Trump to win in a landslide

[RoofGardener]

An interesting story.... 

Professor Helmut Norpoth has used a mathematical mode called the "Primary Model" to predict five out of the last six presidential elections. ( and when retrospectively used on previous elections, correctly 'predicted' 25 out of 27 of them. 

He is predicting not only a win for Donald Trump (on a 91%  probability), but a landslide, with him winning 362 electoral votes. 

https://patch.com/new-york/threevillage/stony-brook-professor-predicts-president-trump-landslide-win

Most interesting ! 

[quiXilver]

endlessly fascinating to 'local mind' is the 'what if' game.

 

time will tell... all others are selling something.

[Helen of Annoy]

https://theconversation.com/political-forecast-models-arent-necessarily-more-accurate-than-polls-or-the-weather-144266

Quote

Instead of relying on polls, Norpoth’s analysis, called “The Primary Model,” looks at the results of primary elections. For 2020, he observes that Trump won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries by wide margins, and therefore predicts the president will do better than Biden, who split those primaries with Bernie Sanders.

 

Nope. It worked with retrospective establishing the connection between primaries and elections, in sane conditions. 

But it's not just an election this time, it's referendum on irrational stupidity. And racism too.   

[+OverSword]

I think regardless of the formula utilized here this election has certain wildcard aspects that can't easily be factored in and make this formula as accurate as it has been.  Now if the corona virus had not hit and things had gone on in the direction they had been going trump would have a landslide victory especially given his entirely uninspiring opponent.  But with the upending of the economy and him saying pretty much all the wrong things about corona it's not so clear. 

[+OverSword]

18 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

https://theconversation.com/political-forecast-models-arent-necessarily-more-accurate-than-polls-or-the-weather-144266

 

Nope. It worked with retrospective establishing the connection between primaries and elections, in sane conditions. 

But it's not just an election this time, it's referendum on irrational stupidity. And racism too.   

Racism.  There is definitely a racist in the race, you are right. 

[Helen of Annoy]

@OverSword I didn't say it's unlikely your country will decide - in the election that is essentially a referendum - that irrational stupidity and racism aren't acceptable. 

I only said 2020 presidential election is a referendum on these matters. 

You choose between a reality show host who is against the reality itself and... well, anyone. Doesn't matter. A stuffed badger would do less damage and look more acceptable at formal occasions.  

 

[RAyMO]

Write In "Stuffed Badger" - I like it. 

[Helen of Annoy]

6 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Racism.  There is definitely a racist in the race, you are right. 

I'm an idiot, misunderstood your post. Ignore this. 

Edited October 14, 2020 by Helen of Annoy

[+OverSword]

5 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

@OverSword I didn't say it's unlikely your country will decide - in the election that is essentially a referendum - that irrational stupidity and racism aren't acceptable. 

I only said 2020 presidential election is a referendum on these matters. 

You choose between a reality show host who is against the reality itself and... well, anyone. Doesn't matter. A stuffed badger would do less damage and look more acceptable at formal occasions.  

 

Either way, whoever wins is going to be hated by about 50% of Americans and there will be four more years of useless hysteria so does it really matter?

Edited October 14, 2020 by OverSword

[Helen of Annoy]

15 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Either way, whoever wins is going to be hated by about 50% of Americans and there sill be four more years of useless hysteria so does it really matter?

Yes, it does matter. A lot.

Turnout is never 100% and I seriously doubt you've got 50% of population that is so utterly... you know. 

So it'll be Trump cult in tears, few incidents by lone lunatics, they will rise again and so on, who cares, while the new, real administration can start fixing the damage to the satisfaction of everyone sane. Majority is still sane. It was morbidly amusing, it lasted 4 years too long, it's time you save yourself from the grotesque caricature of everything that is wrong with your society. 

I mean, the world goes on, with or without the US, but I'd miss you and the last 4 years were really painful to watch. 

It's amazing that your country lasted 4 years on auto-pilot, but I seriously doubt it can go on like this for much longer.      

[+OverSword]

12 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Yes, it does matter. A lot.

Turnout is never 100% and I seriously doubt you've got 50% of population that is so utterly... you know. 

So it'll be Trump cult in tears, few incidents by lone lunatics, they will rise again and so on, who cares, while the new, real administration can start fixing the damage to the satisfaction of everyone sane. Majority is still sane. It was morbidly amusing, it lasted 4 years too long, it's time you save yourself from the grotesque caricature of everything that is wrong with your society. 

I mean, the world goes on, with or without the US, but I'd miss you and the last 4 years were really painful to watch. 

It's amazing that your country lasted 4 years on auto-pilot, but I seriously doubt it can go on like this for much longer.      

