Kelly Cahill UFO case continues to intrigue

[psyche101]

On 10/23/2020 at 3:30 PM, ufoguy said:

Because there were NO PLANES....and there were NO WITNESSES that said they saw and heard planes that night...

Watch 7:30 - 18:30

 

Yes there were planes. A busy airport resides in Phoenix. There was confirmed military exercises n the area 

Yes, there definitely were planes in the sky that night. Actor Kurt Russell was one of those pilots in fact. 

Your claim is outright wrong, easily proven to be wrong.

As for witnesses, look up Rich Contry and Mitch Stanley or have a closer look at Tim Leys description, which is describing individual lights, not one big object despite his personal opinion. 

You're out of your league here. 

[ufoguy]

On 10/24/2020 at 2:22 PM, stereologist said:

You are clueless. The videos are of inident 2 and you are talking about incident 1. There was a video of incident 1 and it shows the lights move relative to each other.

Please learn about the case before further embarrassing yourself.

I cant understand how u can dismiss witnesses that are describing a large v shaped craft in detail....

 

Watch 7:30 - 18:30

 

[the13bats]

9 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

I cant understand how u can dismiss witnesses that are describing a large v shaped craft in detail....

 

Watch 7:30 - 18:30

 

Ufoguy give me a brief preferably "yes or no" answer to this question,

In the newspaper tabloid you posted above is the picture of the black inverted "V" with lights an actual picture of the craft?

[ufoguy]

Just now, the13bats said:

Ufoguy give me a brief preferably "yes or no" answer to this question,

In the newspaper tabloid you posted above is the picture of the black inverted "V" with lights an actual picture of the craft?

No that was just the witnesses description of the craft....but the event was about a large v shape craft none the less.

[the13bats]

11 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

No that was just the witnesses description of the craft....but the event was about a large v shape craft none the less.

Ty, did you know i have seen that same pic used countless times as smoking gun proof of aliens visiting earth, we had a guy here who didnt as far as i recall used that pic but he did use other know fakes claiming they were real.

 

[quillius]

On 10/23/2020 at 12:24 AM, ufoguy said:

they were thousands of reports that night....thats why it was on the news...

Hi UFOguy, this is a good starting point.......

after many hours of searching I haven't been able to come up with these reports, do you have access to anything that can confirm or show reports of the night in question.

please do not post articles or claims of 'thousands' or anything that lists reports that came through after that night.

There are certainly two events circa 8pm and 10pm.

The 10pm event we have footage of, these are explained as flares. The flares have small parachutes so once they open it then takes several minutes to reach the ground, from a distance the decent will look almost stationery to the naked eye.

 

Anyhow, if we can start with first hand accounts /reports of the night that would be helpful as I tried and failed.

[+Desertrat56]

22 hours ago, astrobeing said:

The Moon affects the tides twice a day regardless of its phase because they are caused by gravitational pull, not by reflected light. Also, the oceans are very very large and in some cases thousands of feet deep, yet the tides at most are two or three dozen feet high. This should show you how little effect the Moon has on things here on Earth.

And where are your scientific studies to support your theory?

You are the one who brought science up.

[quillius]

5 hours ago, quillius said:

Hi UFOguy, this is a good starting point.......

after many hours of searching I haven't been able to come up with these reports, do you have access to anything that can confirm or show reports of the night in question.

please do not post articles or claims of 'thousands' or anything that lists reports that came through after that night.

There are certainly two events circa 8pm and 10pm.

The 10pm event we have footage of, these are explained as flares. The flares have small parachutes so once they open it then takes several minutes to reach the ground, from a distance the decent will look almost stationery to the naked eye.

 

Anyhow, if we can start with first hand accounts /reports of the night that would be helpful as I tried and failed.

apologies for the spelling mistakes:

descent

stationary

(wouldn't be so bad but I get annoyed when reading other posts with such errors....)

[astrobeing]

1 hour ago, Desertrat56 said:

You are the one who brought science up.

Yes, how dare I bring science to the discussion! How inappropriate of me! So you never thought science might have something to say about this???

Here are just a few of the studies I found in about ten minutes.

https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0033-2909.97.2.286 "

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.2466/pr0.1988.63.3.923

https://www.straightdope.com/21342493/what-s-the-link-between-the-moon-and-menstruation

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM197901113000223

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418782/

https://www.bmj.com/content/359/bmj.j5367

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10818-007-9016-3

https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0033-2909.85.5.1123

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160506105645.htm

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8rr3m49z

[astrobeing]

8 hours ago, ufoguy said:

No that was just the witnesses description of the craft....but the event was about a large v shape craft none the less.

Or five planes flying in a V formation which I've seen many times at air shows.

