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Trump to win in a landslide


RoofGardener

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2 hours ago, godnodog said:

I don't know why people say Biden/Trump will win, its too soon and close to tell.

There is no serious third-party challenger, so it is going to be either Biden or Trump.  There are very few undecideds.  This is an election of bases.  It just depends on which camp is the more energized.  The is no question on that one.

Biden may end up the way Clinton did, by being the most voted, and Trump still be 2nd term President. The US doesn´t have a universal voter system, sure it's a one person one vote, and at the end the guy with more representants wins, not the most voted.

What you have to understand is that we are not a Democracy.  We are a Republic.  We are ruled by law and not by majority vote.  I’d suggest that you try learning about the Electoral College.  It’s ideal for voting in a very large diverse nation (it probably wouldn’t work in a small homogenous country).  As in majority rule, every vote counts but in a Republic, the winner must garner a broader appeal and not a concentration of votes.  There are over 3100 counties in this country.  In general, the one gaining more counties in a state, wins the state.  There are exceptions.  Each state has a number of electoral electors.  The one with more electors, wins.

Besides I fear that it will be decided by courts, and thus throwing the "democracy" system to the sewer.

No, it won’t throw our version of “democracy” into the sewer, but it will challenge it.  It will emerge from the crucible even stronger.  The court will usually side with the Electoral College and Trump looks to have the lead there.

 

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Yes, good numbers, the economy kept growing under Trump, but it does not look like they will continue to grow but flatten out.

That is divided up into 4 big sections, and of course subdivided into many more.

GDP Formula

The formula to calculate the components of GDP is Y = C + I + G + NX.2 That stands for: GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government + Net Exports, which are imports minus exports. In 2019,  U.S. GDP was 70% personal consumption, 18% business investment, 17% government spending, and negative 5% net exports.

We did not win the trade war, any trade war.  We are still importing more than we export, and that has increased over the last 3 years.

. In 2019, imports subtracted $3.49 trillion or a little more than in 2018. Exports added $2.53 trillion, about the same as 2017 and 2018. As a result, international trade subtracted $950 billion from GDP, more than $920 billion it subtracted in 2018, and the $859 billion it subtracted in 2017.

Our manufacturing sector is in trouble.

https://www.newsweek.com/manufacturing-health-us-falls-10-year-low-economists-predict-recession-2020-1441934

 

A key indicator of the health of manufacturing in the United States fell to 10-year-lows in May, a bad sign for the economy going forward. The drop comes as President Donald Trump promises to revive manufacturing in the United States by fighting trade wars with China and Mexico.

The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell by 2.5 points last month, its lowest level since September 2009, according to IHS Markit, the company that conducts the survey. Additionally, new orders of goods contracted for the first time in 10 years.

"May saw U.S. manufacturers endure the toughest month in nearly ten years, with the headline PMI down to its lowest since the height of the global financial crisis," wrote Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in a statement. "New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2009, causing increasing numbers of firms to cut production and employment."

 

United States Manufacturing Production

United States Manufacturing Production

If you look at the line there, manufacturing production started declining before covid pandemic, then it hit bottom.  Look at the Trend, it is not just Trump, but he was unsuccessful at reversing it.  Foxconn turned out to be an expensive joke and Carrier did not bring back permanent jobs.  

We continue to import more than we export, manufacturing declines, infrastructure is not being replaced.  A tax cut and corporate bail outs have put us further in debt without turning things around. The next few years will be rough.

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1 hour ago, acidhead said:

The graph @Tatetopa posted actually shows a V - shaped recovery.  The economy is bouncing back as predicted.

Well yes it does.  This is not the entire economy as a whole, it is the manufacturing sector   and it is coming back from negative numbers to zero.  As I said above, the decline  is not just Trump's term, it has been going downward since at least 2012.

We will recover from covid, but the downward trend in manufacturing and the upward trend in imports is a longer term problem.   I can't in all honesty claim Biden will do anything about it either, but if we run our economy in 4 year election cycles and ignore other trends, times will get harder and harder for average people.  We are not going in a good way if we are looking for long term prosperity.

