Support for Brexit is collapsing

[Ozymandias]

3 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

I`m sorry but you really are on another planet if you think a poll of people is invalid just because its conducted during the night.

I never said that. In fact, I never even said it was invalid.

3 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

While I am always sceptical of the claims of polls I think you are engaging in wishful thinking if you believe the majority of us want to stay in the EU or are willing to give up some of our sovereignty to remain in it.

I don't! I know that at the last head-count a small majority of 52% of you want out. As to what you want to give up, I think you are giving up far more just to go.

3 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

I personally have wanted a hard Brexit since day one. I voted out, not half out, not out so long is the EU are happy for us to leave.

Out, out, out, totally out!

Let me be the first to speed you on your way. I have no doubt that the EU will be sad to see the Cookie Monster, a la Benny Hill, go.

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Oh yes, without a doubt. 

The UK brings the commonwealth and CPTTP to the front door of Europe. Both are a threat to the EU. 

CPTTP,  represented by just 11 countries. 13% of Global GDP. 500M people. 

Then we have the Commonwealth. 52 territories and countries. 2.4Bn people. 20% of the world's landmass. 14.8 of Global GDP. 

America 50 States. 328 million people. 25% word trade. 

The UK connected to the world in a way the EU never can. Part of 56% of Global GDP. 

Meanwhile while the EU sits there with its share of 13% World GDP. And the UK reconnects to its historical place in the world. 

No wonder the EU is pooing itself. Never mind the UK being the world's 5th largest economy. But bringing the party to Europe. Will have a significant impact on the EU. 

Okay according to you UK will prosper with a hard Brexit yet it continues to negotiate... you’ve lost it!

[Unusual Tournament]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped

[stevewinn]

5 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Okay according to you UK will prosper with a hard Brexit yet it continues to negotiate... you’ve lost it!

of course we'll prosper on our own tariff schedule, which is tailored to our needs and not that of 27 others. straight off the bat we save £15Bn in former membership fees, then we get to keep 100% of tariff duty. instead of 80% of it going to the EU, - valued between £7bn and £13bn pa. then we have our fishing grounds. which will generate £8bn to £15bn in permits/quotas. That's £30bn to £42Bn pa staying here in the UK that formerly went to the EU..imagine this money now being spent in the UK. couple this with all the bespoke trade deals we've already agreed and those currently being negotiated. and while all this is going on we'll still be trading with the EU, us on their external tariff and them on our UK tariff. that will generate £3bn for the EU and £13bn for us but unlike the £13bn which will remain here in the UK. the EU's £3Bn will be shared out between 27.

Its a shame you don't champion the UK - Australian trade negotiations. which will benefit our countries. but then again Slavic/Greek. says it all.

.

 

[Electric Scooter]

9 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Okay according to you UK will prosper with a hard Brexit yet it continues to negotiate... you’ve lost it!

In case you missed it we are after a free trade agreement with no baggage attached.

With no free trade agreement its 5% on EU products and services we make ourselves, and 0% tariffs on everything else. That also doesnt include measures taken in any trade wars that might emerge.

What it will do is create a little bit of pressure in the UK to move towards self-sufficiency, and the same in the EU. In essence, it will degrade the dependency on each other over time which is what we want in Britain. The following sectors are of significant interest if we leave without a free trade agreement:

Food Stuffs: As you know the UK is an island nation with limited land for agriculture. We only make 60% of our food items and with the rest the majority comes from Ireland. With 5% tariffs on Irish food imports it will make Irish products 5% more expensive to the consumer. This is cause growth in the UK agriculture sector maybe getting us up to producing 70% or even 80% of our own food by putting Irish exporters at a price disadvantage. The Irish whose economy is largely dependent on exporting food to us are in for a recession. When it comes to food imports unfortunately for the Irish us Brits have already lined up free trade agreements with non-EU nations that export it so they will find it easier to compete against Irish products on our shelves. I predict a short-term hit to consumer supermarket bills until our own agriculture sector has grown and until non-EU food exporters find their footing in our supermarkets.

Cars: While we in Britain have a paranoia over Germany, while we haven`t forgiven them for ruining things for us in WW2, we secretly like their cars. Germany has several high-quality car manufacturers which many of our people buy from. They will become 5% more expensive too. But Germany isn`t home to all the worlds top car manufacturers and with those non-EU exporters of decent cars then we have been lining up free trade agreements with them too which will make them cheaper to sell in UK garages. The reason? Well currently the EU tariffs car exporters outside of the EU and that extra cost will disappear. I predict a little hit to the pockets of professional, skilled, and middle class citizens who only like to buy decent cars from German brands. Lets face it, the working class cannot afford them as things currently are never mind if we leave without a free trade deal. I predict a recession in the car industry for Germany.

