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ChrLzs

Covid 'Progress'?

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Bed of chaos
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, susieice said:

I thought masks were mandatory statewide also. They are to go into all places here. 

Dr Fauci and his panel of experts gave their first press conference in months today. They nicely said this huge rise in cases is in younger people. They will spread it if they don't get seriously ill themselves. Older people flock to beaches and bars too though. There's a total disregard by many for the precautions. So far it's worse in the west and the south but we had a slight rise here. I heard it was reported in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and now Philly. The cities.

Yeah, I'm not surprised. Curious how many philly shop owners will (can?) refuse service to those without masks. Anyway, I'm guilty going to beach for two days. However I didnt enter any shops or restaurants (avoided crowds) ..was content with my oceanfront balcony!

Edited by Bed of chaos
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susieice
2 minutes ago, Bed of chaos said:

Yeah, I'm not surprised. Curious how many philly shop owners will (can?) refuse service to those without masks. Anyway, I'm guilty going to beach for two days. However I didnt enter any shops or restaurants (avoided crowds) ..was content with my oceanfront balcony!

You used your head. A lot of people don't. The shore has gotten much more crowded in the last 2-3 weeks.

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Jarocal
4 hours ago, susieice said:

You used your head. A lot of people don't. The shore has gotten much more crowded in the last 2-3 weeks.

The only beach view I would want right now is from a kilometer or further offshore aboard my boat with a couple fishing lines trailing in the water.:D

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Jerry Gallo
9 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Hi Jerry, mask wearing was pretty stable at around 50% for several months.  We did have a rash of new cases and some people got spurred on.  We may be at 60% now.   I thought we would see more of a surge after Antifa graced us with their presence, but the masks they wear seem to reduce transmission of virus too, not a big spike.

Even in some of the places that it has been mandated, people defy it. I feel bad for the people working in businesses that get yelled at, abused, and sometimes spit on for trying to do their jobs.

The daughter of one of my wife's coworkers is a nurse that just tested positive.  He has been tested but he and other people that came into contact with him at work have to quarantine for 2 weeks.  That is 2-3 more people. 

Right, wrong or otherwise, I take a more cerebral approach to the virus, the disease and the risk associated. Fear can be both emotional and rational, I tend to take more of a rational approach. There are tons of data dumps out there for the virus and I've tracked many off and on since the beginning, some at a glance and some very in depth. So, I base MY habits on a number of factors that are based on what has occurred per data versus what has occurred in theory and debate. For example...

Where is the virus most dangerous? A snapshot of county data shows that 103 out of over 3000 counties in the US have qualified for three criteria (1/100 positive cases per population, 1/1000 deaths per population and 1/100 deaths per positive case). None in Oregon and Missouri.

Why is it most dangerous? Obviously, it's places with a lot of people in smaller, confined areas (nursing homes, hospitals, prisons, mass transit, and work offices). Not only did I avoid those areas or mask up and distance if I must participate, but there have been strict measures put in place for over two months that should minimize risk.

Who is being affected the most? Elderly; adults with hypertension, obesity, and significant health factors. 2-3 months down the road, folks know their risks, it's incumbent upon them to avoid risk if they have great fears of corona.

Why are they being affected the most? In the case of the adults, some measure of them have their co-morbidity by choices they have made...over-eating, smoking, lack of exercise. Some obviously have no choice, genetics and bad luck. Still, I don't smoke, but if I did, I wouldn't intentionally do so around people with asthma. But if I smoked and someone rips me a new one in a bar that allows smoking, complaining about their asthma, I'd ask them politely why the hell they are in a bar that allows smoking. If you are confined to a wheelchair and you go to Disney on the busiest day of the year, I can empathize with your inability to enjoy Disney like folks who can walk, but to choose to go on the busiest day and then say 10000 folks should focus on accommodating you rather than fun with their family...not a good choice on your part. Now, that doesn't mean people can knock you around or make things more difficult, but you have to comprehend your disability and make choices if you can't tolerate accidental or unintended hardship.

Is just getting the virus the scare, or is significant illness (hosp, ICU, vent) or death the scare? For me it's the latter. Again, I'm relatively healthy and still young enough to "be out there". And to say I should acqueisce to rules on the CHANCE that I could a) get the virus, b) pass it on, and c) have the person receiving end up in dire straits - especially when we've practiced measures originally said to curtail the virus for months, in areas of limited risk? Early on I asked the question...masking and distancing...fine...what day are we SAFE to resume normal life? This year, next, ever? Obviously whatever measures we have taken did little if we spike within a week or two of protests and beach going, so the answer appears it should have been we'll mask forever. 

