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Azerbaijan and Armenia at war


Eldorado

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9 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Not doubting they do. Cause as a species we still bicker over anything. It's sad really, but yea you're right. I'm trying to think of a rewritten border which was solved peacefully.

Good intentions... Though, your neighbor sees some area  he could  put to the business. Ehh, he asks "Who are you" "Armen Dzhugashwili", "You are not Armenian!"  "Yeah, I'm Armen".

Where? What? WTF? Where is the punch?

 

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Both sides continue to fire artillery, rockets, and missiles at each other's population centers while also claiming their own side is only targeting military units and infrastructure.  

Seems Armenia is now really pushing for Russia to get involved militarily and so far Russia hasnt made any moves or said anything hinting to them getting involved.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan were once glued together as ASSRs of the Soviet Union until the communist regime collapsed in 1991, then they wanted to restore their original borders and the Armenians continue their battle against Turkic neighbors, the Ottoman Turks exterminated over a million Armenians in what is now Turkey during WW1. There was a large protest by the Armenian community in Hollywood, L.A. (a concentration of Armenians, the country's largest) yesterday to slowed and stopped traffic on the US 101 freeway, to bring more attention to the issue. The Republic of Artsakh (Nagarno-Karabakh) is one of like 10 unrecognized republics according to the UN definition of a republic.   

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16 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Both sides continue to fire artillery, rockets, and missiles at each other's population centers while also claiming their own side is only targeting military units and infrastructure.  

Seems Armenia is now really pushing for Russia to get involved militarily and so far Russia hasnt made any moves or said anything hinting to them getting involved.

Would the Russians get involved though? They've got good relations with the Azeri's if I;m not mistaken.

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4 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Would the Russians get involved though? They've got good relations with the Azeri's if I;m not mistaken.

They got better relations with Armenia then Azerbaijan, there are treaties with Armenia while Russia has only been selling weapons to Azerbaijan.

There is also the risk to CSTO which if Armenia calls in its collective defense and Russia does nothing will discredit Russia as a dependable ally.

Lastly there is the issue of Turky expanding its influence.  Historically Turkey and Russia have been competing and viewing each other as rivals for centuries.  Recently they have had temporary alignment of goals that brought cooperation but they are still largely opposing each other.  With Turkey backing Azerbaijan if the conflict ends with Azerbaijan winning outright or getting significant gains then Turkey's influence in the Caucasus region will increase significantly while Russian influence will take a significant hit.

None of that means Russia will get involved though.  The Russian military is large and on paper seems extremely powerful but in reality they arent as strong as they appear.  A large part of the Russian military is still made up of barely trained conscript troops and the troops armed with modern weaponry and equipment are still in the minority.  For example I remember reading how outside of elite units only like one in every eight Russian soldiers are given night vision goggles.  With Russia entangled still in Syria, Ukraine, and now Belarus.  Technically Russian troops are just on the border of Belarus.  Point is Russia is starting to extend its trained and equipped soldiers a bit thin and if Turkey decided to get militarily involved it might end in a bigger humiliation then if Russia did nothing.

Russia will be looking at this very closely to determine if involvement is worth the risk.

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America, France, and Russia have released a joint statement calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire while condemning attacks on civilians from both sides.

Meanwhile earlier today the Armenian press secretary to the president made a threat to erase the city of Ganja from the map if fighting did not stop.  The exact wording was "A few more days and I'm afraid that archaeologists won't even find Ganja. Come to your senses before it is too late".  Most have taken that statement to be a threat as Ganja has been hit but not heavily yet.  Should mention Ganja has a population a bit over 330,000.

Meanwhile in northern Iran the Azerbaijani population living there is threatening the Iranian government saying if the government doesnt close the border with Armenia they will force it closed.

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Both sides are now saying they are willing to negotiate a ceasefire but both sides continue to attack each other with artillery, rockets, and missiles.

There are rumors that Azerbaijan are preparing for a large offensive to break the defenses and take over large sections of the break away region.  Also Azerbaijan has restarted artillery strikes on the break away regions capital.

Armenia has now seemed to start firing tactical ballistic missiles at Azerbaijan along with continuing to shell Ganja.  No reports yet of what the tactical missiles hit or if they were just a training exercise but being a training exercise seems unlikely.

Video of the tactical missile launch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1313548794320039936

Video of Ganja being shelled

https://mobile.twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1313459968104857607

More evidence of Iran moving military equipment to its northern border with Armenia is coming out.

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Armenia may make concessions over Karabakh if Azerbaijan is ready to do the same

Reuters report quoting TASS: Link

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On 9/28/2020 at 8:49 PM, TrumanB said:

The real trouble here is Turkey. They are supporting Azerbaijan. Erdogan is a threat to peace, I hope that Russia can handle him.

actually israel supplies Azerbaijan with weapons,  i would not expect russia to get involved directly, 1 they never do when it comes to israel.  2 russia supplies armenia with weapons, the more they fight the more russia sells weapons. 

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7 hours ago, Eldorado said:

Armenia may make concessions over Karabakh if Azerbaijan is ready to do the same

Reuters report quoting TASS: Link

it should have been done 30 years ago,  NK is an enclave created by ussr.  

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The war continues along with questionable reports from both sides.

Seems Azerbaijan has made some progress and captured an abandoned city but that seems to be the only solid information so far.

For the more questionable claims from both sides.

Azerbaijan claims to of seized an Armenian military column and captured 27 Armenian tanks.

Video of the supposedly seized column

https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2020/7-october-azerbaijani-forces-seized-armenian-military-column

Video of the supposedly seized 27 tanks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/notvladedivac/status/1313894772541583360

Problem is both Armenia and Azerbaijan use the same Russian military equipment so its difficult to tell if these videos are actually what they claim to be or not.  It's not that hard to stick an Armenian flag on something and claim it was captured for propaganda purposes.

