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Eldorado

'Jaw-dropping' crash in fertility rates

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Eldorado

"The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.

"Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

"And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

"Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born."

Full article at the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521

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zep73

How is that a bad thing?? We should celebrate!

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justin3651
6 minutes ago, zep73 said:

How is that a bad thing?? We should celebrate!

My first thought s were the same. According to the article however

 "You might think this is great for the environment. A smaller population would reduce carbon emissions as well as deforestation for farmland.

"That would be true except for the inverted age structure (more old people than young people) and all the uniformly negative consequences of an inverted age structure," says Prof Murray. "

 "Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?"

Also,

"China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years' time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place. "

 

"The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to treble in size to more than three billion people by 2100.

And the study says Nigeria will become the world's second biggest country, with a population of 791 million."

So it sounds like 3rd world countries will keep popping kids out like crazy, sounds like disease/starvation/and lack of clean water problems will just get worse.

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zep73
56 minutes ago, justin3651 said:

"You might think this is great for the environment. A smaller population would reduce carbon emissions as well as deforestation for farmland.

"That would be true except for the inverted age structure (more old people than young people) and all the uniformly negative consequences of an inverted age structure," says Prof Murray. "

 "Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?"

I fail to see how the increased elder burden inhibits the environmental benefits of fewer people?

Regarding population growth in southern Africa, I also fail to see the environmental downside. African nations are notoriously bad at building and maintaining infrastructures, so they pose a very insignificant threat to the global environment.

All that Prof. Murray says is that fewer children born, will create human misery in the affected nations, not environmental problems.

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micahc

the more educated and affluent a society the lower the population growth.  i don't think it's a bad thing but it will create new problems. Japan is probably the best model. One disadvantage Japan has, its not really a pro immigration nation. one of America's secret economic weapon is immigration despite all the rhetoric.  

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OverSword
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, zep73 said:

How is that a bad thing?? We should celebrate!

In order for socialism/welfare to work you must have a constant increase in working age population.  In other words when you retire prepare to starve and freeze if you've bought in to government lies.

Edited by OverSword
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OverSword
45 minutes ago, zep73 said:

Regarding population growth in southern Africa, I also fail to see the environmental downside. African nations are notoriously bad at building and maintaining infrastructures, so they pose a very insignificant threat to the global environment.

Except that China's biggest export industry is coal power plants built in Africa.  Get ready for a huge increase in carbon emissions.  That's also why trump wants to prop up coal mining.

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zep73
7 minutes ago, OverSword said:

In order for socialism/welfare to work you must have a constant increase in working age population.  In other words when you retire prepare to starve and freeze if you've bought in to government lies.

I can see how it would end that way in a braindead American society, but there is a much larger, intelligent world outside.

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zep73
8 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Except that China's biggest export industry is coal power plants built in Africa.  Get ready for a huge increase in carbon emissions.  That's also why trump wants to prop up coal mining.

Show me where you know this from (sources), so I can see if it's truly a problem.

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spartan max2
6 minutes ago, zep73 said:

I can see how it would end that way in a braindead American society, but there is a much larger, intelligent world outside.

Socialized systems require there to be more young people then old people or atleast a 1:1 ratio.

It's why social security in the U.S is at risk. 

It's why it's a risk for most nation's. Just think about how healthcare works.

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zep73
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Socialized systems require there to be more young people then old people or atleast a 1:1 ratio.

It's why social security in the U.S is at risk. 

It's why it's a risk for most nation's. Just think about how healthcare works.

I didn't mean any offence. I just saw a blunt attack on "socialism", and wanted to point out that there are ways to address problems associated to tax supported elder care. And if you're fanatically against it, you will not be able to see any solutions.
A lot has happened since McCarthyism. Entire nations, most of them allies, have thrived with "socialism" in some form or another.

Edited by zep73
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Hugh Mungus
23 minutes ago, zep73 said:

I can see how it would end that way in a braindead American society, but there is a much larger, intelligent world outside.

Not really an American problem. Its far more of a European problem, or any western country which had a "baby boom" after WW2, with declining birth rates since the boom.