If we tracked flu to the level we track coronavirus and Covid, it's pretty likely those numbers would be even more stark globally. Isn't it the appearance of the numbers that has everyone gripped by fear? In other words, should we have been masking and isolating like this every flu season for the last 100 years? We know flu has infected people just as much as this virus, because we have significant data on flu cases annually and that only tracks a portion because of it's common, accepted nature, most people just stay home and deal until they are well. We don't have a vaccine or a treatment for it, but the reality is, the folks dying allegedly from Covid are old and compromised, so would a vaccine or treatment have necessarily helped? I would say no, if it did, why do we have tens of thousands of deaths from flu every year with a vaccine and some level of accepted treatment measures?

I'll continue to monitor the stats because I am a nerd like that and it fascinates me. This thing is obviously going to do what it's going to do and it doesn't seem like we have much say about it. Hence, my rationale is that if I need to have the same or similar fear and hyper-vigilance on June 27 that I needed to have on March 27, with so much more known and three months of moderate measures of prevention, then I would conclude this is my life for potentially a year or longer. Not going to happen, I'll take my 0.1% risk of dying from this and live normally. If someone is afraid of me and my selfish, callous attitude about it...they can wrap themselves in bubble wrap and lock themselves in the basement. 

Lastly, folks can choose to believe the media, the so-called experts at CDC and WHO, and medical people trained to read and react to a worst case scenario and sell that as the normal expectation if they want. And they may well be right in the end. Or, they could become the Mayans and Al Gore. Said another way...who do you trust more on your decisions, you or me? And if my answer is the same as yours, but our decisions are opposite, that's hypocrisy in it's purest form. And please note, I'm speaking figuratively here, not accusing you.   I don't begrudge or mock continued decisions to mask and distance...but I am certain folks do so for those opting to forego. So, it's much like politics....I accept you, so long as you (always) agree with me. Isn't life grand?

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Right, wrong or otherwise, I take a more cerebral approach to the virus,

Very nice and thought provoking.  Full of points to consider.

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Jarocal
2 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Obviously whatever measures we have taken did little if we spike within a week or two of protests and beach going, so the answer appears it should have been we'll mask forever. 

https://images.app.goo.gl/qCeykns7GkUB1baD6

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ChrLzs
Posted (edited)
On 6/27/2020 at 12:19 AM, Desertrat56 said:

No, it is arrogance on your part, making judgment based on incomplete facts and supposition.

Ok, now's your chance - please cite your best example of my judgement being based on incomplete facts / suppositon.

Let's face it, you yourself then immediately said

Quote

Yes, our current president is an embarrassment but at least we can get rid of him this year

It seems you either concede my points, or refuse to actually debate specifics, instead preferring adhoms and insults about arrogance.  All while agreeing with me..?  If not, then now's the time to pony up and be specific - is there something in this thread that I got wrong, some graph that was misinterpreted?  I'm always happy to discuss specifics, learn new stuff, be corrected - and I'll even grovellingly apologise when I get stuff wrong.

But I can't do that if you simply handwave and don't point at something.  In my opinion it's a low tactic.  In future, how's about you QUOTE the stuff you are whining about?

Quote

Really, I have stated clearly why it bugs me, you all never talk about your politicians as if you don't have any, you talk about our politicians as if they are yours.

Gee maybe it's because they aren't anywhere near as incompetent, corrupt and divisive..?  Maybe it's because they generally, no matter which side they inhabit, make pretty reasonable decisions about where to point our country - to be specific, on topics like the pandemic response, on dealing with racism and bigotry, on taxing and spending sensibly, on a decent gun-control system, on ensuring we have a good safety net for the vulnerable in terms of health care and unemployment benefits.  Do you not have issues with any of those there?  :rolleyes:  Or maybe we're just apathetic and only arrogant towards other countries, right?

Are there any of those other topics that you'd like to discuss and compare? - start a new thread then.  And if our politicians are making bad decisions on, oh let's say Covid-19, you're very welcome to post that claim here - I and others are eager to learn if we can do better - after all, this won't be the last pandemic..

I promise I won't get my underwear in a huge twist if you find stuff to criticise from afar.  I'm far more interested in debating facts than accusing others of arrogance without actually saying why.  I guess that's going to be seen as even more arrogant...?  C'est la vie.

BTW, Australia does have pretty good media - why not start doing your own research, and perhaps you too might learn stuff that is useful, in reverse.  You could start with our 'ABC', which is funded by the Federal gov't, but has a funny habit of leaning to the other side of whoever is in power.  In contrast, there are lots of other media sources here, including the Murdoch group, but that too has a funny habit of criticising Trump and his band of idiots.

