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Manwon Lender

What has caused the New Surge in COVID19

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Manwon Lender
Posted (edited)

There are many theories to what is causing  the Surge in SARS-COV-2 infections and the increase COVID19 Illness in America.

1)  President Trump is quoted as saying that this is due to all the Testing the US doing, and that the US is doing more testing than any other country in the World.

2)  Another theory is the surge is due to all the recent Demonstrations and Riots Nationwide.

3)  Another theory that is proposed is that the CDC is not accurately reporting infections and deaths in the United States, according to this theory the CDC is reporting Higher Figures than are actually occurring.

4)  Another theory is that SARS-COV-2 has mutated and produced a viral strain that is 10X more infectious than any other previous strain.

Below are some links I have found on this subject, please use them as you discuss this topic:

Fact check on question number 1 above: 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fact-check-no-more-testing-isn-t-the-reason-us-coronavirus-numbers-are-getting-worse/ar-BB16ycUN?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/07/trumps-false-claim-on-coronavirus-harm/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/trump-claims-99-of-us-covid-19-cases-are-totally-harmless-as-infections-surge

What's causing Surges in California:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/why-are-california-s-covid-19-cases-surging-here-s-what-we-know/ar-BB1604tr

How to slow the spread:

https://bgr.com/2020/07/08/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-vs-presymptomatic-vs-symptomatic-yale-study/

Claims about CDC false figures of death and infection rates:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/28/fact-check-confusion-cdcs-covid-19-death-count/3254404001/

False claims debunked by fact checks:

https://www.factcheck.org/fake-news/

Play nice now!!:)

 

 

Edited by Manwon Lender
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papageorge1

All told, it sounds like the the expected increase due to allowing more social mixing and that increased cases is the known tradeoff. 

As I still haven't heard the hospital systems collapsing my thought is that maybe we are running it about right. The tradeoff is quality of life/education/economy/etc.  versus number of Covid19 cases.

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spartan max2

I think it's a mix of protest/riots, places reopening, and mixed mask compliance.

 

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XenoFish

When all else fails....

alens.jpg

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Manwon Lender
36 minutes ago, GlitterRose said:

I'm sure mixed mask compliance has something to do with it, but it also jumps every time there is a holiday.

That may be true, but have considered that a Mutation in the Virus has made it more infectious than before, along with what you said above, see the link below:

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-coronavirus-strain-infectious-does-not-make-people-sicker-study-2020-7

https://bgr.com/2020/07/03/coronavirus-mutation-d614g-more-contagious-fauci-interview/

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-coronavirus-strain-infectious-does-not-make-people-sicker-study-2020-7

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Manwon Lender
50 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

I think it's a mix of protest/riots, places reopening, and mixed mask compliance.

 

What about this possibility, could this be the cause?

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-coronavirus-strain-infectious-does-not-make-people-sicker-study-2020-7

https://bgr.com/2020/06/30/coronavirus-spread-map-usa-europe-d614g-mutation/

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Manwon Lender
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, papageorge1 said:

All told, it sounds like the the expected increase due to allowing more social mixing and that increased cases is the known tradeoff. 

As I still haven't heard the hospital systems collapsing my thought is that maybe we are running it about right. The tradeoff is quality of life/education/economy/etc.  versus number of Covid19 cases.

Could this be the cause, well maybe ICU's in some states are near full: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/the-curve-is-no-longer-flat-nearly-half-of-florida-s-icus-are-at-least-90-full/ar-BB16xYWH?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

Below is a mutation which makes the Virus 10X more infectious:

https://bgr.com/2020/06/30/coronavirus-spread-map-usa-europe-d614g-mutation/

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-coronavirus-strain-infectious-does-not-make-people-sicker-study-2020-7

Edited by Manwon Lender
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spartan max2
9 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Its possible but I would lean towards no because of this part.

Quote

A new strain of the novel coronavirus that's spreading from Europe to the US is more infectious than its predecessor, according to a new global study published in the journal Cell and first reported on by CNN.

We should be seeing a surge in Europe if it was mostly due to a mutation.