Computer Tech: Germany is home to AMD and one of the two global mass silicon chip foundries. Intel and Global Foundries Ltd (which is the other) are based in the US. It will make budget computer systems more expensive hitting UK working class consumers and with this there are no budget alternatives. Its pay AMD prices + 5% or go Intel. I predict a recession for AMD.

Banking & Financial Services Sector: This is the British cash cow, its star industry, and where most corporate tax revenues come from. Here I predict the UK will be a winner. While its true it will make our banking and financial services 5% more expensive to Europeans this sector is unique in that it requires a lot of expert knowledge in the workforce. Therefore the counterpart banks and financial service companies in EU nations simply cannot grow to close the gap. It takes a good couple of decades of creating a focus in education to get sufficient numbers of the right type of graduate. And lets face it, the UK has spent 70 years luring overseas experts in this field to London. I predict a UK boom in the banking & financial services sector with Europeans being forced to pay more because of a lack of alternatives. Their domestic banks and financial services companies wont be able to expand enough to push us out.

Therefore overall my best educated guess is leaving the EU will on its own (without a coronavirus rebound, without the lifting of austerity) produce a small boom in the UK economy. It wont be one the working class benefit from, in fact they will be a little worse, it will be everyone above them that benefits from leaving the EU.

[Electric Scooter]

3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

of course we'll prosper on our own tariff schedule, which is tailored to our needs and not that of 27 others. straight off the bat we save £15Bn in former membership fees, then we get to keep 100% of tariff duty. instead of 80% of it going to the EU, - valued between £7bn and £13bn pa. then we have our fishing grounds. which will generate £8bn to £15bn in permits/quotas. That's £30bn to £42Bn pa staying here in the UK that formerly went to the EU..imagine this money now being spent in the UK. couple this with all the bespoke trade deals we've already agreed and those currently being negotiated. and while all this is going on we'll still be trading with the EU, us on their external tariff and them on our UK tariff. that will generate £3bn for the EU and £13bn for us but unlike the £13bn which will remain here in the UK. the EU's £3Bn will be shared out between 27.

Its a shame you don't champion the UK - Australian trade negotiations. which will benefit our countries. but then again Slavic/Greek. says it all.

Those sectors will all benefit, but the biggest sector in our economy is banking & financial services.

Thats not a job everyone can do, it takes finance and economics degrees which most people dont have. We have a good 500,000 of such people living in London. We have the lions share of the worlds finance and economics graduates. We have our home grown ones, and have spent 70 years luring them in from everywhere else.

Germany, France, and Spain, cannot simply double the size of their banking and financial services sectors because they dont have the right workforce to operate it. Hence, with no free trade agreement they will still be forced to use our banking & financial services putting them out of pocket. While they might one day grow those domestic sectors it would take at least 20 years to so.

A nice EU recession is coming to punish them for not giving us a free trade agreement lol.

[Electric Scooter]

13 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

I never said that. In fact, I never even said it was invalid.

I don't! I know that at the last head-count a small majority of 52% of you want out. As to what you want to give up, I think you are giving up far more just to go.

Let me be the first to speed you on your way. I have no doubt that the EU will be sad to see the Cookie Monster, a la Benny Hill, go.

Sure you didnt lol.

Your distorted arguments about us leaving the EU are about you not about us. The more I read your replies the more convinced I am that you are in muddy Irish field somewhere, sat in your tractor on your laptop, typing on this forum, while panicking over how Irish food prices will soon be 5% more expensive in our shops. I wrote a song to describe your predicament:

Oh MacDonald lost his farm, E, I, E, I, O.

And on that farm he had some pigs, E, I, E, I, O.

With a panic panic here, and a panic panic there, here a panic, there a panic, everywhere a panic panic, Oh MacDonald lost his farm, E, I, E, I, O.

He didn`t know what to rear, he didn`t now what to sow, E, I, E, I, O.

He couldn`t pay his bills, he pay his mortgage, E, I, E, I, O.

With a panic panic here, and a panic panic there, here a panic, there a panic, everywhere a panic panic, Oh MacDonald lost his farm, E, I, E, I, O.

(I`m only joking with you, I dont want you to lose your farm or house - LMAO)

[Jarocal]

11 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Okay according to you UK will prosper with a hard Brexit yet it continues to negotiate... you’ve lost it!

Belief that a hard Brexit will allow the UK to prosper does not preclude a concurrent idea that successful negotiations could allow both the UK and EU to prosper more.