Professor Lichtman predicts

[Helen of Annoy]

Second debate officially cancelled, Trump wants to give speech from WH balcony instead. 

 It's so morbidly funny. 

But, no joke, that appearance will actually seal the outcome of the elections.

And the rest of the world will have statistical data on the exact percentage of Trump cult members in the US. 2016 was the group IQ test for the US (which didn't confirm the stereotype the rest of the world has about America, since Trump lost the popular vote), 2020 is the group psychiatric evaluation. 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Helen of Annoy
And I still bet Trump will be in ICU by the actual election time.

[RAyMO]

25 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Second debate officially cancelled, Trump wants to give speech from WH balcony instead. 

 It's so morbidly funny. 

But, no joke, that appearance will actually seal the outcome of the elections.

And the rest of the world will have statistical data on the exact percentage of Trump cult members in the US. 2016 was the group IQ test for the US (which didn't confirm the stereotype the rest of the world has about America, since Trump lost the popular vote), 2020 is the group psychiatric evaluation. 

so much for the Republicans big hope - just wait till we get trump and Biden debating - trump will win so very bigly that the USA voters will flock to him,

In reality first debate a big loss for Trump 

Second Debate Trump runs because he would not be allowed to scream during Bidens time

If Biden had sense he would cancel the third debate - "Well trump pulled the second debate - why should we give him the oxygen of the third" - or some such  argument. 

Biden is the clear leader at the moment - has nothing to gain by debating. The only way for Trump to win, as it stands, is a fraudulent election. 

Edited October 10, 2020 by RAyMO

[TrumanB]

Why would any scientist want to pilfer one infected bat and sell it at the market? Are they that poor? Or he/she  is a psychopat who wanted the whole world to suffer?

[Hankenhunter]

7 hours ago, aztek said:

yea he developed the formula, blah blah,,,,,,  yet trump breaks all rules and patterns.  like i said will see nov3rd. 

here is my prediction, trump wins electoral college votes, but loses popular votes,  left wil try delegitimize the result, forcefully remove him, claiming they are preventing a coup,  civil unrest grows throughout the country.  

No, that's a fantasy you concocted to see you through the wee hours. Nice of you to admit that Trump breaks all the rules, though. Having a corrupt administration, certainly makes it a lot easier for him to do it, don't you think? And for the record, people who break all rules, and patterns, are generally locked up.

[Helen of Annoy]

13 minutes ago, seanjo said:

He never said that..."So, I’m going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful."

From your own quote it's extremely obvious Trump did say he thinks disinfectant should be injected into human body to "check out" if that would help against the disease. It would. Once you're dead you're not sick anymore. 

He's old, wasted and apparently never was particularly sane or intelligent. But what is wrong with people who willingly act like they can't notice tremendous stupidity behind the ideas of injecting disinfectants? Or frying lungs with UV light. 

It's a cult and it's a cult that glorifies stupidity.  

[+DieChecker]

18 hours ago, TrumanB said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

His analysis give Biden as winner on forthcoming elections.

What do you think?

The one thing I would disagree with is the major foreign win/loss. Trump recently got a lot of credit for peace between Israel and several Muslim nations. Something that has not done in decades. Also peace in Bosnia. 

Flipping that one "Key" gives Trump the win, rather then a loss.

[+DieChecker]

11 hours ago, and then said:

That was a QUESTION... not a statement.  Just ONCE I wish you people would be held to the same insane standards you hold for him and the rest of us.  Until then feck off.  Sell your crazy hate somewhere else.

I'd agree. He is asking a question out of complete ignorance, not giving advice. The Left's desire to damn the president is actually very disturbing in how far out of context they'll grope.

[aztek]

3 hours ago, TrumanB said:

Why would any scientist want to pilfer one infected bat and sell it at the market? Are they that poor? Or he/she  is a psychopat who wanted the whole world to suffer?

were you born yesterday?? the world full of such  psychopaths,  vast majority of them are not in a position to do harm to masses, only to few people,  child abusers, animal abusers,  then we got serial killers,  not too long ago we had nazis who burned people alive, nazi doctors who tortured thousands, experimenting on them,  there are people who enjoy inflicting pain on others,  dude seriously the more you post the more you prove how disconnected from reality you are, you live in your own safe bubble, and ignore the rest of the world, 

[Helen of Annoy]

46 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

The one thing I would disagree with is the major foreign win/loss. Trump recently got a lot of credit for peace between Israel and several Muslim nations. Something that has not done in decades. Also peace in Bosnia. 

Flipping that one "Key" gives Trump the win, rather then a loss.

Bosnia? 

Fortunately, Trump hasn't attempted to screw up Bosnia too. It was Kosovo. Different country. He posed as if he made some progress there, which is false. Real negotiations are held in Bruxelles. The most visible consequences of his photo op with Albanian and Serbian presidents were general dissatisfaction on both sides, which heightened tensions. Didn't last for long, fortunately.    

Also, he gets credit for claiming he made peace between nations that were not at war only by his sect. The rest of the world ridicules his propaganda attempts. 

