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ChrLzs

Covid 'Progress'?

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Jerry Gallo
2 hours ago, Jarocal said:

Curling is a more interesting sport to spectate than baseball.

A bald woman trying to curl her hair is more interesting than baseball. In fact, sell beer, and that may be a top three sport. 

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ChrLzs
9 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

The only sports that are more boring than baseball is golf and bowling, but then I think cricket is just as boring as baseball.

I guess you missed this post?

When will you be citing the things I got wrong?

 

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Jerry Gallo
19 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

Please READ what you are responding to.  That number - 300X more, ALREADY took into account the population difference.  So that 300 x difference is purely OTHER factors.  You seriously missed that?

Yes, a smaller population does means a smaller initial problem and that it is easier to stamp out via proper contact tracing etc.  Does that alone explain the 300x difference?  Don't be bloody ridiculous.  The problem is that your country IS different and your moronic politicians should have known that and realised that they needed to move much faster.  But in fact they were many times slower than we were, with Trump making a dam fool of himself saying how it was completely under control.  Yes, they are and were MORONIC.

WTH is wrong with the people running the US - they don't understand your own demographics, and what was likely to happen?  And you apologists come along and excuse this behavior?  Good luck for the next pandemic - I think this one is now broken beyond repair, and you're just lucky that the disease is not necessarily lethal for some age groups.  The next will almost certainly be worse.

Didn't miss anything...US has 814.26 infections per 100K citizens. Australia has 30.54 per 100K citizens. So, it's 26.66x more. Factor in land area, it's 22.39x more. Your number was 30x so fair enough on that part.

Won't argue our politicians are morons either. But let's not pretend it's as simplistic as you make it seem.

Your flaw in logic is a notion that all the people are evenly dispersed in the land. If you take out the large metro areas, that drastically changes things, even when compared to the rest of the US. For example, if I take eight states as an entity in the northeast part of the US, they have a 30% greater incident rate using same calculations that give us the 22.39x number. A great many of those are people who work and commute to NYC from NJ and southwest CT. As well, you wanna blame Trump, fine by me. But ask yourself, how can Trump be less moronic in 42 states than he was in eight others? And some states were far more drastic in their prevention measures, with Democrat mayors and governors doing almost opposite what Trump said and still had major issues with the virus...NYC chief among them. Australia has 17 cities with 100K people to shut down, are you going to tell me that the US shutting down 317 cities with 100K people is equivalent or similar? And let's also not forget the experts at WHO and CDC who got things quite wrong in their advice.

Won't even discuss the US death count as that number is hyper-inflated per the CDC. Also, how many tests have they done over there? How many antibody tests? Apologist? LOL...not even close...just a realist who comprehends numbers beyond their convenience to bash people.

 

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ChrLzs

I'll just repeat the key point - even if we accept your cherrypicking, the problem is this - the one thing you didn't address:

Quote

they don't understand your own demographics

THAT's why your country has gone down the toilet.  Surely knowing how your country works is their flippin' job?

Seriously, this *isn't* rocket science.  Yes, the US has several demographic issues that makes a pandemic much more dangerous, and that required immediate strong action.  That's why Bush and Obama amongst others actually had plans - you know, the ones that were totally ignored or binned when Trump took office...?

And your moronic politicians, especially the one right at the top, was doing close to nothing for those critical first months, hoping it would just go away...  The heads of your health departments knew what you should be doing, and so should have any decently intelligent politicians, but of course that's not who Trump attracts/appoints.

Sure, other countries made mistakes too, including ours - just recently there's been an outbreak that started at a 'quarantine hotel' that was horribly mismanaged, and the result is that numerous locations in that state have instantly been locked down and intense contact tracing is underway..

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susieice

I was just out running some errands and it's incredible how no one is wearing masks even though they are required in public places by law now. You can't go into any businesses without one.

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Desertrat56
8 minutes ago, susieice said:

I was just out running some errands and it's incredible how no one is wearing masks even though they are required in public places by law now. You can't go into any businesses without one.

