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stereologist

Has the US reached herd immunnity

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stereologist
Quote

Fauci Pushes Back on Herd Immunity at Senate Hearing

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937992?src=mkm_covid_update_200924_mscpedit_&uac=389284HY&impID=2585139&faf=1#vp_2

These were quite interesting hearings with a lot of questions asked answered.

Quote

Paul, an ophthalmologist by training, questioned whether herd immunity was responsible for New York's recent success in curbing the death toll of the virus. Fauci then said he wanted to challenge Paul on that point.

 

"I would like to be able to do this because this happens with Senator Paul all the time. You are not listening to what the director of the CDC said," Fauci answered. He noted that immunity in New York has been estimated to be about 22%.

"If you believe that 22% is herd immunity, I believe you are alone" in that view, Fauci said.

Quote

On Tuesday, Senate Democrats, including Patty Murray of Washington, introduced a bill called the Science and Transparency Over Politics (STOP) Act that would create a task force to examine whether there was political interference with federal scientific agencies' responses to the pandemic. These reports would be released to Senate committees of jurisdiction and could be made public, Murray and colleagues said in a news release.

 

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stereologist

The idea of herd immunity is always popping up with people suggesting that Sweden might have reached herd immunity. Unlikely since they claim only 1% or less of the population was infected.

 

Some people point out declining deaths in some nations and suggest the graph shows herd immunity reached. That is not an indicator of herd immunity. You can't see herd immunity on a graph unless the graph is showing you percent of population immune to a disease either their immunity gained by an infection or through a vaccine or through a drug. So far there are no drugs to act as a prophylaxis. The estimated 60 to 70% immunity has not been reached by any country through infection. Vaccines are coming, but they are not here yet.

 

 

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razman

I don't know but Wisconsin just issued a public health emergency for a significant surge in cases , going from hundreds a day to thousands. Well maybe was hundreds , then got up over a thousand , now about 2,350 .  So probably not.

 

Edited by razman
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Hugh Mungus
8 minutes ago, stereologist said:

The idea of herd immunity is always popping up with people suggesting that Sweden might have reached herd immunity. Unlikely since they claim only 1% or less of the population was infected.

 

Some people point out declining deaths in some nations and suggest the graph shows herd immunity reached. That is not an indicator of herd immunity. You can't see herd immunity on a graph unless the graph is showing you percent of population immune to a disease either their immunity gained by an infection or through a vaccine or through a drug. So far there are no drugs to act as a prophylaxis. The estimated 60 to 70% immunity has not been reached by any country through infection. Vaccines are coming, but they are not here yet.

 

 

why do you think the 2nd wave outbreak throughout Europe has a far lower death rate than the 1st wave?

 

 

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stereologist

Is it a second wave in Europe or another surge in the first wave?

 

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Jon the frog
59 minutes ago, stereologist said:

The idea of herd immunity is always popping up with people suggesting that Sweden might have reached herd immunity. Unlikely since they claim only 1% or less of the population was infected.

 

Some people point out declining deaths in some nations and suggest the graph shows herd immunity reached. That is not an indicator of herd immunity. You can't see herd immunity on a graph unless the graph is showing you percent of population immune to a disease either their immunity gained by an infection or through a vaccine or through a drug. So far there are no drugs to act as a prophylaxis. The estimated 60 to 70% immunity has not been reached by any country through infection. Vaccines are coming, but they are not here yet.

 

 

The young are a bigger proportion of the infected right now because of school return at most place, ratio of death is going down because of it...

Edited by Jon the frog
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Hugh Mungus
29 minutes ago, stereologist said:

Is it a second wave in Europe or another surge in the first wave?

 

The graphs i have seen certainly show an increase in cases since July, but the death rate is fairly stable. Maybe there is a lag?

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razman

I just read that some people are sending their kids to school even knowing they have covid. Not sure if thats true or not , just something i read.