And you forgot to mention he was nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by a bizarre-right winger. Of course, he wasn't awarded the Nobel. Just like he wasn't awarded the Nobel for imagining he has achieved anything with North Korea. 

 

In short, if the US media had any standards, or there were laws preventing media from spreading disinformation, you wouldn't be mislead into belief Trump is credited by anyone sane with anything sane. He's stumbling around praising himself and no, no one sane has forgotten yet, blathering against NATO. 

The only key that can save him is preventing Americans from voting and/or destroying the votes from any area that is not Trumpistan. And clinging to power by force if election fraud fails. Provided he doesn't keel over in the meantime.   

[SHaYap]

5 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Trumpistan

~

[+DieChecker]

16 hours ago, the13bats said:

And then covid and trumps grossly incompatant covid response cost lives, if he cant keep the WH and himself safe how can he keep america safe?

and the economy is a disaster, crime, riots, looting,  on trumps watch, he is great....at failing

As bad as Trumps response to Covid19 was, the Democrat governors, and Dem Congresspersons, did even worse. New York especially had four times the number of people dying then in other states.

Crime, riots, looting... seriously blaming that on Trump? When he offers, not once, but dozens of times, to give aid to various Cities and States, and his offers are thrown back in his face. Again, a fail sponsored directly by way of Democrat political posturing. 

[Katniss]

1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

The one thing I would disagree with is the major foreign win/loss. Trump recently got a lot of credit for peace between Israel and several Muslim nations. Something that has not done in decades. Also peace in Bosnia. 

Flipping that one "Key" gives Trump the win, rather then a loss.

It seems like Lichtman said in previous interviews that Trump had 7 against him and that you only needed six to lose the election according to his analysis. I'll go back and check those interviews out.

Edited October 10, 2020 by Katniss

[+DieChecker]

14 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Bosnia? Fortunately, Trump hasn't attempted to screw up Bosnia too. It was Kosovo. Different country.

Please forgive me. You're correct.

Quote

He posed as if he made some progress there, which is false. Real negotiations are held in Bruxelles. The most visible consequences of his photo op with Albanian and Serbian presidents were general dissatisfaction on both sides, which heightened tensions. Didn't last for long, fortunately.    

Also, he gets credit for claiming he made peace between nations that were not at war only by his sect. The rest of the world ridicules his propaganda attempts. 

And you forgot to mention he was nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by a bizarre-right winger. Of course, he wasn't awarded the Nobel. Just like he wasn't awarded the Nobel for imagining he has achieved anything with North Korea. 

In short, if the US media had any standards, or there were laws preventing media from spreading disinformation, you wouldn't be mislead into belief Trump is credited by anyone sane with anything sane. He's stumbling around praising himself and no, no one sane has forgotten yet, blathering against NATO. 

The only key that can save him is preventing Americans from voting and/or destroying the votes from any area that is not Trumpistan. And clinging to power by force if election fraud fails. Provided he doesn't keel over in the meantime.   

Yes, we all know you hate Trump.

As for Nobel, there's always next year, or perhaps 4 more years. 

[+DieChecker]

3 minutes ago, Katniss said:

It seems like Lichtman said in previous interviews that Trump had 7 against him and that you only needed six to lose the election according to his analysis. I'll go back and check those interviews out.

That could be. In which case, yeah, he's screwed... At least as far as this prediction system anyway. 

[diddyman68]

15 hours ago, TrumanB said:

His previous predictions were all correct. What else do you want as proof that he knows what's he talking about?

Well paul the octopus got 12/14 predictions right.

Thats a pretty good record.he must really know his stuff.

[Katniss]

52 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

That could be. In which case, yeah, he's screwed... At least as far as this prediction system anyway. 

I found one interview and unfortunately it's a CNN interview (sorry about that ), but starting at 5:01 Lichtman does say Trump has 7 keys against him and that it takes 6 to lose. So I guess will see, but there are a lot of angry seniors out there that are not happy with Trump and some of those angry seniors were a larger part of his base.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Katniss

[Helen of Annoy]

56 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Please forgive me. You're correct.

Nothing to forgive, honest mistakes happen. 

 

56 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Yes, we all know you hate Trump.

As for Nobel, there's always next year, or perhaps 4 more years. 

I don't hate him. I pity him. 

But I also really think he's the worst disaster that has ever struck the US. It's my non-political opinion. (In my political opinion, it's even worse than that, but my political opinion is not important in a thread about US matters.)

You probably noticed there's quite a consensus about that, anywhere in the world. The only people who find him acceptable are bizarre-right wingers (not the sane conservatives) and there are those who find him useful, adversaries, who appreciate his efforts to divide and weaken the US. 

As an average outsider, I'd say you need a sane president, urgently, who will start fixing the damage Trump has done to you as a nation, both at home and in the world. 

[aztek]

19 minutes ago, Katniss said:

I found one interview and unfortunately it's a CNN interview (sorry about that ), but starting at 5:01 Lichtman does say Trump has 7 keys against him and that it takes 6 to lose. So I guess will see, but there are a lot of angry seniors out there that are not happy with Trump and some of those angry seniors were a larger part of his base.

