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RoofGardener

Trump to win in a landslide

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AstralHorus
On 10/14/2020 at 12:11 PM, RoofGardener said:

An interesting story.... 

Professor Helmut Norpoth has used a mathematical mode called the "Primary Model" to predict five out of the last six presidential elections. ( and when retrospectively used on previous elections, correctly 'predicted' 25 out of 27 of them. 

He is predicting not only a win for Donald Trump (on a 91%  probability), but a landslide, with him winning 362 electoral votes. 

https://patch.com/new-york/threevillage/stony-brook-professor-predicts-president-trump-landslide-win

Most interesting ! 

Funny, I heard a professor  say the same thing about biden....

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/05/professor-allan-lichtman-predicts-joe-biden-beat-donald-trump/3304680001/

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Sir Wearer of Hats
14 minutes ago, AstralHorus said:

‘Tis the beauty of mathematics, I put the correctly chosen numbers into an algorithm and get the answer you want to see.

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acidhead

Democrat Vernon Jones crowd surfing at MAGA Rally yesterday in Georgia

:D

 

20201017_165851.jpg

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Michelle
1 hour ago, acidhead said:

Democrat Vernon Jones crowd surfing at MAGA Rally yesterday in Georgia

Just look at all those damned racist rednecks! :lol:

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the13bats
8 hours ago, Gunn said:

I was just messing with you bud, it really doesn't matter to me who you support, and I noticed your location says your in Eustis, FL. I love the lakes in that area. Beautiful scenery.

Anyhoo, I thought you might be a Biden supporter because your quoting me caught me off guard.:D But what's the political climate look like where your at? Lots of Trump supporters or a change in tide for Biden?

I was in orlando 46 years i needed something a bit more Mayberry, lol, covid stopped it but there were car shows and downtown shindigs weekly here.

Who really knows, i guess about 6 trump yard signs to 1 or 2 biden, seems the folks around the lake lean trump from yard signs, people seem subdued, you know worn out from 2020, i just want the election and year over with.

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DarkHunter
6 hours ago, Gunn said:

Hey what about Independent voters you got anything on that, DH?

All I go by is this website and they haven't updated the damn thing since August , but yeah there definitely has been a rise registered Rep voters lately.;)

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Florida hasnt updated that information cause voter registration for Florida ends at the start of October and it seems they put the final numbers in one report instead of updating for September then doing a final report for the first week of October.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/bookclosing/bookclosing-reports-regular/

Like most state government ran websites getting to that page wasnt the most intuitive I have done but it has the final confirmed voter registration for Florida.

As it currently stands Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters, Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters, 3,969,603 registered under something else (3,753,286 having no party affiliation).  So the difference between Republican and Democrats have been cut to 134,242 which is less then half the difference from 2016.  But it will really come down to how the independents will vote in Florida but with how polarized elections have become now, despite what political adds try to show, the over whelming majority of people tend to not switch votes from the previous election.

Just to add in it will be interesting to see whose strategy will work and whose wont as the Republicans have gone for the more traditional strategy of trying to register more voters, hench why newly registered voters for Republicans are 2 to 3 times higher then newly registered Democrats, while Democrats are trying a new strategy of trying to make voting easier in an attempt to get more Democrats to votes instead of adding new Democrats to the party, hench why they been pushing early voting and mail in voting so hard.  Hard to say which strategy will work best.

Edited by DarkHunter
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acidhead

Uncle Ted!!!

:D

The Motor City Madman!!

 

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Raptor Witness

Trump almost killed the friend, who was helping him prep for the first debate.

What kind of person, doesn’t test to protect others, and then lies about his testing status during the second debate?

A monster ....

A real live monster .... who doesn’t deserve to be elected dog catcher.

Speaking of dogs, It’s time for retired General James Mattis to say something publicly about the monster, he served.

Where is the silent “patriot” in defense of his country now, or is he indeed  “mad?”

Edited by Raptor Witness
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acidhead

2 MAGA rally's in two States today again for 2 days in a row

 

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Cookie Monster
7 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

I know how polling is done, I have a pretty good feeling I know more about it then you do actually.  

Main problem with all these public polls are they arent showing any margin of error, which technically makes the polls worthless as an information source.  Normally that's done when polls want to hide something.  I havent looked at the polling data recently but I remember from earlier polls a lot of them had margins of error if around 3% to 4%, sometimes even higher.  The effect being a lot of the polls actually had Trump and Biden statistically tied.

Plus there are the problems of assumptions made in the polling such as how many from each group will turn out to vote, how many new voters/those deemed unlikely voters decide to vote, and a few other assumptions which the polling misjudged last time and hasnt proven they have corrected those assumptions correctly beyond just saying they have.

Either way in about 3 weeks it will be determined if Trump will be president for 4 more years or not.

Who is the source of his poll?

What demographics were asked? What was the actual question asked? Who asked the question and in what setting? What modelling was used to compile the statistics?

If they send a black guy into a Californian university asking a questions such as what do you think about Trumps wall and will you vote for him? Then you arent going to get a result that can accurately predict the outcome of the election.

Polling means very little especially when the candidate has so much vitriol against him and the feelings amongst some segments of the population are running high. I predict a landslide Trump win.

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the13bats
1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

I predict a landslide Trump win.

