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Kelly Cahill UFO case continues to intrigue

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the13bats
9 hours ago, quillius said:

hang on, I missed this...are you suggesting the moon does have an affect on people?

The part 'result of people knowing its a full moon and let the idea affect them' doesn't count as the moon having the affect. That would be the 'idea' not the moon itself per se.

 

Yep, and the trigger,  the cause was the moon, its the "idea" of the moon that had an effect and caused the behaviour, doesnt matter if you "count" it as i do, opinions are like that,

Lots of ways to explain why LEO, medical staff, club owners etc see people act different during a full moon and saying its all in the observers mind is way to in the box thinking for me, some might be but not all, its a phenomenon even if science says its not, im good with that, then again i dont have a huge fragile ego to placate.

Edited by the13bats
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ChrLzs

'Snot about egos, it's about how to do *real* science.

And for *anything* that has cultural significance - like a full moon - you have to be really, really careful to avoid the very simple and obvious problems that apply:
- folks love scary stories
- when something happens that re-inforces that love.. they will conveniently forget about the other happenings that don't.

Like it or not, these issues skew anecdotal data and put people in a mindset to take extra notice of things that reinforce their preconceptions.  A slightly busy night on a full moon? - Well, obviously that's because the full moon has an unknown effect!!!!  They'll talk about it with their mates, and on forums like these and hey presto, it's a 'thing'.  (The 'thing' is just Confirmation Bias).

In this case, there is a little bit of science and even a hypothesis or two about issues that could possibly *truly* affect human (or animal) behavior, if only a little...  The full moon, natch, throws quite a lot of light, so the night is much brighter.  All the better for nefarious types, or just the odd vandal who needs to be able to see what they are graffiti-ing.. Also, people may suffer from disturbed sleep patterns due to the brightness of their bedrooms..  Those effects may help, very slightly, to explain an increase in crime or accidents.  If there is one...

In regard to gravitational pull..  No. That potential effect is miniscule beyond belief - "a mother holding her baby exerts 12 million times the tide-raising force on the child than the moon does, simply by virtue of being closer".  Also, that tiny extra pull only depends on the moon's position in the sky - it is NOT affected by the phase.  The whole moon is still there, even though light isn't shining on all of it!

So...

1. There are no significant effects directly caused by a full Moon, other than the tides and the extra light..

2. Not one scientific study (there are lots) has shown any statistically significant increase in accidents or crime during full moon.

Here's a meta study of many of those studies..  The full version should be available at your local library.

 

If anyone has one that shows the opposite, please cite it.   

 

Edited by ChrLzs
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ufoguy
23 hours ago, psyche101 said:

You are referencing a UFO show. 

And you are avoiding that he without doubt described something different to what he claimed to see

I'm fine. I'm not overly find of BS artists though, why are you still refusing witnesses?

Do you have any source that refutes his official claim? Can you read or do you only YouTube? 

What about the fact he didn't think it was alien, it was from God? 

So I definitely was not on the "Ufo bandwagon", although I knew people who were. I was politely reserved on the subject of Ufo's. I would still feel uncomfortable just saying "I believe in Ufo's". In my understanding of the meaning of the word "belief", I apply its meaning to God and to the fruit of God, which is life. I don't believe in any objects, even Ufo's. I reserve my belief for people and for God.

http://www.dudeman.net/siriusly/0/sup/ley.html

Your witness described planes and says he saw gods work. He does not support your unsupported UFO claim.

Phoenix was not a giant craft. Not from here or anywhere else. It is plainly obvious that the event consisted of planes and flares.

:lol:...Are u ok?......I checked your link and this is exactly what he says in the last paragraph....

"If you were to ask me what I think about it, I would say that it is an extraterrestrial craft." his words....:yes::tsu:

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psyche101
50 minutes ago, ufoguy said:

:lol:...Are u ok?......I checked your link and this is exactly what he says in the last paragraph....

"If you were to ask me what I think about it, I would say that it is an extraterrestrial craft." his words....:yes::tsu:

I'm ok you're obviously not.

Keep reading.

 

I had the overwhelming impression that it was of human origin. I know it's difficult to equate "extraterrestrial" and "human" but that's how I felt at the time and still do. And finally my perception was that whoever had such wondrous technology had to be "in cahoots with God". 

Human extraterrestrials in cahoots with God. Alrighty then!  :wacko:

Do you have more nutcases to push the fantasy version of events? 

If you think that's proof of extraterrestrial visitors, yours even crazier than Tim Ley, and that's saying a lot as anyone can see from his comments. 

