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Still Waters

Optimism can be dangerous during a pandemic

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Still Waters
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For those of us who insist on seeing the glass half full, even when the miserable brigade point out that it’s also half empty, COVID-19 poses particular challenges.

In a pandemic, optimism has a dark side. In situations where danger is present, excessive optimism (sometimes called irrational or unrealistic optimism) can have severe negative consequences. What is normally a strength of optimists (risk taking) becomes a dangerous weakness.

Because we believe that things will work out well even where there is little evidence to support this perspective, we tend to minimise risks, underestimate costs and ignore warning signs. We might misjudge our vulnerability to COVID-19, believing without justification that we are less likely to catch it.

We also might be less cautious when walking into crowded spaces and less motivated to obey restrictions. Even when we catch the virus, we’re more likely to believe that it is “just a cold” and so more likely to continue going about our daily routines. By doing this we are putting ourselves and others at risk. And the consequences can be deadly.

https://theconversation.com/why-optimism-can-be-dangerous-during-a-pandemic-148073

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and then
1 hour ago, Dustyrose33 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-passes-single-day-record-for-new-covid-19-cases/ar-BB1albuf?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

Yes, optimism is dangerous during this pandemic, and Trump is still saying it's going away and it is most definitely not.   He has an irrational, unrealistic view of the crisis.

Or maybe he sees his role as our leader to present a positive outlook?  Realistically, which adults are going to listen to him and not medical advice?  The difference between his attitude and Biden's, for example, is that Joe is looking to a "dark winter" while Trump is talking about progress and moving the country forward.  The reality is that the fatality rate is falling and if people use common sense by good hand washing hygiene and mask wearing in public, they've done all they can to avoid the virus short of literally hiding in an airtight bunker.   If you'd prefer a leader that hides from reality, good luck with that.  I prefer to live life and take what chances I have to.

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Dustyrose33
25 minutes ago, and then said:

Or maybe he sees his role as our leader to present a positive outlook?  Realistically, which adults are going to listen to him and not medical advice?  The difference between his attitude and Biden's, for example, is that Joe is looking to a "dark winter" while Trump is talking about progress and moving the country forward.  The reality is that the fatality rate is falling and if people use common sense by good hand washing hygiene and mask wearing in public, they've done all they can to avoid the virus short of literally hiding in an airtight bunker.   If you'd prefer a leader that hides from reality, good luck with that.  I prefer to live life and take what chances I have to.

I've been away from the board due to medical reasons and was hoping things were getting better.   Nothing wrong with a positive outlook, but several states are reporting a rise in cases.   That don't sound to me like it's going away.   

Edited by Dustyrose33
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Katniss
1 hour ago, Dustyrose33 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-passes-single-day-record-for-new-covid-19-cases/ar-BB1albuf?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

Yes, optimism is dangerous during this pandemic, and Trump is still saying it's going away and it is most definitely not.   He has an irrational, unrealistic view of the crisis.

Meh, I think in secret he does have a realistic view about this virus getting worse this winter, but of course he's telling his supporters not to worry so as to get votes. Politics over life, it's what selfish self-centered people do because they want their pie in the sky and the consequences be damned.

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and then
11 minutes ago, Dustyrose33 said:

I've been away from the board due to medical reasons and was hoping things were getting better.   Nothing wrong with a positive outlook, but several states are reporting a rise in cases.   That don't sound to me like it's going away.   

I agree, it's a virus and it's here to stay.  All I'm saying is that whether we shut down our lives and economy or boldly go about our lives (while taking all the recommended precautions) is our only choice.  This virus will continue to mutate and hopefully, it will eventually have an effective vaccine, kind of like what we do with the flu each year.

7 minutes ago, Katniss said:

Meh, I think in secret he does have a realistic view about this virus getting worse this winter, but of course he's telling his supporters not to worry so as to get votes. Politics over life, it's what selfish self-centered people do because they want their pie in the sky and the consequences be damned.