You may be right.  I wouldn't count on it.  It seems like a coin flip at this point.

[ian hacktorp]

30 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

So it'll be Trump cult in tears, few incidents by lone lunatics, they will rise again and so on, who cares, while the new, real administration can start fixing the damage to the satisfaction of everyone sane.

I don't know, Helen...it looks to me as though Trump may soon be running nearly unopposed.

There's quite a storm brewing right now over new revelations concerning Hunter Biden's activities in Ukraine, INCLUDING proof that Joe Biden was fully aware of it...despite his denials a few weeks ago.  Not good for Joe.

And, as if that weren't enough, a whistleblower has emerged, resulting in a re-tweet by President Trump, who has confirmed what many have been saying for quite some time.  Apparently, the botched Bin Laden raid, the downing of the Seal Team 6 Chinook helicopter, the Bengazi fiasco, and the Iran $152 billion payoff, are ALL tied together.  This implicates pretty much everyone of note in the Obama administration, including Biden, some of whom will face capital punishment.

In short, certain people in the previous administration ordered the execution of some 25 members of Seal Team 6 to keep them quiet, executed a few others for the same purpose, and then paid an extortion to Iran who was threatening to expose the whole sordid affair.

Obviously, this subject will soon merit a thread of its own.

[Tatetopa]

1 hour ago, OverSword said:

Either way, whoever wins is going to be hated by about 50% of Americans and there will be four more years of useless hysteria so does it really matter?

I think it will matter.  I do have some political views about equality and justice, but deep down, I am a selfish bast**d.  I look at Wall Street and financial news.

I see what the economy has done over the last 4 years, and the trend  especially in the last year before covid. It was flattening out.   President Trump's actions have not been great for the economy.   If he is around for another four, it will get worse.

The tax cut did not help the economy in the long term.  Cutting interest rates to zero is now an option that has been played, it is not available for a future bump to get things going. 

We did not win our trade war with China.  Steel and other basic industries did not see a resurgence.  Infrastructure has been neglected.  

I read a piece by Pres. Eisenhower about maintaining a high corporate tax rate.  His argument was that with a high tax rate, corporations would spend more money on expansion and research  that is deductible than on profits which are taxed.    I think he has been proved right.  

The President will never have qualified advisors or take the blame for failure, so we might just see another year or two of flat before decline.

 

[RavenHawk]

Anything can happen.  But the more and more I see, the more confident I am in that we are going to a Trump landslide.  I sense that the Democratic strategists see this too.  That is why they are ready to launch law suits.  This is an election of bases and the one who can energize their base more will win.  Trump's base is very energized.  Biden's base is too involved tearing down statues and looting and burning.  Early voting has begun and there are record turnouts.  My guess is that most of these are energized Trump supporters.

BTW, shouldn't this be merged with the Professor Lichtman post??

[+and-then]

39 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

Anything can happen.  But the more and more I see, the more confident I am in that we are going to a Trump landslide.  I sense that the Democratic strategists see this too.  That is why they are ready to launch law suits.  This is an election of bases and the one who can energize their base more will win.  Trump's base is very energized.  Biden's base is too involved tearing down statues and looting and burning.  Early voting has begun and there are record turnouts.  My guess is that most of these are energized Trump supporters.

BTW, shouldn't this be merged with the Professor Lichtman post??

The only way he can win without the USSC or House intervening is if he wins a number of votes that clearly proves that any outstanding ballots won't add up to enough to change the result.  I guess there HAS to be a record of REGISTERED VOTERS so that there is an actual limit on how many votes would be available.

[Tatetopa]

55 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

Anything can happen.  But the more and more I see, the more confident I am in that we are going to a Trump landslide.  I sense that the Democratic strategists see this too.  That is why they are ready to launch law suits.  This is an election of bases and the one who can energize their base more will win.  Trump's base is very energized.  Biden's base is too involved tearing down statues and looting and burning.  Early voting has begun and there are record turnouts.  My guess is that most of these are energized Trump supporters.

President Trump is already gearing up for lawsuits. He has said he wants  the supreme court filled because he expects it to decide the election in his favor.

President Trump is very disappointed with Barr because they found no evidence to indict Joe and Obama on unmasking.

President Trump is begging suburban women for their vote, but he has turned off many of them.  It appears that he is the desperate one.

If you look at those lines of people waiting 6-8 hours to vote, they don't all look like Trump supporters. 

Biden is way too conservative for BLM and antifa.  They are not his base,

It takes more than the limited base of either candidate to win this election.  The deciding votes may come from people concerned about covid-19 and the economy.  