So why are you ignoring the witnesses that said they identified planes and flares still? And why do you think a religious nutcase would be more reliable than those who offer a different report? You don't seem to be able to answer this question? I've asked several times now. 

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the13bats
2 hours ago, ChrLzs said:

'Snot about egos, it's about how to do *real* science.

And for *anything* that has cultural significance - like a full moon - you have to be really, really careful to avoid the very simple and obvious problems that apply:
- folks love scary stories
- when something happens that re-inforces that love.. they will conveniently forget about the other happenings that don't.

Like it or not, these issues skew anecdotal data and put people in a mindset to take extra notice of things that reinforce their preconceptions.  A slightly busy night on a full moon? - Well, obviously that's because the full moon has an unknown effect!!!!  They'll talk about it with their mates, and on forums like these and hey presto, it's a 'thing'.  (The 'thing' is just Confirmation Bias).

In this case, there is a little bit of science and even a hypothesis or two about issues that could possibly *truly* affect human (or animal) behavior, if only a little...  The full moon, natch, throws quite a lot of light, so the night is much brighter.  All the better for nefarious types, or just the odd vandal who needs to be able to see what they are graffiti-ing.. Also, people may suffer from disturbed sleep patterns due to the brightness of their bedrooms..  Those effects may help, very slightly, to explain an increase in crime or accidents.  If there is one...

In regard to gravitational pull..  No. That potential effect is miniscule beyond belief - "a mother holding her baby exerts 12 million times the tide-raising force on the child than the moon does, simply by virtue of being closer".  Also, that tiny extra pull only depends on the moon's position in the sky - it is NOT affected by the phase.  The whole moon is still there, even though light isn't shining on all of it!

So...

1. There are no significant effects directly caused by a full Moon, other than the tides and the extra light..

2. Not one scientific study (there are lots) has shown any statistically significant increase in accidents or crime during full moon.

Here's a meta study of many of those studies..  The full version should be available at your local library.

 

If anyone has one that shows the opposite, please cite it.   

 

My remarks about ego driven types was directed at those who would rather attack a person for their opinions rather than discuss it. Happens a lot on here.

And you know better than most here a lot of people spew "science" as their proof of their claims yet their science is wrong or flawed you have pointed that out countless times.

In my case my opinions they shouldnt have offended or caused furor that they did i was stating i have seen in 30 plus years of club music biz that we always saw wilder nights on full moons, it wasnt just in our minds as paperwork would reflect that,

Its not like im saying i saw a ghost , alien or bigfoot believe my story, im sharing my observations not asking for anything and i see where some science suggests its not the case that the moon has any effect people and i never said the moon can effect people like it effects tides.

since im not a dear true believer i fit my observations to the idea people know its a full moon and act up a bit more and in that the moon was their catalyst the moon did effect them. Seems a lot of issue is just how im wording it not my problem.

Not saying the moon has magical or unknown to science powers, but science didnt explain to me what i have seen, oh geez now i do sound like a true believer,

Thanks for taking the time on me i said my opinions im good,  you guys can go back to telling ufoguy how wrong he is about everything.

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quillius
11 hours ago, the13bats said:

Yep, and the trigger,  the cause was the moon, its the "idea" of the moon that had an effect and caused the behaviour, doesnt matter if you "count" it as i do, opinions are like that,

Lots of ways to explain why LEO, medical staff, club owners etc see people act different during a full moon and saying its all in the observers mind is way to in the box thinking for me, some might be but not all, its a phenomenon even if science says its not, im good with that, then again i dont have a huge fragile ego to placate.

I just cannot agree that the idea of something having an affect makes the object the cause. The 'idea' of something can have an affect but then this makes it the 'idea' not the object. 

Let me try this, if someone is scared of a house because they believe it is haunted by a ghost. The affect is 'being frightened' the cause is the 'idea' NOT the object ie the 'ghost'........So in this scenario using your methodology  you would class the 'ghost' as the cause.

Same with the moon, if its the idea of the moon then it cannot be the moon itself being the cause. If you think this then you must also agree its the ghost....right?

I dont think this is about opinions, I simply think that its either the object or the idea....if its the idea of an object then its still the idea that is the cause.

Edited by quillius
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stereologist
On 10/25/2020 at 9:30 AM, Desertrat56 said:

The thing is, science is not a person so science has not proven anything.  Humans use the scientific method to prove things.  And some scientists have proven that the moon does affect the tides.  So, what ever it is about a full moon that causes some people, not all, to be more emotional, careless or what ever it is that caused the old term lunatic to be used is not unreal, nor is it unscientific. 