What course of action do you recommend?  How long would you impose a lockdown?  I mean, understanding that this virus is never going away, how would you handle the risks?

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Katniss
36 minutes ago, and then said:

What course of action do you recommend?  How long would you impose a lockdown?  I mean, understanding that this virus is never going away, how would you handle the risks?

Nobody here said lockdown everything, the virus itself causes that when the people in charge let everything go willy nilly and just don't give a crap like Trump and some of these state governors. If everybody got infected in a place of business, including the owner, do you expect that business to remain open? Do you expect people to keep going their once that business has been infected? Nobody should want this virus like they shouldn't want the common flu. But by urging state and local leaders to pass mask mandates and keep enforcing social distancing would go a long way in reducing infection rates and packing the hospitals. It's not going to go away until their is a proper vaccine distributed to the public, that is obvious and even that is iffy at best, but it's another weapon against reducing the infections. All we have to do is mandate public heath measures, not completely shut things down. Again, the virus will do that by itself if we let it go free roam among us. You'll lose anyway.

 

Edited by Katniss
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Tatetopa

Optimism can be a wonderfully powerful motivator when coupled with planning and action.  It helps harness and focus the mind on the immediate task at hand and not paralyze effort by  worry about a negative outcome.  For a person with a sense of personal responsibility it is a performance enhancer.  You can still fail, but you have harnessed all of your resources and done your absolute best.  It is not for lazy people.

Optimism by itself is deceptive and the lazy person's way out.  For those who are not taking personal responsibility for outcomes in their life, it is a blindfold.  Do nothing, close your eyes, hope something miraculous will occur and let chance control your life. 

Then you never have to blame yourself for an imperfect effort and learn by it. One can always blame external  factors and the unfairness of life and never learn or improve.

 

To translate that into a course of action, you take personal responsibility and remember your obligations.  You wash your hands, you wear a mask, you look out for other people and yourself.  You stay the course, you don't weaken to stupidity or desire, or boredom.  Businesses adapt where they can.  People work at home.  People wear a mask when they are getting a haircut and the operator does as well. When your dog needs to go to the vet, you call ahead and make the handover at the office door.

You are not a coward if you are aware of changing situations and adapt your behavior to survive.  That is optimism used properly.

You are a fool if you deny all changes in the world around you and refuse to change your behavior.  That is optimism used to shift the blame from yourself to the cruelty of the world.

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TigerBright19

Looking on the bright side.

 

 

over1.png

 

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simplybill
7 hours ago, Still Waters said:

Because we believe that things will work out well even where there is little evidence to support this perspective, we tend to minimise risks, underestimate costs and ignore warning signs. We might misjudge our vulnerability to COVID-19, believing without justification that we are less likely to catch it.


The “We” have always existed. Here in the US, 480,000 people die from smoking-related causes every year. 

42% of the population is obese.

In 2019, 70,980 Americans died from drug overdose.

There will always be people who ignore the warnings, and for many people Covid will be no different. The entire world has been told what precautions to take against Covid, but as the article says, the ‘over-optimistic’ are going to ignore the precautions and put themselves at risk. 

The rest of us are ready to resume our lives, with the knowledge that the world is now a more dangerous place to live in than it was a year ago. If the over-optimistic want to ignore the precautions, then so be it, but it’s time to reopen the economy and get back to living our lives.

 

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Katniss
1 hour ago, simplybill said:


The “We” have always existed. Here in the US, 480,000 people die from smoking-related causes every year. 

42% of the population is obese.

In 2019, 70,980 Americans died from drug overdose.

There will always be people who ignore the warnings, and for many people Covid will be no different. The entire world has been told what precautions to take against Covid, but as the article says, the ‘over-optimistic’ are going to ignore the precautions and put themselves at risk. 

The rest of us are ready to resume our lives, with the knowledge that the world is now a more dangerous place to live in than it was a year ago. If the over-optimistic want to ignore the precautions, then so be it, but it’s time to reopen the economy and get back to living our lives.