 

For as you know, that is what they are.

Quote

Like the old lady across the street looking through the curtains with the binoculars to be sure her neighbors are not doing something wrong, and all the while her husband is in the bedroom with another woman.

Yep, that's me.  I use my beloved Olympus 10x50's all the time for that, not stargazing.......

Quote

You have a bad habit of accusing people of things to deflect your bad behavior, you personally, not Australians.

As above, like for example, what exactly........?  I can't change and understand if you won't be specific.

Edited by ChrLzs
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susieice
Posted (edited)

Here's where I am and we are all open now and doing well, but will be watching the Jersey shore, NYC and Philadelphia. The pictures coming out of the Jersey shore this weekend are scary packed. Philadelphia is rising again and it's in line with the time frame from the start of the protests.

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/pa-coronavirus-update-weekend-brings-more-than-1k-new-cases-as-state-reopens-pa-covid-19-county-map-062820.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=lvl_facebook_lehighvalleylivecom&utm_campaign=lehighvalleylivecom_sf&fbclid=IwAR3YKdCpNeX_w6dYoi7nkmpHBf0ROd6akSs8dEeJBK0yHP6CIiFuMNepEDk

Edited by susieice
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susieice
ChrLzs

Only 4 states of the US are now reporting decreasing Covid-19 cases - the rest are ALL increasing...  Pick your favorite statistical site to verify, or if you like videos:

 

 

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acidhead
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

Only 4 states of the US are now reporting decreasing Covid-19 cases - the rest are ALL increasing...  Pick your favorite statistical site to verify, or if you like videos:

 

 

What is the death rate ratio?

You're more intelligent than this chis

Edited by acidhead

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ChrLzs
3 minutes ago, acidhead said:

What is the death rate ratio?

The new lot haven't had time to die yet, but yeah, I guess almost 130,000 deaths and rising is OK.

Oh, but you like ratios?  Taking into account population, ie per capita, the US has had over 300 times more deaths than countries like ... oh .. Australia, say...

More here...

3 minutes ago, acidhead said:

You're more intelligent than this chis

Oh, the delicious irony....  Yes, in fact I can read.  See that middle letter in my name - it's an L, ELL.  You know, like ELLe McPherson.  I'm Charles...

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Jerry Gallo
8 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

The new lot haven't had time to die yet, but yeah, I guess almost 130,000 deaths and rising is OK.

Oh, but you like ratios?  Taking into account population, ie per capita, the US has had over 300 times more deaths than countries like ... oh .. Australia, say...

More here...

Oh, the delicious irony....  Yes, in fact I can read.  See that middle letter in my name - it's an L, ELL.  You know, like ELLe McPherson.  I'm Charles...

This is all kind of silly, the comparisons are in no way similar. You have 26M people spread out over the same land area as the continental US, we have 330M + 10's of millions of undocumented people milling around. Not only is that the number of people who can get the virus, it's that many more potential carriers. To make this apples to apples, you'd take the people of Texas, spread them out over our land minus HI and AK. Your pop density is that of Montana or North Dakota, areas that aren't too dissimilar to Australia in positives per person and deaths per person. NYC accounts for 60% of the population as your five biggest cities combined, and your five cities average how many miles apart? I respect that you are obviously keeping track of data...how you translate and use it for argument is sketchy at best. 

Imagine someone from Ethiopia calling you out because their cases per person is 1/6th of yours and deaths per person is 1/4th. Meaningless. And that doesn't even begin to factor in our p***-poor methods of counting deaths, inflating the numbers to "give us a better understanding of the outbreak". Have we sucked at this...sure. Related to the president, to a small degree, maybe. Aside from that, not much relevant between our countries and coronavirus.

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Raptor Witness

According to my forecast of a coming “blood storm” in the U.S., in mid December 2019, the patient curiously “dies before, it cries.” This is a very strange description for a nation, yet it allegorically underlines perfectly the exact sort of complacency we see in a U.S. response to this virus, especially when compared to other developed nations.

The U.S. doesn’t cry, or in other words, take the virus seriously, until it’s too late, and we are already dead. 

Raptor Witness     1,821

Raptor Witness

The human species thinks it knows best for everyBody, but now, a new room has been ordered for everyOne.

Death is all around us, yet life Flickrs in a flame not yet Flung.

See it, Mother, on the mountain; gasping, a gurgling brook of failure, Tortuous moaning, the bleating of the last surrender. 

The United States; frozen like a mummy, sickening hunger, the pain of a newdawn trauma.