We just got a notice that our governor is going to enforce mask wearing because people have become lax about it, even businesses like Home Depot are not requiring them to come in any more, but our cases have started going up again so there will be some type of enforcement now.  Not sure if it will be businesses being fined or individuals being fined.

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ChrLzs

A new record of over 50,000 daily new cases:

US_newcasesJuly20.jpg.8e53306ed7f61ac1239189554c661f27.jpg
(from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ )

.. all thanks to the (lack of) policies/leadership from Donald and cronies...

I note Don's new strategy is .... to hope it goes away... 

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Kittens Are Jerks
2 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

We just got a notice that our governor is going to enforce mask wearing because people have become lax about it, even businesses like Home Depot are not requiring them to come in any more, but our cases have started going up again so there will be some type of enforcement now.  Not sure if it will be businesses being fined or individuals being fined.

Here in Toronto, masks or face coverings will be required in all indoor public spaces beginning July 7 (although people are being encouraged to start wearing them immediately). Our public transit system has also made them mandatory.This new  by-law will be in effect until at least the end of September, probably longer. Fines for violations have not been set by local courts yet, but no one will really care about the amount as this city is known for focusing more on educating the public. We get lectured, not fined.

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Manwon Lender
7 hours ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Didn't miss anything...US has 814.26 infections per 100K citizens. Australia has 30.54 per 100K citizens. So, it's 26.66x more. Factor in land area, it's 22.39x more. Your number was 30x so fair enough on that part.

Won't argue our politicians are morons either. But let's not pretend it's as simplistic as you make it seem.

Your flaw in logic is a notion that all the people are evenly dispersed in the land. If you take out the large metro areas, that drastically changes things, even when compared to the rest of the US. For example, if I take eight states as an entity in the northeast part of the US, they have a 30% greater incident rate using same calculations that give us the 22.39x number. A great many of those are people who work and commute to NYC from NJ and southwest CT. As well, you wanna blame Trump, fine by me. But ask yourself, how can Trump be less moronic in 42 states than he was in eight others? And some states were far more drastic in their prevention measures, with Democrat mayors and governors doing almost opposite what Trump said and still had major issues with the virus...NYC chief among them. Australia has 17 cities with 100K people to shut down, are you going to tell me that the US shutting down 317 cities with 100K people is equivalent or similar? And let's also not forget the experts at WHO and CDC who got things quite wrong in their advice.

Won't even discuss the US death count as that number is hyper-inflated per the CDC. Also, how many tests have they done over there? How many antibody tests? Apologist? LOL...not even close...just a realist who comprehends numbers beyond their convenience to bash people.

 

Since you claim to just be a realist who comprehends numbers so well, above you said the death toll is inflated. I would like to see you prove that, I mean I don't think you would make a statement like that unless to you have facts, ie documents, links, or any other kind of written proof to back up your comments, if not I understand, this is just another one of your baseless opinions, and that's ok, however when you make statements like that you should add that it is your opinion.

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susieice
Posted (edited)

We just had a young man from our area die from Covid. He was 21 yrs old. Hearing a lot now about young people dying. Pennsylvania doesn't really have an increase in cases yet. Philadelphia was starting to rise and they did not progress to the next stage of reopening. New Jersey is having a horrible time with people crowding to the Jersey Shore. Their governor was on TV having a fit and he shut down indoor dining and bars before things get bad. They need to watch the beaches and the boardwalks too. They're packed and the 4th of July is a holiday where the crowds are usually huge. NYC rolled back too. It's California, Florida and Texas that's really exploding. California's governor just shut down beaches, bars and restaurants in more counties. All through the southern and the western states where it wasn't bad before are reporting more and more cases.

Edited by susieice
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Jerry Gallo
3 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

I'll just repeat the key point - even if we accept your cherrypicking, the problem is this - the one thing you didn't address:

THAT's why your country has gone down the toilet.  Surely knowing how your country works is their flippin' job?

Seriously, this *isn't* rocket science.  Yes, the US has several demographic issues that makes a pandemic much more dangerous, and that required immediate strong action.  That's why Bush and Obama amongst others actually had plans - you know, the ones that were totally ignored or binned when Trump took office...?