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Manwon Lender
17 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Its possible but I would lean towards no because of this part.

We should be seeing a surge in Europe if it was mostly due to a mutation.

Not necessarily so, the difference between Europe and the United States, were the riots, the rallies, and a lack of social distancing / combined with people here not wanting to wear masks. In Europe and many other countries outside the US people are taking all precautions more seriously than we are here, and the Governments are enforcing the regulations, we both know that isn't being done in the US, except in certain states. We both also know that our government has not taken control of the guidelines, unlike the countries in Europe where the governments control and have set the guidelines and are enforcing them. Please don't take this out as a political statement, I am only trying to answer the question you asked to the best of my ability, I do want to bring politics into this conversation.

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spartan max2
1 minute ago, Manwon Lender said:

Not necessarily so, the difference between Europe and the United States, were the riots, the rallies, and a lack of social distancing / combined with people here not wanting to wear masks. In Europe and many other countries outside the US people are taking all precautions more seriously than we are here, and the Governments are enforcing the regulations, we both know that isn't being done in the US, except in certain states. We both also know that our government has not taken control of the guidelines, unlike the countries in Europe where the governments control and have set the guidelines and are enforcing them. Please don't take this out as a political statement, I am only trying to answer the question you asked to the best of my ability, I do want to bring politics into this conversation.

We are in agreement. 

The new mutation isn't a significant factor or else we would see it cause a surge in both Europe and the U.S since the mutation allegedly started in Europe.

But sine we are not seeing that happen that means that the surge is from other factors like the mask, protest, etc.

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Manwon Lender
27 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

We are in agreement. 

The new mutation isn't a significant factor or else we would see it cause a surge in both Europe and the U.S since the mutation allegedly started in Europe.

But sine we are not seeing that happen that means that the surge is from other factors like the mask, protest, etc.

Sorry but we are not in agreement, because the way they are handling the Virus in Europe is responsible, but it is not being handled that way in the US. It seems like you did not completely read my post or you answered a different post and wrote your answer in mine, because what doesnt agree with anything I posted. Was there a mistake, because I don't understand your response?

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spartan max2
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Sorry but we are not in agreement, because the way they are handling the Virus in Europe is responsible, but it is not being handled that way in the US. It seems like you did not completely read my post or you answered a different post and wrote your answer in mine, because what doesnt agree with anything I posted. Was there a mistake, because I don't understand your response?

Your question: What has caused the New Surge in COVID19?(in America)

To which I answered  mask, protest/riots, and reopening.

You then asked me if I felt it was because of a new mutation being more contagious.

To which im answering that I believe the surge in the U.S is mostly not because of the new mutation, but instead because of the factors I listed.

My reasoning is because the new mutation started in Europe first, so if the surge was because of the mutation then we would see a surge in Europe too. But we are not.

Which means the surge has to be from other factors. Like a difference in Europe and the U.S's response to the virus. Which is what you keep pointing out.

So it seems to me that unless I'm missing something, it looks like we are in agreement. 

 

Edited by spartan max2
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Michelle

As of June 15th...

Missed queues: England’s shops are back in business, and so are the lines

 Long lines stretched along streets and snaked around blocks across England as shops selling fashion, toys and other nonessential items welcomed customers Monday for the first time since Britain was put into lockdown in late March.

Starved of the retail experience for the best part of three months, shoppers appeared to be obeying the social distancing requirement to stay at least six feet apart as they awaited their turn to enter the stores.

Friends Dionne Sumner and Olivia Copeland, both 25, couldn’t wait to get to their local budget clothes retailer Primark in Liverpool. Arriving at the store at 8:30 a.m., they queued for about 15 minutes before getting in.

cont...

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-15/england-shops-reopen-after-coronavirus-shutdown

Most of ours are still shut down.

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razman

Probably could come up with a list longer than my arm as to what could be contributing to it.

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stereologist
2 hours ago, papageorge1 said:

All told, it sounds like the the expected increase due to allowing more social mixing and that increased cases is the known tradeoff. 

