The head VD Spewer in the US

[Zaphod222]

Just now, Golden Duck said:

It's gone, huh?  Famous last words

 

 

What does your image refer to?

[bee]

 

If there is any free speech left in the future..... history will probably look back to these times and reflect how counterproductive and unnecessary lockdowns were.... and how much 'we' got wrong... (and how much politics was used to influence science  and the other way round ?)...

came across this yesterday and a different view of herd immunity is discussed with different percentages needed to achieve it ...

ie it could be around 20% infection rate not the higher percentages that are used,,,
 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/72hi9jfcqfct1n9/Haaretz-20Jul20_ENGLISH 12082020 v3.pdf?dl=0

Recently,Science, one of the leading scientific journals, published an article that highlighted the absurdity underlying the calculation of the 60 percent threshold. The authors state an obvious fact: As far as contact rates are concerned, people do not interact identically with other people; some have more contacts than others. For example, a cashier at a supermarket and a taxi driver meet many more people than the average retiree. Since people with many social contacts are key factors intransmitting the virus, their immunity will contribute to stopping the spread of the virus more thanpeople who have little contact with others. The former get infected sooner and become immune faster than people with low contact rate,so the spread of the virus reaches saturation at a level that is significantly lower than 60%. Again, the latter is founded on the false assumption of uniform social contacts for all members of a population.

 

The most significant evidence – decidedly refuting the need for 60% infection rate – is pre-immunity.For example, COVID-19 has several relatives (other coronaviruses) to which the population had beenexposed, and such prior exposure can provide immunity to a significant segment of the population.Back in April, two of us wrote an article about the postulated nature of this immunity and the statisticalevidence that pointed to its existence. We noted that in several closed communities that underwenttesting, the infection rate was always capped at 20%, which statistically aligns with maximal infectionrate in these communities rather than recurring coincidences. About a month later, a group ofresearchers published corroborating evidence inCell, one of the most prestigious journals in the lifesciences. About 60% of people in California who had never been exposed to COVID-19, had immunememory cells that recognized the virus and are therefore likely to provide immunity. Moreover, astudy in Germany showed that such immunity could reach a level as high as 81% of the population.We assume that the situation in Israel is even better – for example, due to the age distribution(younger) and the number of children per household (higher). The above figure implies that less than20% of the Israeli population is susceptible to an infection with the virus, while the vast majority is immune. A survey of cellular immunity is urgently needed to estimate the level of this type ofimmunity in Israel and in other countries. 

 

[Golden Duck]

3 minutes ago, Zaphod222 said:

What does your image refer to?

Daily deaths in Australia from late May to late June - zero deaths at all.  Then the second wave came.

[Zaphod222]

24 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Daily deaths in Australia from late May to late June - zero deaths at all.  Then the second wave came.

OK, that is Australia with the hard lockdown policy. It is safe to assume that they would be done with Corona now like Sweden is, if they had adopted the Swedish approach.

Of course, initially nobody knew what the best approach is. But by now, that dictator in Melbourne should know better.

[Golden Duck]

15 minutes ago, Zaphod222 said:

OK, that is Australia with the hard lockdown policy. It is safe to assume that they would be done with Corona now like Sweden is, if they had adopted the Swedish approach.

Of course, initially nobody knew what the best approach is. But by now, that dictator in Melbourne should know better.

Based on less than nine-tenths of one per cent, it's not safe to make the assumptions you suggest. No lockdown just means less rules.  Swedes are still practicing measures to reduce spread. As I said earlier, they're compliant,  they trust their government.

The "dictator" didn't learn from Midnight Oil. Anne Dandrews is having his own "Pink Bats."

[Zaphod222]

4 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Based on less than nine-tenths of one per cent, it's not safe to make the assumptions you suggest. No lockdown just means less rules.  Swedes are still practicing measures to reduce spread. As I said earlier, they're compliant,  they trust their government.

The New Swedes don´t.

[Golden Duck]

8 minutes ago, Zaphod222 said:

The New Swedes don´t.

Fourth best Corruption Perception Index in the world.

And their restrictions don't seem terribly lax anyway.

https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus

Edited September 8, 2020 by Golden Duck

[Zaphod222]

3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Fourth best Corruption Perception Index in the world.

