none so deliberate and egregious as the ones yours has made, and continues to make.

Pardon me, if you are in Canada I was not talking to you.  My post was directed at the Australians.  You know what is going on south of your border.  You probably know a lot more about that than I do as I live in the south western part of the country.  I actually thought the Canadians were being smart and closed the border, as we are not dealing with the virus in a reasonable way. 

However, the Australians have been critical of the U.S. yet talk about our president as if he is theirs too for years, not just since the Covid 19 virus.  And we never hear anything about their politics.  Even talk about the queen is not political, just parties for her birthday. 

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Desertrat56
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, susieice said:

I'm still waiting for Florida to break off the continent and float away.  They should not have opened the bars as soon as the did (or, did they never close them?)

Edited by Desertrat56
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CrimsonKing
6 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

I'm still waiting for Florida to break off the continent and float away.  They should not have opened the bars as soon as the did (or, did they never close them?)

No doubt,i was about to post that Florida is like its own deranged little country...i could see Borat running the place :lol:

I lived there for 2 years a lil while back and the crazy never stops,funny thing is Florida has many of the worlds worst drivers,even funnier those drivers all have Georgia tags hahaha

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Tatetopa
5 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

'm unsure of two things here...what state you live in (Oregon?) and which numbers you are asking about.

Hi Jerry, I live in Oregon.  My response was to your comment as you seemed surprised that people were only just now up to 50% mask use.  In this area, some businesses are closed.  Some essential businesses like doctors and hospitals have stringent mask requirements.  Some essential businesses like grocery stores have requirements for employees and suggestions for customers.  Customer use of masks is increasing, but seems at a rough count of customers I see to be between 50%-60%.   Non-mask wearers are varied;  young and old, well dressed and work clothes.  There are still people that will upbraid you for wearing a mask and being a sheep if you happen to make eye contact on the cereal aisle. 

I am responsible for my own well being and that of my family so I take the hand washing and disinfecting surfaces seriously.  I don't want to infect people if I do have it so I wear a mask. 

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CrimsonKing
9 hours ago, toast said:

That is not entirely accurate. Of course, these home made + little basic med masks dont fulfil FFP standards to protect the wearer with a level of protection of 99,8% to get infected. But, and thats still not understood by a very big scale of people, masks are not only to protect the wearer but also other people around a person who is infected, dont know about it, but wearing a low level standard mask.

When mask obligation was established here in Germany, IIRC in April, there were no FFP masks available to the public for private persons so the people made them by themselves, manuals were all over the web, and little tailoring shops produced these items and sold them for ca. 5 to 8€.

Since the introduction of the mask obligation, and other precautions and anti-C19 actions, here in my home country we made very good progress and reduced the number of new infected people at a very good extent. Thus, even if home made mask dont comply to FFP standards, they are a useful tool to reduce the number of new C19 cases.

 

You are correct on the masks reducing spread by already infected people atleast to a degree,i actually knew that i just have to wonder a bit how effective even that is with the amount of touching you see people doing to their masks...as you said though "useful tool" and every little bit helps. :tu:

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Desertrat56
2 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

You are correct on the masks reducing spread by already infected people atleast to a degree,i actually knew that i just have to wonder a bit how effective even that is with the amount of touching you see people doing to their masks...as you said though "useful tool" and every little bit helps. :tu:

That's why I keep a can of hand sanitizer in my car when I am out and about.  Common sense and care for others will go a long way.

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Kittens Are Jerks
1 hour ago, Desertrat56 said:

Pardon me, if you are in Canada I was not talking to you.  My post was directed at the Australians.  You know what is going on south of your border.  You probably know a lot more about that than I do as I live in the south western part of the country.  I actually thought the Canadians were being smart and closed the border, as we are not dealing with the virus in a reasonable way. 

The confusion is all my fault as I decided to put my two cents in where it didn't belong. I also should have known you mistakenly thought I was in Australia when you came after me with the alcohol swabs. I was like WHAT??? :lol:

The border was closed mid-March by the Trump administration. Since then, we've been keeping it closed as we attempt to mitigate the crisis. Only essential traffic is permitted. Ontario (my province) was especially hard hit, so our Premier is adamant that our border with the US remain closed. Americans who want to enter Canada must show evidence that their trip is both essential and non-discretionary and non-optional.