 

 

he may lost few angry seniors but he gained more  young black and hispanic voters. in any case none of them really  matter, EC matters

[Helen of Annoy]

42 minutes ago, aztek said:

he may lost few angry seniors but he gained more  young black and hispanic voters. in any case none of them really  matter, EC matters

Aha. That's why Trump released that godawful, used car salesman type of convincing, complete with hand accordion, video "to seniors, my favourite people... I'm a senior, I know you don't know that..."

He thinks people don't know he's a senior. He really thinks he seems young. I mean... 25th. Not the birthday, the amendment.  

 

Saying that Trump is gaining black and Hispanic votes is beyond lying. It's a verbal fart. Don't fart in public.  

[TrumanB]

What damage did Trump make to the world? It can't be compared to destruction that George W. Bush brought. And not to forget professor Obama whose attack on Libya caused millions of migrants try to flee to Europe. What a humanitarian distaster that action created. Trump also pushed some peace agreements, as DieChecker already mentioned.

Edited October 10, 2020 by TrumanB

[RAyMO]

2 hours ago, aztek said:

he may lost few angry seniors but he gained more  young black and hispanic voters. in any case none of them really  matter, EC matters

unless your electoral college is going to start ignoring voters - then they matter. 

Edited October 10, 2020 by RAyMO

[Helen of Annoy]

12 minutes ago, seanjo said:

Can you read? "something like that" that's not saying inject disinfectant, that's saying is there something that does the same job as a disinfectant but can be used on humans...I know TDS is a hard disease to get over, but please use your head.

You can attempt to attack me personally all you want, but the fact remains Trump can't understand things as simple as do not inject disinfectants into human bodies. Do not irradiate lungs with UV light. Do not stand on the balcony while you've got a disease that's killing seniors, especially obese ones, no matter how high on steroids you are. 

 

 

[toast]

16 hours ago, the13bats said:

You really are lost, trump potus appointed vp pence to head some covid task force, their response was such an epic fail, they couldnt even keep trump and many at his rose garden shindig cronnies from catching it,

"Lets-pray-Pence" is the worse possible person for such jobs. He has already proven his incompetence, on the shoulders of others.

Quote

It’s true that Pence faced an HIV outbreak while he was the governor, and that he eventually allowed a needle exchange. But his revisionist history misrepresents his role in what transpired in the small town of Austin, Indiana five years ago, where over 200 people were infected with HIV. What happened is that Pence failed to act in response to increasingly urgent signs of a significant HIV outbreak, and he delayed implementation of vital public health measures. Among public health experts, the Indiana outbreak is considered a failure of state response, and an example of how poor political leadership can actually make a crisis worse.

politico

Extract from Dynamics of the HIV Outbreak and Response in Scott County, Indiana, 2011-2015: A Modeling Study:

Quote

Dynamics of the HIV Outbreak and Response in Scott County, Indiana, 2011-2015: A Modeling Study

(...)

Findings:

The upper bound for undiagnosed HIV infections in Scott County peaked around January 10, 2015 at 126 undiagnosed cases, over two months before Governor Pence declared a public health emergency on March 26, 2015. Applying the observed case-finding rate scale-up to earlier intervention times suggests that an earlier public health response could have substantially reduced the total number of HIV infections. Initiation of a response in January 2013 would have suppressed the total number of infections to fewer than 56, representing at least 127 infections averted, while an intervention in April 2011 could have reduced the number of infections to fewer than ten, representing at least 173 infections averted.

US National Library of Medicine/National Institutes of Health

 

[the13bats]

21 minutes ago, toast said:

"Lets-pray-Pence" is the worse possible person for such jobs. He has already proven his incompetence, on the shoulders of others.

The real unexplained mystery is that even after trumps admins epic fail and deaths his worshippers think he while coughing and wheezing from covid can keep them safe

[the13bats]

6 hours ago, Katniss said:

there are a lot of angry seniors out there that are not happy with Trump and some of those angry seniors were a larger part of his base.

I dont ( sadly, lol ) live too far from the villages, i piece of trivia, a lot of them are senior swingers, what they dangle off their rearview mirror is the code, iifc they have their own std center you can if morbid curious google it.

But yeah, those villages folks are not stupid, they see trump bluster how hes done a great job with covid but then he cant keep himself of the WH safe and it was a direct result of his imcompatance, the villagers see that and say wth? If you cant keep yourself and wife safe how can you keep me safe, so they are done with him, like one lady said she gave don a chance but all he has are excuses.

I also saw some ladies in the villages tired of trumps cavalier remarks like grab um by and his affairs with sex trade workers, these ladies see that as disrespectful to women and unbefitting behavior for a potus, so he lost more voters there.

Just like you kit, many folks gave trump a chance 2016 and he failed, so they just dont want 4 more from a game show host.

 

 

3 hours ago, seanjo said:

.I know TDS is a hard disease to get over,

TRUMPS DERANGMENT SYNDROME has only gotten worse. his covid treatment seems to have kicked in high gear looney for him.