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TrumanB

Professor Lichtman predicts

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Raptor Witness
On 10/9/2020 at 2:54 PM, TrumanB said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

His analysis give Biden as winner on forthcoming elections.

What do you think?

From the OP Link:

The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached.”

____________
Forecasting that President Trump would win the last election, was a 50-50 chance. Big deal .... The impeachment I find more impressive.

Forecasting that Trump would “destroy Christians,” as outlined clearly in my previous signature here, below, is a whole other thing, entirely. That’s a long shot, because how could anyone imagine this would even be possible in late 2016 or early 2017?

Add to this, the additional forecast that “Trump would be destroyed, but not by human hands,” is also, much greater than 50-50. It would, in fact, be a coronavirus, which destroyed his re-election chances.

The last signature that I used on these boards, I first introduced following the general election in 2016.

I kept it up for 2+ years. It was hard to miss. In my signature, I also depicted Donald Trump as “Heat Miser.” A fictional cartoon character, tied to an earlier forecast about Donald Trump, before he even entered the race.

My Previous Signature on Unexplained Mysteries during the first half of Donald Trump's Presidency

Original Art Link 1 - Dec. 7, 2016

Original Art Link 2 - Jan. 22, 2017

 

Donald Trump as Heat Miser over Mt. Rainier

Quote

Perilous Premonitions for 2014-15

By Raptor Witness,  June 5, 2014 in Metaphysics & Psychic Phenomena 


Raptor Witness     2,078

Raptor Witness

Should I be like the NSA, who is both blind and deaf to the future, warning no one of danger?

I'm not paid to whisper, "collect it all."

The most important thing, the one thing they cannot collect, are the communications between Heaven and earth.

In fact, their attempts to so, have resulted in being made a mockery of.

Billions paid for blind guides, which shall continue, except for what I give them for free.

Let them find Heat Miser, now crackling under their feet.

Edited September 22, 2014 by Raptor Witness

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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aztek
1 hour ago, TrumanB said:

I really didn't mean to offend him personally. There is nothing personal in this discussion. It's just that idiots have a tendency to think that they know what they're doing and that they can make decisions by their own while smart ( or at least sensible ) people know that they need to hear opinions of authorities and look for leaders who lead by example.

lol, you mean  idiots that decided to wear a mask anyway regardless of what president says? yea, what idiots, right ? lol  i was talking about those, .

who were you talking abut?

do you honestly think those idiots"  who reject  the idea of masks would suddenly wear one if the potus said they should? despite warning from all  docs, history, common sense, would not caught dead wearing one? you think his word would have such a sway?

who is  the real idiot?  neither  of you insulted me, you both insulted yourself, lmao, bravo.

 

 

 

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Hankenhunter
1 hour ago, aztek said:

and he does, work hard, build something, become someone that matters,   if you need president to tell you to wear a mask during pandemic, you biggest problem is staring at you in the mirror,

I cant believe the irony of your post. You just described your average trumper to a T. If Trump had told his deplorables to wear a mask, 70-80 thousand people would still be alive. You kill me, aztek.

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Hankenhunter
9 hours ago, aztek said:

he may lost few angry seniors but he gained more  young black and hispanic voters. in any case none of them really  matter, EC matters

Yes, I saw the yuge crowd at the Whitehouse. All 100 of them. And they were fenced off from the general public.

fark_048qMi8nftJjj8YdompsuGsnnNU.jpg

Twenty bucks says he lies on twitter about the crowd size. :D

Edited by Hankenhunter
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Raptor Witness
3 hours ago, Hankenhunter said:

Yes, I saw the yuge crowd at the Whitehouse. All 100 of them. And they were fenced off from the general public.

fark_048qMi8nftJjj8YdompsuGsnnNU.jpg

Twenty bucks says he lies on twitter about the crowd size. :D

“Monkeys react to magic ....”