And your moronic politicians, especially the one right at the top, was doing close to nothing for those critical first months, hoping it would just go away...  The heads of your health departments knew what you should be doing, and so should have any decently intelligent politicians, but of course that's not who Trump attracts/appoints.

Sure, other countries made mistakes too, including ours - just recently there's been an outbreak that started at a 'quarantine hotel' that was horribly mismanaged, and the result is that numerous locations in that state have instantly been locked down and intense contact tracing is underway..

What is with all the anger? There is no cherry picking...it's you comparing apple and oranges. Let's use your country then. Explain how the positive case per test rate is 33% higher in New South Wales than it is in Victoria. NSW has 3.4x the area, VIC has 2.8x the density. Should be the other way around. Could it be that Sydney had 1.5M more potential infectors and interactions than Melbourne? If your leadership's decisions were so breathtakingly superb, how is it that Tasmania's positive case per test rate is 214% of Northern Territory? Shouldn't those numbers be relatively the same if effective leadership was the primary determinant? Or is it that different areas require different measures? If so, then your leadership wasn't consistently superb for all your areas.

You've had 71 cases in aged care facilities, we had over 8K deaths in nursing homes on May 2. Whether that means you have far superior care in those type places, you have far fewer folks in them, or a combination of the two. We had a governor moving Covid patients into nursing homes...can't blame that on Trump. Now one area we can agree is that we did do a p*** poor job of managing the virus in nursing homes...one of them was allegedly our ground zero in Washington state. Many of our nursing homes are cesspools of infection and death, particularly in small towns. Staffing is tragic in numbers, tenure and expertise. Obamacare bill had 2700 pages, add Obamacare regulations and the number of pages is 20K. Apparently healthcare reform didn't include the elderly. But no big deal to Obama supporters, death panels were a suitable result so long as the infinitely greater number of voters pulled the Democrat lever. And some now blame Trump for being unable to pass an improved HC reform bill because Republicans do not get to pass legislation in the dark of night that we have to approve to find out what is in it. 

Then we had Fauci telling people, go take your cruise. WHO telling people this was not a human to human virus on their Twitter page. So, heck yeah, blame Trump for not having a Doctorate in medicine, blame him for counting on shills to gather expertise. But for the love, people did the opposite of what Trump said and the results were still astronomically poor. It's not a defense of Trump, he's the boss and we clearly failed. But there are many bad actors here, to single out one lends to exploiting the situation. I prefer trends based on facts, not emotional rants from someone who doesn't even live here and keeps posting about the record number of cases when there are far better stats to indicate current trends. Our positive test rate the last two days of record cases over 50K was 8.4%. Our peak daily rate was 24% on Apr 2 on a day we had 20K less cases. Context matters. We're spiking, that is problematic no question about it. But, number of positive cases as you present them is folly. In the past 18 days, we've increased in cases by 625K cases. In our worst 18 day span of original outbreak, our hospitalization rate was 9.3%. In this 18 day span, it's 1.6%. So yes, record number of cases...seemingly asymptomatic or mild symptoms. Could mean the virus is weakening. Could be those getting it are much younger. Too many variables to think national policy is the top solution or blame. But, carry on as you wish, just wanted to overkill this cherry picking nonsense. I'm a numbers geek, not a Trump defender on this particular issue.

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Manwon Lender
On 7/1/2020 at 8:45 AM, Raptor Witness said:

According to my forecast of a coming “blood storm” in the U.S., in mid December 2019, the patient curiously “dies before, it cries.” This is a very strange description for a nation, yet it allegorically underlines perfectly the exact sort of complacency we see in a U.S. response to this virus, especially when compared to other developed nations.

The U.S. doesn’t cry, or in other words, take the virus seriously, until it’s too late, and we are already dead. 

Raptor Witness     1,821

Raptor Witness

The human species thinks it knows best for everyBody, but now, a new room has been ordered for everyOne.

Death is all around us, yet life Flickrs in a flame not yet Flung.

See it, Mother, on the mountain; gasping, a gurgling brook of failure, Tortuous moaning, the bleating of the last surrender. 

The United States; frozen like a mummy, sickening hunger, the pain of a newdawn trauma.