[+Desertrat56]

42 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

Or five planes flying in a V formation which I've seen many times at air shows.

Why are you even bothering reading or posting in a UFO thread?   You need some way to boost your self esteem?

[psyche101]

15 hours ago, ufoguy said:

No that was just the witnesses description of the craft....but the event was about a large v shape craft none the less.

That's Tim Leys description.

He didn't realise he was actually describing individual lights in his description, but he did. 

As such, he did not describe a V shape craft, he claimed to see one, and then described individual plane lights. 

Leys statement.

We noticed that one of the lights on the far side arm seemed to flicker into two lights."

"The light I was focused on seemed to split into two lights, one above the other, and slightly separated from each other" (Ley)

 

*NOTE

Tim Ley also does not think this is an alien craft. He thinks it is a message from God. Just saying.........

[ufoguy]

39 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

That's Tim Leys description.

He didn't realise he was actually describing individual lights in his description, but he did. 

As such, he did not describe a V shape craft, he claimed to see one, and then described individual plane lights. 

Leys statement.

We noticed that one of the lights on the far side arm seemed to flicker into two lights."

"The light I was focused on seemed to split into two lights, one above the other, and slightly separated from each other" (Ley)

 

*NOTE

Tim Ley also does not think this is an alien craft. He thinks it is a message from God. Just saying.........

 

Thats not what he says here.

He described a V shape craft guy

 

 

[psyche101]

Just now, ufoguy said:

 

Thats not what he says here.

He described a V shape craft guy

 

 

Have a look at his official statement.

That video does not make it go away.

He describes planes . That much is plainly obvious. 

Or are you still ignoring witnesses? 

[ufoguy]

5 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

Have a look at his official statement.

That video does not make it go away.

He describes planes . That much is plainly obvious. 

Or are you still ignoring witnesses? 

Im watching the witnesses describe a v shaped craft on video.......even tim leys...are u ok guy?

Im showing u what he is saying...ON VIDEO..out of his own mouth...

 

Do u have a video of him saying otherwise ?

[psyche101]

6 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

Im watching the witnesses describe a v shaped craft on video.......even tim leys...

You are referencing a UFO show. 

And you are avoiding that he without doubt described something different to what he claimed to see

6 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

are u ok guy?

I'm fine. I'm not overly find of BS artists though, why are you still refusing witnesses?

6 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

Im showing u what he is saying...ON VIDEO..out of his own mouth...

Do u have a video of him saying otherwise ?

Do you have any source that refutes his official claim? Can you read or do you only YouTube? 

What about the fact he didn't think it was alien, it was from God? 

So I definitely was not on the "Ufo bandwagon", although I knew people who were. I was politely reserved on the subject of Ufo's. I would still feel uncomfortable just saying "I believe in Ufo's". In my understanding of the meaning of the word "belief", I apply its meaning to God and to the fruit of God, which is life. I don't believe in any objects, even Ufo's. I reserve my belief for people and for God.

http://www.dudeman.net/siriusly/0/sup/ley.html

Your witness described planes and says he saw gods work. He does not support your unsupported UFO claim.

Phoenix was not a giant craft. Not from here or anywhere else. It is plainly obvious that the event consisted of planes and flares.

[the13bats]

I lost count how many times this threads topic has derailed and been hijacked,

Phoenix lights: i thought it was cool when i first heard about it, its a case like rozwell, kecksburg, shag harbor, Rendlesham etc where there is so much embellishments,  bs and true believer guilibility i doubt it will ever rest.

As you know i just do not place much if any weight on eye witness stories in cases like these, Phoenix was full of bandwagen BSers who were busted liying,

I also believe in this case there were 2 events, flares that dropped behind a range and aircraft in formation, plenty of evidence to back up those explanations

I also believe the USA has "V" or triangle shaped craft that are also seen and i wont rule out the unlikely and wild possibility one was involved in Phoenix what i do know is in no way has anything that happened in Phoenix been shown to be of alien involvement.

 

Moon effecting people, it simply does, too many people have seen it, i have seen it, no, i do not know how much is a result of people know its a full moon and let the idea effect them, but thats still the moon effecting people.

Science studying the moons effect on people isnt going to be very good because science cant control the moon in a lab setting the moon controls the research.

Scientists have to work with that, test subjects will be aware they are involved in a study that effects it too, you ask anyone in medical er, rescue, law enforcement does a full moon effect people they will say it sure does,

i saw one LEO chuckle and say to the effect he read "science" says it doesnt and they might be right, but come ride a full moon shift with him.

so experiments and research is going to remain theory not fact. and since i dont care which a person believes i need not belittle those who have a different opinion than myself.