 

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Free99

I voted for Trump I hate Hilary Clinton for that matter Bill Clinton. And Obama was nothing but a racist POS. But yea Trump has pretty much let his cheese slide off his cracker. Sure Biden is nothing but crap. But this past year Trump has let this country end up in nothing but sorrow. He down played the virus to try and keep the stock market alive. He’s a business man nothing more than that. We needed not just a business man to run this country but also one that cares about the people in the nation and he doesn’t give a rats a$$ about people. I kept faith in him but when he put off stimulus negotiations until after election. Until he wins? Guess what he can stick it up his fat a$$ and they can keep their stimulus. He won’t get my vote again. 
Businesses will shut down and the economy will continue to suffer. One day this virus will be gone until another comes around. But Trump can get his stupid a$$ out of the White House he doesn’t deserve to be in it.

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Hankenhunter
On 10/11/2020 at 6:22 AM, Free99 said:

I voted for Trump I hate Hilary Clinton for that matter Bill Clinton. And Obama was nothing but a racist POS. But yea Trump has pretty much let his cheese slide off his cracker. Sure Biden is nothing but crap. But this past year Trump has let this country end up in nothing but sorrow. He down played the virus to try and keep the stock market alive. He’s a business man nothing more than that. We needed not just a business man to run this country but also one that cares about the people in the nation and he doesn’t give a rats a$$ about people. I kept faith in him but when he put off stimulus negotiations until after election. Until he wins? Guess what he can stick it up his fat a$$ and they can keep their stimulus. He won’t get my vote again. 
Businesses will shut down and the economy will continue to suffer. One day this virus will be gone until another comes around. But Trump can get his stupid a$$ out of the White House he doesn’t deserve to be in it.

See, there was the problem. You cant run country like a business. It's too fluid, dynamic, ever changing. Cause, and effect, and chaos run rampant side by side. Things change in an instant. No business model could survive. Basicly, the best the gov't can do is play catch up with the latest crap that hit the fan. 

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and then
17 hours ago, seanjo said:

He never said that..

Only the most stupid in that group actually still believe the lie.  The rest just push it because "OMB".  

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the13bats
50 minutes ago, seanjo said:

You (and others) are wilfully misunderstanding what he means...TDS.

TDS=TRUMPS DERANGEMENT SYNDROME , its a trem used for all the looney nutty stuff trump does and says, sure some worshippers of his dont care for the term but it fits him.

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and then
6 hours ago, aztek said:

that clause already exists,  EC trumps popular vote,  you may not like it but this is how it works.

Part of the Dem strategy seems to be demanding that Electors in Blue states vote for Biden even if he loses in that state.  The USSC recently ruled on that and it isn't legal to do it.

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the13bats
10 minutes ago, seanjo said:

Zzzzzzzz...

Trump has also been a bit hazy or dreary lately so sure you could be right hes tired too from his miricle bout of covid, good thing they used fetal cells to treat him. but his "trumps derangment syndrome" is more related to the looney stuff he says and does.

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Helen of Annoy
4 hours ago, seanjo said:

You (and others) are wilfully misunderstanding what he means...TDS.

Uh-huh. 

When someone is stupid enough to say injecting disinfectants into human body is something that should be "checked out" to see how it works, then any attempts to explain it with intention to prove it's not abysmally stupid, only makes people wonder what is your motive to deny the obvious truth. 

Let me teach you by an example. 

Tell me, what did Trump really meant to say when he said injecting something like disinfectants should be checked out?  

Also, tell me why Trump's statements have to be regularly explained as something that means the opposite of what he has said? 

 

Edit: And while you're explaining, please do explain why is treatment based on fetal cells acceptable for Trump, who, being pro-life, should have absolutely refused it? 

Edited by Helen of Annoy
fetal cells for Trump
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toast
10 hours ago, aztek said:

 me otoh, can make my own decisions 

On the shoulders of others. But as I mentioned several times already, host stupidity is to the benefit of the virus.

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Cookie Monster
On 10/11/2020 at 10:28 AM, Helen of Annoy said:

Uh-huh. 

When someone is stupid enough to say injecting disinfectants into human body is something that should be "checked out" to see how it works, then any attempts to explain it with intention to prove it's not abysmally stupid, only makes people wonder what is your motive to deny the obvious truth. 

Let me teach you by an example. 

Tell me, what did Trump really meant to say when he said injecting something like disinfectants should be checked out?  

Also, tell me why Trump's statements have to be regularly explained as something that means the opposite of what he has said? 