Worlds away, I seek the outcasts, but the beast does not derive .... easy sniveling.

Cantor, I said, thunder from afar ... to her breastplate. 

Moaning, like the mummy, dies, then cries.

A storm is coming, a greenish, dark mass, the smell of iron in her blood.

Hurry, up the stairs, set free the angel of the dark room, in heavenly light.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Raptor Witness

Partner, your not just weird, your completely off your rocker. I have a prediction for you, I am looking into my Crystal Ball, and I can clearly see your face. You are in a white room with a padded flour and walls, you are also wear an all white set of clothing along with a stylish jacket that appears to secure your arms to your chest. You have pushed yourself into a corner that is farthest from the single entrance into the room. I hear saying something, as I move closer I can hear you continue to say in a low voice over and over again he's coming, he's coming, and then everything fades to black. This is your future, and once it occurs there will be no escape, that room will become you home.:yes:;)

Peace

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Jerry Gallo
11 minutes ago, susieice said:

We just had a young man from our area die from Covid. He was 21 yrs old. Hearing a lot now about young people dying. Pennsylvania doesn't really have an increase in cases yet. Philadelphia was starting to rise and they did not progress to the next stage of reopening. New Jersey is having a horrible time with people crowding to the Jersey Shore. Their governor was on TV having a fit and he shut down indoor dining and bars before things get bad. They need to watch the beaches and the boardwalks too. They're packed and the 4th of July is a holiday where the crowds are usually huge. NYC rolled back too. It's California, Florida and Texas that's really exploding. California's governor just shut down beaches, bars and restaurants in more counties. All through the southern and the western states where it wasn't bad before are reporting more and more cases.

Most likely died with Covid, not from it. One beef I have with CDC is they have tons of data, none of it drilled down for the public to build a scenario (plus they keep moving it around with no indicator of where it went). There are also privacy rules. Anyway, bottom line is, we know 95% of the people dying are over 45 years old and we know most of the folks under that age had comorbidities that likely were made worse by the virus similar to how pneumonia or flu might push a stage four cancer patient over the edge into death. It is extremely rare for a healthy 21 year old to die exclusively from Covid. If the virus is weakening relative to hospitalization, ICU, vent and death...younger people going to beaches may help towards herd immunity. Just wish the media reporting all the scary stuff would explain some context, it's almost as if it's designed to scare people...as in to stay home and vote by mail perhaps?

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ChrLzs
Posted (edited)
Quote

we know 95% of the people dying are over 45 years old 

Yeah, bloody useless expendables.  And it's not like those who survive have any lasting effects, so stuff them too...

2 minutes ago, Jerry Gallo said:

it's almost as if it's designed to scare people...as in to stay home and vote by mail perhaps?

Oooops.  Tinfoil alert.  Additional agenda exposed.

Edited by ChrLzs
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Jerry Gallo
38 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Since you claim to just be a realist who comprehends numbers so well, above you said the death toll is inflated. I would like to see you prove that, I mean I don't think you would make a statement like that unless to you have facts, ie documents, links, or any other kind of written proof to back up your comments, if not I understand, this is just another one of your baseless opinions, and that's ok, however when you make statements like that you should add that it is your opinion.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Understanding-COVID-19-Provisional-Death-Counts.pdf

Done! Now you go on permanent ignore for playing childish message board games like you are 10. Only reason I responded in this case if because you obviously are pretty uninformed. Which is sad given how arrogant you are. 

 

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Jerry Gallo
13 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

Yeah, bloody useless expendables.  And it's not like those who survive have any lasting effects, so stuff them too...

Oooops.  Tinfoil alert.  Additional agenda exposed.

Coward...don't address the inconsistencies in your own argument, just further insult as if the inconsistencies don't exist. 

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Manwon Lender
34 minutes ago, Jerry Gallo said:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-1-Guidance-for-Certifying-COVID-19-Deaths.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Understanding-COVID-19-Provisional-Death-Counts.pdf

Done! Now you go on permanent ignore for playing childish message board games like you are 10. Only reason I responded in this case if because you obviously are pretty uninformed. Which is sad given how arrogant you are. 

