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Eldorado

Azerbaijan and Armenia at war

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DarkHunter

More videos of Azerbaijan destroying various Armenian military equipment including S-300, tanks, and MLRSs.  Seems Azerbaijan is doing a large offensive and if the rumors are true has made extensive gains on the southern front.

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DarkHunter

Seems the southern front of the break away region has collapsed completely with Azerbaijan making extensive territorial gains.  Azerbaijan has said they destroyed 3 main points of the Armenian army near the breakaway regions capital.  Meanwhile Armenia is threatening that if there is a repeat of the southern front they will destroy all Azerbaijani military positions.  Lastly seems Armenia fired three more ballistic missiles at an Azerbaijani city, this time seems like all three were armed with cluster munitions, multiple civilian casualties reported including children.

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DarkHunter

The Azerbaijani army is close to two major objectives.  Seems from reports that Azerbaijan is about 10 km away from Lachin and anywhere from 5 km to 25 km away from Shusha.  

Both are significant for different reasons.  For Lachin, it is the main corridor that Armenia uses to supply the break away region with men, weapons, and equipment.  Losing Lachin and having that corridor closed would essentially stop Armenia from resupplying the break away region completely.  As for Shusha it has moral and strategic importance.  From the moral perspective Shusha is viewed as the cultural capital of Azerbaijan and the birthplace of the Azerbaijani identity.  Losing it in the 90s was considered a massive embarrassment by Azerbaijan and reclaiming it would result in a massive moral boost among the entirety of Azerbaijan.  In terms of strategic importance Shusha is on the high ground and controlling Shusha would allow Azerbaijan to control a significant part of the breakaway region along with opening the route to the capital of the breakaway region only about 10 km or so away.

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Eldorado

Armenia asks Moscow for help amid Nagorno-Karabakh fighting

AP news: Link

Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to strike another ceasefire in talks brokered by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), as Baku pledged to “fight to the end” to recapture territory which has been controlled by Armenia-backed separatists since 1994. Meanwhile, Yerevan formally opened consultations with Moscow over when Russia would come to the backing of its defense pact partner.

Moscow Times: Link

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Eldorado

The humanitarian fallout

The conflict is currently on a disastrous trajectory: The previous war was fought over several years and claimed more than 30,000 lives, but nearly 150 civilians and at least 1,200 soldiers have been killed in the last six weeks alone.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the distraction of the US elections, relief efforts have so far been largely homegrown, even though the scale of the displacement, the destruction, and soaring coronavirus cases pose urgent and longer-term challenges for both countries.

According to Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, more than 90,000 people from Nagorno-Karabakh (60 percent of the population) have been displaced since the outset of the war.

Full article at the New Humanitarian: Link

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DarkHunter

Seems Azerbaijan may have taken Lachin and Shusha but that has yet to be confirmed.  At minimum there is heavy fighting occuring at those places.  

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DarkHunter

Seems Azerbaijan has taken over Shusha.  The capital of the breakaway region is being attacked by artillery frequently while the civilians there have started to flee the city.  It's not clear if Lachin has been taken or if fighting is still going on but the main supply route from Armenia has been severed by Azerbaijan.  

Seems the capital will be taken probably within a week or two and the material losses that Armenia has suffered will make it hard if not impossible to retake the territory lost.  As it stands currently Azerbaijan is in a much stronger position to negotiate a peace but since they do have a large military advantage and their distrust of a political solution due to nothing coming from the 90's ceasefire it's unlikely they will be entering negotiations anytime soon.

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DarkHunter

Russian helicopter has been shot down near an Armenian village by a SAM.  Still not clear who shot it down as Azerbaijan and Armenia are blaming each other.  This incident did not occur in the breakaway region or near the front but instead occured close to the Azerbaijani enclave in western Armenia.

Edited by DarkHunter
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DarkHunter

Azerbaijan admitted to shooting down the Russian helicopter on accident with a MANPAD.  Azerbaijan has apologized to Russia and said how the Azerbaijani unit believed it was an Armenian helicopter about to enter Azerbaijani territory and how the action was not directed against Russia.  Azerbaijan has also agreed to pay all compensation for the accident.