But like you say, anything can happen.

[+and-then]

7 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

President Trump is already gearing up for lawsuits. He has said he wants  the supreme court filled because he expects it to decide the election in his favor.

He wants the vacancy filled because of the obvious train wreck we're headed for in 19 days.  Every day we see new stories about mail-in ballots going to former addresses, dead people, cats, in dumpsters... He will have to draw 60% or more of the REGISTERED VOTERS in the battleground states to have a chance to win.  I'm not concerned with ballot box stuffing in Blue states but it only takes a few thousand votes to turn an election in those battlegrounds and THAT is exactly what the Dems have in mind.  Put an extra 50K ballots out there, have most of them returned, with or without signatures and then let the media take over:  EVERY VOTE MUST COUNT!!!!   As an added bonus, if the litigation can be stretched out until January 20th without a result called then Pelosi gets the big chair for an unknowable amount of time.  

If not, I can't really imagine a need for 600 lawyers on Biden's team.  Trump's supporters are accused of being stupid but we're going to see just how gullible we are in the aftermath of this chaos.  The leadership of the Dems is about to see a surprise in a few weeks. 

~snip~

Edited October 15, 2020 by and then
Didn't want to step on any delicate toes...

[Tatetopa]

13 minutes ago, and then said:

He wants the vacancy filled because of the obvious train wreck we're headed for in 19 days.  Every day we see new stories about mail-in ballots going to former addresses, dead people, cats, in dumpsters... He will have to draw 60% or more of the REGISTERED VOTERS in the battleground states to have a chance to win.  I'm not concerned with ballot box stuffing in Blue states but it only takes a few thousand votes to turn an election in those battlegrounds and THAT is exactly what the Dems have in mind.  Put an extra 50K ballots out there, have most of them returned, with or without signatures and then let the media take over:  EVERY VOTE MUST COUNT!!!!   As an added bonus, if the litigation can be stretched out until January 20th without a result called then Pelosi gets the big chair for an unknowable amount of time.  

If not, I can't really imagine a need for 600 lawyers on Biden's team.  Trump's supporters are accused of being stupid but we're going to see just how gullible we are in the aftermath of this chaos.  The leadership of the Dems is about to see a surprise in a few weeks. 

I don't know how many battleground states have mail in ballots. From what I read, about 60% of voters do not trust mail in ballots and will vote in person. You maintain that it is only the Dems.  it is both parties gearing up to win any way they can.  However, ballot box stuffing and unsigned ballots being counted are not very likely. 

Republicans are every bit as amoral, dishonest, and power crazed as Democrats.  In spite of that we still do not live in the sh**hole country you think we do.

[+and-then]

1 minute ago, Tatetopa said:

In spite of that we still do not live in the sh**hole country you think we do.

I'll be delighted to admit you are correct but I don't think there's much chance of it.  The rush to a universal mail-in system that they KNOW will cause loss of trust can have no other real purpose.  Lawsuits will be filed before voting is even completed.  I think this is all about to get decidedly ugly.  The Left has been in hysteria mode for 4 years.  They see the damage that the riots have caused them and they know he's going to be re-elected.  They simply will not allow that, no matter who gets hurt in the process.

[Tatetopa]

1 minute ago, and then said:

I'll be delighted to admit you are correct but I don't think there's much chance of it.  The rush to a universal mail-in system that they KNOW will cause loss of trust can have no other real purpose.  Lawsuits will be filed before voting is even completed.  I think this is all about to get decidedly ugly.  The Left has been in hysteria mode for 4 years.  They see the damage that the riots have caused them and they know he's going to be re-elected.  They simply will not allow that, no matter who gets hurt in the process.

There can't be a universal mail in mandate since states are in charge of their elections, no matter how much Nancy wants it. There are likely to be lawsuits though that is true.

The Democrats will lose some support over the riots.  Republicans will lose support over the handling of coronavirus and the economy.  The question  to ponder is will the economy and coronavirus be more on the mind of an undecided swing state voter in Michigan or a riot in two square blocks of a city 2,000 miles away?

 

[the13bats]

And this guy says biden will win ny landslide,

 

[Raptor Witness]

16 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Yes, it does matter. A lot.

Turnout is never 100% and I seriously doubt you've got 50% of population that is so utterly... you know. 

So it'll be Trump cult in tears ..... Majority is still sane.

It's amazing that your country lasted 4 years on auto-pilot, but I seriously doubt it can go on like this for much longer.      

It matters a great deal if good people vote, but will they? I guess we’ll see. In the meantime, my poll suggests that it may not matter, as the election may not change the sad fate of my nation.

