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Trump vs Biden


RoofGardener

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With the election being tomorrow I figured this would be interesting.  This is all from FiveThirtyEight as I'm too lazy to do this all myself.

Arizona 

  • Biden 48.7% 
  • Trump 46.1%

Florida

  • Biden 49%
  • Trump 46.6%

Georgia

  • Biden 48.5%
  • Trump 47.4%

Iowa

  • Biden 46.1%
  • Trump 47.5%

Michigan

  • Biden 51.3%
  • Trump 43%

Minnesota 

  • Biden 52%
  • Trump 42.6%

Nevada 

  • Biden 49.7%
  • Trump 44.4%

North Carolina

  • Biden 48.9%
  • Trump 47.1%

Ohio

  • Biden 46.7%
  • Trump 47.4%

Pennsylvania 

  • Biden 50.3%
  • Trump 45.4%

Texas

  • Biden 47.5%
  • Trump 48.5%

Wisconsin 

  • Biden 52.1%
  • Trump 43.7%

Nationally

  • Biden 51.8%
  • Trump 43.4%

Despite what the media is saying Biden is far from a sure win.  The problem is the margin of error inherent to each of those state polls.  FiveThirtyEight averages multiple polls to get their figure but that doesnt remove the margin of error from the polls.  Some state polls have significantly smaller margin of errors then others, for example most Iowa state polls have a margin of error around 1.5% to 2% if I remember correctly, but on average a lot of the state polls have been having margin of error between 3% and 4%, some going as high as 5%.  

The significance of all that is that assuming 3% to 4% margin of error then the only safely leaning Biden states are Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Michigan being borderline as a 3% margin of error has it safely leaning Biden but 4% has it statistically tied.  

In 2016 polls did underestimate Trump's support and despite their claims that they have fixed the problems there is still no proof that they actually have.  Also there has been concerning signs with early voter turnout among Democrats being lower then expected in quite a few battleground states with Florida being the best example with Democrats only having approximately 100,000 vote lead before election day when Republicans are expected to out vote Democrats 2 to 1 on average.  

Point is this election is going to be very close and despite what is said on here and the media the election is still a toss up at this point.

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30 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

That's precious....

You think Republicans riot. So naive...

Ive seen trump worshippers on here boast what they will do if for any reason trump loses they included civil disobedience and violence, pretty much a "riot".

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31 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Oh....

More precious nonsense... You're so funny...

I agree what bee said was nonsense, but you sound like with all your posts you are in manic meltdown mode as the very real possibility the man you bend a knee to and worship, deranged donny might not win, its okay hide in your safe place,

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52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

With the election being tomorrow I figured this would be interesting.  This is all from FiveThirtyEight as I'm too lazy to do this all myself.

Arizona 

  • Biden 48.7%  
  • Trump 46.1% 

AZ Oct 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.9%
Joe Biden 46.4%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Florida

  • Biden 49%  
  • Trump 46.6% 

FL Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 49.6%
Joe Biden 46.9%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Georgia

  • Biden 48.5%
  • Trump 47.4%

GA Presidential Poll

Donald Trump 49.8%
Joe Biden 43.3%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Iowa

  • Biden 46.1%
  • Trump 47.5%

Michigan

  • Biden 51.3%
  • Trump 43%

MI Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 49.1%
Joe Biden 46.6%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Minnesota 

  • Biden 52%
  • Trump 42.6%

MN ’20 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Joe Biden 48.0%
Donald Trump 44.8%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Nevada 

  • Biden 49.7%
  • Trump 44.4%

NV Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll

Totals (with leans)
Joe Biden 49.4%
Donald Trump 47.1%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

North Carolina

  • Biden 48.9%
  • Trump 47.1%

NC Oct 31, 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.6%
Joe Biden 46.5%
52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Ohio

  • Biden 46.7%
  • Trump 47.4%

 

 

52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Pennsylvania 

  • Biden 50.3%
  • Trump 45.4%

 

 

52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Texas

  • Biden 47.5%
  • Trump 48.5%

Wisconsin 

  • Biden 52.1%
  • Trump 43.7%

 

 

52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Nationally

  • Biden 51.8%
  • Trump 43.4%

I've been keeping an eye on Trafalgar Pollin.  They called it right in 2016.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

One of their recent tweets says that they see the same in polling as Rasmussen.