 

Edit: And while you're explaining, please do explain why is treatment based on fetal cells acceptable for Trump, who, being pro-life, should have absolutely refused it? 

Whats wrong with asking questions?

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Raptor Witness
On 10/11/2020 at 6:10 AM, toast said:

On the shoulders of others. But as I mentioned several times already, host stupidity is to the benefit of the virus.

 .... Best post I’ve seen in a while here.

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Helen of Annoy
21 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Whats wrong with asking questions?

There's generally nothing wrong with asking questions. 

In fact, by the questions asked you can accurately assess someone's IQ, sanity and literacy. 

So while there's nothing wrong with asking questions, there's something very wrong with an adult, supposedly literate, supposedly sane, who has to ask why don't we check out what happens when we inject someone with something like disinfectant, or why don't we irradiate lungs with UV light. 

Of course, all people should always be allowed to ask anything, especially if they need to learn from the answers, but people who have to ask why not inject disinfectant have no place blathering while the adults are trying to stop the pandemic. 

 

"I'm just asking questions" is popular among people who have no integrity to stand behind their words. They need an easy way out. They're just asking questions, they were just joking, they were just sarcastic... they didn't know it was wrong, they were taken out of context, they were misunderstood... 

I stand behind every word I have ever said, ready to apologize and correct myself when proven wrong, so I will ask again, in case someone misunderstood me before: 

Why is Trump considered to be pro-life, after he accepted the therapy based on stem cells, obtained from tissue from terminated pregnancies?     

Is he so uninformed, or is he unable to understand something so simple, or is he a gigantic hypocrite who doesn't care for fetuses after all, especially if he can benefit from their tissue? 

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Cookie Monster
1 hour ago, Helen of Annoy said:

There's generally nothing wrong with asking questions. 

In fact, by the questions asked you can accurately assess someone's IQ, sanity and literacy. 

So while there's nothing wrong with asking questions, there's something very wrong with an adult, supposedly literate, supposedly sane, who has to ask why don't we check out what happens when we inject someone with something like disinfectant, or why don't we irradiate lungs with UV light. 

Of course, all people should always be allowed to ask anything, especially if they need to learn from the answers, but people who have to ask why not inject disinfectant have no place blathering while the adults are trying to stop the pandemic. 

 

"I'm just asking questions" is popular among people who have no integrity to stand behind their words. They need an easy way out. They're just asking questions, they were just joking, they were just sarcastic... they didn't know it was wrong, they were taken out of context, they were misunderstood... 

I stand behind every word I have ever said, ready to apologize and correct myself when proven wrong, so I will ask again, in case someone misunderstood me before: 

Why is Trump considered to be pro-life, after he accepted the therapy based on stem cells, obtained from tissue from terminated pregnancies?     

Is he so uninformed, or is he unable to understand something so simple, or is he a gigantic hypocrite who doesn't care for fetuses after all, especially if he can benefit from their tissue? 

Its a leaders job to ask unorthodox questions.

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Helen of Annoy
56 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

Its a leaders job to ask unorthodox questions.

It's their job to have the answers.   

Trump had the first, immediate answer to pandemic situation, the official plan he was supposed to implement. But he knew better. He asked stupid questions instead and promoted irresponsible, childish behaviour. 

 

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RavenHawk
On 10/9/2020 at 5:44 PM, and then said:

The "Primary Model" of Helmut Norpoth has been accurate calling winners since 1912.  The only two he got wrong was Bush/Gore and Kennedy/Nixon.

https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-trump-win-november/

https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-trump/

https://www.newsweek.com/professor-who-accurately-predicted-25-out-27-elections-predicts-trump-2020-win-1516609

There are several other examples but these should give you enough info to understand that there are numerous different opinions about who will win. :tu:

I responded to a post in another thread that was about Lichtman in tangent, but I suppose this is a more appropriate thread, so I’m going to repost it and update it.

 I like Lichtman’s approach but I think the Prof isn’t going to get this right this time.  His perceptions are tainted by the MSM.  I went through his questions and came up with different answers.  I’ll explain my analysis.  I found 2 of them were tossups but even with the score I came up with, if those two are counted against Trump, there are 3 negatives for Trump and 10 for Biden.  I’ll run through the scoring first, then my analysis.  These keys relate to the incumbency.  I will give my score and then in parentheses, I will list Lichtman’s (Note: August is when he made his prediction).