 

Nobody in their right mind is going to let this virus have free rein and infect/or kill more people when it's unnecessary. All we are doing, in some states at least, is mandating public heath measures. No lockdowns, just quarantine. Because there is no sense in packing the hospitals to the point we have turn people away, just because people want to let the virus have at it. That's crazy talk if some people think we should just let this virus overrun us.

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simplybill
39 minutes ago, Katniss said:

Because there is no sense in packing the hospitals to the point we have turn people away

One of the reasons I’m beginning to doubt the statistics is because there’s been no urgency to build more hospitals. China built two hospitals in a matter of days, something that Europe and North America could have done, but didn’t. 

“The construction of the new facilities echoes the rapid completion of Beijing’s Xiaotangshan hospital in 2003. Built in a week, Xiaotangshan treated patients affected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).“
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/pictures-china-builds-two-hospitals-in-days-to-combat-coronavirus.html

Here in the US we’ve spent trillions of dollars to keep people home on unemployment benefits, but nothing at all for added capacity in the healthcare system. 

Last I heard, Sars-CoV-2 has at least six new mutations. It’s not going away anytime soon, so what are we waiting for? Why aren’t we preparing for the next wave, and the wave after that? 

Edited by simplybill
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Katniss
17 minutes ago, simplybill said:

One of the reasons I’m beginning to doubt the statistics is because there’s been no urgency to build more hospitals. China built two hospitals in a matter of days, something that Europe and North America could have done, but didn’t. 

“The construction of the new facilities echoes the rapid completion of Beijing’s Xiaotangshan hospital in 2003. Built in a week, Xiaotangshan treated patients affected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).“
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/pictures-china-builds-two-hospitals-in-days-to-combat-coronavirus.html

Here in the US we’ve spent trillions of dollars to keep people home on unemployment benefits, but nothing at all for added capacity in the healthcare system. 

Last I heard, Sars-CoV-2 has at least six new mutations. It’s not going away anytime soon, so what are we waiting for? Why aren’t we preparing for the next wave, and the wave after that? 

I guess you missed all the field hospitals and makeshift hospitals we've been making or adding through the year for extra capacity?

The Race to Build New Hospitals

New York Begins Construction on More Temporary Hospitals as Coronavirus Spreads

Photos: Coronavirus field hospitals across the US

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stereologist
27 minutes ago, simplybill said:

One of the reasons I’m doubting the statistics is because there’s been no urgency to build more hospitals. China built two hospitals in a matter of days, something that Europe and North America could have done, but didn’t. 

“The construction of the new facilities echoes the rapid completion of Beijing’s Xiaotangshan hospital in 2003. Built in a week, Xiaotangshan treated patients affected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).“
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/pictures-china-builds-two-hospitals-in-days-to-combat-coronavirus.html

Here in the US we’ve spent trillions of dollars to keep people home on unemployment benefits, but nothing at all for added capacity in the healthcare system. 

Last I heard, Sars-CoV-2 has at least six new mutations. It’s not going away anytime soon, so what are we we waiting for? Why aren’t we preparing for the next wave, and the wave after that? 

Sorry you didn't pay attention but a number of interim facilities were built.

 

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stereologist

The optimists will be those that invest in dialysis units and medical oxygen. They see the future of people that have damaged kidneys and damaged lungs.

They will be so happy that those cognizant of the dangers invested their money into exactly those places where the Trumpians ended up - sick but not dead.

Be optimistic and bank on the long term injuries of those ignorant of the effects of the virus. They'll bless you in the long run.

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simplybill
14 minutes ago, Katniss said:

I guess you missed all the field hospitals and makeshift hospitals we've been making or adding through the year for extra capacity?

 

And they all closed down because there were no patients to treat.