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Hugh Mungus
4 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

The graphs i have seen certainly show an increase in cases since July, but the death rate is fairly stable. Maybe there is a lag?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8768247/England-Scotland-Wales-declare-33-new-Covid-19-deaths.html

image 1.jpg

image 2.jpg

 

Looks like a 2nd wave to me

Edited by Hugh Mungus
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stereologist
3 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

The graphs i have seen certainly show an increase in cases since July, but the death rate is fairly stable. Maybe there is a lag?

That's interesting. Locally there is a big spike due to the restart of the local university.

I think another issue is that the care given to those that are ill has greatly improved. Standard care has a better idea of what to expect and is prepared for those situations.

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stereologist
3 minutes ago, razman said:

I just read that some people are sending their kids to school even knowing they have covid. Not sure if thats true or not , just something i read.

That could be the case. People send their kids to school with the flu ad colds and other illnesses to avoid staying home from work.

Many people are feeling unable to take a chance with their jobs - my opinion of course.

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Hugh Mungus
2 minutes ago, stereologist said:

That's interesting. Locally there is a big spike due to the restart of the local university.

I think another issue is that the care given to those that are ill has greatly improved. Standard care has a better idea of what to expect and is prepared for those situations.

I heard a theory that countries which have had low flu death rates in the previous 2 years (like Sweden and the UK) had high death rates from Covid with the first wave, and that countries with higher death rates from Flu (like Norway) had far lower death rates from Covid.

 

Interesting theory. And it might point to the fact that it's vulnerable people dying and once they are dead, the rates of death will drop considerably going forward.

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stereologist

Another possibility might be that we are detecting more cases today because testing is more available and faster.

These graphs are pretty good shown side by side and reveal that deaths are fr down for the same number of cases.

In our area it is easier to get tested and the test results are coming back faster.

Maybe people are more aware of the dangers and are going to medical staff earlier which is important in surviving the disease.

 

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stereologist
Just now, Hugh Mungus said:

I heard a theory that countries which have had low flu death rates in the previous 2 years (like Sweden and the UK) had high death rates from Covid with the first wave, and that countries with higher death rates from Flu (like Norway) had far lower death rates from Covid.

 

Interesting theory. And it might point to the fact that it's vulnerable people dying and once they are dead, the rates of death will drop considerably going forward.

That's possible if we only examine deaths. COVID-19 does appear to permanently injure a significant number of people who survive the infection even if they were asymptomatic.

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Hugh Mungus
5 minutes ago, stereologist said:

That's possible if we only examine deaths. COVID-19 does appear to permanently injure a significant number of people who survive the infection even if they were asymptomatic.

Fair point. But the focus of the lockdown is to "save lives" and the above graphs are indicative of most European countries. Death rates are falling quickly

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stereologist
1 minute ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Fair point. But the focus of the lockdown is to "save lives" and the above graphs are indicative of most European countries. Death rates are falling quickly

So many factors have been mentioned so far in this thread concerning why the death rate is lower and I suppose we are only scratching the surface:

  • Mainly young people are getting
  • People sending sick kids to school are creating infections in other kids
  • Lag in reporting
  • Improved health care
  • Deaths are mainly due to people not killed by the flu
  • Better testing methods and available testing

But the death rate is not an indicator of herd immunity. Although we might see the UK as not in another surge, but a second wave we also see that cases are not declining. That increase in cases shows that herd immunity is not here.

 

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Hugh Mungus
Just now, stereologist said:

Although we might see the UK as not in another surge, but a second wave we also see that cases are not declining. That increase in cases shows that herd immunity is not here.

 

Agreed. My point was, is there any need for heard immunity or vaccines if deaths keep going down. Sorry if i took your thread off topic. I just wanted your thoughts on this as you appear to be more aware of the science.

 

But it is a separate topic to heard immunity and clearly the world isn't there yet, even if it achievable.

 

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stereologist
3 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Agreed. My point was, is there any need for heard immunity or vaccines if deaths keep going down. Sorry if i took your thread off topic. I just wanted your thoughts on this as you appear to be more aware of the science.