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When you see United States Manufacturing PMI graph for 10 year period (9 years, actually) from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi and read latest news from there

Quote

US Factory Activity Strongest in Near 2 Years: Markit
The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.3 in October of 2020 from 53.2 in September, preliminary estimates showed. The reading pointed to the fourth straight month of growth in factory activity and the strongest since January of 2019. Despite the rate of production growth slowing, the expansion in new orders accelerated and was the sharpest since January 2019. The upturn broadly stemmed from domestic clients as new export orders fell for the first time since July. Nonetheless, firms were better able to process new business inflows as the accumulation in backlogs of work eased to only a marginal rate. As such, manufacturers registered a slower rise in employment. Goods producers noted the increased use of discounting to attract clients during October, with selling prices rising only moderately. In contrast, cost burdens rose the steepest rate since January 2019 amid supplier shortages. Finally, manufacturers indicated greater confidence in the outlook for output. less
2020-10-23

kinda gives some slightly different perspective than "Trump ruined economy".

Edited by bmk1245
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56 minutes ago, bmk1245 said:

When you see United States Manufacturing PMI graph for 10 year period (9 years, actually) from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi and read latest news from there

kinda gives some slightly different perspective than "Trump ruined economy".

Obama handed trump a great economy trump didnt work and build it no matter how much unjustified self praise he bestows on himself for it, it was akin to him using his dads money to be a doofus  playboy and failed businessmen,

Trump did okay in smooth water but the moment covid hit came the time to test trumps mettle could he cut the muster?

And of course that answer was a glaring "no" with his grossly incompatant life costing failure of a response to covid, and that led to a disaster with the ecomomy, of course a better response to covid would have meant less damage to the economy,

voters see this and since trump didnt build the great economy he was handed it people do not going on his countless other fails believe he can rebuild it seeing as he never has plans just excuses and blsming others, voters dont miss that either.

So yeah, its a perspective to trumps ruined economy.

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9 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

There is no serious third-party challenger, so it is going to be either Biden or Trump.  There are very few undecideds.  This is an election of bases.  It just depends on which camp is the more energized.  The is no question on that one.
 


What you have to understand is that we are not a Democracy.  We are a Republic.  We are ruled by law and not by majority vote.  I’d suggest that you try learning about the Electoral College.  It’s ideal for voting in a very large diverse nation (it probably wouldn’t work in a small homogenous country).  As in majority rule, every vote counts but in a Republic, the winner must garner a broader appeal and not a concentration of votes.  There are over 3100 counties in this country.  In general, the one gaining more counties in a state, wins the state.  There are exceptions.  Each state has a number of electoral electors.  The one with more electors, wins.

 

 

 

 

No, it won’t throw our version of “democracy” into the sewer, but it will challenge it.  It will emerge from the crucible even stronger.  The court will usually side with the Electoral College and Trump looks to have the lead there.

 

 

 

I know what electoral is and why it was created.

Portugal is also a republic and a democracy, and funny thing we're also ruled by law and we have direct vote for the presidential election, no middle man. we also have legislative elections, direct and balanced, in an electoral district you have 50% of the votes you have 50% of the deputies not 0 or 100% (unless that zone has 1 deputy), in our system with multiple parties a party with (theoretical) 10% of the votes will have 10% of deputies (if mathematics allows it).

Ay the end if the day the political force with 51% wins, if its a coalition then the combine voting results has at least 51% wins. SIZE IS IRRELEVANTE.

See not that hard even for the USA.

Edited by godnodog
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1 hour ago, the13bats said:

[...]

So yeah, its a perspective to trumps ruined economy.

OK, maybe statista wrong. Lets see another source https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-growth-rate

2010-2016 - trend with negative slope, 2010-2019 - trend with positive slope. Average annual growth 2014-2016 - 2.3%, average annual growth 2017-2019 - 2.58%.

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12 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

.  My major beef is his handling of the economy and covid19.

Yet when I asked you about his covid above you ignore it. Economy was best ever and is roaring back despite covid. What's your beef with that? 

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On 10/28/2020 at 3:38 AM, skliss said:

Yet when I asked you about his covid above you ignore it. Economy was best ever and is roaring back despite covid. What's your beef with that? 

Greetings skliss.  With respect, I  am not ignoring you, I just don't know how to answer.  I tend to long answers and you have told ne in the past I am too windy..  If it was simple and short like, I hate Trump, that would be easy, but  it is not.

I think I said this above, it is not all Trump's fault but he has been a distraction rather than a cure.  He can't bring manufacturing back just by a promise.  It has been declining for more than a decade.  Every year for the last 3 even though we have has a trade war with China, we have been importing more every year than we export.  We haven't done anything about infrastructure.

I also said above that I don't think Biden will do much about it either.  

For me it is the whole system we have, short term views and pie in the sky promises from both sides. It seems like Donald Trump was not an outsider solution but more of the same.