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group?lang=en

52 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Despite what the media is saying Biden is far from a sure win.  The problem is the margin of error inherent to each of those state polls.  FiveThirtyEight averages multiple polls to get their figure but that doesnt remove the margin of error from the polls.  Some state polls have significantly smaller margin of errors then others, for example most Iowa state polls have a margin of error around 1.5% to 2% if I remember correctly, but on average a lot of the state polls have been having margin of error between 3% and 4%, some going as high as 5%.  

The significance of all that is that assuming 3% to 4% margin of error then the only safely leaning Biden states are Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Michigan being borderline as a 3% margin of error has it safely leaning Biden but 4% has it statistically tied.  

In 2016 polls did underestimate Trump's support and despite their claims that they have fixed the problems there is still no proof that they actually have.  Also there has been concerning signs with early voter turnout among Democrats being lower then expected in quite a few battleground states with Florida being the best example with Democrats only having approximately 100,000 vote lead before election day when Republicans are expected to out vote Democrats 2 to 1 on average.  

Point is this election is going to be very close and despite what is said on here and the media the election is still a toss up at this point.

 

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1 hour ago, the13bats said:

Ive seen trump worshippers on here boast what they will do if for any reason trump loses they included civil disobedience and violence, pretty much a "riot".

Well... There is a difference between civil disobedience and rioting. Just as there is between protesting and rioting. 

Now, taking up arms against the lawful government is actually rebellion. Treason by another name. I doubt many will do so.

How many do you think will go for civil disobedience? A couple hundred? Couple thousand? Tens of thousands?

I have a (former) friend from college I keep up with. He's a prepper/survivalist/nutcase now. He keeps talking about revolution, but every time it comes time to get the guns, get on the truck and head out to join the militia... He ends up staying home. I think there's a lot of talk, but probably less action then we saw from Antifa this summer. Id be very surprised if there is more then gatherings and media shows.

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1 hour ago, the13bats said:

I agree what bee said was nonsense, but you sound like with all your posts you are in manic meltdown mode as the very real possibility the man you bend a knee to and worship, deranged donny might not win, its okay hide in your safe place,

Look, you're the one using all the adjectives. You're the one who "seems" to be loosing it. When you post rants it appears emotional and a bit... crazy, to be honest.

I've never seen anyone worship Trump. I dont believe I've seen anyone take a knee either. 

To be honest, if Biden wins... Thats probably a WIN for Republics long term. The guys going to be another Truman. Or perhaps Carter. He for sure ain't no Clinton (Billy), or Obama...

Long term, a Biden win means a Responsible Republican will for sure win in 2024. Maybe Cruz. Maybe Rand Paul. Point being 2020-2024 is likely to be a complete mess either way.

Edited by DieChecker
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18 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

AZ Oct 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.9%
Joe Biden 46.4%

FL Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll

TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 49.6%
Joe Biden 46.9%

GA Presidential Poll

Donald Trump 49.8%
Joe Biden 43.3%

From what I've read.... Trump MUST win Pennsylvania. Theres almost no road to 270 without it.

I'm a bit surprised by how much he is polling ahead in AZ, GA and FL.

Quote

I've been keeping an eye on Trafalgar Pollin.  They called it right in 2016.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

One of their recent tweets says that they see the same in polling as Rasmussen.

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group?lang=en

Thats surprising to me also. I'll have to keep an eye on these guys in the future.

Edited by DieChecker
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37 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Look, you're the one using all the adjectives. You're the one who "seems" to be loosing it. When you post rants it appears emotional and a bit... crazy, to be honest.

 

 

Batsh!t crazy!!!

:D

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Trafalgar group is definitely an interesting pollster.  Seems among the regular pollsters they are generally disliked and when graded are almost always given a C+ grade compared to more established pollsters getting B+ or A but yet in 2016 and 2018 Trafalgar group had most of their polls correctly predicting the winner.