The whole situation has been difficult for both countries. Many of us here have family and friends in the US and are extremely concerned about them. We also have property we can't get to. Not to mention all the great shopping deals we're missing!  But our concern first and foremost is for everyone's safety and the fact that people there are being jerked around from here to Sunday, is extremely troubling.

 

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Desertrat56
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

The confusion is all my fault as I decided to put my two cents in where it didn't belong. I also should have known you mistakenly thought I was in Australia when you came after me with the alcohol swabs. I was like WHAT??? :lol:

The border was closed mid-March by the Trump administration. Since then, we've been keeping it closed as we attempt to mitigate the crisis. Only essential traffic is permitted. Ontario (my province) was especially hard hit, so our Premier is adamant that our border with the US remain closed. Americans who want to enter Canada must show evidence that their trip is both essential and non-discretionary and non-optional.

The whole situation has been difficult for both countries. Many of us here have family and friends in the US and are extremely concerned about them. We also have property we can't get to. Not to mention all the great shopping deals we're missing!  But our concern first and foremost is for everyone's safety and the fact that people there are being jerked around from here to Sunday, is extremely troubling.

 

Well, I guess I can't find a way to immigrate to Canada if Trump wins again.  :lol:  I wouldn't anyway, as I don't like the cold, I love the desert.  But I hope you all will keep the border closed for the next year or more since this is going to take a long time to run it's course.  Arizona is now having the issues with hospitals that New York did in Feb and March.  The governor did not  think it worth while to shut some things down to slow the spread.  There has been a rise in New Mexico again and our governor has been very cautious about reopening businesses.  Just opening them allowing up to 50% capacity and requiring masks has caused an surge in cases.  (well, the prison issue in southern New Mexico increased the number immensely in that whole county).  The states that have shut things down have not done it to stop the virus, but to be sure the hospitals are not overrun.

I hope your property is not in Florida.

Edited by Desertrat56
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CrimsonKing
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

So you are claiming that the dichotomy, of 100x or more, is entirely due to those issues?  I'd be most interested to see the mathematics - if you are going to debate statistics, then a handwave without any attempt to give a measurement of the effect is of rather dubious use.

It is quite clear that there are those here interested in discussing, and those who simply wish to offer excuses and justifications, but not in a measurable way..  Do I also notice a correlation in the political leanings of the latter group..?

Nah.  :D 

I'm not giving excuses,just saying the truth as i've seen it with my own eyes...As for this virus there is no left or right,hell i even agree with you and have said it numerous times,Trump has been Trump and said stupid things about it out of ignorance.

Just based off of my own observations i can tell you,half of the people running around without any precautions are the very people who will turn ANYTHING into a "But Trump" fest.

They aren't and haven't been listening to ANYTHING Trump has said from day 1,as a matter of fact they take pride in doing the exact opposite of anything Trump says lol

I care not about partisan feelings on this,i don't care who's left or right as it doesn't matter on this issue...

Eta

This really is going to hit home in this country in a few months because it's becoming increasingly clear by the day that American football season may just be canceled this year...

I know that sounds stupid too many lol,but that is honestly one of the few things left in this country that a large portion of our citizens can enjoy together...plus the economic impact of a missed college fb season will be absolutely devastating to business in college towns across the country.

Edited by CrimsonKing
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Jarocal
3 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

 must show evidence that their trip is both essential and non-discretionary and non-optional.

Fishing trips are essential right? I mean I need to eat and fish from Canada have lower mercury levels than most american sources.i wouldn't call it discretionary as I need food and prefer it safe. 

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susieice
Posted (edited)

The Philadelphia Phillies and their staff are testing positive for covid. They closed down their spring training facility last Friday 6/19 and I heard they brought the team up here to PA. MLB closed all spring training facilities in Florida and Arizona. Other teams are also reporting positive cases. The Phillies still have people testing positive, so it's looking like no baseball this year.

@Kittens Are Jerks Toronto Blue Jays included. They shut down their facilities in Clearwater also.

https://6abc.com/philadelphia-phillies-coronavirus-covid-19-clearwater-players/6256108/

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29354169/phillies-2-more-players-2-staffers-test-positive-coronavirus

Edited by susieice
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Jerry Gallo
5 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Hi Jerry, I live in Oregon.  My response was to your comment as you seemed surprised that people were only just now up to 50% mask use.  In this area, some businesses are closed.  Some essential businesses like doctors and hospitals have stringent mask requirements.  Some essential businesses like grocery stores have requirements for employees and suggestions for customers.  Customer use of masks is increasing, but seems at a rough count of customers I see to be between 50%-60%.   Non-mask wearers are varied;  young and old, well dressed and work clothes.  There are still people that will upbraid you for wearing a mask and being a sheep if you happen to make eye contact on the cereal aisle. 