Scores:

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. – F (F)

  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. – T (T)

  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. -T (T)

  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. -T (T)

  5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. -?F (F)

  6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. -T (F)

  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. -T (T)

  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. -?F (F)

  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. -T (F)

  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. -T (T)

  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. -T (F)

  12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. -T (F)

  13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. -T (T)

Explanation:

 

1) Party Mandate: Democrats hold more seats in the House. 

 

2) Contest: No serious contender.

 

3) Incumbency: This question is a head scratcher.  I thought that the sitting President *WAS* the incumbent??

 

4) Third Party: No serious third-party threat. 

 

5) Short-term economy: This is a tossup.  The crises is not Trump’s doing (I know, doesn’t matter).  But technically, the economy is not in recession.  It is on the rebound even though it is down.  The economy is recovering and recovering nicely.  We’re surer of its direction since August.  But people are hurting.  The Left manipulated this crisis but the MSM will never hold them accountable.  Biden won’t be able to help them any better.  He’s most likely to shutdown the nation and propose a $5 trillion stimulus package.  That would be the worse thing to happen to the people.  People will go from a perceived recession into a real one.

 

6) Long-term economy: Is strong with the promise of getting stronger.  Under Biden, he will kill this progress by imposing a Socialist agenda.  People are concerned with the ‘here and now’, but they aren’t stupid.  People aren’t going to sacrifice their future because of short-term pain.  Biden can’t compete against Trump with the economy.  Trump took a meager economy and toughened it up and made it robust enough to withstand this crisis.  Now it is expanding once again.

 

7) Policy Change:  Cutting taxes, removing regulations, nominating 3 supreme court justices and about 300 judges in the minor courts, Right to Try, VA reform, killing the ACA mandate, killing the AFFH, pulling out or the TPP and the Paris Accords, making a better trade deal with Canada and Mexico, adding a 6th military branch, strengthening the military, revitalizing NASA, Being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize 3 times (this has been since August when Lichtman made his prediction), and the list goes on.  But the major change is that he’s broken the status quo of prior administrations.  He makes promises and he keeps them.  Biden can’t keep a straight story.  You don’t know what he’s for or against??

 

8) Social Unrest: I call this a tossup only because it is clear where the social unrest is coming from and I don’t think the people are that stupid to fall for this intimidation.  But I know, it doesn’t matter if it his fault or not.  Most people understand that the violence of Antifa and BLM is coordinated by the Left.  Trump certainly could have come down hard on the violence but the cities where the violence occurs are cities with Democratic mayors and they didn’t want his help.  But then he would have been viewed as a dictator and that would have a more far reaching impact than the social unrest.  It would have created more.  He reacted to protect federal property and when asked, he assisted those mayors and governors.  He didn’t fall for the Anarchist’s trap.  He put the onus on those democrat mayors and governors.  They’re the ones that have tarnished reputations.  They are the ones that have put their own citizens in peril.  This key needs to be reworked because it is very easy for the opposition to create social unrest or crash the economy.  The Left are extremely efficient at it.

 

9) Scandal: Trump has no major scandals (unlike Biden).  Any perceived scandals are manufactured by the Left over the past five years.  They have all been debunked or defeated.

 

10) Foreign/military failure: Trump has none.  It’s that simple, don’t start wars if you don’t plan on winning it, thereby opening up the chances of a failure.

 

11) Foreign/military success: Trump has many from taking on China, and Iran.  Building a fragile rapport with Putin and Un.  Getting our allies to pull their weight.  Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing it as the capital of Israel.  That made it possible in making peace in the Middle East between Israel and at least 7 Arab nations.  Making peace between Kosovo and Serbia.  And pulling the world back from the cliff.  He defeated ISIS and killed Baghdadi.  He got Soleimani.  Terrorism is in decline.