Worlds away, I seek the outcasts, but the beast does not derive .... easy sniveling.

Cantor, I said, thunder from afar ... to her breastplate. 

Moaning, like the mummy, dies, then cries.

A storm is coming, a greenish, dark mass, the smell of iron in her blood.

Hurry, up the stairs, set free the angel of the dark room, in heavenly light.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Raptor Witness
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Jerry Gallo
On 6/29/2020 at 5:19 PM, susieice said:

Well, now I know why they need a plan B pandemic. Hearing positive things from NC antibody tests...a bit early to read too much into it. But, makes sense if they can't keep the country locked down through end of year to have something to pivot to.

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Sir Wearer of Hats
10 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

This is all kind of silly, the comparisons are in no way similar. You have 26M people spread out over the same land area as the continental US, we have 330M + 10's of millions of undocumented people milling around. Not only is that the number of people who can get the virus, it's that many more potential carriers. To make this apples to apples, you'd take the people of Texas, spread them out over our land minus HI and AK. Your pop density is that of Montana or North Dakota, areas that aren't too dissimilar to Australia in positives per person and deaths per person. NYC accounts for 60% of the population as your five biggest cities combined, and your five cities average how many miles apart? I respect that you are obviously keeping track of data...how you translate and use it for argument is sketchy at best. 

Imagine someone from Ethiopia calling you out because their cases per person is 1/6th of yours and deaths per person is 1/4th. Meaningless. And that doesn't even begin to factor in our p***-poor methods of counting deaths, inflating the numbers to "give us a better understanding of the outbreak". Have we sucked at this...sure. Related to the president, to a small degree, maybe. Aside from that, not much relevant between our countries and coronavirus.

Ethiopia?

SERIOUSLY dude, you could have at least picked somewhere with a cricket team.

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Jerry Gallo
30 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Ethiopia?

SERIOUSLY dude, you could have at least picked somewhere with a cricket team.

Patience is a virtue bro, I once used Jamaica as an example and they ended up with a bobsled team. 

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Sir Wearer of Hats
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Patience is a virtue bro, I once used Jamaica as an example and they ended up with a bobsled team. 

HA! 
Good Lord, can you imagine an Ethiopian fast bowler.... they’d be leaving smoking holes in the bats.

Edited by Sir Wearer of Hats
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Jerry Gallo
11 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

HA! 
Good Lord, can you imagine an Ethiopian fast bowler.... they’d be leaving smoking holes in the bats.

Probably be scooped up by our Dodgers or Yankees before they ever saw the playing field...not much experience watching cricket, but it is infinitely more entertaining than the snoozefest we refer to as baseball.

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Jarocal
5 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Probably be scooped up by our Dodgers or Yankees before they ever saw the playing field...not much experience watching cricket, but it is infinitely more entertaining than the snoozefest we refer to as baseball.

Curling is a more interesting sport to spectate than baseball.

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Desertrat56
12 minutes ago, Jarocal said:

Curling is a more interesting sport to spectate than baseball.

The only sports that are more boring than baseball is golf and bowling, but then I think cricket is just as boring as baseball.

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Doug1029
On 6/25/2020 at 3:02 AM, susieice said:

They are also seeing the rise in covid cases is in younger people.

It is believed that the increase in younger people being infected this time around is due to them taking more risks.  Older folks learned and are staying home, so not as many are getting infected now.

Also, younger folks may not have the same death rate as older ones.  A greater portion of them are expected to survive.

But as my grandfather used to say when recovering from the flue:  "I'm afraid I'll live."

Doug

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ChrLzs
On 7/1/2020 at 1:54 AM, Jerry Gallo said:

You have 26M people spread out over the same land area as the continental US, we have 330M + 10's of millions of undocumented people milling around.

Please READ what you are responding to.  That number - 300X more, ALREADY took into account the population difference.  So that 300 x difference is purely OTHER factors.  You seriously missed that?

Yes, a smaller population does means a smaller initial problem and that it is easier to stamp out via proper contact tracing etc.  Does that alone explain the 300x difference?  Don't be bloody ridiculous.  The problem is that your country IS different and your moronic politicians should have known that and realised that they needed to move much faster.  But in fact they were many times slower than we were, with Trump making a dam fool of himself saying how it was completely under control.  Yes, they are and were MORONIC.

WTH is wrong with the people running the US - they don't understand your own demographics, and what was likely to happen?  And you apologists come along and excuse this behavior?  Good luck for the next pandemic - I think this one is now broken beyond repair, and you're just lucky that the disease is not necessarily lethal for some age groups.  The next will almost certainly be worse.

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