Science proves nothing. Science can falsify an idea, but can only support an idea. There could be some data out there someplace that falsifies an idea, but it hasn't been found yet which is why science cannot prove, but can disprove.

The evidence is pretty clear that the Moon does not affect people. Sure it affects the tides which is what people mention, but that has no bearing on people. Tidal effects are detectable on objects that are large such as Lake Superior and larger. Remember that there is just as much Moon out there with a new Moon or a quarter Moon or a full Moon. Yet, people think of the full Moon as being different somehow. The evidence is clear that the Moon does not have an effect on us as claimed. It's just a misunderstanding which continues on in popular culture.

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stereologist
On 10/26/2020 at 3:50 AM, ufoguy said:

I cant understand how u can dismiss witnesses that are describing a large v shaped craft in detail....

bild3-32.jpg

 

 

Watch 7:30 - 18:30

 

So you posted a newspaper which uses a description from ONLY Tim Ley. That is one person's description and the photo is a fake photo made up for America's favorite comic book, USA Today.

Most witness described a triangle, while others a half circle, or boomerang.

That is from case #1. Still betting you don't know that.

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stereologist
On 10/26/2020 at 4:04 AM, ufoguy said:

No that was just the witnesses description of the craft....but the event was about a large v shape craft none the less.

Actually that is Tim Ley's description.

I don't recall anyone other than Ley used that description.

You keep saying witnesses. Can you find anyone other than Ley describing that shape?

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stereologist
On 10/26/2020 at 8:36 PM, the13bats said:

Moon effecting people, it simply does, too many people have seen it, i have seen it, no, i do not know how much is a result of people know its a full moon and let the idea effect them, but thats still the moon effecting people.

Science studying the moons effect on people isnt going to be very good because science cant control the moon in a lab setting the moon controls the research.

Scientists have to work with that, test subjects will be aware they are involved in a study that effects it too, you ask anyone in medical er, rescue, law enforcement does a full moon effect people they will say it sure does,

i saw one LEO chuckle and say to the effect he read "science" says it doesnt and they might be right, but come ride a full moon shift with him.

so experiments and research is going to remain theory not fact. and since i dont care which a person believes i need not belittle those who have a different opinion than myself.

 

The Moon does not affect people. That's an urban legend or a cultural meme at best.

Plenty of people make mistakes about what happens which is why studies are done. 

The Moon having an effect on people is like stories of basketball players having "hang time", i.e. defying gravity. It's like the idea of being thrown clear of an accident. Or its jinxes and charms that affect people. Or it is systems gamblers work out which have nothing to do with the odds of events.

It is likely that people make these mistakes through occasional correlation. Something happens and they remember it and the Moon being full or nearly full and they connect the dots because some old tale tells them to. But when science gets in their and checks over time they see that these are just mistaken ideas that people have. This is why science tests. People make mistakes all of the time and the idea that the Moon affects people is one of them and a rather common one.

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stereologist
16 hours ago, the13bats said:

Yep, and the trigger,  the cause was the moon, its the "idea" of the moon that had an effect and caused the behaviour, doesnt matter if you "count" it as i do, opinions are like that,

Lots of ways to explain why LEO, medical staff, club owners etc see people act different during a full moon and saying its all in the observers mind is way to in the box thinking for me, some might be but not all, its a phenomenon even if science says its not, im good with that, then again i dont have a huge fragile ego to placate.

Let's suppose it is as you say that the "idea" of the Moon is the cause and not the Moon itself. The data shows that is not the case.

There is no correlation between the phases of the Moon and the activities assigned to the Moon. The evidence shows that is not the case. What is the case is the notion in some people's minds that there is a connection. But the evidence shows that is just an idea which is incorrect.

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quillius
50 minutes ago, stereologist said:

Science proves nothing. Science can falsify an idea, but can only support an idea. There could be some data out there someplace that falsifies an idea, but it hasn't been found yet which is why science cannot prove, but can disprove.

The evidence is pretty clear that the Moon does not affect people. Sure it affects the tides which is what people mention, but that has no bearing on people. Tidal effects are detectable on objects that are large such as Lake Superior and larger. Remember that there is just as much Moon out there with a new Moon or a quarter Moon or a full Moon. Yet, people think of the full Moon as being different somehow. The evidence is clear that the Moon does not have an effect on us as claimed. It's just a misunderstanding which continues on in popular culture.

bolded....worth an extra thumbs up! :tu:

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stereologist
On 10/26/2020 at 5:53 AM, quillius said:

Hi UFOguy, this is a good starting point.......

after many hours of searching I haven't been able to come up with these reports, do you have access to anything that can confirm or show reports of the night in question.

please do not post articles or claims of 'thousands' or anything that lists reports that came through after that night.