More importantly Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement with Russia.  Starting November 10 Russian peace keepers will enter the breakaway region and stay there.  So far the peace seems to be accepted by Azerbaijani population but the Armenian people have started protesting and stormed the parliament building.  Seems some protesters have beaten the speaker of the Armenian parliament.  Chants of "Nikol betrayed us",  are common in the protests.  The opposition party in Armenia is calling for the resignation of the leader of Armenia.

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Eldorado

Thousands of people protested in Armenia’s capital on Wednesday, demanding the prime minister’s resignation after he signed an agreement with Azerbaijan to halt weeks of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh that calls for territorial concessions in favor of Azerbaijan.

AP News report

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DarkHunter

Armenians in land surrendered to Azerbaijan are starting to leave and some number of them are burning down their homes as they do so.  Meanwhile the land Armenia was allowed to hold onto in the break away region has had Russian peacekeepers enter the territory while Azerbaijan reinforces Shusha with more troops.  

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Eldorado

Turkish parliament approves troop deployment to Nagorno-Karabakh

President Erdogan says the military force will ‘benefit the peace and prosperity of the regional people’.

Full report at Al Jazeera: Link

Vladimir Putin has said it would be “suicidal” for the Armenian government to back out of a Russian-brokered ceasefire in the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, as opposition forces in Yerevan protest against the week-old truce and call for the resignation of the prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan.

Full report at the UK Guardian: Link

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Eldorado

Displaced Armenians dig up graves of loved ones as they flee Nagorno-Karabakh

Full story at Sky News: Link

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DarkHunter

With hostilities seemingly ended the results of the conflict are interesting.  These are unofficial estimates and they mainly focus on material losses instead of people killed but it is interesting.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html?m=1

Apparantly this person/group monitored all media footage from the war and kept track of equipment losses based on released footage.  This stuff is not definitive but gives an idea where each nation stands after the conflict.

For Armenian losses

  • 115 tanks destroyed, 5 damaged, 65 captured
  • 24 armored fighting vehicles destroyed, 22 captured
  • 23 IFVs destroyed, 22 captured
  • 1 self propelled missile anti-tank destroyed, 2 captured
  • 111 towed artillery destroyed, 9 damaged, 27 captured
  • 16 self propelled artillery destroyed, 1 damaged, 2 captured
  • 72 MLRS destroyed, 1 abandoned
  • 1 ballistic missile launcher destroyed
  • 4 mortars destroyed, 15 captured
  • 26 SAM systems destroyed
  • 12 radar systems destroyed
  • 2 jammer systems destroyed
  • 2 aircraft destroyed

Before the war Armenia had around 210 tanks, around 414 armored fighting vehicles and IFVs (too lazy to break them up into the proper category), over 131 towed artillery, 38 self propelled artillery, over 86 MLRS, and 19 to 24 ballistic missile launchers.  Not going into anti-air cause I'm lazy and Armenia is weird with anti-air assets as it seems atleast half is being kept solely for training and parade purposes.

For Azerbaijani losses

  • 19 tanks destroyed, 8 damaged, 1 abandoned, 3 captured
  • 1 armored fighting vehicles damaged, 4 abandoned, 8 captured
  • 16 IFVs destroyed, 2 damaged, 4 abandoned, 9 captured
  • 1 MLRS destroyed
  • 1 mortar captured
  • 12 aircraft destroyed (1 was a helicopter that was shot down, 11 were An-2 which are propeller driven biplanes which were being flown by remote control as decoys to have Armenian anti-air systems engage them and reveal their position)

Given the relatively low confirmed losses for Azerbaijan I'm not going into prewar numbers for Azerbaijan.

Ultimately it seems Armenia suffered massive material losses, losing approximately half their tanks and most of their artillery.

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Eldorado

A land mine reportedly killed an Azerbaijani officer and wounded several ethnic Armenian officials and a Russian peacekeeper in Nagorno-Karabakh on November 23, in the latest reminder of lingering obstacles to identifying the dead two weeks after a cease-fire between archfoes Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Full story at RFERL: Link

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