What's really unique about Trafalgar group is how they go to extensive lengths to secure and guarantee the anonymity of the people conducting the polls, how they wont do polls with less then 1,000 participants to reduce margin of error, and arguably most importantly they make sure their polls can be done in a few minutes and are only a few questions long instead of having polls lasting between 30 to 45 minutes with long questionnaires like most pollsters.

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58 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Well... There is a difference between civil disobedience and rioting. Just as there is between protesting and rioting. 

Now, taking up arms against the lawful government is actually rebellion. Treason by another name. I doubt many will do so.

How many do you think will go for civil disobedience? A couple hundred? Couple thousand? Tens of thousands?

I have a (former) friend from college I keep up with. He's a prepper/survivalist/nutcase now. He keeps talking about revolution, but every time it comes time to get the guns, get on the truck and head out to join the militia... He ends up staying home. I think there's a lot of talk, but probably less action then we saw from Antifa this summer. Id be very surprised if there is more then gatherings and media shows.

"Riot" or civil disobedience and violence is the same its just perspective, the side you are on and how you view the ones doing the burning and violence and yes if the riots attack government in this modern age its treason to go to war because you are butthurt your guy lost.

Sure a few trumper worshippers here did get carried away in the past and likely posted in public more than they should have about what they would do if for any reason deranged donny doesnt win, it could still haunt them.

If your question means how many trump worshippers will actually place trumps ego over their lives and their families lives i would say very few, enough to cause their local NG to have to work a bit but not enough to keep donny in the WH.

I agree whoever blm, antifa, etc the non peaceful rioters were these past few months likely outnumber those who will actually act out for trump about 10 or 15 to one likely more, i have no idea what they call themselves but i know they were trump haters who would be delighted to have trumpers try to meet them fist to cuffs, and in that the lovely media may just call it "civil war".

58 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Look, you're the one using all the adjectives. You're the one who "seems" to be loosing it. When you post rants it appears emotional and a bit... crazy, to be honest.

I've never seen anyone worship Trump. I dont believe I've seen anyone take a knee either. 

To be honest, if Biden wins... Thats probably a WIN for Republics long term. The guys going to be another Truman. Or perhaps Carter. He for sure ain't no Clinton (Billy), or Obama...

Long term, a Biden win means a Responsible Republican will for sure win in 2024. Maybe Cruz. Maybe Rand Paul. Point being 2020-2024 is likely to be a complete mess either way.

And here is where you start sounding like a typical trump worshipper, making up stuff about others then falling back on the attempts at insult when you get chapped by someone elses opinion, you go right to the don/right  tactic of trying to trigger and flame bait by saying i sound this or that to you, but you saying it far from makes it so, like 98% of your posts which are just biased tripe, people here expect it of you.

No big deal, as i know you will jump to yet again set me straight, try to insult bluster and babble perhaps get a thumbs up from another bend knee trumper worshipper lemming yet call me the crazy one,

yeah, you remind me of your god trump when hes at a PC and some reporter asks an honest question that the answer makes him look bad so he calls them names and huffs off in a hissy fit, in his twisted delusinal mind he won.

We expect that from him and when people like you follow that lead you will look like a trump worshipper even if you claim not to be, i dont blame you for that, prove me right about you and go off on me yet again, you couldnt ignore me if you tried, you simply cant, you have to like all trumpers get in that last word.

Jurassic joe will be the opposite of trump he will bring America back together and yes after the 4 year epic Republican disaster of trump the gop will have to work double time to repair the damage trump has done and prove to Americans not all republicans are incompatant ignoramuses like trump,  their work is ahead of them, by all means keep making tgeir job harder,

This time tomorrow it will pretty much be known and over, i look forward to just another crap part of 2020 to be past.

 

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Trafalgar group is definitely an interesting pollster.  Seems among the regular pollsters they are generally disliked and when graded are almost always given a C+ grade compared to more established pollsters getting B+ or A but yet in 2016 and 2018 Trafalgar group had most of their polls correctly predicting the winner.