After all, how much more dead can a “frozen mummy” be? How unrelenting is the Destroying Angel? 

Even more “amazing,” the “angel of the dark room” will soon speak directly to the forecaster of “dawn down” from 2007, below.

I think perhaps a “new dawn trauma” is “dawn down.” It is when the sun, in fact, sets “on the West.”

Quote

Raptor Witness     2,101

•  
•   #6  
•  

Posted December 16, 2019

The human species thinks it knows best for everyBody, but now, a new room has been ordered for everyOne.

Death is all around us, yet life Flickrs in a flame not yet Flung.

See it, Mother, on the mountain; gasping, a gurgling brook of failure, Tortuous moaning, the bleating of the last surrender. 

The United States; frozen like a mummy, sickening hunger, the pain of a newdawn trauma.

Worlds away, I seek the outcasts, but the beast does not derive .... easy sniveling.

Cantor, I said, thunder from afar ... to her breastplate. 

Moaning, like the mummy, dies, then cries.

A storm is coming, a greenish, dark mass, the smell of iron in her blood.

Hurry, up the stairs, set free the angel of the dark room, in heavenly light.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Raptor Witness

•  

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Raptor Witness

[Vorg]

To me this is like guys talking about whose team is going to win and talking endlessly about it. My best advise is to just watch the game and see what happens.

[Helen of Annoy]

19 hours ago, ian hacktorp said:

I don't know, Helen...it looks to me as though Trump may soon be running nearly unopposed.

 

If Trump keeps with his therapy, it might be the other candidate suddenly unopposed. 

 

19 hours ago, ian hacktorp said:

There's quite a storm brewing right now over new revelations concerning Hunter Biden's activities in Ukraine, INCLUDING proof that Joe Biden was fully aware of it...despite his denials a few weeks ago.  Not good for Joe.

And, as if that weren't enough, a whistleblower has emerged, resulting in a re-tweet by President Trump, who has confirmed what many have been saying for quite some time.  Apparently, the botched Bin Laden raid, the downing of the Seal Team 6 Chinook helicopter, the Bengazi fiasco, and the Iran $152 billion payoff, are ALL tied together.  This implicates pretty much everyone of note in the Obama administration, including Biden, some of whom will face capital punishment.

In short, certain people in the previous administration ordered the execution of some 25 members of Seal Team 6 to keep them quiet, executed a few others for the same purpose, and then paid an extortion to Iran who was threatening to expose the whole sordid affair.

Obviously, this subject will soon merit a thread of its own.

Botched Bin Laden raid? Botched? Not to mention the rest of retarded conspiracy lore you regurgitated. Woe is the candidate for American president who has to resort to anti-American conspiracies. Shame on you all. Seriously. On the other hand, you can only further alienate sane people with beating dead Bengazi horse while the real, obvious problems are made worse by childish conspiracies instead of policies.  

  

You know, even if Biden was in some shady business in Russia or Ukraine, which he wasn't, he still paid a lot of taxes in the US. That man is not bankrupt or evading taxes. Which means that even if he was a crook, which he wasn't, he's good at that. It's what you believed Trump was. 

While Trump is in debt so yuge it means either he didn't and still doesn't know what he's doing, either he had no choice but to let others use him for business against his interests. I bet it's both. 

 

So, trumpers chose the wrong type of scandal to fabricate. It seems they know only one trick - but her e-mails. Now it's but his e-mails. Guess what, no one sane really cares, do you? 

Get an adult to the WH. Party affiliation doesn't matter at this point, just get an American whose loyalty to the US is not dubious. And who's not very visibly high as kite on steroids and who knows what else. Everything else are technicalities. 

[Helen of Annoy]

4 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

It matters a great deal if good people vote, but will they? I guess we’ll see. In the meantime, my poll suggests that it may not matter, as the election may not change the sad fate of my nation.

After all, how much more dead can a “frozen mummy” be? How unrelenting is the Destroying Angel? 

Even more “amazing,” the “angel of the dark room” will soon speak directly to the forecaster of “dawn down” from 2007, below.

I think perhaps a “new dawn trauma” is “dawn down.” It is when the sun, in fact, sets “on the West.”

 

Higher power works in mysterious ways, right? 

Mummy may be frozen, but hearts of people are not frozen. They just need to beat a bit more synchronous. Just for a while, then they can go back to quarreling in peace. 

Empires rise and fall, so will the US empire, but does it always happen in violent way, overnight? No. Rome was ceasing to exists for centuries. Brits still have a hefty percent of population that yet has to realize they're not imperial force for some time already. 

I don't see the end of the US just yet. I do see cockroaches panicking in light they thought they were ready for. Serve them right.