 

[astrobeing]

59 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Science studying the moons effect on people isnt going to be very good because science cant control the moon in a lab setting the moon controls the research.

You don't need to control the Moon to study its effects. Its phases change predictably without any assistance. That makes it an ideal uncontrolled variable in a study.

[the13bats]

 

34 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

You don't need to control the Moon to study its effects. Its phases change predictably without any assistance. That makes it an ideal uncontrolled variable in a study.

You cannot rule out exteraneous variables unless you can recreate it, by itself, in a lab. simple correlation cannot show causality. You'd be laughed out of a scientific conference immediately.

[astrobeing]

23 minutes ago, the13bats said:

You cannot rule out exteraneous variables unless you can recreate it, by itself, in a lab. simple correlation cannot show causality. You'd be laughed out of a scientific conference immediately.

Hundreds of thousands of studies have been performed on human behavior outside of labs and have greatly advanced our understanding of human behavior. In fact this is an entire field of science called "sociology" and they hold regular conferences in which scientists share these kinds of studies. If a study has a large enough sample size then usually the extra uncontrolled variables only create noise and effectively cancel themselves out while the uncontrolled variable being studied will create a pattern if a pattern exists.

Sometimes this doesn't work. For example, a study did seem to show a relation between the full Moon and the number of hospital visits. Peer review discovered that during the period of study, the full Moon happened to be falling on weekends which generate more hospital visits than weekdays regardless of the phase of the Moon. When the study was repeated to compensate for this, no relation was shown.

[the13bats]

 

You're still failing to grasp the difference between what can and cannot be said about the research. Correlational studies can only show relationships. Any time you opt for in vivo correlation, you lose control and ability to refer to a causal factor. This loss of intrinsic validity is well known and as such things cannot be ruled out such as media's influence on human behavior surrounding said events. Correlations can only say a "relationship" exists. Never that a variable "caused" another to occur.

Edited October 27, 2020 by the13bats

[quillius]

11 hours ago, the13bats said:

 

 

Moon effecting people, it simply does, too many people have seen it, i have seen it, no, i do not know how much is a result of people know its a full moon and let the idea effect them, but thats still the moon effecting people.

Science studying the moons effect on people isnt going to be very good because science cant control the moon in a lab setting the moon controls the research.

Scientists have to work with that, test subjects will be aware they are involved in a study that effects it too, you ask anyone in medical er, rescue, law enforcement does a full moon effect people they will say it sure does,

i saw one LEO chuckle and say to the effect he read "science" says it doesnt and they might be right, but come ride a full moon shift with him.

so experiments and research is going to remain theory not fact. and since i dont care which a person believes i need not belittle those who have a different opinion than myself.

 

hang on, I missed this...are you suggesting the moon does have an affect on people?

The part 'result of people knowing its a full moon and let the idea affect them' doesn't count as the moon having the affect. That would be the 'idea' not the moon itself per se.

 

[+Desertrat56]

12 hours ago, astrobeing said:

Hundreds of thousands of studies have been performed on human behavior outside of labs and have greatly advanced our understanding of human behavior. In fact this is an entire field of science called "sociology" and they hold regular conferences in which scientists share these kinds of studies. If a study has a large enough sample size then usually the extra uncontrolled variables only create noise and effectively cancel themselves out while the uncontrolled variable being studied will create a pattern if a pattern exists.

Sometimes this doesn't work. For example, a study did seem to show a relation between the full Moon and the number of hospital visits. Peer review discovered that during the period of study, the full Moon happened to be falling on weekends which generate more hospital visits than weekdays regardless of the phase of the Moon. When the study was repeated to compensate for this, no relation was shown.

Spoken like a true science acolyte.  

[astrobeing]

13 hours ago, the13bats said:

 

You're still failing to grasp the difference between what can and cannot be said about the research. Correlational studies can only show relationships. Any time you opt for in vivo correlation, you lose control and ability to refer to a causal factor. This loss of intrinsic validity is well known and as such things cannot be ruled out such as media's influence on human behavior surrounding said events. Correlations can only say a "relationship" exists. Never that a variable "caused" another to occur.

That's correct and I never said that a variable "causes" another to occur. You did:

15 hours ago, the13bats said:

Moon effecting people, it simply does, too many people have seen it, i have seen it, no, i do not know how much is a result of people know its a full moon and let the idea effect them, but thats still the moon effecting people.

Correlational studies can certainly prove that there is no relationship between two variables which is what lunar effect studies have proved.

[quillius]

52 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

That's correct and I never said that a variable "causes" another to occur. You did:

Correlational studies can certainly prove that there is no relationship between two variables which is what lunar effect studies have proved.

reminds me of flat earthers for some reason