I am responsible for my own well being and that of my family so I take the hand washing and disinfecting surfaces seriously.  I don't want to infect people if I do have it so I wear a mask. 

I guess it just threw me a little that Oregon is just now masking at 50% when most of the country was masking pretty heavily as early as the first week of April. Your state and mine were notoriously some of the lowest tests per population in the country in May, it's been a minute since I looked at those numbers though. And Oregon really hasn't been a problematic area...even now, the triple digit positives seem related more to increased testing than an outbreak type condition. Most of the businesses I frequent for work and home necessities have very few people there where keeping distance doesn't take effort. And majority of my time spent away from home is outdoors at a particular park where I walk/run 7-8 miles per day. I'm really lucky to have gone on a health kick starting last February, I was probably pretty at-risk back then, now...opposite end of the spectrum. Plus, I've got moderate OCD so things have been getting cleaned in and around my house and car like there's a pandemic pretty much since I left the nest after HS.

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Kittens Are Jerks
5 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

Well, I guess I can't find a way to immigrate to Canada if Trump wins again.  :lol:  I wouldn't anyway, as I don't like the cold, I love the desert.  But I hope you all will keep the border closed for the next year or more since this is going to take a long time to run it's course.  Arizona is now having the issues with hospitals that New York did in Feb and March.  The governor did not  think it worth while to shut some things down to slow the spread.  There has been a rise in New Mexico again and our governor has been very cautious about reopening businesses.  Just opening them allowing up to 50% capacity and requiring masks has caused an surge in cases.  (well, the prison issue in southern New Mexico increased the number immensely in that whole county).  The states that have shut things down have not done it to stop the virus, but to be sure the hospitals are not overrun.

I can understand why you'd want to stay in New Mexico, it's gorgeous there. Canada is also quite scenic, and it suits me because I love the cold.

Sorry there's been a rise there, but I'm glad your governor is being cautious about reopening businesses. Our premier held a press conference today saying he was adamant about wanting the Canada-US border to remain closed beyond July 21 (that's the tentative date set for re-opening). He mentioned Florida, Arizona, Texas and California, and said he did not want our situation to get as bad, especially as we have finally have reached a point where cases are declining. Our provincial top doctor also issued a warning to those of us in the 20-39 age group telling us not to be casual about the virus as there's evidence that COVID causes prolonged health issues for young people. So it's going to be one day at a time for a while yet, but we'll get there.

5 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

I hope your property is not in Florida.

It is, unfortunately. We also have properties elsewhere in the US, including New York and California. Figures we'd be in hard hit areas.

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susieice

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Tatetopa
4 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

I guess it just threw me a little that Oregon is just now masking at 50% when most of the country was masking pretty heavily as early as the first week of April.

Hi Jerry, mask wearing was pretty stable at around 50% for several months.  We did have a rash of new cases and some people got spurred on.  We may be at 60% now.   I thought we would see more of a surge after Antifa graced us with their presence, but the masks they wear seem to reduce transmission of virus too, not a big spike.

Even in some of the places that it has been mandated, people defy it. I feel bad for the people working in businesses that get yelled at, abused, and sometimes spit on for trying to do their jobs.

The daughter of one of my wife's coworkers is a nurse that just tested positive.  He has been tested but he and other people that came into contact with him at work have to quarantine for 2 weeks.  That is 2-3 more people. 

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Bed of chaos
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, susieice said:

I was under the false assumption Philly already was mandatory (like most of northeast). Why now? Also according to article they're asking everyone to "self-enforce", this should be interesting.

Edited by Bed of chaos
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susieice
5 minutes ago, Bed of chaos said:

I was under the false assumption Philly already was mandatory (like most of northeast). Why now? Also according to article they're asking everyone to "self-enforce", this should be interesting.

I thought masks were mandatory statewide also. They are to go into all places here. 

Dr Fauci and his panel of experts gave their first press conference in months today. They nicely said this huge rise in cases is in younger people. They will spread it if they don't get seriously ill themselves. Older people flock to beaches and bars too though. There's a total disregard by many for the precautions. So far it's worse in the west and the south but we had a slight rise here. I heard it was reported in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and now Philly. The cities.

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