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42 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Greetings skliss.  With respect, I  am not ignoring you, I just don't know how to answer.  I tend to long answers and you have told ne in the past I am too windy..  If it was simple and short like, I hate Trump, that would be easy, but  it is not.

I think I said this above, it is not all Trump's fault but he has been a distraction rather than a cure.  He can't bring manufacturing back just by a promise.  It has been declining for more than a decade.  Every year for the last 3 even though we have has a trade war with China, we have been importing more every year than we export.  We haven't done anything about infrastructure.

I also said above that I don't think Biden will do much about it either.  

For me it is the whole system we have, short term views and pie in the sky promises from both sides. It seems like Donald Trump was not an outsider solution but more of the same.

How can you say he hasn't brought manufacturing back when that's what's been happening the last 3 years? All your posts seem to be of the "I don't like Trump" variety or completely oblivious of what has been going on. I guess I'm hard on you because I thought you were smarter than those answers. 

He's been completely different than the usual....I have had 2 beefs with the typical politicians on both sides...one the crappy interviews most stations do where they ask a politician a question and then the politician talks all around it, saying nothing and uses up the allotted time...so I learned nothing. One of the reasons i like fox is they actually make them answer. Two...that they promise the same things every cycle and do absolutely nothing until it's time to promise the exact thing again. Trump does neither of those ... he actually works his butt off and makes changes...works outside the government box. It's encouraging and impressive.

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1 hour ago, skliss said:

How can you say he hasn't brought manufacturing back when that's what's been happening the last 3 years? All your posts seem to be of the "I don't like Trump" variety or completely oblivious of what has been going on. I guess I'm hard on you because I thought you were smarter than those answers. 

H skliss.  How can I?  Well, just from looking at numbers and not listening to boasts from either side.  It is what I see, I could be wrong, but it is what I see.  I have seen it over the last 20+ years and the last three didn't change much.  Since I have been in high-tech manufacturing for almost 40 years, that is where my interest lies.  I guess I have not seen an executive order, or a trade war, or legislation that has changed that long term trend. Just my opinion based on not what I want to happen but what seems to be happening.  President Trump may be completely different in his approach, but as for results, I have not seen a turn around in the  area of manufacturing.

 

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24 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

H skliss.  How can I?  Well, just from looking at numbers and not listening to boasts from either side.  It is what I see, I could be wrong, but it is what I see.  I have seen it over the last 20+ years and the last three didn't change much.  Since I have been in high-tech manufacturing for almost 40 years, that is where my interest lies.  I guess I have not seen an executive order, or a trade war, or legislation that has changed that long term trend. Just my opinion based on not what I want to happen but what seems to be happening.  President Trump may be completely different in his approach, but as for results, I have not seen a turn around in the  area of manufacturing.

 

Weird...I worked for a manufacturing company for many years and hubby always has....he's a Safety Engineer so we are always aware of when the economy is good for manufacturing and when it isnt...the 1st guy with the big salary to go when it's bad is the safety guy. They don't want to pay and they certainly don't want to spend on safety. When the economy comes back he's the 1st hired to fix all the problems that cropped up when they had no safety guy.  Right now we are doing great...especially before covid. Trump removed many of the restrictions and lowered taxes which made it viable for companies to come back. So simple yet beyond politicians thinking process. It's hard to believe you haven't seen it for yourself. Our retirement plans were soaring. 

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3 hours ago, skliss said:

Weird...I worked for a manufacturing company for many years and hubby always has....he's a Safety Engineer so we are always aware of when the economy is good for manufacturing and when it isnt...the 1st guy with the big salary to go when it's bad is the safety guy. They don't want to pay and they certainly don't want to spend on safety. When the economy comes back he's the 1st hired to fix all the problems that cropped up when they had no safety guy.  Right now we are doing great...especially before covid. Trump removed many of the restrictions and lowered taxes which made it viable for companies to come back. So simple yet beyond politicians thinking process. It's hard to believe you haven't seen it for yourself. Our retirement plans were soaring. 

I am glad to hear that.  My retirement has been doing great too.  I guess our personal experiences color how we view the world.  I haven't been laid off myself, but I have survived some 30% layoffs and some boom times too.  Right now, it is in the doldrums.

I am glad you said that, I can see that you have been personally affected by policies.  That's good to hear.

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On 10/27/2020 at 8:36 PM, Tatetopa said:

We did not win the trade war, any trade war.  We are still importing more than we export, and that has increased over the last 3 years.