 

12) Incumbent (party) Charisma: Trump has an honest charisma.  *Everyone* either loves him or hates him.  More appealing than Obama.  Obummer was a pessimist and Trump is the eternal optimist.  But as the saying goes, even bad press is better than none.  The enthusiasm has been overwhelming.  The Primaries had record turn outs.  Rallies are going off the charts.  Chants of “We love you” in affection rise up.  There are Trumptillias and car parades allover.  #Walkaway is growing.  Rallies are averaging about 30% Democrats.  Many of those never-Trumpers 4 years ago, didn’t believe that he could deliver.  Now that he has, they are more comfortable supporting him.  The Lenin Project is just spitting in the wind.

 

13) Challenger (party) Charisma: Biden and Harris are not appealing at all.  Harris dropped from the primaries because no one likes her.  Those that support Biden do so not because they like Biden but because they hate Trump.  You see more Trump supporters at Biden events.  That kind (of lack thereof) of appeal doesn’t last long.

 

The interesting thing that both Lichtman and Norpoth have stated is that they don’t pay attention to the polls.  I completely agree with that.  Trump may be down in the real polls but not as much as the MSM says he is.  Dems are always over polled because Reps don’t usually partake in polls.  But people do vote with their feet (I.e. Primaries and Rallies).  Right now, I think we are looking at a Trump landslide.  Biden cannot keep up with Trump.  The key is to have wide appeal, not concentrated appeal.  Another key should be added that covers the MSM role, in how effective are they in putting a negative light or a positive light on the incumbent?  When you have on average 96% of all stories about the incumbent are negative, that blows the realm of logic.  Now if they had just reported on the actual follies of the President, that could have turned into a negative.

 

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Autochthon1990
On 10/9/2020 at 9:19 PM, seanjo said:

Pretty sure measures taken are on a State level, not a federal level...like states and city's allowing mass protests, against federal advice...

Yeah what do those socialist pinkos think protesting is, some kind of constitutional right?! 

 

...Oh wait.

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DieChecker
On ‎10‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 3:15 PM, RavenHawk said:

 

Scores:

 

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. – F (F)

     

  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. – T (T)

     

  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. -T (T)

     

  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. -T (T)

     

  5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. -?F (F)

     

  6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. -T (F)

     

  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. -T (T)

     

  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. -?F (F)

     

  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. -T (F)

     

  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. -T (T)

     

  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. -T (F)

     

  12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. -T (F)

     

  13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. -T (T)

I'd agree on 11 and 12.

I'd disagree on 9. Just because accusations aren't necessarily true, doesn't make their being made into a circus any less a scandal. At least IMHO.

6 I think is a hard call. I read that 60+% of people say they are better off today then four years ago, but I also understand the Covid Virus has made economic progress fall back quite a bit.

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RavenHawk
10 hours ago, DieChecker said:

I'd agree on 11 and 12.

Just a nitpick on me, but I think it would be better suited for the Peace Prize nominations be move from Policy Change, to Foreign/Military successes.

 

I'd disagree on 9. Just because accusations aren't necessarily true, doesn't make their being made into a circus any less a scandal. At least IMHO.

And I agree with that as a general statement.  If there was even a single accusation that was valid, I would agree.  But there is none.  None of them have panned out.  There’s the old adage that just because none have been proven doesn’t mean that one doesn’t exist.  But in this case, there are none because there is none.  If one is examined closely enough, everyone would produce skeletons.  This is why this key needs to be reevaluated.  The Opposition Party can throw false accusations at a sitting President constantly to try to get something to stick.  The Left have shown us how to do it.  No President will be free of scandal.  This key needs to be a reflection of real scandal that harms the Administration.  In this case, there are no real scandal coming out of the Administration and none that have been perpetrated on this Administration has harmed it.

 

6 I think is a hard call. I read that 60+% of people say they are better off today then four years ago, but I also understand the Covid Virus has made economic progress fall back quite a bit.

Our recovery is better than most and some are still contracting.  Trump made the economy robust so that we could take on China and anything else, like covid.  Most people know that they aren’t going to get better with Biden.

 

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TrumanB

Well, two more days and we'll see if professor was correct.

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Sir Wearer of Hats
On 10/14/2020 at 4:05 AM, Cookie Monster said:

Its a leaders job to ask unorthodox questions.

Yes, of his advisors.... in private. 
 

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TrumanB

Can we say that professor Lichtman was correct again?

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