As hospitals were overrun by coronavirus patients in other parts of the world, the Army Corps of Engineers mobilized in the U.S., hiring private contractors to build emergency field hospitals around the country. The endeavor cost more than $660 million, according to an NPR analysis of federal spending records. But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven't treated a single patient.“

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients
 

 

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Michelle
41 minutes ago, simplybill said:

One of the reasons I’m beginning to doubt the statistics is because there’s been no urgency to build more hospitals. China built two hospitals in a matter of days, something that Europe and North America could have done, but didn’t. 

Many were set up in various places and not needed.

Although the number of new patients admitted to the hospitals started to slow in early April, Cuomo stated that social distancing protocols would continue to be enforced to prevent a rise in these figures that could overwhelm the strained healthcare system.[231] The USNS Comfort was originally intended to take non-COVID patients to ease the burden on city hospitals, but most New Yorkers remained isolated in their homes and non-COVID admissions decreased dramatically; the admission processes for patients who did present at the emergency room was cumbersome.[232] On April 21, when Cuomo told Trump that the Comfort was no longer needed, the ship had treated 179 patients.[233] Another field hospital, built in Brooklyn for $21 million during April, was closed the next month without ever seeing any patients.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_City#Hospitals

I know the two that opened in my city saw no patients. The hospitals canceled all elective surgeries and weren't overrun with Covid patients as expected. They had to temporarily lay off many staff members that weren't needed.

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simplybill
11 minutes ago, stereologist said:

The optimists will be those that invest in dialysis units and medical oxygen. They see the future of people that have damaged kidneys and damaged lungs.

They will be so happy that those cognizant of the dangers invested their money into exactly those places where the Trumpians ended up - sick but not dead.

Be optimistic and bank on the long term injuries of those ignorant of the effects of the virus. They'll bless you in the long run.

Who’s optimistic? I’m not. The world has become a more dangerous place to live in, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. We now need to live our lives with added precautions. I’m okay with that, and if someone wants to stay home, I’m okay with that too. I’m not going to force anyone to leave their home.

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stereologist
2 minutes ago, simplybill said:

Who’s optimistic? I’m not. The world has become a more dangerous place to live in, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. We now need to live our lives with added precautions. I’m okay with that, and if someone wants to stay home, I’m okay with that too. I’m not going to force anyone to leave their home.

I guess you missed the debate where that idiot president was once again pretending this virus was just going to go away. That moron has been saying that since April.

It's a more dangerous world. I wonder what happens if you get COVID-19 and it damages your organs and 4 months later you get it again and there is more organ damage and 4 months later more and so forth. I wonder if that will be the future?

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simplybill
12 minutes ago, stereologist said:

I guess you missed the debate where that idiot president was once again pretending this virus was just going to go away. That moron has been saying that since April.

It's a more dangerous world. I wonder what happens if you get COVID-19 and it damages your organs and 4 months later you get it again and there is more organ damage and 4 months later more and so forth. I wonder if that will be the future?

I understand, I really do. It’s a horrible way to die. But I’m not going to put my life on hold worrying about what might happen. I’ve always lived my life that way. I‘ll take precautions and keep going.

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Katniss
26 minutes ago, simplybill said:

And they all closed down because there were no patients to treat.

As hospitals were overrun by coronavirus patients in other parts of the world, the Army Corps of Engineers mobilized in the U.S., hiring private contractors to build emergency field hospitals around the country. The endeavor cost more than $660 million, according to an NPR analysis of federal spending records. But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven't treated a single patient.“

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients
 

 

Not closed down like you make it out to be. Most are still on stand by because it might get worse this fall/winter. Besides that the end of your linked article it says this;

Quote

 

Officials in other states such as Illinois and Michigan also said field hospitals can be quickly reopened if there's an increase in coronavirus cases.

"We really wanted to make sure that we were maintaining some of the physical infrastructure that has been built there. So that should we need it, it doesn't take us a long time to potentially turn that back on," said Allison Arwady, the public health commissioner in Chicago.