 We learnt about this in high school. The country we focused on was Italy and it was predicted that every Italian tax payer would have the burden of 1 retired citizen each (by 2030 i believe). Normally there are far more tax payers than retirees, which pays for the health and living costs for those who are dependent on government superannuation.

The way western countries have been delaying this tax burden on its citizens is to import more tax payers (normally the best and brightest) from under developed countries. This has negatives for both the host country and the country of origin of the immigrants. The country of origin loses its best citizens, preventing these countries from developing in the short term. The host country finds it's social infrastructure overwhelmed, with hospital/schools overcrowded with the new arrivals, leading to longer wait times or more infrastructure required immediately.

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zep73
16 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Not really an American problem. Its far more of a European problem, or any western country which had a "baby boom" after WW2, with declining birth rates since the boom.

 We learnt about this in high school. The country we focused on was Italy and it was predicted that every Italian tax payer would have the burden of 1 retired citizen each (by 2030 i believe). Normally there are far more tax payers than retirees, which pays for the health and living costs for those who are dependent on government superannuation.

The way western countries have been delaying this tax burden on its citizens is to import more tax payers (normally the best and brightest) from under developed countries. This has negatives for both the host country and the country of origin of the immigrants. The country of origin loses its best citizens, preventing these countries from developing in the short term. The host country finds it's social infrastructure overwhelmed, with hospital/schools overcrowded with the new arrivals, leading to longer wait times or more infrastructure required immediately.

Marx tried to predict how societies would turn out if they did "this" or if they did "that". He was wrong. So are your sources. We can't predict that shlt!

And by the way. Things are pretty well in most of Europe (not counting the corona crisis of course).

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zep73

@OverSword I did not mean any offence to you by the words "braindead American society". Just because you live in one, does not make you one.

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The Wistman

Oh great.  Crashing fertility rates now.  Things are looking more like 'Children of Men' every day.

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Hugh Mungus
22 minutes ago, zep73 said:

Marx tried to predict how societies would turn out if they did "this" or if they did "that". He was wrong. So are your sources. We can't predict that shlt!

Has there not been a decline in birth rates throughout Europe since the baby boom? Has there not been a massive increase in immigration since 1970?

It was occurring when i was at high school and is still happening 15 years later. It's not a prediction when you can see it in real time. 

 

BTW, Marx was demonstrably wrong on almost every count, no disagreement here

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zep73
2 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Has there not been a decline in birth rates throughout Europe since the baby boom? Has there not been a massive increase in immigration since 1970?

It was occurring when i was at high school and is still happening 15 years later. It's not a prediction when you can see it in real time.

Yes, but the nations are dealing with the problems. Well in fact. Especially in northern, central and western Europe.

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Hugh Mungus
Just now, zep73 said:

Yes, but the nations are dealing with the problems. Well in fact. Especially in northern, central and western Europe.

at the moment yes, but the choices you will have to make with an aging population (and low birth rates) are:

a lower tax payer to retiree ratio (resulting in poorer treatment of those in retirement ); Or

More immigration from non western countries (resulting in possible culture clashes or a change in host countries culture)

 

Just because things are good now doesn't mean they will be forever. Not to mention the  idea of picking the best and brightest from third world countries and offering them a home in your country, which deprives the opportunity for the third world country to reap the benefits of having productive citizens. Seems rather "colonial" to me

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zep73
15 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Just because things are good now doesn't mean they will be forever.

Things are good now because they started to deal with things two decades ago. They are ahead. They know what could happen. They have known for many years.
You speak as if you're watching ants running around with no clue of what's coming.

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OverSword
2 hours ago, zep73 said:

I can see how it would end that way in a braindead American society, but there is a much larger, intelligent world outside.

When you have more people drawing on benefits than paying in it doesn’t matter where you are.

2 hours ago, zep73 said:

Show me where you know this from (sources), so I can see if it's truly a problem.

Maybe tomorrow I’m on a phone. Or google China building power plants in Africa 

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