 

But it is a separate topic to heard immunity and clearly the world isn't there yet, even if it achievable.

 

Good question and an important related topic. Thanks.

Deaths are going down. You made me realize another factor. I appreciate that. There are people who are being extra careful today not to be infected. They might be transplant patients or cancer survivors or dialysis patients that cannot afford to get sick. The end run without a vaccine or other means of being protected would be to lock them up for a long time.

All of these issues are rather complicated and you have helped expose that, which is good and I think appropriate.

I will get the vaccine. I always get vaccinated. I protect myself and I protect others in doing that simple task. I don't have to worry visiting someone in their 70s, 80s, or 90s. I don't have to worry about visiting a cancer survivor and I know a few. With the 200 efforts out there we may get something soon which will be safe and effective.

Can we ever eliminate this disease? No. The reason is that it infects animals as well. Smallpox and polio are human only diseases. That's why we can eliminate them. As we have seen some cats and dogs and mink, a weasel, have been infected. That may allow this virus SARS-CoV-2 to exist in an animal and come back to reinfect people. Of course over half of the diseases are zoonotic, i.e. jump from other species to humans

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third_eye

Medical staffs and doctors are better prepared and the system is better provided and equipped as well as better informed to deal with the local logistics specific to the area or region in question. 

Perhaps infected patients and relatives are also more cooperative contributing to better detection of positives from asymptomatic cases. 

~

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the13bats

So ill babbling my 2 cents,

Death rates going down? Well, better knowledge of jow to care for the ones hit hard,

But if we have say 1m people and a well mix, folks at highest risk died they are gone, so the combination of better care and lower risk getting it = lower death rate.

Im concerned about cold and flu season i read somewhere a person might just get covid and season flu double whammy, very scary.

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stereologist

Picking up more information this morning on the rise in new cases this call. It's more possibilities or variables in trying to figure out what is happening.

  • Labor day holiday in the US meant gatherings. Not sure about such gatherings in other parts of the world. In the US it is early September.
  • Cooling weather has people spending more time indoors which is why winter is the flu season in both hemispheres.
  • The virus may be mutating to a more contagious form.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/coronavirus-mutate-contagious-study-us-cases?utm_term=OZY&utm_campaign=pdb&utm_content=Friday_09.25.20&utm_source=Campaigner&utm_medium=email

Quote

The Covid-19 virus is continuing to mutate throughout the course of the pandemic, with experts believing it is probably becoming more contagious, as coronavirus cases in the US have started to rise once again, according to new research.

Quote

Public health experts say it is too early to tell whether the rise in cases is a brief uptick as a consequence of Labor Day holiday gatherings in early September or whether it is the start of an uptrend as the weather starts to cool in many regions and people head indoors. Experts have warned that both events, in addition to K-12 schools and college campuses reopening, could lead to a rise in cases.

At a hearing before Congress on Wedensday, Dr Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), emphasized data that shows that young Americans have been driving the rise in cases. According to Redfield, people aged 18 to 25 have made up 26% of new coronavirus cases – the largest of any age group.

Redfield also said more than 90% of the American population remains susceptible to Covid-19, crushing any belief about widespread immunity developing.

 

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stereologist

Going directly to the report about the genetic changes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

Quote

Coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are relatively stable as viruses go, because they have a proofreading mechanism as they replicate. But every mutation is a roll of the dice, and with transmission so widespread in the United States — which continues to see tens of thousands of new, confirmed infections daily — the virus has had abundant opportunities to change, potentially with troublesome consequences, said study author James Musser of Houston Methodist Hospital.

Quote

David Morens, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reviewed the new study and said the findings point to the strong possibility that the virus, as it has moved through the population, has become more transmissible, and that this “may have implications for our ability to control it.”

Morens noted that this is a single study, and “you don’t want to over-interpret what this means.” But the virus, he said, could potentially be responding — through random mutations — to such interventions as mask-wearing and social distancing, Morens said Wednesday.