What's really unique about Trafalgar group is how they go to extensive lengths to secure and guarantee the anonymity of the people conducting the polls, how they wont do polls with less then 1,000 participants to reduce margin of error, and arguably most importantly they make sure their polls can be done in a few minutes and are only a few questions long instead of having polls lasting between 30 to 45 minutes with long questionnaires like most pollsters.

Did they get it right in 2018?  IIRC, they didn't.  I think it was a Planet America interview where they said said they went back to harbour and to take a real good look where they went wrong.

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28 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Did they get it right in 2018?  IIRC, they didn't.  I think it was a Planet America interview where they said said they went back to harbour and to take a real good look where they went wrong.

They predicted all but 2 of the winners correctly, I think 7 out of 9 elections but I could be off with the overall numbers I just remember only 2 were wrong on who would win.  As for victory margin they were off by a bit with the largest being in Florida where they predicted the Republican having a 10 point lead but he only won by like 0.1%.

They were the only one predicting he would win though so there is that.

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2 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Look, you're the one using all the adjectives. You're the one who "seems" to be loosing it. When you post rants it appears emotional and a bit... crazy, to be honest.

I've never seen anyone worship Trump. I dont believe I've seen anyone take a knee either. 

To be honest, if Biden wins... Thats probably a WIN for Republics long term. The guys going to be another Truman. Or perhaps Carter. He for sure ain't no Clinton (Billy), or Obama...

Long term, a Biden win means a Responsible Republican will for sure win in 2024. Maybe Cruz. Maybe Rand Paul. Point being 2020-2024 is likely to be a complete mess either way.

 

Yes whatever happens today - the bonding and togetherness and positivity of the Trump voters + supporters has been forged on a deep level - survival of country + family + culture - it doesn't get much deeper than that...

Trump has brought people together in an unprecedented way...that's why the Reverse Reality Pedlars try and portray it as the opposite
and have tried very hard to divide people ...

Happy voting :tu:

 

 

 

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Image

 

 

 

what is it about this song...? .... it really touches the spot...... a classic .....

Wichita Lineman - Glen Campbell

 

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44 minutes ago, bee said:

Trump has brought people together in an unprecedented way

Yes, its the deaths he caused from his incompatant epic failure covid response.

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5 hours ago, the13bats said:

Ive seen trump worshippers on here boast what they will do if for any reason trump loses they included civil disobedience and violence, pretty much a "riot".

 

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Sorry buzz i dont do clickbait

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23 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Sorry buzz i dont do clickbait

Is Buzz over here making up stories again, doesn't surprise me at all. Next thing you know be will start quoting the fictional book called the Bible!:P

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3 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Is Buzz over here making up stories again, doesn't surprise me at all. Next thing you know be will start quoting the fictional book called the Bible!:P

Pfffft.. fake news. The Bible has CLEARLY been debunked by The Lord of the Rings. 

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6 hours ago, the13bats said:

Ive seen trump worshippers on here boast what they will do if for any reason trump loses they included civil disobedience and violence, pretty much a "riot".

Yeah, but most of THEM are in the UK or Australia :D 

3 hours ago, the13bats said:

"Riot" or civil disobedience and violence is the same its just perspective, the side you are on and how you view the ones doing the burning and violence and yes if the riots attack government in this modern age its treason to go to war because you are butthurt your guy lost....

That's a very revealing statement, @the13bats. You think that 'civil disobedience' involves burning and violence ? 

 

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1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

 

Umm.... how do you 'leak' a zoom call ? 

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7 hours ago, DieChecker said:

And it's starting to appear that may not be enough.

It may not be - yet it may be - we will know very shortly.

For the sake of the US lets hope its clear and cut either way. Otherwise I feel things could get pretty bad over there. 

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11 hours ago, DieChecker said:

While Biden supporting voters seem to be posting vitriol. 

And nothing positive about Biden. No... "I really believe and love this guy! He's amazing and a hope for our future!" It's just "I hate Trump." 

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