What i find the most amusing about this "landslide" prediction from a few trumper worshippers is trump had it better in 2016 people didnt really like hilly yet she spanked don in pop vote he didnt have a landslide in 2016, now 4 later after his seemingly never ending disastrous grossly incompatant epic failures, ruined ecomomy, no plans and his old played out blaming others hes lost support not gained it, there might be a landslide 2020 but wont be for trump he made sure of that himself.

I knew don was doomed when the villages dumped him and mcconnell said he has no confidence in trump.

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RAyMO
6 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Florida hasnt updated that information cause voter registration for Florida ends at the start of October and it seems they put the final numbers in one report instead of updating for September then doing a final report for the first week of October.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/bookclosing/bookclosing-reports-regular/

Like most state government ran websites getting to that page wasnt the most intuitive I have done but it has the final confirmed voter registration for Florida.

As it currently stands Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters, Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters, 3,969,603 registered under something else (3,753,286 having no party affiliation).  So the difference between Republican and Democrats have been cut to 134,242 which is less then half the difference from 2016.  But it will really come down to how the independents will vote in Florida but with how polarized elections have become now, despite what political adds try to show, the over whelming majority of people tend to not switch votes from the previous election.

Just to add in it will be interesting to see whose strategy will work and whose wont as the Republicans have gone for the more traditional strategy of trying to register more voters, hench why newly registered voters for Republicans are 2 to 3 times higher then newly registered Democrats, while Democrats are trying a new strategy of trying to make voting easier in an attempt to get more Democrats to votes instead of adding new Democrats to the party, hench why they been pushing early voting and mail in voting so hard.  Hard to say which strategy will work best.

Though isn't it correct that though registered Democrat or Republican - you don't actually have to vote for a Republican or a Democrat?

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the13bats
38 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Though isn't it correct that though registered Democrat or Republican - you don't actually have to vote for a Republican or a Democrat?

Yeah, im reg rep, long story as ive never gone party myself.

I need to fix it but it has sentamental attachment

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Sir Wearer of Hats

I predict whoever wins, Washington burns.

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Aroundthecorner
5 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

I predict whoever wins, Washington burns.

We the people and all that you mean?

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DarkHunter
4 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Though isn't it correct that though registered Democrat or Republican - you don't actually have to vote for a Republican or a Democrat?

You dont have to but it does generally point to how a person votes.  There will be exceptions of course of people who dont vote a straight party ticket or those who break with their party but if someone registers for a party in an election year they will almost certainly vote straight party ticket for that party.  Also politics are heavily polarized now and their is very little flipping of people from how they voted previously.  Flipping does happen but it's only happening in a small minority of people.

The fact that Republicans have closed the voter registration gap by a significant margin is a good sign for Trump winning Florida especially with the Democrats trying a new and largely untested strategy.  

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stevewinn

in just over two weeks lets hope Trump wins another term in office, he's been making America great again, whatever your politics you can see Trump as stopped the rot. Obama made America look weak on the world stage, Iran, North Korea, China, European Union. all took pot shots at the U.S. They don't do it any more.

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RoofGardener
10 hours ago, acidhead said:

Uncle Ted!!!

:D

The Motor City Madman!!

 

DISGUSTING. Obviously a white nationalist KKK supporter who murders the American national anthem !! :(

 

DISGUSTING..an obvious White Nationalist upholding a Racism Regime with his sick guitar performance. He may as weill have MURDERED trans-gender lesbian children

 

OUTRAGOUS - A  Racist While Nationalist lesbian-murdering transgender- killing anti-black... oh. wait.... 

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Gunn
15 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Good to see you around.

You too man. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods?

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, Gunn said:

You too man. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods?

Making it through the forest fires was a rough go.  Some of my  family in southern Oregon was on evacuation alert.  Hard to do with horses and livestock, but a lucky drop in wind saved their properties.

Up in my neighboring fair city, Portland, some of the demonstrators have been at it just about long enough to collect social security.  Course the statues  of Lincoln and Roosevelt were pulled down by Indians, not BLM.  I think we will have a new mayor come election time.

Being a selfish bast***, my biggest battle this summer was with the squirrels over the last of my plums.  Apples and pears are too big for them to carry off.

Stay safe.

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Big Jim
10 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Who is the source of his poll?

What demographics were asked? What was the actual question asked? Who asked the question and in what setting? What modelling was used to compile the statistics?

As I recall, the news used to supply this information.  Along with the results, they would cite the source by name, Zogby, Harris, etc., and state the margin of error.  Now all I hear is "the polls"  say this or that with no other reference to validify their claims.  The poll could be a show of hands in the newsroom for all we know.

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Tatetopa
15 hours ago, acidhead said:

Uncle Ted!!!

Is this the guy who shat in his hand at his army physical to avoid Vietnam because his music was more important then married a 15 year old? No wonder he backs Trump.  Soul Brothers.

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Sir Wearer of Hats
9 hours ago, Aroundthecorner said:

We the people and all that you mean?

No, DC. Either one side because their boy lost, or potentially, that same side because their boy won will have a series of “very peaceful protests”. 

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acidhead

POTUS in California today

 

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skliss
1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

Is this the guy who shat in his hand at his army physical to avoid Vietnam because his music was more important then married a 15 year old? No wonder he backs Trump.  Soul Brothers.

Actually he said he acted goofy and took drugs but he retracted that later. His record shows he had a student deferment and later a 4f medical one. His records say he could be called in a time of "national emergency". Technically and legally he didn't dodge. 

And i believe the girl was 17... not much better but had papers signed by her parents. I think that was back in the 70's

 

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