And their restrictions don't seem terribly lax anyway.

https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus

LOL, the "New Swedes" is translated term for the migrants that have flooded Sweden in the last years. They have quite transformed the country, you better believe they don´t give a hoot about what the government tells them. As for the old natives, yes, they are quite compliant. And yes, the government asked distancing, masks and all the other familiar stuff, but there was no lockdown and no curfiews, Australia style. All businesses remained open, no government apparachik got to decide if they were essentiaal or not, and very certainly the police did not smash doors and arrest pregnant women for the crime of,,,,, writing a facebook post that the governor did not like.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Zaphod222
mistype

[stereologist]

7 hours ago, Zaphod222 said:

There is no such thing as "the US". There are 50 states with different governments, different policies, and different population situations. Therefore, the Corona statistics also vary widely, from extremely high (e.g. New York) to extremely low (e.g. Montana).

Taking an average number for the US is as meaningful as an average number for Europe or South America.

 

There is the US. Claiming " 50 states with different governments, different policies, and different population situations" is a joke. Take New York state. It had a high area and a huge area with few cases.

The average number is useful. It tells us quite a bit. Just because you don't know that means little.

Besides your response had nothing to do with what I posted.

Sweden never reached herd immunity. That is abundantly clear.  You posted an article suggesting Trump did a lousy job. Go ahead and explain that.

[stereologist]

6 hours ago, Zaphod222 said:

You are right. But if the death rate is zero, the question is moot anyway, Be it herd immunity, or improved treatment, or weakening of the virus, the problem has gone. As is the case in Sweden.

The death rate is not zero. Already posted the evidence for that.

The problem is not gone and as I already posted Sweden is very concerned about a second wave due to the poor way the first wave went.

[stereologist]

5 hours ago, bee said:

If there is any free speech left in the future..... history will probably look back to these times and reflect how counterproductive and unnecessary lockdowns were.... and how much 'we' got wrong... (and how much politics was used to influence science  and the other way round ?)...

came across this yesterday and a different view of herd immunity is discussed with different percentages needed to achieve it ...

ie it could be around 20% infection rate not the higher percentages that are used,,,
 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/72hi9jfcqfct1n9/Haaretz-20Jul20_ENGLISH 12082020 v3.pdf?dl=0

It's another unpublished opinion piece. there are so many floating around.

It employs gross mis-characterizations such as the reasoning behind short lasting immunity. Scientists in general did not believe the reinfections as claimed in this article. It misses the issue of quickly fading anti-bodies.

They also claim the existence of something no one has shown to exist: pre-immunity. Notie that they do not provide references for an things they mention about other people's work. That's  a red flag anyone should notice in an article claiming to be scientific.

I don't see this as anything other than a political opinion piece dressed up with some claims of science background.

[stereologist]

What is clear is that those with a political motive only look at deaths and do not look at the complete picture of this pandemic which includes permanent organ damage even to those that are asymptomatic.

Here are the daily cases for Sweden.

The pandemic is still active in Sweden. It will continue. As days shorten and people spend more time indoors in winter will there be an increase in cases? We shall see how Sweden handles the situation.

What is clear is that no place on Earth has herd immunity. It isn't going to happen for a long time. If immunity is short lived as it is with other coronaviruses, then this is just the start until an effective drug or vaccine is found.

[stereologist]

This is to bee and here article that mentioned pre-immunity. I had heard about the idea that there might be some pre-immunity and found this.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200817/Pre-COVID-19-coronavirus-immunity-does-not-protect-against-SARS-CoV-2.aspx

Quote

A recent study by researchers in France that's currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server claims that having previous immunity against common coronaviruses (alpha and beta) cannot protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

That was Aug 17, and here is another article from July 25

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/

Quote

“Our team also tested uninfected healthy individuals and found SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in more than 50 percent of them. This could be due to cross-reactive immunity obtained from exposure to other coronaviruses, such as those causing the common cold, or presently unknown animal coronaviruses. It is important to understand if this could explain why some individuals are able to better control the infection,” said Professor Antonio Bertoletti, from Duke-NUS’ Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) program, who is the corresponding author of this study.

The existence of pre-immunity may exist, or might not exist. It might not stop the disease, but may lessen its effects. More studies need to be done.

[Golden Duck]

1 hour ago, Zaphod222 said:

LOL, the "New Swedes" is translated term for the migrants that have flooded Sweden in the last years. They have quite transformed the country, you better believe they don´t give a hoot about what the government tells them. As for the old natives, yes, they are quite compliant. And yes, the government asked distancing, masks and all the other familiar stuff, but there was no lockdown and no curfiews, Australia style. All businesses remained open, no government apparachik got to decide if they were essentiaal or not, and very certainly the police did not smash doors and arrest pregnant women for the crime of,,,,, writing a facebook post that the governor did not like.

You write for Lonely Planet?