 

Thank you Jerry, you just made my day, but placing me ignore will not stop me from answering your posts. I think it is necessary to point out your use of opinions which you claim are facts, other forum members must know what you doing, an when we run into each in a thread, I will make sure to make those facts  clear. Now too the links you provided, they certainly do not prove the comments you made in the post I quoted you on. But thanks for proving them, it certainly has helped me prove the point I made.

Oh and by the way, have a great day Big Jer

Peace

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Golden Duck
1 hour ago, Jerry Gallo said:

What is with all the anger? There is no cherry picking...it's you comparing apple and oranges. Let's use your country then. Explain how the positive case per test rate is 33% higher in New South Wales than it is in Victoria. NSW has 3.4x the area, VIC has 2.8x the density. Should be the other way around. Could it be that Sydney had 1.5M more potential infectors and interactions than Melbourne? If your leadership's decisions were so breathtakingly superb, how is it that Tasmania's positive case per test rate is 214% of Northern Territory? Shouldn't those numbers be relatively the same if effective leadership was the primary determinant? Or is it that different areas require different measures? If so, then your leadership wasn't consistently superb for all your areas.

You've had 71 cases in aged care facilities, we had over 8K deaths in nursing homes on May 2. Whether that means you have far superior care in those type places, you have far fewer folks in them, or a combination of the two. We had a governor moving Covid patients into nursing homes...can't blame that on Trump. Now one area we can agree is that we did do a p*** poor job of managing the virus in nursing homes...one of them was allegedly our ground zero in Washington state. Many of our nursing homes are cesspools of infection and death, particularly in small towns. Staffing is tragic in numbers, tenure and expertise. Obamacare bill had 2700 pages, add Obamacare regulations and the number of pages is 20K. Apparently healthcare reform didn't include the elderly. But no big deal to Obama supporters, death panels were a suitable result so long as the infinitely greater number of voters pulled the Democrat lever. And some now blame Trump for being unable to pass an improved HC reform bill because Republicans do not get to pass legislation in the dark of night that we have to approve to find out what is in it. 

Then we had Fauci telling people, go take your cruise. WHO telling people this was not a human to human virus on their Twitter page. So, heck yeah, blame Trump for not having a Doctorate in medicine, blame him for counting on shills to gather expertise. But for the love, people did the opposite of what Trump said and the results were still astronomically poor. It's not a defense of Trump, he's the boss and we clearly failed. But there are many bad actors here, to single out one lends to exploiting the situation. I prefer trends based on facts, not emotional rants from someone who doesn't even live here and keeps posting about the record number of cases when there are far better stats to indicate current trends. Our positive test rate the last two days of record cases over 50K was 8.4%. Our peak daily rate was 24% on Apr 2 on a day we had 20K less cases. Context matters. We're spiking, that is problematic no question about it. But, number of positive cases as you present them is folly. In the past 18 days, we've increased in cases by 625K cases. In our worst 18 day span of original outbreak, our hospitalization rate was 9.3%. In this 18 day span, it's 1.6%. So yes, record number of cases...seemingly asymptomatic or mild symptoms. Could mean the virus is weakening. Could be those getting it are much younger. Too many variables to think national policy is the top solution or blame. But, carry on as you wish, just wanted to overkill this cherry picking nonsense. I'm a numbers geek, not a Trump defender on this particular issue.

Can you include your data source?

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ChrLzs
Posted (edited)

Just to put a personal note to this, here's the story of an old couple from Texas:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIDL6PuLqYs

..and I note that Texas' Governor, after initially deriding masks is now mandating them for large parts of Texas...  Perhaps this is why:

aatexasjul01.jpg.9bac107d5b275f9f2b47467bc9b803f4.jpg
from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

Edited by ChrLzs

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ChrLzs
Quote

There is no cherry picking...

Says Jer, and then cherry picks...

Quote

If so, then your leadership wasn't consistently superb for all your areas.

I never claimed it was perfect, but we didn't sit there waving it off as a hoax, and doing nothing for two months.

Quote

We had a governor moving Covid patients into nursing homes...can't blame that on Trump.