There are certainly two events circa 8pm and 10pm.

The 10pm event we have footage of, these are explained as flares. The flares have small parachutes so once they open it then takes several minutes to reach the ground, from a distance the decent will look almost stationery to the naked eye.

 

Anyhow, if we can start with first hand accounts /reports of the night that would be helpful as I tried and failed.

I looked through the list of 200 or so reports you posted a few years back and it was pretty fascinating. I was impressed by how distance, time, location, etc. affected the reports and how witnesses reported different things to the lights such as different heights and number of lights and colors.  Wanted to thank you again for posting that list.

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quillius
12 minutes ago, stereologist said:

I looked through the list of 200 or so reports you posted a few years back and it was pretty fascinating. I was impressed by how distance, time, location, etc. affected the reports and how witnesses reported different things to the lights such as different heights and number of lights and colors.  Wanted to thank you again for posting that list.

no problem. I guess the biggest issue from memory was the timelines of a majority of those reports....when reports happen after a media frenzy, its hard to trust anything you read as we are all so fallible as humans with regards memory.....and that's without any outright lies that will also occur from the attention seekers.

(ps the list I posted did kinda kill the position I was taking at the time.....but facts are facts and truth is more important than winning a debate IMO)

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astrobeing
15 hours ago, the13bats said:

Not saying the moon has magical or unknown to science powers, but science didnt explain to me what i have seen, oh geez now i do sound like a true believer,

So you believe that science must explain everything you think you've seen because your observations and perceptions are never wrong?

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Desertrat56
17 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

So you believe that science must explain everything you think you've seen because your observations and perceptions are never wrong?

Do you see everything as black and white?  You never notice something that you can't explain?  What a dull life you must live.

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astrobeing
3 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

Do you see everything as black and white?

No, I see everything in sharp and precise colors.

3 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

You never notice something that you can't explain?

Yes, all the time! Do I believe that miracles or magic or supernatural forces are involved? Absolutely not. Only fools believe that.

3 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

What a dull life you must live.

Yes life was pretty exciting when the Earth was the center of the universe and stars were holes into Heaven and unicorns and fairies roamed the lands. Then science allowed me to see how the universe actually works, and life became much more exciting.

Edited by astrobeing
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the13bats

Okay, still going...Ufoguy, please step up your efforts your critics are getting bored with you.

 

Dont think im not flattered I see the vigor the effort to try and go to a finite step and prove bats is all wrong in what i consider from what i have observed, and seems a lot of furor is just my wording,  because i never said im right, its my opinion, i get it,  you think my opinion is wrong, i also get you care alot about it.

Quote

..So in this scenario using your methodology  you would class the 'ghost' as the cause

"Ghost" as in idea of.

Ill word my own scenarios to explain what i think thanks, if a person thinks a house is "haunted" haunted can be many things to different people, ( i dont believe in haunted )

so i could use use a general idea that the person is affraid of haunted houses or specific fears associated with alleged haunted houses IE ghosts,

In my club observations during full moons people acted a bit wilder, in some cases paperwork, reports resulted, moreso on full moons perhaps just very odd appearing coincidence.

i went along it wasnt backed up by science. i also left the door open that the people who did act up enough to be noticed also were aware it was a full moon and with that comes ages of thoughts and ideas ( even if wrong ) the moon effects people in turn it caused them perhaps not even fully awear of it to be a bit more extroverted,  so sure in that case i called the moon the cause, because the actions were during a full moon.

In the movie ghost and mr chicken don knotts character is a scaredy cat, he fears many things one might assocated with ideas spawned by alleged haunted houses, not specially "ghosts" and in turn his bumbling is caused by his ideas and resulting fears of haunted houses, doesnt mean houses are really haunted for the "idea" they are to effect him,  so i say haunted houses caused it and some meltdown over thst wording.

That's the same way i look at what i saw with the full moon, so pretty much youre in an abstract way preaching to the quire with your posts at me,
 

Quote

 

Let's suppose it is as you say that the "idea" of the Moon is the cause and not the Moon itself. The data shows that is not the case.

There is no correlation between the phases of the Moon and the activities assigned to the Moon. The evidence shows that is not the case. What is the case is the notion in some people's minds that there is a connection. But the evidence shows that is just an idea which is incorrect

 

There is simply no way to take every person who acted up in my clubs over a few decades and prove an "idea" even a wrong idea didnt effect their actions, in fact look how many people are affected by political ideas,  ideas you very well might call "wrong" still that idea is causing the person to react,

The best i can give you guys is to just write me off as being an idiot who believes an "idea" can and does effect some peoples behavior even if data says no it doesnt. Im comfortable with that.