“Wearing masks, washing our hands, all those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” said Morens, senior adviser to Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the NIAID.

Some important items to pull out of this report of the study.

  • Still in peer review
  • Don't over interpret any one study, which means keep an eye out for similar studies
  • The health experts' advice on avoiding this virus do work

If you read the link you will see that not everyone thinks this report is that important. The comment I am thinking about is from a fellow researcher.

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stereologist

Wave 1 or wave 2. It' still the first eave in the US.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/938090?src=mkm_covid_update_200925_mscpedit_&uac=389284HY&impID=2588036&faf=1

Quote

Anthony Fauci, MD, says talk about a second wave of the coronavirus is premature because the United States is still dealing with the first one.

 

The idea of a second wave is based on the 1918 flu pandemic, when many cases were seen in the spring, he says. The spring cases "literally disappeared" and were followed by a spike in flu cases in the fall, he told CNN's Sanjay Gupta, MD, on Thursday in an online conversation organized by Emory University.

"Rather than say, 'A second wave,' why don't we say, 'Are we prepared for the challenge of the fall and the winter?'" said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force.

 

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Doug1029

Are you immune to the common cold?  Nearly everybody I know has had one.  And nearly everybody gets another, and another, and another....

Theoretically, one should become immune to a virus once it has attacked you.  But that doesn't work with the common cold.  Why?

There are over 100 strains of the common cold.  Each one is functionally a different disease.  Becoming immune to one strain doesn't help you resist another.  There are still 99+ strains that can attack you.  Thus, herd immunity to the common cold appears out of reach.

 

There are 16 strains of covid19, divided into five families.  Both covid19 and the common cold are Coronaviruses, hence the early confusion about covid not being any worse than the common cold.  It is beginning to look as if acquiring covid19 and becoming immune to one strain of it does nothing to protect one from the other fifteen strains.  And that could mean that herd immunity to covid19 is out of reach.  And that may also mean that a vaccine is out of reach.

 

Donald Trump's strategy for dealing with covid is to get everybody infected so they will become immune.  When about 70% of the population becomes immune, the disease will fizzle out.  BUT:  there are sixteen strains.  It will be a long time before 70% of the population are immune to all sixteen strains.  How long?  In seven months covid has infected about 15% of US citizens.  To reach 70%, the pandemic must continue 4.7 times as long, or 33 more months.  Can the economy survive another 33 months of this?

Consider the numbers:  the US has 330 million citizens.  70% of that is 231 million people who must get covid to make Trump's strategy work.  The mortality rate, the proportion that die after having contracted the disease, is about 2.5%.  That's 3.46 million people that Donald Trump wants to kill to implement his covid strategy.

 

The figures I have just given are extremely conservation.  I have heard estimates of 6.9 million deaths over the next four to five years if this strategy is followed.

 

I don't think we need to plan on the epidemic dropping off until late April at the earliest and then only if Biden's program is implemented.

But late April is seven months away.  We are now at 204,000 dead.  We can expect to reach 240,000+ by Election Day and 300,000 by the end of the year.  Add another 40,000 by Inauguration Day.  And THAT is when we will actually start fighting the disease.

 

The second wave will start when cold weather arrives and people start staying indoors more.  Colder weather is already arriving along the northern tier of states.  The second wave will work its way south along with the weather.  And that will likely render all my nice projections hopelessly low.

Doug

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aearluin
On 9/25/2020 at 2:06 AM, Hugh Mungus said:

I heard a theory that countries which have had low flu death rates in the previous 2 years (like Sweden and the UK) had high death rates from Covid with the first wave, and that countries with higher death rates from Flu (like Norway) had far lower death rates from Covid.

 

Interesting theory. And it might point to the fact that it's vulnerable people dying and once they are dead, the rates of death will drop considerably going forward.

I totally agree. It does look like that. Those who were likely to die mostly died already, hence the much lower death rate now than in the spring.

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