You think it’s over?  It’s barely begun.  We just established a beachhead, that is all.  Now, after the election, we’ll need to regroup and push into the hinterland.  If Trump is reelected, this will be Normandy.  If Biden is elected, it will be Dieppe.

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I wonder, does anyone remember who said "It’s not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they’re heavily subsidized", "Our workers are the most productive on Earth, and if the playing field is level, I promise you – America will always win"?

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23 minutes ago, bmk1245 said:

I wonder, does anyone remember who said "It’s not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they’re heavily subsidized", "Our workers are the most productive on Earth, and if the playing field is level, I promise you – America will always win"?

 

Not trying to be facetious, but are you being sarcastic?  You know it was Obama that said that??  I distinctly remember hearing that come out of his mouth and thinking, here comes another lie.  He touted how his Administration had brough trade cases against China “at nearly twice the rate as the last administration”.  That would be nice if the substance of the cases had a chance in hell of succeeding.  Otherwise, it is just a deflection of reality.  The prior sentence “It’s not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated.” made it clear as to the agenda.  Obama was never for us winning.  What better way to marginalize the pirating if you just send China our manufacturing?  Saying that America would always win is a deception.  Obama never wanted a level playing field.

 

Edited by RavenHawk
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13 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

 

Not trying to be facetious, but are you being sarcastic?  You know it was Obama that said that??  I distinctly remember hearing that come out of his mouth and thinking, here comes another lie.  He touted how his Administration had brough trade cases against China “at nearly twice the rate as the last administration”.  That would be nice if the substance of the cases had a chance in hell of succeeding.  Otherwise, it is just a deflection of reality.  The prior sentence “It’s not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated.” made it clear as to the agenda.  Obama was never for us winning.  What better way to marginalize the pirating if you just send China our manufacturing?  Saying that America would always win is a deception.  Obama never wanted a level playing field.

 

 

Little bit...

The point is, slap Trump signature under these sentences, and from the left you will hear "See?!!! Trump is racist, chauvinist, fascist..."

Edited by bmk1245
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19 minutes ago, bmk1245 said:

Little bit...

The point is, slap Trump signature under these sentences, and from the left you will hear "See?!!! Trump is racist, chauvinist, fascist..."

This just showcases how the Left are hypocrites, gaslighters, and sociopaths.  In the last four years, it is they that have done the things they blame Trump for.

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19 hours ago, skliss said:

..I worked for a manufacturing company for many years and hubby always has....he's a Safety Engineer so we are always aware of when the economy is good for manufacturing and when it isnt...the 1st guy with the big salary to go when it's bad is the safety guy. They don't want to pay and they certainly don't want to spend on safety.

Thanks very much for this part. You have caused me to start some research.

I spent my first 10 years as an engineer in the lumber industry.  I was on site for two fatalities and five major maimings,  I was a first responder and helped carry the stretcher for one of those.

When I hear about removing regulations from industry, the first two things I think about are safety and pollution.  I know things are a lot safer now than they were when I started, but that sort of thing worries me.   

I have never looked at the list of regulations the Trump Administration has removed, but I will. If they are removing bureaucratic impediments, then great.   If they make companies less responsible for worker safety and make it easier to discharge waste, then that seems counter to what working people and communities need.  

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President Trump is holding 14 rallies in the next three days. FOURTEEN,

The man is unstoppable.

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Has anyone seen anything like this for a President?

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1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

Thanks very much for this part. You have caused me to start some research.

I spent my first 10 years as an engineer in the lumber industry.  I was on site for two fatalities and five major maimings,  I was a first responder and helped carry the stretcher for one of those.

When I hear about removing regulations from industry, the first two things I think about are safety and pollution.  I know things are a lot safer now than they were when I started, but that sort of thing worries me.   

I have never looked at the list of regulations the Trump Administration has removed, but I will. If they are removing bureaucratic impediments, then great.   If they make companies less responsible for worker safety and make it easier to discharge waste, then that seems counter to what working people and communities need.  

It's bureaucratic. Trust me, hubby is Mr. Safety. He takes it extremely seriously and is a big Trump supporter. Safety regulations have always been stringent.  In his career he's specialized in coming into companies that need complete overhauls and gets them up to speed. It's very stressful. But like I said, when the economy goes downwards they all think...I'll get rid of one big salary...we can handle safety on our own. And they never can. 

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16 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Has anyone seen anything like this for a President?

Truly Organic.  Unscripted honest affection!  Unlike with Obama, Hilary, or Biden of which all support seemed/seems forced.

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