As for Armenia they claimed to of encircled and destroyed 3 Azerbaijan brigades on the southern front, claiming between 260 to 280 captured/killed and 60 to 80 wounded.  Only problem is Armenia has once again provided no proof beyond official Armenian government statements.  There is video of what appears to be a captured Azerbaijani soldier with Armenian troops but that isnt really proof of three brigades being encircled and destroyed.

Video of captured soldier

https://mobile.twitter.com/301_AD/status/1313797157594554368

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Ancient grudge breaks to new mutiny. This is a classic "frozen conflict" such as that in Moldavia and East Ukraine the Russians foster. They flare hot, occasionally. Azerbaijan and Turkey will have more than the Russians and Armenians to deal with if it grows hotter. The Armenian Orthodox, or Apostolic Church, has many friends around the region.

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Satellite Images Confirm Turkish F-16 Fighters Secretly Deployed To Azerbaijan

Christiaan Triebert, of The New York Times' Visual Investigations team was among the first to spot the jets in this imagery, providing initial analysis in a thread on Twitter.

Full article at The Drive mag: Link

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10 minutes ago, Eldorado said:

Satellite Images Confirm Turkish F-16 Fighters Secretly Deployed To Azerbaijan

Christiaan Triebert, of The New York Times' Visual Investigations team was among the first to spot the jets in this imagery, providing initial analysis in a thread on Twitter.

Full article at The Drive mag: Link

Problem is that it was never a secret.  After a military exercise that Turkey and Azerbaijan had in July Turkey left a few F-16s in Azerbaijan claiming it was to deter Armenia from attacking Azerbaijan after Armenia killed an Azerbaijani general.

The question is if those F-16s have been used in combat, Armenia says they have been but have provided no evidence yet and Azerbaijan says no F-16s have been used.  Azerbaijan does not use the F-16 so has no pilots trained with flying the F-16 so if they were used it would be by Turkish pilots.

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Armenia, Azerbaijan ‘agree’ to Nagorno-Karabakh talks

Russia says both countries willing to join talks in Moscow, which would mark first big step to ending current clashes.

Al Jazeera: Link

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More information about the ceasefire, it is apparently only for 72 hours and is largely to collect wounded and dead soldiers from the various battlefields safely and potentially do prisoner swaps.

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Armenia & Azerbaijan report ‘intense’ shelling & drone strikes shortly before Nagorno-Karabakh truce enters into force

RT News: Link

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Seems the ceasefire did not last very long.  The ceasefire was supposed to begin apparently at noon, October 10 local time which was almost 9 hours ago.  As of about 40 minutes ago the Azerbaijan MoD is saying Armenia is attacking the Aghdam region.  Seems within 2 or 3 hours of the ceasefire coming into effect both sides have accused the other of breaking it.

So far neither side is saying the ceasefire is over but if reports of it being violated already is not a good sign.  Also interestingly Turkey was not involved with the ceasefire negotiations.

Edited by DarkHunter
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2 hours ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

Anyone see the video of a scud missile being launched by Aremenia

Video is in post 34 and it was a Tochka not a Scud, the two look nearly identical but the Tochka is smaller in dimension, has a smaller warhead, lesser range, but better accuracy than scud a, scud b, and scud c.  Scud d has slightly better accuracy though.

Unless you mean from today, havent seen a video yet but the remains of a Armenian launched ballistic missile have seemingly been found in a field near a town in Azerbaijan.  Seems the missile was a Tochka too and not a scud but I'm not completely sure.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HikmetHajiyev/status/1314935851902697474

Since I'm lazy just putting everything in one post.  Azerbaijan is now attacking the break away capital rather heavily again with artillery and bombs.  Seems safe to say the ceasefire is essentially over less then 24 hours after it went into effect.  

The real interesting thing though is the videos Azerbaijan has been releasing of using Israel made suicide drones to destroy Armenian S-300s.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1314955743460810753

https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1314857163370700801

First link is video of Azerbaijan targeting S-300s second is a still pic of an attack on an S-300 launcher.

Seems the Russian S-300 is no where near as impenetrable as Russia likes to make out as a mix of jamming and low flying drones seems to be a relatively cheap and effective counter.  

Hearing that most if not all of the anti-air assets in the break away region have been destroyed and Azerbaijan has complete and total control of the skies now.

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The fighting still seems to be going on.  Recently Armenia seems to have done some ballistic missile attacks on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja.  The recent attacks on Ganja do not seem to be aimed towards military targets or infrastructure but instead the civilian population itself.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1317325213261058049

https://mobile.twitter.com/Obs_IL/status/1317347899202805760

https://mobile.twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1317239618979454976

Those are just various links to the aftermath of the attacks on Ganja.

Azerbaijan isnt exactly innocent themselves, recently a video has made it online showing Azerbaijani soldiers executing two Armenian prisoners of war.  Azerbaijan also continues to regularly target the capital city of the break away region with artillery and drone strikes.

By this point both sides have done numerous war crimes against each other and neither side seems any closer to wanting to end the conflict.  It does seem at this point that this is no longer about trying to regain territory or defending a people's right to sovereign rule but instead just both sides straight up wanting to exterminate the opposing side.

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The BBC has been covering the bloodshed over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh from both sides - in Azerbaijan and in Armenia.

BBC International Correspondent Orla Guerin, producer Zeynep Erdim and cameraman Goktay Koraltan have spent a week looking at the conflict from the Azerbaijani side.

Video report at the BBC: Link

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