She said officials there are keeping a close eye on the number of COVID-19 patients in local hospitals.

"We watch it really closely every day," Arwady said. "And certainly if we start to see any direction that things are not going the right way, we stand ready in case that needs to be reassessed."

 

 

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simplybill
6 minutes ago, Katniss said:

Officials in other states such as Illinois and Michigan also said field hospitals can be quickly reopened if there's an increase in coronavirus cases.

They’re field hospitals, and they’re empty. Nothing permanent is being built. If Sars-CoV-2 is going to continue mutating and reappearing every year, then we should be building permanent facilities.

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Katniss
Just now, simplybill said:

They’re field hospitals, and they’re empty. Nothing permanent is being built. If Sars-CoV-2 is going to continue mutating and reappearing every year, then we should be building permanent facilities.

Why? When empty buildings and field hospitals can be retrofitted faster with hospital equipment to treat the sick and add extra capacity on the fly. Those makeshift hospitals are just as good and get treatment to patients faster than a new hospital can be built. The key is time and readiness to possibly save lives versus waiting on a new hospital to be built.

 

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simplybill
2 hours ago, Katniss said:

Why? When empty buildings and field hospitals can be retrofitted faster with hospital equipment to treat the sick and add extra capacity on the fly. Those makeshift hospitals are just as good and get treatment to patients faster than a new hospital can be built. The key is time and readiness to possibly save lives versus waiting on a new hospital to be built.

 

This is the point I made earlier:

“One of the reasons I’m beginning to doubt the statistics is because there’s been no urgency to build more hospitals.”

When the pandemic was at it’s peak, the media was constantly warning us that hospitals would be “overwhelmed”. We closed down the economy, people stayed home, and we learned the majority of fatalities were in the 75+ age category, where the fatality rate was increased by pressuring nursing homes to accept recovering Covid patients. That mistake was rectified, and the hospitals are returning to normal without the need for field hospitals. 

But what about the future? We have a novel virus, with a death rate that will be over and above the death rate that our hospitals have been dealing with from all causes of death, until now. It seems to me that at least New York, with the highest number of Covid fatalities, should be preparing for those additional fatalities by building a few new permanent facilities. Otherwise, it will appear that maybe the pandemic wasn’t as dangerous as it was originally made out to be.

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bee
6 hours ago, stereologist said:

I guess you missed the debate where that idiot president was once again pretending this virus was just going to go away. That moron has been saying that since April.


it will at some point - or at least go away as much as any other virus or influenza does..... that's how nature works with this kind of viral infection... (lockdowns or no lockdowns)....

.

Quote

It's a more dangerous world. I wonder what happens if you get COVID-19 and it damages your organs and 4 months later you get it again and there is more organ damage and 4 months later more and so forth. I wonder if that will be the future?

 

there are complications and potential organ damage with other viruses / flu...... getting overly  pessimistic about this coronavirus and fear mongering - isn't helping anyone... IMO

does the below sound familiar...? Yes - the 'new' coronavirus sounds just like regular flu... that we have always lived with and coped with..

CDC source

Quote

Most people who get flu will recover in a few days to less than two weeks, but some people will develop complications (such as pneumonia) as a result of flu, some of which can be life-threatening and result in death.

Sinus and ear infections are examples of moderate complications from flu, while pneumonia is a serious flu complication that can result from either influenza virus infection alone or from co-infection of flu virus and bacteria.

Other possible serious complications triggered by flu can include inflammation of the heart (myocarditis), brain (encephalitis) or muscle (myositis, rhabdomyolysis) tissues, and multi-organ failure (for example, respiratory and kidney failure). Flu virus infection of the respiratory tract can trigger an extreme inflammatory response in the body and can lead to sepsis, the body’s life-threatening response to infection. Flu also can make chronic medical problems worse. For example, people with asthma may experience asthma attacks while they have flu, and people with chronic heart disease may experience a worsening of this condition triggered by flu.

Edited by bee
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