I never did, Strawman much?

Quote

Now one area we can agree is that we did do a p*** poor job of managing the virus in nursing homes..

Agreed.

Quote

Then we had Fauci telling people, go take your cruise.

????  Naturally, you give no dates or context...  Thing is, unlike Trump and his morons, Science adapts and adjusts to new information.  That's a good thing.

Quote

WHO telling people this was not a human to human virus on their Twitter page.

Again, no dates or context.  At least now I'm not the only one who is onto your bull**** tactics.  Time to Ignore me, too, I'd suggest.  But others will read...

Quote

So, heck yeah, blame Trump for not having a Doctorate in medicine

Never did.  Stop listening to the voices in your head...  READ what I actually post.

Quote

blame him for counting on shills to gather expertise.

He appointed most of the shills, and he only listened to them when they agreed with his agenda..  So yes, I do blame him.

Quote

But for the love, people did the opposite of what Trump said

I can't help you with that one.  And I'll keep the rather obvious logical conclusions to myself.....

Quote

It's not a defense of Trump, he's the boss and we clearly failed.

Agreed.

Quote

But there are many bad actors here, to single out one lends to exploiting the situation.

Every other country in the world seems to be doing better by orders of magnitude...

Quote

I prefer trends based on facts

You're a funny guy!!!

Quote

Our positive test rate the last two days of record cases over 50K was 8.4%.

Well, there you go... that's so not cherry picked, so not the only stat that is even vaguely better than effing awful... :wacko:  Like I said, hilarious irony.

Quote

Context matters. We're spiking, that is problematic no question about it.

Agreed.  So why did you offer nothing but irrelevant 'context'?

Quote

But, number of positive cases as you present them is folly. In the past 18 days, we've increased in cases by 625K cases. In our worst 18 day span of original outbreak, our hospitalization rate was 9.3%. In this 18 day span, it's 1.6%. So yes, record number of cases...seemingly asymptomatic or mild symptoms. Could mean the virus is weakening.

Or, that cherrypicked stuff could mean that the spike is followed by a lag in hospitalisation.  You claim to be doing clever and in depth analysis, yet you don't know how to check such things?  Armchair scientist at all?  Anyway, I'm sure you know best, just look at those wonderful statistics coming from the US....  just make sure you look at the same graphs for other countries for comparison...

 

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ChrLzs

In fact, Jerry Gallo, I think it's time for a fact check..  OK with you?  May I warn you that I'm going to cherry pick just one of your statements above, to see if you are fairly representing what actually took place, or are using tactics to try to misinform.

I'll go nice and slow - first up, here's a graph of the US's corona virus Daily New Cases from Worldometer:
aa_USjun29.jpg.c9ec76c04d0fc2a6679b1bd7604e4169.jpg

Just forget about the high end for now, and whether the actual numbers are a good approximation or not - I'm wanting to focus on the timeline - would you substantially agree that the dates give a 'reasonable' approximation of the spread of events?

 

Be careful how you answer - it's a TRAP!

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Jerry Gallo
1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

Can you include your data source?

Nope...I have traveled the world studying the topic and I am the ultimate authority on the issue. Is that sufficient on this thread like it is on the fostering thread? Why bother with providing data sources when I can just make up a farcical story about myself and play that as my validation? 

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ChrLzs
3 minutes ago, Jerry Gallo said:

I am the ultimate authority on the issue

And I'm about to prove exactly the reverse...  Enjoy!

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Manwon Lender
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Jerry Gallo said:

Nope...I have traveled the world studying the topic and I am the ultimate authority on the issue. Is that sufficient on this thread like it is on the fostering thread? Why bother with providing data sources when I can just make up a farcical story about myself and play that as my validation? 

Finally honesty, good boy, the truth will set you free.:devil: Man only if it were really True,:no: it's pretty amazing that when you intentionally falsely state the Truth, even your dishonesty, is blatantly dishonest.:whistle:

Peace Big Jer.

Edited by Manwon Lender
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Tatetopa

Update on Oregon observations.  Out today for shopping.  At least 90% , maybe more wearing masks.  people are getting serious.

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