I think ufoguy is feeling a bit left out can you please go tell him how wrong his is about everything he posts.

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ChrLzs
4 hours ago, astrobeing said:

So you believe that science must explain everything you think you've seen because your observations and perceptions are never wrong?

A good question... Science (and the scientists who attempt to contribute to it) is under no obligation - there's no 'must'...  That's not how it works.  Science is simply a body of knowledge.  Some of it is certain (axioms, etc), but mostly it is a gathering of the best and simplest theories / explanations of what we observe.  All of those theories are up for revision if any verifiable observation contradicts them, or even if a simpler one comes along.

If there is just an anecdote about a single observation, that usually can be neither verified or tested and thus has little to do with Science.

People make mistakes and misperceive.  It's only by corroboration and actual measurements and evidence that we can verify an anecdotal observation, such that it might need a theory...

Edited by ChrLzs
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astrobeing
1 minute ago, ChrLzs said:

Huh?  Science (and the scientists who attempt to contribute to it) is under under no obligation - there's no 'must'...  That's not how it works. 

Yes, thank you. That's exactly my point. Unfortunately 13bats ignored my question.

3 minutes ago, ChrLzs said:

Science is simply a body of knowledge.  Some of it is certain (axioms, etc), but mostly it is a gathering of the best and simplest theories / explanations of what we observe.  All of those theories are up for revision if any verifiable observation contradicts them, or even if a simpler one comes along.

Science is also a collection of techniques to most accurately describe and understand how the universe works. We had to create these techniques because we humans are terrible at understanding things. We desperately want our preconceived notions to be verified, we want everything to fit into what we already know, and we want everything to be very very simple to understand. Scientists have to agreed to use these methods of science no matter how painful the results may be to them. Regular people on the other hand can and do believe whatever makes them feel good about themselves.

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ufoguy
On 10/27/2020 at 8:43 PM, psyche101 said:

So why are you ignoring the witnesses that said they identified planes and flares still? And why do you think a religious nutcase would be more reliable than those who offer a different report? You don't seem to be able to answer this question? I've asked several times now. 

Your so call witnesses does NOT EXIST. There is NO Evidence of their existence. They're FAKE. Why Tim Ley is more of a reliable witness?...because he and 200+ residence of phoenix has first hand account of this event. He can describe the craft in detail. 200+ vs your FAKE witnesses?...No contest

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psyche101
Just now, ufoguy said:

Your so call witnesses does NOT EXIST. There is NO Evidence of their existence. They're FAKE. Why Tim Ley is more of a reliable witness?...because he and 200+ residence of phoenix has first hand account of this event. He can describe the craft in detail. 200+ vs your FAKE witnesses?...No contest

Tim Ley is a bonafide nutcase who outright said he thought that what he saw, which he described as individual lights was,

Humans in cahoots with God.

Not aliens. 

I gave you named, Rich Contry and Mitch Stanley for starters. They definitely exist.

If you have to lie for your belief, it's not a good belief system. 

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stereologist
11 hours ago, ufoguy said:

Your so call witnesses does NOT EXIST. There is NO Evidence of their existence. They're FAKE. Why Tim Ley is more of a reliable witness?...because he and 200+ residence of phoenix has first hand account of this event. He can describe the craft in detail. 200+ vs your FAKE witnesses?...No contest

Rubbish. Total rubbish. You are beyond clueless. Tim Ley's description is just one of many.

The problem here is that you are clueless about what happened. You don't even seem to know anything at all about what happened yet you dismiss the video evidence which shows Ley is wrong. You dismiss the telescope and binocular viewing that shows Ley is wrong.

Your claim that some witnesses do not exist is just you revealing how utterly and completely clueless you are about the Phoenix Lights. 

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Trelane

The Phoenix Lights, it always comes back to this doesn't it? This,or Roswell.

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psyche101
7 hours ago, stereologist said:

Rubbish. Total rubbish. You are beyond clueless. Tim Ley's description is just one of many.

The problem here is that you are clueless about what happened. You don't even seem to know anything at all about what happened yet you dismiss the video evidence which shows Ley is wrong. You dismiss the telescope and binocular viewing that shows Ley is wrong.

Your claim that some witnesses do not exist is just you revealing how utterly and completely clueless you are about the Phoenix Lights. 

Also, Tim Leys description indicates that he is not of stable mind.

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