[Indiogene]

6 months into the pandemic, the USA continues to be the hardest hit nation in the COVID-19 pandemic, although Brazil and India are catching up in numbers of confirmed cases and high death tolls. The 10-12 other nations in rank of order of the most infections are: Russia (over a million cases), Mexico (might be #4 due to mass miscounts and lack of available testing), Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Spain, Iran, Chile, Pakistan and the UK. It's mind-boggling for a developed country, a (lone?) global superpower and with the most scientists per nation has proved itself incapable of controlling a pandemic, however epidemiologists expects this crisis will end a year from now (Sep 2021 at the earliest), but only the USA has 2 high spikes and the curve wasn't flattened at the first place when many states which locked down too late decided to reopen too early between last April and July. 

 

 

[stereologist]

Seems that Trump's tell lies front man is being rebuked by his former colleagues.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/former-stanford-colleagues-warn-dr-172400550.html

Quote

A group of 78 researchers and doctors from Stanford Medical School took aim this week at Dr. Scott Atlas, the expert President Donald Trump recently added to the White House pandemic response task force, for embracing and peddling what they described as "falsehoods and misrepresentations of science" in his public musings about the coronavirus.

[stereologist]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/former-stanford-colleagues-warn-dr-172400550.html

Quote

In a "Dear Colleagues" letter penned Wednesday, the Stanford experts wrote that they have a "moral and ethical responsibility" to push back on Atlas' controversial claims about mitigating the spread of the coronavirus, which they characterized as "opinions and statements [that] run counter to established science" and "undermine public health authorities and the credible science that guides effective public health policy."

Atlas is pretending he is not there to foster a situation in which there is unrestricted infections.

Quote

Last month, the Washington Post reported that Atlas advocated for the administration to embrace natural herd immunity, citing five unnamed sources. Atlas vehemently denied the report.

Is he Trump's Mengele?

 

Quote

They concluded their letter by emphasizing the need to exercise "science-based decision-making," and warning that any policy proposals that fall short of that standard could undermine progress in combatting the disease.

"Failure to follow the science – or deliberately misrepresenting the science," the letter continues, "will lead to immense avoidable harm."

Follow the evidence and don't ed up being a statistic in Trump's bank account.

[stereologist]

More on Atlas makes him look more and more like a dangerous kook.

https://news.yahoo.com/op-ed-pseudo-expertise-not-181644743.html

Quote

Atlas has recommended less testing for COVID-19 and less mask wearing in indoor public settings. He has disregarded important nonfatal health risks of COVID-19, such as serious heart abnormalities found in many recovered patients and even in young athletes. He has falsely suggested that children cannot transmit the disease. And he has promoted infecting people he deems at low risk for poor outcomes, but offered no effective means to prevent asymptomatic viral spread to family members or vulnerable contacts. Although he denies that his strategy is to maximize the number of infections in order to achieve “herd immunity” — the point at which epidemic spread slows because a high enough percentage of the population has already been infected — his recommendations have the same effect.

Here is more on the kook Atlas.

Quote

Scientists do not agree on how best to combat this pandemic. That is the nature of science: It moves forward through vigorous debate. But all good scientists share an allegiance to resolving disagreements with facts, data and logic. Health scientists share an additional obligation to minimize suffering and death. Several of Atlas’ positions fail these tests of scientific legitimacy.

One of those positions is now embodied in new recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The agency’s revised guidelines discourage testing of asymptomatic people with potential exposure to the coronavirus. When questioned, Atlas described the new recommendations as “common sense,” telling the Palm Beach Post: “The goal of all this testing is to save lives, not to document asymptomatic people.”

 

Quote

We[ Stanford University School of Medicine ] are alarmed and distressed that the scientific reputation of our institution — or any institution — could be used to lend pseudoscientific legitimacy to manifestly dangerous and discriminatory public health practices. We are further dismayed that the current political environment permits pseudo-experts to marginalize real experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci and many at the CDC who have spent their lives protecting the public from scourges like COVID-19.

 

[stereologist]

Dr Atlas, head of spewing VD about the pandemic, has been quiet since his former colleagues called him out on his spewing viral disinformation.

 

[stereologist]

https://www.newsweek.com/bill-gates-trump-administration-scott-atlas-crackpot-theories-1531873

Quote

Bill Gates Says Trump Administration Hired Scott Atlas Because 'He Agrees With Their Crackpot Theories'

Quote

In the STAT interview, Gates said the U.S. outbreak "has been a mismanaged situation every step of the way." He went on: "It's shocking. It's unbelievable—the fact that we would be among the worst in the world."