As I still haven't heard the hospital systems collapsing my thought is that maybe we are running it about right. The tradeoff is quality of life/education/economy/etc.  versus number of Covid19 cases.

Do you realize that this is very similar to saying that the number of dead people is a trade off for the quality of life for those that do not die?

The hospitals close to maxing out means that we are getting just as many sick people as possible without filling out the hospitals. Sick people is proportional to dead people.

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papageorge1
Just now, stereologist said:

Do you realize that this is very similar to saying that the number of dead people is a trade off for the quality of life for those that do not die?

Yep. We don’t stop planes and cars because people will die.

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stereologist
Just now, papageorge1 said:

Yep. We don’t stop planes and cars because people will die.

That's a ridiculous analogy.  Can you figure out why?

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stereologist
1 hour ago, Manwon Lender said:

One of the ideas early on was that the strain that went to Europe and then to the US was more contagious than the strain that infected Wuhan.

Does a new strain reveal a difficulty for the the development of a vaccine? It all depends on what the vaccine targets.

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stereologist

Following the evidence is crucial. We can all make guesses. One of mine was that the recent protests and marches would lead to a spike in cases. That does not appear to be the case.

My guess was wrong. so  now I have to look for alternative causes for the spikes. We have two possibilities or maybe there are more:

  1. A more infectious strain
  2. Less compliant population

Where I live I've seen a big drop in compliance in face masks and social distancing. People I've talked to don't seem to understand a face mask protects others.

From my perspective I see people who are less caring about others. But what I observe is a tiny speck of the US.

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Manwon Lender
47 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Your question: What has caused the New Surge in COVID19?(in America)

To which I answered  mask, protest/riots, and reopening.

You then asked me if I felt it was because of a new mutation being more contagious.

To which im answering that I believe the surge in the U.S is mostly not because of the new mutation, but instead because of the factors I listed.

My reasoning is because the new mutation started in Europe first, so if the surge was because of the mutation then we would see a surge in Europe too. But we are not.

Which means the surge has to be from other factors. Like a difference in Europe and the U.S's response to the virus. Which is what you keep pointing out.

So it seems to me that unless I'm missing something, it looks like we are in agreement. 

 

I see you point, thanks for being clear I appreciate it, but I think it is from both the mutation and the fact to many people are not  are following the basic guidelines. With the Virus mutation and no social distancing, not wearing masks, and others facts the Virus is having a free for all, in the states were the guidelines are not followed.

Thanks for you post I should have made my point more clearly, that's my fault.

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stereologist

The extent of the new strain would be an indicator of its effect. If the more contgius strain is found in many places then it certainly is contributing to the new surge. But has that mre contagious strain had a chance to spread or is that a surge about to reveal itself?

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Manwon Lender
4 minutes ago, stereologist said:

Following the evidence is crucial. We can all make guesses. One of mine was that the recent protests and marches would lead to a spike in cases. That does not appear to be the case.

My guess was wrong. so  now I have to look for alternative causes for the spikes. We have two possibilities or maybe there are more:

  1. A more infectious strain
  2. Less compliant population

Where I live I've seen a big drop in compliance in face masks and social distancing. People I've talked to don't seem to understand a face mask protects others.

From my perspective I see people who are less caring about others. But what I observe is a tiny speck of the US.

I agree with you completely, but there is a way to get a much larger picture. In blue states and cities more people are following President Trumps guidance, so in effect there would less masks worn and less social distancing. In Red states and cities there is more enforcement and people are following the guidelines better, now I have not checked this but it seems possible.

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Manwon Lender
26 minutes ago, stereologist said:

One of the ideas early on was that the strain that went to Europe and then to the US was more contagious than the strain that infected Wuhan.

Does a new strain reveal a difficulty for the the development of a vaccine? It all depends on what the vaccine targets.

My problem with a vaccine is, if this Virus is mutating quickly vaccines would have to end up being like the vaccines for the Flu, which to this day are still hit and miss. Then there is the other possibility that no vaccine can ever be effective, so on this point I do not have the education necessary to completely understand how this all works. So I think time will tell for certain. 

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